Tips for Tikay

[exstream]

Norwich got nothing to play for though

[The Camel]

Norwich got nothing to play for though

Damn, I hadn't noticed that.

[Marky147]

Norwich got nothing to play for though

Damn, I hadn't noticed that.

Want me to try and lay it off?

[The Camel]

Norwich got nothing to play for though

Damn, I hadn't noticed that.

Want me to try and lay it off?

I'm a stubborn old ruminant, so let it ride this once.

[rinswun]

Search Knockaert steaming on twitter, comedy!

[Karabiner]

What do we think of Marine Le Pen winning the French Presidency @ 7/2?
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/next-president
Just like Trump and Brexit, it just can't happen (!) but voter disillusionment with establishment politics, a high unemployment rate (particularly among the youth), terrorist attacks, immigration questions all play into her hands, surely?
Tighty?

I'd say there is a good chance of her winning the first round due to the factors that you describe and the vote is split amongst the establishment candidates.

She is odds on.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/first-round-vote-winner

Then there is a head to head run off where the vast majority of the establishment voters will switch their vote to the last mainstream candidate (probably Macron) and and band together to stop Le Pen and she will lose the heads up like her father in 2002

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002

I have no idea how to put a price on it but 7/2 seems pretty short for what would be a shock political event. If anything, after Trump and Brexit I would say there would be likely an overreaction in the betting prices of shock political events due to recency bias - indeed I believe recall this was discussed before the Stoke by election on a thread here...

Yes, I understand the system and I know the theory behind, "all the remainder will vote anti Le Pen" in the run off. But Trump won, at least partly, because Clinton was such a bad candidate. The same applies in France. The main 2 opponents have their own issues.
Macron has never held elected office, he doesn't really stand for anything. Fillon has the corruption stuff hanging over him.
 
Regarding Le Pen snr, he was never a runner in 2002, the landscape wasn't right. We were still in the economic boom and extremists never get in during the 'good times'. Also he was never astute enough politically. Marine presents the 'gentler' side of fascism

I had a French friend stay with me last weekend. She doesn't want Le Pen at all but she thinks it could be very, very close.

Nate Silver posted just now about it. But it seems he is suspicious about the data

Click to see full-size image.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853998602754158592

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853999400535941120

 
The thing about Le Pen's numbers are that they are likely under counted imo. The 'shy' voter being polled. Who wants to admit to voting for a fascist? They'll do it but they won't admit it!

FWIW I've had my winnings from Trump on Le Pen.

A fascist roll up if you like.

Farage for the treble?

[Marky147]

Norwich got nothing to play for though

Damn, I hadn't noticed that.

Want me to try and lay it off?

I'm a stubborn old ruminant, so let it ride this once.

NPs.

Good luck Tikay's sticky bun fund

[exstream]

Think tightend said recently that tikay doesn't like betting that much

[Jamier-Host]

@Tighty, just noticed you tipped up Guodong against Day in the snooker.

Quite fancied his chances myself so bought tournament ton ups @ 21 and backed him @ 125/1 for highest break.

Good luck us tomorrow!

[tikay]

Norwich got nothing to play for though

Damn, I hadn't noticed that.

Want me to try and lay it off?

I'm a stubborn old ruminant, so let it ride this once.

NPs.

Good luck Tikay's sticky bun fund

I just got out of it too.

Need plenty of sticky buns this year, too, as I have had to quit the ciggies. Am supposed to quit sticky buns, too, but there is a limit.

Send more money.

[Marky147]

Norwich got nothing to play for though

Damn, I hadn't noticed that.

Want me to try and lay it off?

I'm a stubborn old ruminant, so let it ride this once.

NPs.

Good luck Tikay's sticky bun fund

I just got out of it too.

Need plenty of sticky buns this year, too, as I have had to quit the ciggies. Am supposed to quit sticky buns, too, but there is a limit.

Send more money.

If this scoopios, you'll be getting some fired your way.


Just make sure there are some left at Starbies when I get there!

[booder]

Norwich got nothing to play for though

And they are terrible.

[The Camel]

Seriously, if this is an overstake, I'll take what Tony doesn't want.

Think this is a fantastic spot, I predict Norwich will be around 2.2 by kick off.

[JohnCharver]

Incredible scenes at the Amex yesterday as Brighton celebrated promotion to the big league for the first time in a generation..

But for looking at Twitter and Brighton messageboards, it seems the players might have celebrated a bit TOO hard. They were still out partying and drinking well after midnight.

Indeed, someone has posted they had a drink with Knockaert and Dunk in Seafront bar this afternoon!

They play away at Norwich in about 72 hours time and I imagine several of the players will still be suffering the after effects of the exuberance.

Norwich are in the best form they've been in all season (lost one of their last eight) and I expect them to beat the bedraggled Seagulls.

Rec £200 at 6/4 with Paddy Power if you can.

Reminds me of that sickening bet on carlisle because hartlepool had just survived relegation and were still tanked 24hrs before travelling to carlisle last day of the season, carlisle led 3-0 at half time.....the bet didnt win lol.

[tikay]

Seriously, if this is an overstake, I'll take what Tony doesn't want.

I'm completely happy with it Keith, but thank you anyway.

I think you understand my mindset well enough. I don't want to be punting £200 or more all day every day, but happy to do so from time to time when the circumstances are right. Tighty knows this too.

Bear in mind of course, for those that still don't get it, it does not matter what Fred does or does not bet. Recommends are made, everyone can decide for themselves what to do, and for how much.

If we all work together as a team, and understand that, we'll be just fine.