Tips for Tikay

[scotty2hatty]

Would like to suggest a couple of selections for the Eclipse greyhound competition that is currently taking place at Nottingham. Two of the three selections I popped in the greyhounds thread have made it to the semi-finals and I now think we should back them for the competition.

The first of those is Sawpit Sensation who was 8/1 pre-comp but is now 12/1 with Totesport/Betfred. I don't fully understand the drift and thus think he is a must bet.

Finished 2nd in his first round heat behind the pacey Exocet but Exocet got a clear run and in the better races (semis and finals) I think the pacey unseeded types tend to take a lot of each others room so finding a good wide seed is always handy.  Sawpit, a wide, tends to come from off the pace a little but also has the odd good break on his record.

Sawpit is the defending champion, having won last year after finishing 2nd in his first round heat and his semi-final. He is also a Notts specialist, holding the 500m (Eclipse distance) track record, a record he set in the final last year. He ran a similar time in the opening round this year that he did in the opening round last year so potentially we will get similar progress.

In his semi-final, he needs to finish in the top 2 to progress to the final and I expect him to follow round whoever leads (Calzaghe Davy and/or Jaytee Lightning) before either winning or finishing a close second. With the each way terms on offer we'd then have 3/1 he finishes in the top 3 of the final with a real strong chance of the 12/1 landing.

The second selection is Airlie Impact who is 25/1 with 365, and Tote/BetFred.

One of my favourite greyhounds of the year and a great competition dog (well he enters a lot!) who runs many tracks well and is very consistent. Think a small bet at the price is in order as I think he has a good chance of qualifying from his semi with the inconsistent Bridge Honcho on his direct left in T5 and a battle between Redbrick Stuart and Bold Three on the inner likely.

Definitely in good form, Airlie also has a number of very good sectionals on his record from Notts. Some of his trial work at Notts is as fast as anything in the first round.

Recommend £15EW Sawpit Sensation @ 12/1
Recommend £7.50EW Airlie Impact @ 25/1

[Snowball]

Does Pogba every score a tap in, every goal seems better than his last.
Man u will be kicking themself for letting him leave.

[JaffaCake]

NBA don't half get a bad time on this thread....only £50 to go and golf can get the same treatment as the biggest loser and north of £1k down etc etc. Think some of the staking in those days left a little to be desired, as did the betting for value process.

Just double checked out MCW Rookie of the Year bet and we only got £5 on at 12/1, original rec was £10 at 14/1, my fault, shoulda revisited as promised once the price went back to 14s and 16s and I defo really fancied it the week before the season when 14s was still about, as I mentioned at the dogs (and wrote on BettingOn.com, too scared to post link to it this season). Current price? 8/13....mind u we've lost from here before, sigh.

Tiddle-arsing £5 at 12s will at least stop your north of £1000 line I spose!

[redarmi]

NBA don't half get a bad time on this thread....only £50 to go and golf can get the same treatment as the biggest loser and north of £1k down etc etc. Think some of the staking in those days left a little to be desired, as did the betting for value process.

Just double checked out MCW Rookie of the Year bet and we only got £5 on at 12/1, original rec was £10 at 14/1, my fault, shoulda revisited as promised once the price went back to 14s and 16s and I defo really fancied it the week before the season when 14s was still about, as I mentioned at the dogs (and wrote on BettingOn.com, too scared to post link to it this season). Current price? 8/13....mind u we've lost from here before, sigh.

Tiddle-arsing £5 at 12s will at least stop your north of £1000 line I spose!

I tend to agree.  I don't think it is anything specific about the sport per se that means we won't beat it and there is absolutely no reason for NBA lines to be sharper than NFL or football numbers for example.  It was just that we during that period we didn't apply as rigorous value criteria as we do now.  There are some good spots in the NBA the same as any sport and you can run bad in any sport and it doesn't really mean anything.  I will give you an example.  Over the last 2.5 months I have made just under 3% on my own betting over 850ish bets.  My main sports in that time have been MLB, college football, NFL, football and NBA.  In one of those sports I have had over 200 bets and am holding 18% yet in another I have had over 250 bets and am losing 11%.  I happen to consider the latter sport my strongest sport.  Should I be worried?  Possibly.  Maybe my own perception and overconfidence is forcing me into having too many bets but irrespective I have clearly run horrifically badly.  If I gave up on the sport I could easily be giving up a source of income which makes no sense so I just have to tough it out.  You absolutely have to keep records and you absolutely have to review them but to make big decisions based on fairly small sample sizes is, imo, a mistake.  We have a big enough Fred sample now to know when we are likely to have an edge and when is the time to fire and when not to and I am not sure a small sport sample should affect or change that.  In the long run these things tend to even themselves out.

