Tips for Tikay

[Karabiner]

A very happy St.Totteringham's Day to one an all.

[JaffaCake]

Red/Argue....how do u decide what's bes, 10/11 at one total or evens at a point higher or whatever. Is there proper maths behind it or is it a feel thing? Same for if say we can back a horse at 16/1 ew with 4 places or 14/1 ew with 5 places (or whatever).

Is that a question best asked on the maths thread?

The NBA are fairly easy to work out.  Each individual point is likely to land a certain amount of time so has a value.  In the NBA for a regular pointspread most half points are worth about 0.05 in decimals.  So-3 2.0 is about the same as -3.5 2.05.  They differ slightly as some pointspreads are more likely to fall and I have charts for them but as a rule 0.05 is fine.

As for horseracing places - feel is better.  There is some very heavy academic work on how likely a horse is to place and nobody has "solved" it as such but if you look at enough of them you get a reasonably good feel.  An okay rule of thumb is if you turn the prices into percentages so in the case you said.  The place price at 14/1 is 7/2 (14/4) or 22.22% for 5 places.  For 4 places it is 4/1 (16/4) or 20%so they are effectively they are saying there is a 2.22% chance of your horse coming 5th (22.22%-20%) which is about a 45/1 shot so ask yourself would I back this horse to come fifth at 45/1?  That sounds like value to me so I would take the extra place and even if I only thought it was fair value I would take it because the extra place reduces my variance.  Does that make sense?

Thanks reds, the NBA stuff defo does, hoped there'd be a poker style 'just add 4% per out on the flop' style method. Thanks to Doobs for subsequent horse answer too, have moved Q to maths thread as per tikay's request. Thanks for taking the time to explain, gonna copy n paste to keep, look forward to a pint or two in Notts if you're with argueboy, we drank the bar dry last time lol

[JaffaCake]

Abs boks....halftime in the Mavs Spurs game and overs has no chance, Dallas got 36 at halftime, lowest for a goodly while. Sigh

[GreekWay]

Abs boks....halftime in the Mavs Spurs game and overs has no chance, Dallas got 36 at halftime, lowest for a goodly while. Sigh

Nowitzki 2/7 Ellis 2/8...Terrible...

Can't believe that a NBA team scored 36 points in 24 minutes. Embarassing.

Both have missed many easy shots. Miracle required.

Sigh...

[JaffaCake]

Gotta sweat...overtime one tiiiiime. Might need double OT tbf like!

[GreekWay]

Gotta sweat...overtime one tiiiiime. Might need double OT tbf like!

Overtime was close... Ellis even closer but couldn't tie the game...

Unlucky...

[arbboy]

Apart from losing the total in the spurs game last night's NBA results were perfect for the ante post position.  The Heat wrapped up a 4-0 sweep of their first round series and should now have their feet up for at least a week to prepare for the 2nd round.  They were currently 2/7 to win the east (we have them in a £50 double to reach the final with the spurs).  The spurs won to level the series with 2-2 with Dallas and regain home court advantage with game 5 and 7 at the spurs home court.  As well as the name the finalist double we have them to win the west and NBA outright.  The third game last night was the Pacers losing to go 3-2 down.  They were the serious rival to the Heat in the East on paper hence why the Heat are now so short.

OKC play tonight at home in game 5 of their series which is tied at 2-2.  Brooklyn are also tied at 2-2 and play their game 5 tomorrow night.

[tikay]

Apart from losing the total in the spurs game last night's NBA results were perfect for the ante post position.  The Heat wrapped up a 4-0 sweep of their first round series and should now have their feet up for at least a week to prepare for the 2nd round.  They were currently 2/7 to win the east (we have them in a £50 double to reach the final with the spurs).  The spurs won to level the series with 2-2 with Dallas and regain home court advantage with game 5 and 7 at the spurs home court.  As well as the name the finalist double we have them to win the west and NBA outright.  The third game last night was the Pacers losing to go 3-2 down.  They were the serious rival to the Heat in the East on paper hence why the Heat are now so short.

OKC play tonight at home in game 5 of their series which is tied at 2-2.  Brooklyn are also tied at 2-2 and play their game 5 tomorrow night.

Good work, we could hardly be better placed, really.

[arbboy]

I will definitely start to get more involved. Its a good fun to talk about betting and potential selections.

This thread is full of both experts and great characters.

I wish I get a chance sometime to meet some of you fellas.

Several of us will be at dtd next weekend for the £1m Stars event if you want to come along for a beer or two.  Me, Jaffa and Red already confirmed. Sure numerous others will also be attending. Trying to get a fun cash game for the TFT thread organised for the weekend as well if you.  Would be good to meet you greek.

