Not often you see something in PL betting that makes you double take, but i saw one
I have had the misfortune to see Stoke City live twice this season. Once under Hughes, once under Lambert
On the latter occasion they played notably deeper defensively, and narrower with a lad called Kadou patrolling the area in front of the back four alongside Cameron who is a full back. In so far as i can tell, three of the back four are new-ish as well. No more playing wingers at left back as Hughes did either.
so the formation was 4-3-2-1, with Joe Allen ostensibly linking defence to attack but in practice spending a lot of time sitting in front of his right back
On the prior occasion they left more space in behind, and played more open. Under Hughes they had the worst defensive record in the division
Under Lambert goals conceded are 0,0,2,1,1
So this weekend they travel to Southampton, a team that has 5 wins all season and has 12 draws. They have scored 16 goals in 15 home games
goals per home game in order 0 3 (west ham under bilic) 0 0 2 1 0 4 (everton pre allardyce) 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
The teams are seperated by a point in the congested bottom six and Lambert, inheriting (Shaqiri aside) a prosaic team appears to have gone the "make sure we don't lose" approach first and foremost
Southampton are naturally cagey, tactically. A Stoke win here would be terrible for them.
Both sides have to set out not to lose.
So in a game like this we would normally expect to see 9/4 the draw, maybe up to 12/5 say. For comparison Burnley-Everton this weekend is 9/4
Yet we can get 11/4 the draw in the market today
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-stoke/winnerit has to be at least half a point too high, and the 11/4 doesn't reflect the changes Lambert has made to shore things up (which may or may not keep them up, without many goals in the side)
for the more adventurous 0-0 and 1-1 have to be considered at nearly 10/1 and 13/2 respectively
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-stoke/correct-scoreRecommendations
The draw at 11/4 Betfred
0-0 or NGS 10/1 Hills
1-1 13/2 Hills