This week, I posted the following hand on the blonde poker 'Poker Hand Analysis' board:
Environment: Live Game
Type: Multi-Table Double-Chance Freezeout
Players: 98
Buy-in: £1,000
Starting Chips: 7,500 + 7,500
Prize Pool: £98,000
Blinds: 25/50
Remaining Players: 98
We are still playing the first level of this tournament and the mood at the table is quite cagey.
History & Players
We are only 15 minutes into this event and therefore the information we have on our opponents is negligible. This is very different from the Vegas hand last time. In Vegas we were at the final table and had a fair idea about how our opponents played, but here we are completely in the dark.
Blue Cap: 7,500 & in the cut-off (was wearing a blue cap)
Mantis: 7,425 & in the sb
Ray-Ban: 7,450 & in the bb (was wearing...you get the picture)
The Hand
The action is folded around to Blue Cap who raises it to 250 from the cut-off. The button folds and when it reaches us in the sb we look down to see an attractive looking...
On this occasion we decide to call the additional 225 and Ray-Ban also completes the bet. So we go to the flop with 750 chips in the pot.
The Flop
We check at this time and so does Ray-Ban. Blue Cap fires out 500 into the middle. We call.
The Turn
The turn card falls and it is the
The board now reads
I dwell up for a second and then check to Blue-Cap. Blue-Cap starts taking his time and seems a bit indecisive about his bet. Finally he puts in 900 chips and the action is back to us. We call again.
The River
The river arrives and it is the
Making a board of
So the action is on me and I follow through with my plan to put in a bet. I aggressively jam in 2,750 chips and try to look a little nervy hoping he doesn't fold.
Blue-Cap thinks about it and then pushes ALL-IN.
The Response
The feedback was as follows:
boldie: "Now on the turn you've decided that you're ahead, what makes you lost now? You've decided you're ahead on the turn and the river (unless he has A-4 or pocket 4's..lol even 3-5 I guess) doesn't change anything. If you thought it was wise to bet out on the river it is wise to call here."
double up: "You've engineered yourself into a position that you are getting better than 3-1 that your opponent is a very poor player and is either value betting a worse hand or making a poorly timed bluff, so you have no option but to call."
RichEO: "I think you should definately check call the river (or check then maybe call). You have gotten this far by check calling. It's possible he is still on a complete bluff and you might as well let him try it again."
MANTIS01: "I suppose the crucial question about this hand for me was this. In spite of the marginal nature of my hand, rightly or wrongly I am confident I am ahead on the flop. In my mind I am still trapping on the turn. When it gets to the river I am thinking about how to extract the maximum out of my opponent. The sort of hands I am putting him on mean that he will only fold or call."
The Reveal
I actually called pretty quickly. My trappy play and playing possum act on the end lead me to believe my opponent had fell for the sting.
He tabled....
For the rivered full-house and I was calling for my second set of chips inside the first 15 minutes.
My reading of his actions were pretty good actually and I suppose I got unlucky on the river. If we put ourselves in Blue-Cap's shoes now that we know the result I think his actions fit his hand quite well.
He is first to enter the pot in the cut-off and he comes in for a standard raise. His position makes me more inclined to play the A-J at all because I know full well he doesn't need a big hand to raise from there. If there was an early limper before his raise I would fold. But as it is not many players enter first with a limp so late and this makes me inclined to give a little action here.
He probably doesn't want two callers with a weak ace but that's what he gets. Hitting the flop therefore must come as a bit of a relief to him and he fires off quite a strong first bullet...probably with the intention of taking the 750 in the pot with the minimum of fuss. I sensed this and wanted to stick around with my A-J.
Of course when the second ace hits the turn he relaxes a bit. It is far less likely I have an ace myself now...maybe I have suited connectors like 7-8. I called the flop with second pair and check again because I haven't improved. He knows nothing about me so this is plausible. Now he bets half the pot...a much more relaxed bet...I felt that this was much more enticing that the flop bet and at this point I think he has a weaker ace than me.
I fire out on the river to make him think I am trying to wrestle the pot from him with maybe an unimproved 7 or bigger pair and expect the call. Of course for Blue-Cap he has hit the miracle card and his push is pretty standard.
Could a really good player have layed down the A-J here? Not really sure....because could a really bad opponent have pushed with A-10? Knowing your players is a useful bit of additional information!!
So was on my second set of chips almost immediately but eventually went to the final table in this tournament...so hey who needs that first set anyway...lol!
A very interesting and controversial hand again so thanks to everyone who took the time to contribute.