Independence Referendum

[Rod Paradise]

I stand corrected, the pound is falling against the dollar because of Obamas stance on Syria which will of course impact the pound greatly

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xQvJac_NAKI

The look is priceless and sort of indicative of when you try and argue with a yes campaigner even on points they are clearly wrong

Recognising I'm a late joiner on this, been too busy elsewhere on it, what points are clearly wrong in your eyes?

And if we start a contest of politicians talking nonsense from both sides I reckon you're on a loser....

Not an expert on the deep nuances of it but  political risk and uncertainty are incredibly sensitive issues in currency markets and the £ to $ chart looks to be directly proportionate to the increase in yes support. Every commentary I have read states this.

Conversely Obama threatening action in Syria would to me negatively not positively impact the dollar as it creates uncertainty.

The £ to $ has gone about 10-11c in 5-6 weeks which is pretty huge

I wasn't arguing that - she's obviously made up an answer on the spot & got it wrong. Although I'd say it was the likelihood of Osborne sticking to no currency union that hurts the pound - but yes it's obviously the referendum and the aftermath that has caused a wobble.

It was the end comment that made me wonder if you're not getting the look because of what you think is clearly wrong.

Regardless of the currency union the pound will be impacted. Currency is not the only political uncertainty.

My point is she was wrong, but she seemed unable to concede that. The problem is people can be saying things like this in houses where there is not someone to correct them.  I am not saying all MPs need to be economists but to blindly rule out the referendum impacts the pound is relatively worrying for an elected official

The referendum wouldn't effect the £ if the UK gov pre-negotiated or at least never backed themselves into a corner shouting "you can't use our uk pound"

Well that's just nonsense, uncertainty triggers this, not uncertainty on currency. Every commentary I have read on the internet states uncertainty regarding the referendum and the yes support directly impact the £ rate, some state that there will be an expected bounce back if it is a no vote, as the uk recovery position is favourable against other nations.  

You said it yourself, the hard work starts the day after referendum. It will be years before the market fully trusts an independent Scotland

Having a political moment yourself there, uncertainty on currency & the amount of output backing that currency might just have a little bit to do with the currency falling in value.

Of course the £ bounces back on a No, they know what the production backing it will be. The uncertainty of a country's production taking a sudden drop will always hurt the currency.

That uncertainty is a bigger danger due to Osborne's no union gamble.

BTW if a 1.5 c drop over the weekend there was caused by a poll giving Yes the lead, what caused 2 24 hour drops of roughly the same size in the previous week when BT were still loudly proclaiming their lead?

[OverTheBorder]

I stand corrected, the pound is falling against the dollar because of Obamas stance on Syria which will of course impact the pound greatly

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xQvJac_NAKI

The look is priceless and sort of indicative of when you try and argue with a yes campaigner even on points they are clearly wrong

Recognising I'm a late joiner on this, been too busy elsewhere on it, what points are clearly wrong in your eyes?

And if we start a contest of politicians talking nonsense from both sides I reckon you're on a loser....

Not an expert on the deep nuances of it but  political risk and uncertainty are incredibly sensitive issues in currency markets and the £ to $ chart looks to be directly proportionate to the increase in yes support. Every commentary I have read states this.

Conversely Obama threatening action in Syria would to me negatively not positively impact the dollar as it creates uncertainty.

The £ to $ has gone about 10-11c in 5-6 weeks which is pretty huge

I wasn't arguing that - she's obviously made up an answer on the spot & got it wrong. Although I'd say it was the likelihood of Osborne sticking to no currency union that hurts the pound - but yes it's obviously the referendum and the aftermath that has caused a wobble.

It was the end comment that made me wonder if you're not getting the look because of what you think is clearly wrong.

Regardless of the currency union the pound will be impacted. Currency is not the only political uncertainty.

