This week, I posted the following hand on the blonde poker 'Poker Hand Analysis' board:
Environment: On-Line Game
Type: Multi-Table Tournament
Starting Chips: 3,000
Prize Pool: £48,200
Blinds: 300/600-$50 ante
Remaining Players: 65
Average Chips: 22,246
It is at that stage in a tournament when very few flops are being seen. Raises are generally taking down the blinds and antes uncontested. Occasionally raises have been met with short-stack all-in re-raises as they battle to survive or when two big hands collide in pair vs. pair or coin-flip situations. So the first question is.
History & Players
We came to the table just over an hour ago and have been completely and utterly card-dead during this time. No pairs, no face-cards, no aces, no nothing. We have made a couple of unsuccessful steal attempts but have been met with resistance and have had to let go. This dire period has seen our stack deplete from around 49k to a still healthy 42k, but each round costs 1,400.
Our opponent in this hand is Asprilla29 on the BB who hasn't shown any willingness to defend his blind so far and has been a rather passive player.
Mantis: 42,200 & in the cut-off
Asprilla29: 39,500 & in the BB
Still no hands and it is folded around to us in the cut-off
We look down to see yet another inspiring holding in...
... and decide to raise it up to 2.2k.
The button folds, the SB folds and Asprilla29 calls in the BB.
So we go to the flop with 5,200 chips in the pot.
The flop comes down
Asprilla29 puts out a bet of 2,500.
I decide to raise to 7,500
Asprilla29 uses his time bank to think things through and then flat-calls the re-raise.
We go to the turn with 20,200 chips in the pot and a stack of 32,500.
kinboshi: "In a cash game, I love this hand. In a tournament, it's one of those hands that either sets you up nicely, or decimates your stack. Interested to see the different opinions on how to play it. Interesting hand."
AllInKev: I'm putting him on 4-4 here. He put out a little bet after that flop and it seems that he wants action. As you say, he also hasn't played many hands either, so he isn't going to be donking his chips off with nothing so IMO the worst hand he has would be QK. But then he could have Ks-Qs and have a pretty monster draw himself and if that is the case, you are in serious trouble. Like has been said, you give him 3:1 to call, so making it at least 10k, maybe 12.5K would be a better raise."
Asprilla29 called the re-raise oop on a dangerous drawing board and we headed to the turn.
The turn card was...
And we now have a board of
Asprilla29 checks to you...
The pot is over 30k but you still have an average stack behind and any further bet commits you to this pot.
Bongo: "If you're not a big favourite then taking the pot down now can be worth more than the extra they put in to the pot. It can also simplify the decision making and stop you from making a mistake later on in the hand."
TightEnd: "Offering him competetive odds to call the re-raise can be classified as a mistake because your tournament life (potentially here if you miss) is a factor, as of course is getting monster chips so they play off each other but the former can be a factor... you are favourite but you need to hit."
I decide to check behind Asprilla29 and see a river for free and it is...
Making a board
This completes an unlikely hand of two pairs.
Asprilla29 thinks for a moment and then moves all-in for 29,800.
The pot now has exactly 50k in it and it will cost you 29,800 of your remaining 32,500 to call...so basically everything.
Flea: "I hate that river card, it's given you just enough to make any decision hard. In all honesty I'd probably call but I think the right play may well be the fold as other than completely over-playing A-Q or a hand like Pocket Jacks, Tens or Kings I fear the opponent has a set - the way he's played doesn't feel like someone playing a holding that has just made the straight. Only other possibility is he's bluffing a busted flush draw but that's probably less likely."
Asprilla29 moved all-in and I called quite quickly. When he called my flop re-raise I thought he had a hand like and the all-in certainly looked like a busted draw to me. Checking on the turn had set me up for this sort of move and so I was half expecting it.
Unfortunately Asprilla29 tabled...
Which was indeed a busted flush draw that had just rivered a straight.
Thanks to all those who contributed.