boldie
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« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2007, 08:28:42 PM » |
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given the information then the guy with 6's is about 20% to beat Kings as is the guy with 9's, the guy with an Ace is about 35% to beat Kings so Kings are still favourite as there are more cards in the kings favour as kings don't need to hit so I reckon Kings are still about 55% to win. One other thing in the Kings favour is that all 3 of his opponents are actually taking some straightening card possibilities from each other (and maybe flush possibilities).
how can Kings be 55% here? there's no way that can be the case. Any pokershow where they show the stats kings and Queens show up at roundabout 34% when there are more than 3 other people in the pot. Pre-flop you're one in 3-ish..if you survive the flop your odds obviously go up tremendously. You are a favourite over the other players so you're chance of winning the pot are higher than the others chances ..but that doesn't mean that you are more than 50%.it just means your % is higher than everyones individual %. I might be way off here and that just means I haven't been paying attention when Late night poker or something was on but I reckon there's no chance in hell you win this one more than half the time statistically.
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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Flea
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« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2007, 08:35:20 PM » |
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given the information then the guy with 6's is about 20% to beat Kings as is the guy with 9's, the guy with an Ace is about 35% to beat Kings so Kings are still favourite as there are more cards in the kings favour as kings don't need to hit so I reckon Kings are still about 55% to win. One other thing in the Kings favour is that all 3 of his opponents are actually taking some straightening card possibilities from each other (and maybe flush possibilities).
how can Kings be 55% here? there's no way that can be the case. Any pokershow where they show the stats kings and Queens show up at roundabout 34% when there are more than 3 other people in the pot. Pre-flop you're one in 3-ish..if you survive the flop your odds obviously go up tremendously. You are a favourite over the other players so you're chance of winning the pot are higher than the others chances ..but that doesn't mean that you are more than 50%.it just means your % is higher than everyones individual %. I might be way off here and that just means I haven't been paying attention when Late night poker or something was on but I reckon there's no chance in hell you win this one more than half the time statistically. tbh it was a complete guess, my brain hurts too much to work it out properly.
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"Am I out yet??"
Poker aliases: PStars - Flea71 Virgin - Flea71 Blonde - Flea Sky - Flea Betfair - flea71 WHill - And170570
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boldie
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« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2007, 08:38:37 PM » |
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given the information then the guy with 6's is about 20% to beat Kings as is the guy with 9's, the guy with an Ace is about 35% to beat Kings so Kings are still favourite as there are more cards in the kings favour as kings don't need to hit so I reckon Kings are still about 55% to win. One other thing in the Kings favour is that all 3 of his opponents are actually taking some straightening card possibilities from each other (and maybe flush possibilities).
how can Kings be 55% here? there's no way that can be the case. Any pokershow where they show the stats kings and Queens show up at roundabout 34% when there are more than 3 other people in the pot. Pre-flop you're one in 3-ish..if you survive the flop your odds obviously go up tremendously. You are a favourite over the other players so you're chance of winning the pot are higher than the others chances ..but that doesn't mean that you are more than 50%.it just means your % is higher than everyones individual %. I might be way off here and that just means I haven't been paying attention when Late night poker or something was on but I reckon there's no chance in hell you win this one more than half the time statistically. tbh it was a complete guess, my brain hurts too much to work it out properly. like I said...I just know what the late night pokershows tell me and it wouldn't surprise me one bit to find Jesse May was talking piash all this time I know F all about pot-odds..especially in a situation like this
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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ifm
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« Reply #18 on: October 01, 2007, 08:44:30 PM » |
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given the information then the guy with 6's is about 20% to beat Kings as is the guy with 9's, the guy with an Ace is about 35% to beat Kings so Kings are still favourite as there are more cards in the kings favour as kings don't need to hit so I reckon Kings are still about 55% to win. One other thing in the Kings favour is that all 3 of his opponents are actually taking some straightening card possibilities from each other (and maybe flush possibilities).
how can Kings be 55% here? there's no way that can be the case. Any pokershow where they show the stats kings and Queens show up at roundabout 34% when there are more than 3 other people in the pot. Pre-flop you're one in 3-ish..if you survive the flop your odds obviously go up tremendously. You are a favourite over the other players so you're chance of winning the pot are higher than the others chances ..but that doesn't mean that you are more than 50%.it just means your % is higher than everyones individual %. I might be way off here and that just means I haven't been paying attention when Late night poker or something was on but I reckon there's no chance in hell you win this one more than half the time statistically. Flea your maths doesn't quite add up, they need to addup to 100 including splits. I generally work that any random hand v a high pp is about 15-20% so 3x15 leaves you 55% without splits or 3x20 leaves 40% so somewhere in between is about right. so 47.5%
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Sometimes you have to suffer a little bit in your youth to motivate yourself to succeed in later life. Do you think if Bill Gates got laid in high school, do you think there'd be a Microsoft? Of course not.