My point is she was wrong, but she seemed unable to concede that. The problem is people can be saying things like this in houses where there is not someone to correct them.  I am not saying all MPs need to be economists but to blindly rule out the referendum impacts the pound is relatively worrying for an elected official

The referendum wouldn't effect the £ if the UK gov pre-negotiated or at least never backed themselves into a corner shouting "you can't use our uk pound"

Well that's just nonsense, uncertainty triggers this, not uncertainty on currency. Every commentary I have read on the internet states uncertainty regarding the referendum and the yes support directly impact the £ rate, some state that there will be an expected bounce back if it is a no vote, as the uk recovery position is favourable against other nations.  

You said it yourself, the hard work starts the day after referendum. It will be years before the market fully trusts an independent Scotland

Having a political moment yourself there, uncertainty on currency & the amount of output backing that currency might just have a little bit to do with the currency falling in value.

Of course the £ bounces back on a No, they know what the production backing it will be. The uncertainty of a country's production taking a sudden drop will always hurt the currency.

That uncertainty is a bigger danger due to Osborne's no union gamble.

BTW if a 1. drop over the weekend there was caused by a poll giving Yes the lead, what caused 2 24 hour drops of roughly the same size in the previous week when BT were still loudly proclaiming their lead?

Kmac states if there was certainty on currency the £ would be fine during the yes campaign improvement.  That is nonsense, the currency is an issue in this, but one of many, I never denied that.

Compare that chart to the bookies odds. Will be broadly similar. I would suspect the other polls which showed a narrowing, the odds have been contracting since the 2nd debate

Edit - think I missed the word "just" as in not just currency uncertainty, out of my previous email. So I see what your saying iPhones at 1130

[Rod Paradise]

I stand corrected, the pound is falling against the dollar because of Obamas stance on Syria which will of course impact the pound greatly

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xQvJac_NAKI

The look is priceless and sort of indicative of when you try and argue with a yes campaigner even on points they are clearly wrong

Recognising I'm a late joiner on this, been too busy elsewhere on it, what points are clearly wrong in your eyes?

And if we start a contest of politicians talking nonsense from both sides I reckon you're on a loser....

Not an expert on the deep nuances of it but  political risk and uncertainty are incredibly sensitive issues in currency markets and the £ to $ chart looks to be directly proportionate to the increase in yes support. Every commentary I have read states this.

Conversely Obama threatening action in Syria would to me negatively not positively impact the dollar as it creates uncertainty.

The £ to $ has gone about 10-11c in 5-6 weeks which is pretty huge

I wasn't arguing that - she's obviously made up an answer on the spot & got it wrong. Although I'd say it was the likelihood of Osborne sticking to no currency union that hurts the pound - but yes it's obviously the referendum and the aftermath that has caused a wobble.

It was the end comment that made me wonder if you're not getting the look because of what you think is clearly wrong.

Regardless of the currency union the pound will be impacted. Currency is not the only political uncertainty.

My point is she was wrong, but she seemed unable to concede that. The problem is people can be saying things like this in houses where there is not someone to correct them.  I am not saying all MPs need to be economists but to blindly rule out the referendum impacts the pound is relatively worrying for an elected official

The referendum wouldn't effect the £ if the UK gov pre-negotiated or at least never backed themselves into a corner shouting "you can't use our uk pound"

Well that's just nonsense, uncertainty triggers this, not uncertainty on currency. Every commentary I have read on the internet states uncertainty regarding the referendum and the yes support directly impact the £ rate, some state that there will be an expected bounce back if it is a no vote, as the uk recovery position is favourable against other nations.  

You said it yourself, the hard work starts the day after referendum. It will be years before the market fully trusts an independent Scotland

Having a political moment yourself there, uncertainty on currency & the amount of output backing that currency might just have a little bit to do with the currency falling in value.

Of course the £ bounces back on a No, they know what the production backing it will be. The uncertainty of a country's production taking a sudden drop will always hurt the currency.

That uncertainty is a bigger danger due to Osborne's no union gamble.

BTW if a 1. drop over the weekend there was caused by a poll giving Yes the lead, what caused 2 24 hour drops of roughly the same size in the previous week when BT were still loudly proclaiming their lead?

