Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 1100, Monday February 4th

We made a profit of £334 yesterday.

Plenty of coulda-woulda-shoulda, both here, & on the pitch, but the lights went out on our mega-sweat, end of story. Weirdly, but as someone mentioned last night, our three biggest sweats have all lost - Barnet, MVG, & now the 9ers. There's been no aftertiming or moans though, it's part & parcel of punting, & variance eventually sorts things out. 

Huge thanks to Camel, so many people had so much fun.

Move on.

In cold numbers, we had 2 losers & 5 winners yesterday.

Losses

49ers, £150 @ 6.8

49ers, £100 @ 8.4

Wins

Ravens, Longest Field Goal, +£20, Doobs.

Ravens, Longest Field Goal, +£20, Tighty

Destiny's Child thingie, +£24, Doobs

Italy v France RU, +£20, hector

49ers LAY, +£500, Camel. (see next Post)

[tikay]

Note to MereAuditor

The 49-ers LAY.

I owned that bet, it was the only way I could think of protecting Fred's position, but it now ends up in my P & L on Fred, & that does not work for me, I'm not here to give Tips.

Really, I think the LAY should be credited to Camel, it was he that set the ball rolling & gave us all that fun, (ditto the whole thread) & as of now, his figures give him a £250 loss for it, & I get a "free" £500.

Commonsense rules, the £500 LAY should be owned by Camel. It does not give him any money, but at least it gives him something on the sheet in recognition of the great fun we all had.

Please adjust the Spready accordingly.

[vegaslover]

So glad you laid some off Tikay, absolutely the right thing to do in the situation

[tikay]

Worth, perhaps, looking back at the NFL Season which has ended.

We only had two bets in the previous season, but I've excluded them from these numbers.

Amount Bet - £2,815

Profit - £706.25

Number of bets - 72.

ROI - 25%.

Those numbers EXCLUDE the "Novelty Bets", incidentally. These number over 30, (not just NFL, but there are several NFL ones included) for a ROI of 31% & nearly £400 Profit!

Big thanks to all of our NFL Experts, which include Camel, Bobby, reds, Neil (who presumably, & sadly, may be lost to us when his new site starts), Kuku, Tighty, plus the others who I have momentarily forgotten..... (remind me please!)

Just to add, the Post-Season NFL has been an incredible advertisement for the game, the Playoffs Weekend in particular was one of the best weekend's Sport I've ever watched. Right up there with 6 Nations.

Roll on next season.

[tikay]

So glad you laid some off Tikay, absolutely the right thing to do in the situation

Thanks.

It was a pretty awkward spot for me, as so many different views were held, but once a nit, always a nit, & I would not have enjoyed watching the game if I had not taken a bit of insurance. Scared money is not fun. And a LOT of friends sent me PM's, (knowing my naivety in these matters) strongly advising insurance.

A further complication was that before the Playoffs, I had taken some off-thread insurance on my own account, too, which meant that it was a bit awkward to do the Fred Lay as the two positions overlapped. So, thanks to Camel's tip, & the advice of a very good friend, I did OK.

[tikay]

In other news.....

Wales are now 6/1 to get the Wooden Spoon - we are on at 20/1.

Ireland are now 7/4 to win it - we are on at 9/2.

QPR are now 1/2 to be relegated - we are on at 8/5.

We have one or two duff ones, too. Today of all days, I'll spare you the grisly details.

[BiloxiDesire]

I have a tip for football this evening if I may Tikay.

Pacos Ferreira v Estoril (Home win between 2.0 - 2.05).

Recommended bet £10-£20

Pacos Ferreira have been the surprise package of the Portugese league this season currently sitting in 4th place (partly to do with their good form and partly because of Sporting Lisbon's poor form). They take on a team tonight in Estoril who've not been on a great run and are sitting in 8th (a lot higher than expected for this season, having just been promoted). Pacos Ferreira's last 6 reads W3 L3 not that spectacular in plain numbers but when considering that the three losses were against Sporting Lisbon (under a new manager), Benfica and Porto it shows that they've been able to bounceback from those with wins in the other 3 against Academica, Gil Vicente & Moreirense. Compare this with Estoril's form of W1 DR2 L3 in the last 6, a good draw was picked up against Porto at the start of those 6 games but since then they've lost to lowly Nacional & Gil Vicente, the only game they won was against relegation threatened Beira-Mar and that was a slim 1-0 victory away from home.