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booder
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« Reply #19 on: October 01, 2007, 08:49:29 PM » |
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about 33%
30% ace queen win
19% 66 win
18% 99 win
at a guess
perhaps i should be folding 99 preflop.............bad hand
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Quote from: action man im not speculating, either, but id have been pretty peeved if i missed the thread and i ended up getting clipped, kindly accepting a lift home.
In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends. Martin Luther King Jr
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JungleCat03
Insidious underminer
Learning Centre Group
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 4270
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« Reply #20 on: October 02, 2007, 12:49:39 AM » |
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i'd guess a tad under 50...off to check how close that is....
...also the relative suits will have a smallish impact on the %s too
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"In darker days Jason Robinson found God. But that was after God found Jason Robinson."
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AlexMartin
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« Reply #21 on: October 02, 2007, 03:06:30 PM » |
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The kings are in fact 45% to win this coup. I was suprised at how high they were tbh. I tried working it out the wrong way when i was on the table, adding up the combined probabilities of KK holding against each individual hand. Eg its 4-1 v a pp (66+99) + AQ has a 30% chance of outdrawing the kings.
Quite suprising really. Pokerstove is a wicked bit of kit btw. Play around with it and try some matchups. If ur sooooooted ur never that far behind.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #22 on: October 02, 2007, 03:32:04 PM » |
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did M3 come 4th?
no way on earth he came near to winning the hand?
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My eyes are open wide By the way,I made it through the day I watch the world outside By the way, I'm leaving out today
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kinboshi
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« Reply #23 on: October 02, 2007, 03:38:27 PM » |
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The kings are in fact 45% to win this coup.
I was right then...
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'The meme for blind faith secures its own perpetuation by the simple unconscious expedient of discouraging rational inquiry.'
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boldie
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« Reply #24 on: October 02, 2007, 04:48:42 PM » |
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The kings are in fact 45% to win this coup. I was suprised at how high they were tbh. I tried working it out the wrong way when i was on the table, adding up the combined probabilities of KK holding against each individual hand. Eg its 4-1 v a pp (66+99) + AQ has a 30% chance of outdrawing the kings.
Quite suprising really. Pokerstove is a wicked bit of kit btw. Play around with it and try some matchups. If ur sooooooted ur never that far behind.
wow that is high..and Jesse May (maybe not surprisingly) is full of it..OK it's not him but the graphics guys. Looks like I might need to gets me da stove
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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Bongo
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« Reply #25 on: October 02, 2007, 04:52:55 PM » |
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The kings are in fact 45% to win this coup. I was suprised at how high they were tbh. I tried working it out the wrong way when i was on the table, adding up the combined probabilities of KK holding against each individual hand. Eg its 4-1 v a pp (66+99) + AQ has a 30% chance of outdrawing the kings.
Quite suprising really. Pokerstove is a wicked bit of kit btw. Play around with it and try some matchups. If ur sooooooted ur never that far behind.
I worked it out the same way as you and then added some back to the kings to take into account the times more than one of the opposing hands hit.
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Do you think it's dangerous to have Busby Berkeley dreams?
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M3boy
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« Reply #26 on: October 04, 2007, 08:18:32 AM » |
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I remember this hand.
What is important is the stack sizes.
UTG has circa 8k, UTG+1 has circa 45k, UTG+3 has circa 7k and I have circa 40k
No one elseat the table has over 12k.
UTG has AQ UTG+1 has 66 UTG + 3 has 99
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« Last Edit: October 04, 2007, 08:43:59 AM by M3boy »
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Rookie (Rodney)
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« Reply #27 on: October 04, 2007, 10:58:33 AM » |
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did M3 come 4th?
no way on earth he came near to winning the hand?
We haven't heard a bad beat whinge... I can only assume he won!
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HI HELEN!
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kinboshi
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« Reply #28 on: October 04, 2007, 10:59:13 AM » |
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...or folded.
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'The meme for blind faith secures its own perpetuation by the simple unconscious expedient of discouraging rational inquiry.'
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Rookie (Rodney)
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« Reply #29 on: October 04, 2007, 11:12:01 AM » |
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It says in OP that he called.. Keep up..
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HI HELEN!
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