[redarmi]

Think this Dallas game is a great example of where you can get an edge in running.  The first couple of drives have shown that New Orleans are going to double team Dez Bryant and, given that Miles Austin is out too they are going to be forced to either run the ball a lot more than usual or go to Tight End Jason Witten or lesser receivers.  I loved overs in the game prematch but now I like unders based on what I have seen.

[redarmi]

Now there has been a weird overreaction.  The game has already gone over the 1q total with 3 minutes remaining in the quarter yet the total is lower than pregame.  Confused.com

[BigAdz]

Feels like TFT is suffering a large NFL hangover?

[tikay]

Feels like TFT is suffering a large NFL hangover?

Am a bit busy this morning, ditto tomorrow, but fortunately, no hangover here.

Pleased to bank a nice winner last night though, God bless Reggie. 

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £494.61

Outstanding Bets £2698.66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32

A loss of £7 yesterday, with Reggie Bush going over 100y for the Lions at the Bears for +£40 offset by Casey in the Golf, Pozuelo not scoring first at Swansea and two small losing Titans first touchdown scorer bets. Sadly my Ravens selection was obfuscated by talk of complicated teasers and was not placed. BE went 4 out of 5 too but the situation for the Thread has changed there, so a winning Sunday it was not to be

Rounding up all the action in our bets, yesterday

Sunderland's victory over Manchester City has to be good news for our chances of Palace finishing bottom, and Arsenal finishing top 3. Though of course Arsenal losing at Old Trafford wasn't

No assist for Santi Cazorla, no playing time for Amat and Paulinho won't be scoring 7 goals if he doesn't cross the half way line, but on the upside no goals for Aguero in the race for Premier League top scorer

In Serie A Napoli suffered a setback, thumped by Juventus

In La Liga Villareal drew with Ath Madrid, not a bad result and Bilbao beat Levante. Villareal and Bilbao are 10 and 11 points respectively behind Athletico Madrid in the La Liga table, so we have a way to go to make up that gap

In the NFL, not unexpectedly the Bengals, injury riddled and going to a divisional rival fired up and needing the win struggled. They almost got out of a pathetic performance by Andy Dalton with a tipped hail mary to tie and take the game into overtime but for the second game in a row they came up short. They still lead the division, but its closer than it was

The Titans scored 27 points in losing to the Jaguars. 27 is ok, but not really what were were looking for. We need o375 points for the season and after 9 of 16 games they have scored 200 points, So we need 175 in 7 games or 25 points a game from here on out. We are on schedule, but its going to be close. The Titans are at Indy on Sky on Thursday night

The Broncos beat the chargers to go 8-1. We have a humdinger of a few weeks ahead for the Kansas City Bet as they face the Broncos twice in three weeks. Split those two games and our 7-1 AFC West bet is very live. I reckon this week at Denver the Chiefs might be, as an unbeaten side, 7 point underdogs, which would be unusual to say the least

The Eagles are now 5-5 in a historically poor NFC East after beating the Quarterback hamstrung Packers. Now co-leaders of the division and in some offensive form, they might hit the play offs and give our Superbowl bet, placed in haste, a chance. Loomks like any NFC team though will have to go through Seatle, 9-1 and almost invincible at home

Quarterbacks bet...

Brees diced up the Cowboys and handed them their backsides on a plate for breakfast last night. Atlanta and Matt Ryan are struggling, Stafford had a respectable game at Chicago

1   Peyton Manning, QB   DEN   3,249   
2   Drew Brees, QB NO   3,064   
3   Andy Dalton, QB CIN 2,861   
4   Matthew Stafford, QB DET 2,836   
------------------------------------------
5   Philip Rivers, QB SD   2,691   
6   Tony Romo, QB DAL 2,681   
7   Matt Ryan, QB   ATL   2,614    

Last night's Dallas capitualtion was good news as Romo slipped down and is on a bye this week. Dalton is still to have his bye so all in all we have chances. Manning looked very gimpy late last night, and has the best defense in the league twice now. We have a chance of a scoop with Brees.

 

[Karabiner]

I do love a bit of obfuscation on a Monday morning.