Kmac states if there was certainty on currency the £ would be fine during the yes campaign improvement.  That is nonsense, the currency is an issue in this, but one of many, I never denied that.

Compare that chart to the bookies odds. Will be broadly similar. I would suspect the other polls which showed a narrowing, the odds have been contracting since the 2nd debate

Maybe the currency traders use betfair?

[OverTheBorder]

I stand corrected, the pound is falling against the dollar because of Obamas stance on Syria which will of course impact the pound greatly

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xQvJac_NAKI

The look is priceless and sort of indicative of when you try and argue with a yes campaigner even on points they are clearly wrong

Recognising I'm a late joiner on this, been too busy elsewhere on it, what points are clearly wrong in your eyes?

And if we start a contest of politicians talking nonsense from both sides I reckon you're on a loser....

Not an expert on the deep nuances of it but  political risk and uncertainty are incredibly sensitive issues in currency markets and the £ to $ chart looks to be directly proportionate to the increase in yes support. Every commentary I have read states this.

Conversely Obama threatening action in Syria would to me negatively not positively impact the dollar as it creates uncertainty.

The £ to $ has gone about 10-11c in 5-6 weeks which is pretty huge

I wasn't arguing that - she's obviously made up an answer on the spot & got it wrong. Although I'd say it was the likelihood of Osborne sticking to no currency union that hurts the pound - but yes it's obviously the referendum and the aftermath that has caused a wobble.

It was the end comment that made me wonder if you're not getting the look because of what you think is clearly wrong.

Regardless of the currency union the pound will be impacted. Currency is not the only political uncertainty.

My point is she was wrong, but she seemed unable to concede that. The problem is people can be saying things like this in houses where there is not someone to correct them.  I am not saying all MPs need to be economists but to blindly rule out the referendum impacts the pound is relatively worrying for an elected official

The referendum wouldn't effect the £ if the UK gov pre-negotiated or at least never backed themselves into a corner shouting "you can't use our uk pound"

Well that's just nonsense, uncertainty triggers this, not uncertainty on currency. Every commentary I have read on the internet states uncertainty regarding the referendum and the yes support directly impact the £ rate, some state that there will be an expected bounce back if it is a no vote, as the uk recovery position is favourable against other nations.  

You said it yourself, the hard work starts the day after referendum. It will be years before the market fully trusts an independent Scotland

Having a political moment yourself there, uncertainty on currency & the amount of output backing that currency might just have a little bit to do with the currency falling in value.

Of course the £ bounces back on a No, they know what the production backing it will be. The uncertainty of a country's production taking a sudden drop will always hurt the currency.

That uncertainty is a bigger danger due to Osborne's no union gamble.

BTW if a 1. drop over the weekend there was caused by a poll giving Yes the lead, what caused 2 24 hour drops of roughly the same size in the previous week when BT were still loudly proclaiming their lead?

Kmac states if there was certainty on currency the £ would be fine during the yes campaign improvement.  That is nonsense, the currency is an issue in this, but one of many, I never denied that.

Compare that chart to the bookies odds. Will be broadly similar. I would suspect the other polls which showed a narrowing, the odds have been contracting since the 2nd debate

Maybe the currency traders use betfair?

Probs lol I just know I check both the $ and odds daily. Best indicator there is something in the news worth reading

[Woodsey]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11082707/Billions-wiped-off-value-of-Scottish-businesses-as-markets-balk-at-independence.html

[OverTheBorder]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11082707/Billions-wiped-off-value-of-Scottish-businesses-as-markets-balk-at-independence.html

Propoganda. Darling sold his RBS shares to panic the market lol

[Woodsey]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11082707/Billions-wiped-off-value-of-Scottish-businesses-as-markets-balk-at-independence.html

Propoganda. Darling sold his RBS shares to panic the market lol

You should get a tin hat, the sky might just fall in mate 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/02/uk-lloyds-scotland-idUKKBN0GX20920140902

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10355068/Insurance-Society-of-Edinburgh-Pensions-firms-may-move-to-England-after-independence.html

[horseplayer]

This made me laugh

Chris Brookmyre ‏@cbrookmyre  54m
I see Ally McCoist supports Better Together. From the way they've blown a 15-point lead, you'd think he was actually managing them.