In the head to heads these teams have met 8 times with Pacos taking 4 and the sides drawing 4 meaning that Estoril have never beaten Pacos. Couple this with the last 6 games of each team (I don't like to look back much further) Pacos Ferreira have

There are also no injury concerns for Pacos that I have found. They did play a game midweek in the cup but this shouldn't affect there preparation and there should be no need for major rotation as after tonight they have a full week until there next game.

[tikay]

I have a tip for football this evening if I may Tikay.

Pacos Ferreira v Estoril (Home win between 2.0 - 2.05).

Recommended bet £10-£20

Pacos Ferreira have been the surprise package of the Portugese league this season currently sitting in 4th place (partly to do with their good form and partly because of Sporting Lisbon's poor form). They take on a team tonight in Estoril who've not been on a great run and are sitting in 8th (a lot higher than expected for this season, having just been promoted). Pacos Ferreira's last 6 reads W3 L3 not that spectacular in plain numbers but when considering that the three losses were against Sporting Lisbon (under a new manager), Benfica and Porto it shows that they've been able to bounceback from those with wins in the other 3 against Academica, Gil Vicente & Moreirense. Compare this with Estoril's form of W1 DR2 L3 in the last 6, a good draw was picked up against Porto at the start of those 6 games but since then they've lost to lowly Nacional & Gil Vicente, the only game they won was against relegation threatened Beira-Mar and that was a slim 1-0 victory away from home.

In the head to heads these teams have met 8 times with Pacos taking 4 and the sides drawing 4 meaning that Estoril have never beaten Pacos. Couple this with the last 6 games of each team (I don't like to look back much further) Pacos Ferreira have

There are also no injury concerns for Pacos that I have found. They did play a game midweek in the cup but this shouldn't affect there preparation and there should be no need for major rotation as after tonight they have a full week until there next game.

Crikey, that's an obscure one - Portugese football! Thank you.

We try to get as many people as possible to be involved, so we will get on that in a bit.

I have no idea if we have value or not, but you seem to have researched it well, so I just have to choose between £10 or £20. I know some find it slightly amusing, but little nitty bets for £10 or £20 are just fine by me.

The only regular I know who follows these sort of Leagues is horsey, so he may weigh in with a view, too.

What's the deal with the Portugese League - what makes you follow it? Seems pleasantly niche & unusual.

PS - the market is here....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/other/portugal/primeira-liga/pacos-ferreira-v-estoril/winner

[horseplayer]

watch a fair bit of it but always have found it a tricky league to bet in (probably just bad experience)

certainly could not add anything more detailed than bilox has

good luck

[rfgqqabc]

42k matched on Betfair and current price 2.06-2.08. Pinnacle also evens. Write up looks good.

[BiloxiDesire]

Cheers for the comments, over the past few months I have tried to spread my knowledge from the top 4 leagues in England top the top flights of other European games (mainly because it's actually a lot easier to watch those games more regularly). I've been mainly following La Liga, Primeira Liga, Ligue Un & (Not-european) Liga MX meaning I get to watch a couple of games a week on Bet365.

[millidonk]

Billoxi, can't believe it, it's like losing a son. You made your first ever post in the greatest thread on this site and look where you've ended up! Mixing with the likes of these degens.

Nice write up though, will be on for my FSTG Step 1.

[horseplayer]

for all there faults the bet365 streaming facility is very good for the European leagues

[tikay]

Billoxi, can't believe it, it's like losing a son. You made your first ever post in the greatest thread on this site and look where you've ended up! Mixing with the likes of these degens.

Nice write up though, will be on for my FSTG Step 1.

We poached him in the transfer window.

[tikay]

Cheers for the comments, over the past few months I have tried to spread my knowledge from the top 4 leagues in England top the top flights of other European games (mainly because it's actually a lot easier to watch those games more regularly). I've been mainly following La Liga, Primeira Liga, Ligue Un & (Not-european) Liga MX meaning I get to watch a couple of games a week on Bet365.

Great stuff.

Are you able to keep your head above water in these Leagues & nick a few bob? Not prying, don't want actual numbers, I just find it fascinating how so many folks think outside the box & try to find niche markets, this really is "working hard" to find an angle.

We will have a little dabble on that match shortly.