[arbboy]

Apart from losing the total in the spurs game last night's NBA results were perfect for the ante post position.  The Heat wrapped up a 4-0 sweep of their first round series and should now have their feet up for at least a week to prepare for the 2nd round.  They were currently 2/7 to win the east (we have them in a £50 double to reach the final with the spurs).  The spurs won to level the series with 2-2 with Dallas and regain home court advantage with game 5 and 7 at the spurs home court.  As well as the name the finalist double we have them to win the west and NBA outright.  The third game last night was the Pacers losing to go 3-2 down.  They were the serious rival to the Heat in the East on paper hence why the Heat are now so short.

OKC play tonight at home in game 5 of their series which is tied at 2-2.  Brooklyn are also tied at 2-2 and play their game 5 tomorrow night.

Good work, we could hardly be better placed, really.

We could!!!  Sure me and Jaffa were not expecting Spurs and OKC to both be tied 2-2 at this stage.  I was pretty confident the spurs would be at least 3-1 up at this stage.  The race row at the Clippers could really help OKC's chance's as they are seeded to play them in the 2nd round and OKC will be a much bigger fav to beat Golden State should they beat the Clippers in round one than if they faced the Clippers.

[tikay]

Apart from losing the total in the spurs game last night's NBA results were perfect for the ante post position.  The Heat wrapped up a 4-0 sweep of their first round series and should now have their feet up for at least a week to prepare for the 2nd round.  They were currently 2/7 to win the east (we have them in a £50 double to reach the final with the spurs).  The spurs won to level the series with 2-2 with Dallas and regain home court advantage with game 5 and 7 at the spurs home court.  As well as the name the finalist double we have them to win the west and NBA outright.  The third game last night was the Pacers losing to go 3-2 down.  They were the serious rival to the Heat in the East on paper hence why the Heat are now so short.

OKC play tonight at home in game 5 of their series which is tied at 2-2.  Brooklyn are also tied at 2-2 and play their game 5 tomorrow night.

Good work, we could hardly be better placed, really.

We could!!!  Sure me and Jaffa were not expecting Spurs and OKC to both be tied 2-2 at this stage.  I was pretty confident the spurs would be at least 3-1 up at this stage.  The race row at the Clippers could really help OKC's chance's as they are seeded to play them in the 2nd round and OKC will be a much bigger fav to beat Golden State should they beat the Clippers in round one than if they faced the Clippers.

Don't be greedy!

[arbboy]

Redarmi discussed yday about backing Golden State tonight against the Clippers. They are currently a 6 point underdog on the road to the Clippers for tonight's game 5.  Think this should be discussed in more detail today as an investment should probably be made.  This race row is such a one off situation its really hard to know how much the prices should adjust for it.  It's just so hard to even imagine being in the position the Clippers' coach and players are currently and how they could ever be motivated to play and win a game that would make their racist owner richer.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £2.38

Outstanding Bets £3784.27

Free bets £10 William Hll, £25 Betfred

The usual outstanding admin

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

Two bets yesterday, two losers and a £50 loss

* The worst team in the world, ever, lost 3-0 at Arsenal -£25







* The Spurs-Mavs game went substantially under the points spread -£25

For longer term positions

- Newcastle can still be caught by Palace for the top half, and Palace have two teams to shoot out. Just Liverpool to beat to make it happen

- Arsenal can still finish top 3. Unlikely, but the red ink is staved off for now

- Delbonnis won in the ATP BMW Tennis to advance for our tournament bet

- In Snooker Robertson plays Trump in the Quarters at the crucible today in what should be a good one. Robertson is on 99 centuries for the season after missing a black to get it out of the way yesterday. Robertson 4/7 for the quarter final



- In basketball as we have heard the Miami Heat are through, the Spurs tied up with the Mavs 2-2 and for the Heat Lebron James with just the 31pts, 9ast, 7reb; last night

Click to see full-size image.

- In cricket yesterday one of our season batsmen finally came to the party as Wayne Madsen struck an unbeaten 122* out of Derbyshire's total of just over 200 on a green one in Worcester

Click to see full-size image.

Tonight, huge tension for the Hornets (possibly) but certainly for the thread as Charlton meet Watford at the Valley. This is Watford's long awaited game in hand, where of course their superb metronomic consistency will no doubt come into play and avoid us haivng a big sweat on Saturday.

Bayern meet Real.....

Baltimore, the Royals and the Yankees are all back in action

LVCC Cricket continues


Finally, If you bet a Tottenham fan £20 in 1995 that Arsenal will finish above Tottenham and went double or quits - that figure today is £5,242,880, after last night's result

[arbboy]

Finally, If you bet a Tottenham fan £20 in 1995 that Arsenal will finish above Tottenham and went double or quits - that figure today is £5,242,880, after last night's result

Amazing numbers.

[horseplayer]

Calling Tal ?