[doubleup]

Various doom and gloom articles appearing in the press about the markets punishing rUK (and Scotland) in the event of a YES.

The irony is that this is all because the Unionist parties piped up about refusing a currency union and the effect this will have:

Throwing debt share into doubt as even paying interest on rUK debt will have a negative effect on the Scottish currency and substituting debt would be out of the question.  rUK will have its credit rating cut with associated negative effects.

Huge additional costs for businesses costing jobs.

Doubt over pension liability and currency of payment almost definitely leading to legal challenges.

All Scottish debt will be legally denominated in the new currency, so massive disruption in financial businesses.

A simple long term agreement on shared currency and govt debt raising limits eases all these issues.

[DungBeetle]

"I read through this thread and despair with the misinformation (albeit unknowingly) reproduced.

Scotland is an ancient nation, much like Ireland, England and Wales, Scotland more than pays its own way, As a result Scotland funds it's own free prescriptions, university education and so on from its own purse.  This is NOT subsidised from the rest of the UK taxpayer. If you don't believe me, feel free to research the figures, go back 100 years if you like, you will find Scotland has contributed a lot more than it's ever got back for at least that long. ( that's before oil!)"

You say you despair at misinformation, and then state categorically that Scotland is a net contributor.   

I think most people are pretty much agreed that whether Scotland contributes or not is dependent on what assumptions you make about oil share and oil price.  Whether Scotland will be better off alone relies on assumptions about both the oil and what level it can borrrow at, what currency it has and how much UK debt it takes on.

 You seem confident that Scotland creates a surplus for the UK even without oil.  However, the figures I have seen this don't agree with that.   There are lots of sources, but 2009 without oil numbers are attached (again these figure are open to assumptions).

My point is all calculations are subject to assumptions, so people posting that Scotland is either categorically a contributor, or categorically a recipient seems silly to me.

http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-who-loses-if-scotland-goes-it-alone/6524

 

[Rod Paradise]

Various doom and gloom articles appearing in the press about the markets punishing rUK (and Scotland) in the event of a YES.

The irony is that this is all because the Unionist parties piped up about refusing a currency union and the effect this will have:

Throwing debt share into doubt as even paying interest on rUK debt will have a negative effect on the Scottish currency and substituting debt would be out of the question.  rUK will have its credit rating cut with associated negative effects.

Huge additional costs for businesses costing jobs.

Doubt over pension liability and currency of payment almost definitely leading to legal challenges.

All Scottish debt will be legally denominated in the new currency, so massive disruption in financial businesses.

A simple long term agreement on shared currency and govt debt raising limits eases all these issues.

I agree with most of that, but the debt (should Scotland chose to 'take' a share) won't be transferred to Scotland - legally the rUK would default if they took that route. What would need to happen would be an interest & repayment arrangement.

Also should agreement on division of assets/liabilities not be reached Scotland would have every right not to take the debt, the cries of 'default' and claims that the international money markets would somehow punish Scotland for it are patently daft.

[DungBeetle]

Why would it be daft?  In that situation Scotland would have tarnished their record by abandoning their responsibilities regarding the debt racked up as a joint nation.  If they then sought to borrow as an independent nation with their own currency then it seems logical that lenders would look on this action unfavourably and consider that it might be an indication of future attitudes to debt repayment.

As an englishman I used to be pretty indifferent to the outcome of the vote, but the more I read the views of the yes campaign the more I hope that they suceed so they actually have to follow through with their policies.

[Doobs]

Various doom and gloom articles appearing in the press about the markets punishing rUK (and Scotland) in the event of a YES.