[horseplayer]

The yellow submarine were excellent against ath

As i keep saying would have snapped anybodys hand of for those point totals for those two at this stage of the season

[sonour]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £494.61

Outstanding Bets £2698.66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32

A loss of £7 yesterday, with Reggie Bush going over 100y for the Lions at the Bears for +£40 offset by Casey in the Golf, Pozuelo not scoring first at Swansea and two small losing Titans first touchdown scorer bets. Sadly my Ravens selection was obfuscated by talk of complicated teasers and was not placed. BE went 4 out of 5 too but the situation for the Thread has changed there, so a winning Sunday it was not to be

Rounding up all the action in our bets, yesterday

Sunderland's victory over Manchester City has to be good news for our chances of Palace finishing bottom, and Arsenal finishing top 3. Though of course Arsenal losing at Old Trafford wasn't

No assist for Santi Cazorla, no playing time for Amat and Paulinho won't be scoring 7 goals if he doesn't cross the half way line, but on the upside no goals for Aguero in the race for Premier League top scorer

In Serie A Napoli suffered a setback, thumped by Juventus

In La Liga Villareal drew with Ath Madrid, not a bad result and Bilbao beat Levante. Villareal and Bilbao are 10 and 11 points respectively behind Athletico Madrid in the La Liga table, so we have a way to go to make up that gap

In the NFL, not unexpectedly the Bengals, injury riddled and going to a divisional rival fired up and needing the win struggled. They almost got out of a pathetic performance by Andy Dalton with a tipped hail mary to tie and take the game into overtime but for the second game in a row they came up short. They still lead the division, but its closer than it was

The Titans scored 27 points in losing to the Jaguars. 27 is ok, but not really what were were looking for. We need o375 points for the season and after 9 of 16 games they have scored 200 points, So we need 175 in 7 games or 25 points a game from here on out. We are on schedule, but its going to be close. The Titans are at Indy on Sky on Thursday night

The Broncos beat the chargers to go 8-1. We have a humdinger of a few weeks ahead for the Kansas City Bet as they face the Broncos twice in three weeks. Split those two games and our 7-1 AFC West bet is very live. I reckon this week at Denver the Chiefs might be, as an unbeaten side, 7 point underdogs, which would be unusual to say the least

The Eagles are now 5-5 in a historically poor NFC East after beating the Quarterback hamstrung Packers. Now co-leaders of the division and in some offensive form, they might hit the play offs and give our Superbowl bet, placed in haste, a chance. Loomks like any NFC team though will have to go through Seatle, 9-1 and almost invincible at home

Quarterbacks bet...

Brees diced up the Cowboys and handed them their backsides on a plate for breakfast last night. Atlanta and Matt Ryan are struggling, Stafford had a respectable game at Chicago

1   Peyton Manning, QB   DEN   3,249   
2   Drew Brees, QB NO   3,064   
3   Andy Dalton, QB CIN 2,861   
4   Matthew Stafford, QB DET 2,836   
------------------------------------------
5   Philip Rivers, QB SD   2,691   
6   Tony Romo, QB DAL 2,681   
7   Matt Ryan, QB   ATL   2,614    

Last night's Dallas capitualtion was good news as Romo slipped down and is on a bye this week. Dalton is still to have his bye so all in all we have chances. Manning looked very gimpy late last night, and has the best defense in the league twice now. We have a chance of a scoop with Brees.

 

The 'complicated' Teaser is 3 out of 3 with one to play early Tuesday morning.

[tikay]

Would like to suggest a couple of selections for the Eclipse greyhound competition that is currently taking place at Nottingham. Two of the three selections I popped in the greyhounds thread have made it to the semi-finals and I now think we should back them for the competition.

The first of those is Sawpit Sensation who was 8/1 pre-comp but is now 12/1 with Totesport/Betfred. I don't fully understand the drift and thus think he is a must bet.

Finished 2nd in his first round heat behind the pacey Exocet but Exocet got a clear run and in the better races (semis and finals) I think the pacey unseeded types tend to take a lot of each others room so finding a good wide seed is always handy.  Sawpit, a wide, tends to come from off the pace a little but also has the odd good break on his record.

Sawpit is the defending champion, having won last year after finishing 2nd in his first round heat and his semi-final. He is also a Notts specialist, holding the 500m (Eclipse distance) track record, a record he set in the final last year. He ran a similar time in the opening round this year that he did in the opening round last year so potentially we will get similar progress.

In his semi-final, he needs to finish in the top 2 to progress to the final and I expect him to follow round whoever leads (Calzaghe Davy and/or Jaytee Lightning) before either winning or finishing a close second. With the each way terms on offer we'd then have 3/1 he finishes in the top 3 of the final with a real strong chance of the 12/1 landing.

The second selection is Airlie Impact who is 25/1 with 365, and Tote/BetFred.

One of my favourite greyhounds of the year and a great competition dog (well he enters a lot!) who runs many tracks well and is very consistent. Think a small bet at the price is in order as I think he has a good chance of qualifying from his semi with the inconsistent Bridge Honcho on his direct left in T5 and a battle between Redbrick Stuart and Bold Three on the inner likely.

