The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[RED-DOG]

Speaking as someone who has virtually no political knowledge but has spent a lifetime doing deals, I can guarantee there is zero chance of a no deal brexit. All the 'no deal' preparations and discussions are nothing more than a very transparent negotiating tool.

Never mind "No deal is better than a bad deal". No deal would be the worst deal of all and there is no way we can allow it to happen.

But, the simple truth is, we have no bargaining chips. We will be forced to accept the softest of brexits where we obey EU laws, continue with free trade - free movement, pay our dues but have no seat at the decision making table.

[StuartHopkin]

Speaking as someone who has virtually no political knowledge but has spent a lifetime doing deals, I can guarantee there is zero chance of a no deal brexit. All the 'no deal' preparations and discussions are nothing more than a very transparent negotiating tool.

Never mind "No deal is better than a bad deal". No deal would be the worst deal of all and there is no way we can allow it to happen.

But, the simple truth is, we have no bargaining chips. We will be forced to accept the softest of brexits where we obey EU laws, continue with free trade - free movement, pay our dues but have no seat at the decision making table.

Are you willing to vouch for the government that there will be a deal?  

[Doobs]

I know that Brexit has been hugely expensive for the insurance industry.   Every insurer haa got policyholders in the EU.  Whether they sold there or moved there.   If you want to sell to those in the EU, you need to be allowed to sell there.   With no certainty if this will still apply, insurers have had to prepare to, or open life companies within the EU that can operate there.   I have no idea on the cost for the whole industry, but it will be 100s of millions upwards.  There will be ongoing costs of reporting in the EU too.   

There may be some benefits in reduced regulation, but that may not happen, because if we want to sell to the EU...

Enormous sums to throw away for no real benefit over what we had before.

I wouldn't fancy walking away and compete with US Insurers, if weare to compete it will be a rush to the bottom, and likely very detrumental to consumer protection.

Just one industry, but hard to think of the beneficiaries.   Maybe Dyson?

[MANTIS01]

Sky News obtains under Freedom of Information 30 studies on Brexit impact by local councils across the UK making contingencies and expressing concerns as Brexit clock ticks down, from social care, to food/medicines availability, border checks, to “social unrest”...

These reports will be included in their budget proposals no doubt so imagine they are worse case scenario +20%

[TightEnd]

this is a very good (long) read

Playing with fire: Brexit and the decay of the Good Friday Agreement

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/08/01/playing-with-fire-brexit-and-the-decay-of-the-good-friday-agreement/

[TightEnd]

"This country deserves better from its principal party of opposition"

-The Guardian

https://bit.ly/2OxfBFH

[TightEnd]

Crying wolf

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/97310/senior-cabinet-minister-warns-%E2%80%98no-deal%E2%80%99-brexit-could

[TightEnd]

At Deltapoll, they asked Leave voters in Britain to choose between leaving the EU and peace in Northern Ireland.

Nearly 6 out of 10 said the UK leaving the EU was more important.

surprised me a bit.

[Jon MW]

At Deltapoll, they asked Leave voters in Britain to choose between leaving the EU and peace in Northern Ireland.

Nearly 6 out of 10 said the UK leaving the EU was more important.

surprised me a bit.

874 leave voters - seems very much like they knew the headline they wanted and worked out the poll to get it

[TightEnd]

At Deltapoll, they asked Leave voters in Britain to choose between leaving the EU and peace in Northern Ireland.

Nearly 6 out of 10 said the UK leaving the EU was more important.

surprised me a bit.

874 leave voters - seems very much like they knew the headline they wanted and worked out the poll to get it

its run by Twyman ex of you gov

1000 or so is the sample for most of the regular polls

take the scepticism though, though I don't know what angle Deltapoll (a new company) are coming from (for example some polls are sponsored/apid for)

[TightEnd]

Jeremy Hunt on Brexit: 'We are heading for no deal by accident'

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/01/jeremy-hunt-on-brexit-we-are-heading-for-no-deal-by-accident?CMP=twt_gu

[TightEnd]

"I have never regretted voting for Brexit – and the EU's latest bullying tactics have made me more certain about it than ever

In the days after the referendum, I remember my French other half saying: 'It won’t happen.' I'm beginning to believe him"

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-eu-bullying-uk-vote-leave-theresa-may-talks-brussels-a8472901.html

[Doobs]

I've been watching the whole anti-semitism discussions within labour and it feels like a subject where the more i watch and listen the less i understand.

I've always thought it's inevitable that people who are stridently anti zionist, anti Israeli government actions might exhibit some anti jewishness or make some jewish people uncomfortable but would never have really equated that with the kind of anti semitism that exists in the far right.

Anyway, when a load of fuss kicked up about Willsman I assumed he must have said some blatantly and pretty terrible anti semitic things - I've listened to his remarks and I'm really struggling to see how what he said could cause so much offense to so many.

Weird situation where centrist labour people like Cooper, Umunna, Watson et all call for him to stand down and then rabid nutters like Owen Jones also say he's beyond the pale and he's joined by Billy Bragg referring to the MacPherson principle.

I wonder why i'm missing the point so much when I feel like I'm normally quite sensitive to and, I thought, quite discerning when I saw/witnessed racism

It's his point of view about the situation and not in itself anti-semitic imo.  However how stupid do you need to be to start ranting about this in the current climate for labour?  I think that is why they are calling him to stand down.  The party leadership is idiotic.  Just accept the universally accepted definition and examples and move on?  It's incredible they stumble from one disaster to the next likely all because some Momentum adviser decides they don't want their anti-Israel rhetoric compromised.  Accept the code.  Say what you want about Israel and just don't cross the line.  It's not hard.