The irony is that this is all because the Unionist parties piped up about refusing a currency union and the effect this will have:

Throwing debt share into doubt as even paying interest on rUK debt will have a negative effect on the Scottish currency and substituting debt would be out of the question.  rUK will have its credit rating cut with associated negative effects.

Huge additional costs for businesses costing jobs.

Doubt over pension liability and currency of payment almost definitely leading to legal challenges.

All Scottish debt will be legally denominated in the new currency, so massive disruption in financial businesses.

A simple long term agreement on shared currency and govt debt raising limits eases all these issues.

This would possibly be true if the main UK parties hadn't categorically stated that there would be no currency union months ago.  So this fact has been known to the markets since then.  

There are many reasons that the rUK wouldn't want currency union, but you can now add that they wouldn't want currency union with a country whose main political party have stated that they are willing to walk away from paying their debts.  My personal opinion is having years of that hanging over sterling isn't going to be favourable for the currency.  In much the same way as having possible defaults in Southen European countries drags on the Euro.  

The indepence will clearly be damaging in the short term on both Scotland and rUK.  It seems obvious to me that the costs will be proportionately higher on Scotland, but that is just a red herring here.

Arguing about whether the rUK would be more adversely affected by currency union isn't really important here, rUK is going to be damaged by Independence regardless. Hence the markers will be spooked by a possible yes vote whatever the currency union plans would be.  Also markets hate uncertainty, so you'd expect a fall anyway even if it wasn't clear if Independence was good or bad for rUK.  Right now we have lots of uncertainty because none of the major economic plans set out by the SNP have been agreed on the other side of the border.  Whatever we may both think will happen in the long run, this uncertainty is clearly there.

[Rod Paradise]

"I read through this thread and despair with the misinformation (albeit unknowingly) reproduced.

Scotland is an ancient nation, much like Ireland, England and Wales, Scotland more than pays its own way, As a result Scotland funds it's own free prescriptions, university education and so on from its own purse.  This is NOT subsidised from the rest of the UK taxpayer. If you don't believe me, feel free to research the figures, go back 100 years if you like, you will find Scotland has contributed a lot more than it's ever got back for at least that long. ( that's before oil!)"

You say you despair at misinformation, and then state categorically that Scotland is a net contributor.   

I think most people are pretty much agreed that whether Scotland contributes or not is dependent on what assumptions you make about oil share and oil price.  Whether Scotland will be better off alone relies on assumptions about both the oil and what level it can borrrow at, what currency it has and how much UK debt it takes on.

 You seem confident that Scotland creates a surplus for the UK even without oil.  However, the figures I have seen this don't agree with that.   There are lots of sources, but 2009 without oil numbers are attached (again these figure are open to assumptions).

My point is all calculations are subject to assumptions, so people posting that Scotland is either categorically a contributor, or categorically a recipient seems silly to me.

http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-who-loses-if-scotland-goes-it-alone/6524

 

Point of order - if oil is ignored none of the home nations is currently a net contributor in the UK - hence the massive debt which is growing.

[Rod Paradise]

Why would it be daft?  In that situation Scotland would have tarnished their record by abandoning their responsibilities regarding the debt racked up as a joint nation.  If they then sought to borrow as an independent nation with their own currency then it seems logical that lenders would look on this action unfavourably and consider that it might be an indication of future attitudes to debt repayment.

As an englishman I used to be pretty indifferent to the outcome of the vote, but the more I read the views of the yes campaign the more I hope that they suceed so they actually have to follow through with their policies.

It's daft unless you think of banks making moral decisions. The debt is the UK's, Westminster has already claimed the Continuor State status & under International convention continour states take the debts as well. Banks don't listen to the moral argument, especially when assuming liability for the debt is rUK's own choice.

Have a look at the former soviet states - who left Russia with all the USSR's debt, having previously agreed to take a share - ie a real default on an agreement. No borrowing or punative rates? $200bn over 7 years at market rates or better AFAICR. The banks looked at a debt free country, even without a great GDP, and felt they were going to be a good risk.