This week, I posted the following hand on the blonde poker 'Poker Hand Analysis' board:
UTG: He got slowrolled about 15 hands previous by the button in this hand, and his actions so far afterwards indicate he is likely on tilt, making overbets, raising and re-raising, and generally splashing in pots chasing the long shots. Typically he is quite a good player, but has a short fuse, and has let the button know in great detail what his opinion of him is, via the chat box. Stack: $1,140
Cutoff: Hes only been at the table for 20ish hands, and his stack has gone from the $1k buy-in, down to about $890, up to $950 again, and he didn’t reload once. Hasn’t done anything out of line, so no real 'reads' apart from the lack of reloading. Stack: $950
Button : He luckboxed a gutshot on the river against UTG, and then slowrolled him, he has been playing quite bad, definitely a caller more then a raiser, passive and seemingly likes to gamble. Stack: $2,400
SB: Hero, been playing quite standard, 3-betting quite religiously but you have been a lot more passive post-flop with your draws then is typical. Stack: $1,620
Onto the Action…
UTG bombs it up to $50, Cutoff calls, Button calls, Hero finds ...
Action, you called, and BB folds.
Flop comes down , and the action is on you.
Action: Hero checked (pot $210), UTG fired in a $190 bet, Cutoff folds, Button timed down for a while before just calling, and then the action came back to hero:
Action: Hero just called
Turn was the Jack of clubs, to give a board of (pot $780)… action is on you:
Action: Hero bets $225, UTG amazingly folds, and the button min-raises to $450
Remaining stack sizes are hero with just under $1k, the button covers, and the pot is $1,455:
Action was you just called the minraise
River was the , making a final board of (pot $1,680) and the action is on you:
Action: You checked, and villain again times down before betting $400.
We were flooded with responses this week:
Alex Martin: "In terms of long-term equity, I think ship has the best results. He obviously has a big hand, you just have to hope he has folding issues."
TightEnd: "I like the check on the river from you here. Given you have telegraphed your hand all the way through like Telly Telegraph winner of last year's Mr Telegraph of the Year competition, at least it introduces a bit more confusion to him than a mere value bet. He bets, he must think he's value betting, hopefully not with Ah-Kh. I think I have him on K-Q actually judging from a turn mini raise. I ship it in now, and trust he has enough, both in terms of a hand and in terms of curiosity to call."
Flea: "Definitely ship it and hope for a call, if he does have 2 hearts with 1 higher than yours then that's just real bad luck. In this situation, ev for shipping must be quite high compared to any other action."
Boldie: "You have to get your chips in here I think - folding is once again disgraceful and flat-calling is bordering on cowardice."
byronkincaid: "I call".
I pushed it in, he called with T-J, and I scooped the pot.
The reason why i thought it was an interesting hand is because it explores the area that it's ok to play exploitable poker, when your opponents don't have the necessary skills to exploit you. The whole reason why we randomize our play is so that our opponents don't get a line on what hand we have at any given moment, but when our opponents have displayed that they aren't that likely to be able to put us on a hand anyways, mixing up our lines doesn't become as important as it would be against good solid players.
Another area it explores is one of the concept of maximizing profit against a certain type of player/table... in spots like this it's close to impossible to play the hand wrong, but there's always a way to maximise the amount of money you can make on a hand, given your reads on the table, and I felt it was likely that the bet and call on the flop meant that my fold equity was minimal, and whilst pushing is definitely a profitable play, at the time i felt it likely (given the reads in the OP/flop action) I'd get full action on my stack if I hit anyways, and they weren't folding, so calling and waiting til I hit would make me more money in the long run, as I'd figure to make the same if I hit, but lose less when it misses.
Remember that all this is based on the dynamic/players at the table in this particular spot, it's not a profitable line against people that can read hands/situations well, but having the artillery to try and identify profitable lines dependant on the players/the action/the table dynamics at any given time is an essential part of a poker player's arsenal, and thats what I wanted to explore in this week's HotW