Definitely in good form, Airlie also has a number of very good sectionals on his record from Notts. Some of his trial work at Notts is as fast as anything in the first round.

Recommend £15EW Sawpit Sensation @ 12/1
Recommend £7.50EW Airlie Impact @ 25/1

Thanks Scott, just seen this, but I got the prices, so no harm done, & they look two lovely bets at the prices.

When is the next round, please? Be good to sweat these properly.

Thanks again.

2 BETS PLACED

[tikay]

My NFL Column this week talks about the Bengals. We are well placed, but there are clouds on the horizon due to injuries

"Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Every team is dealing with injuries at this point in the season, but the Bengals have been hit with huge injury problems.

All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins went down with a season-ending ACL injury last week to become the fourth defensive starter (along with No. 1 corner Leon Hall, safety Taylor Mays and Defensive End Robert Geathers) to land on the Injured Reserve. Starting middle linebacker Rey Maualuga and Andy Dalton’s blind-side Andrew Whitworth missed last week’s game and will both probably be on the sidelines again this Sunday when the Bengals visit the Ravens.

That said, the Bengals are in a relatively comfortable place in the AFC North standings. They’re 6-3, and the rest of the division — Browns (4-5), Ravens (3-5) and Steelers (2-6) — is a mess. However, a loss on Sunday might open the door for Baltimore to sneak back into the race, especially with a second Bengals/Ravens game on the last game of the season.

The biggest thing working against that potential Ravens revival? They’re just not that good this season. Their biggest issue is the running game which  has resulted in Baltimore averaging a league-low 2.78 yards a carry this year However all the indications are that Ray Rice is finally healthy and ready to have a far more effective second half of the season. With Atkins missing, the stars are aligned for this to begin on Sunday

To see the Ravens priced as 2 point underdogs on the spread to a Bengals team so beat up is an opportunity. The Ravens need to win badly, they are at home and the spread offered reflects the risks"

http://www.betpal.com/nfl-week-ten-betting-preview

Tighty - this is the bet I missed, which you mentioned in today's comprehensive War & Peace style Update. (Jeez, how do you manage all that, & still make it full of dry humour?)

I have to speed-read stuff, & never realised it was a Recommend. Sometimes you just put stuff up for discussion (& Lord Misclick here promptly pre-ejaculates).

If you can just add "Recommend £xx @ (price)", I'm less likely to miss them.

Bit of a bugger that, it pains me to miss these, sorry. 

[tikay]

NBA don't half get a bad time on this thread....only £50 to go and golf can get the same treatment as the biggest loser and north of £1k down etc etc. Think some of the staking in those days left a little to be desired, as did the betting for value process.

Just double checked out MCW Rookie of the Year bet and we only got £5 on at 12/1, original rec was £10 at 14/1, my fault, shoulda revisited as promised once the price went back to 14s and 16s and I defo really fancied it the week before the season when 14s was still about, as I mentioned at the dogs (and wrote on BettingOn.com, too scared to post link to it this season). Current price? 8/13....mind u we've lost from here before, sigh.

Tiddle-arsing £5 at 12s will at least stop your north of £1000 line I spose!

Hi UK Poker Ranked  # 282,

I only partly agree with that. It's not NBA as such, but we have 2 sports which are far & away our worst 2 Sports, NBA & Golf. I'll discuss that further in my reply to redarmi, but I'm not going to be a thumb-sucker with numbers like that, something needs to be done, & that is not to keep digging. It would not matter what the sport was, big minus numbers like that deserve attention. Nobody in their right mind would or could just ignore those numbers, some adjustments are required, I'm not into chucking good money after bad. I've never got arsey with anyone, & I deffo accepted some bad bets from the wrong people, but I think all of us have learned from that.

Note I have never placed the blame on anyone's shoulders except mine, I get the final yes or no, & I took them all. We did most of it in the first 6 months of Fred, & I was far more naive then as to betting matters, & who to trust or not, & the concept of value.

I think I did get the staking wrong, far too much on occasion, & I never understood the value concept as well as I do now. I'm less shy of saying "no" now, too, as I did several times this weekend.

Again, & I've said this several times, for now, until we get a proper handle on it, I am far far happier doing the Rookie & MVP style bets, which have been much better for us.

I'll reply, more as to stats, to redarmi shortly, too, hope you'll read that, too.

The tiddlearse MCW Rookie thing was because I could not get on with Stan James, so some kindly soul allowed me £5 of their allocation, I could not really complain at that.

Best Regards, UK Poker Ranked # 280.