I agree with your general points completely..perhaps he's just the straw that broke the camels back and the more left wing of the people I mentioned are finally trying too appear as sensible voices of reason

Saying you are not aware of anti-semitism, when there have been several recent examples that are known about, seems ridiculous at best.  Also talking about Jewish conspiracies seems like the sort of thing that seems classic anti-semitism.  He is clearly a bit of a liability. 

The Jezza story from 8 years ago seems like nothing.  He is known to hace associated witb worst over the years, and he can't be responsible for everything that is said by people at events he attends.

By contrast, there is barely anything that has been written about all the top Tories who have spoken to Steve Bannon, which seems way worse than the latest Jezza story.   If Steve Bannon isn't a neo nazi, he is very good at doing impressions of one.   

[RickBFA]

I've been watching the whole anti-semitism discussions within labour and it feels like a subject where the more i watch and listen the less i understand.

I've always thought it's inevitable that people who are stridently anti zionist, anti Israeli government actions might exhibit some anti jewishness or make some jewish people uncomfortable but would never have really equated that with the kind of anti semitism that exists in the far right.

Anyway, when a load of fuss kicked up about Willsman I assumed he must have said some blatantly and pretty terrible anti semitic things - I've listened to his remarks and I'm really struggling to see how what he said could cause so much offense to so many.

Weird situation where centrist labour people like Cooper, Umunna, Watson et all call for him to stand down and then rabid nutters like Owen Jones also say he's beyond the pale and he's joined by Billy Bragg referring to the MacPherson principle.

I wonder why i'm missing the point so much when I feel like I'm normally quite sensitive to and, I thought, quite discerning when I saw/witnessed racism

It's his point of view about the situation and not in itself anti-semitic imo.  However how stupid do you need to be to start ranting about this in the current climate for labour?  I think that is why they are calling him to stand down.  The party leadership is idiotic.  Just accept the universally accepted definition and examples and move on?  It's incredible they stumble from one disaster to the next likely all because some Momentum adviser decides they don't want their anti-Israel rhetoric compromised.  Accept the code.  Say what you want about Israel and just don't cross the line.  It's not hard.

I agree with your general points completely..perhaps he's just the straw that broke the camels back and the more left wing of the people I mentioned are finally trying too appear as sensible voices of reason

Saying you are not aware of anti-semitism, when there have been several recent examples that are known about, seems ridiculous at best.  Also talking about Jewish conspiracies seems like the sort of thing that seems classic anti-semitism.  He is clearly a bit of a liability. 

The Jezza story from 8 years ago seems like nothing.  He is known to hace associated witb worst over the years, and he can't be responsible for everything that is said by people at events he attends.

By contrast, there is barely anything that has been written about all the top Tories who have spoken to Steve Bannon, which seems way worse than the latest Jezza story.   If Steve Bannon isn't a neo nazi, he is very good at doing impressions of one.   

I think the Jezza story is more than that Doobs.

He must have had an agenda and the talk in the Commons was titled “The misuse of the Holocaust for Political reasons.”

This was on Holocaust Memorial Day ffs.

Instead of paying his respects to those that died he’s at this type of event.

It shows a crass lack of judgement for someone who wants to lead our country.

[nirvana]

I've been watching the whole anti-semitism discussions within labour and it feels like a subject where the more i watch and listen the less i understand.

I've always thought it's inevitable that people who are stridently anti zionist, anti Israeli government actions might exhibit some anti jewishness or make some jewish people uncomfortable but would never have really equated that with the kind of anti semitism that exists in the far right.

Anyway, when a load of fuss kicked up about Willsman I assumed he must have said some blatantly and pretty terrible anti semitic things - I've listened to his remarks and I'm really struggling to see how what he said could cause so much offense to so many.

Weird situation where centrist labour people like Cooper, Umunna, Watson et all call for him to stand down and then rabid nutters like Owen Jones also say he's beyond the pale and he's joined by Billy Bragg referring to the MacPherson principle.

I wonder why i'm missing the point so much when I feel like I'm normally quite sensitive to and, I thought, quite discerning when I saw/witnessed racism

It's his point of view about the situation and not in itself anti-semitic imo.  However how stupid do you need to be to start ranting about this in the current climate for labour?  I think that is why they are calling him to stand down.  The party leadership is idiotic.  Just accept the universally accepted definition and examples and move on?  It's incredible they stumble from one disaster to the next likely all because some Momentum adviser decides they don't want their anti-Israel rhetoric compromised.  Accept the code.  Say what you want about Israel and just don't cross the line.  It's not hard.

I agree with your general points completely..perhaps he's just the straw that broke the camels back and the more left wing of the people I mentioned are finally trying too appear as sensible voices of reason

Saying you are not aware of anti-semitism, when there have been several recent examples that are known about, seems ridiculous at best.  Also talking about Jewish conspiracies seems like the sort of thing that seems classic anti-semitism.  He is clearly a bit of a liability. 

The Jezza story from 8 years ago seems like nothing.  He is known to hace associated witb worst over the years, and he can't be responsible for everything that is said by people at events he attends.

By contrast, there is barely anything that has been written about all the top Tories who have spoken to Steve Bannon, which seems way worse than the latest Jezza story.   If Steve Bannon isn't a neo nazi, he is very good at doing impressions of one.   

Yep, read a bit more and get the point completely and agree with the other couple of comments.

I wanted to learn more and spoke to a guy at work today - an orthodox Jew.  Feel a bit better informed for having got a view from him.