Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

i really dont like the italy uruguay draw bet its not as if the draw GTDs uruguay qualification as costa rica will just need to match uruguays result in the final games to get through
as it goes to head to head to decide postion in group so its not like thee germany austria game when they both knew a draw would see them through

The reason it's such a good bet is that there's the potential for the draw to start quite a bit shorter than 12-5, and practically no chance of it going off bigger. Therefore, it's a perfect trading spot if you can get enough on. Whether you like/fancy it is not really relevant in this spot ironside.

ah ok but doesnt that require a huge roll on betfair that fred doesnt have?

fred has a £6k roll mythically and if need be i assume the roll in exceptional high margin EV spots like this is effectively £100k if needed.

[OverTheBorder]

i really dont like the italy uruguay draw bet its not as if the draw GTDs uruguay qualification as costa rica will just need to match uruguays result in the final games to get through
as it goes to head to head to decide postion in group so its not like thee germany austria game when they both knew a draw would see them through

The reason it's such a good bet is that there's the potential for the draw to start quite a bit shorter than 12-5, and practically no chance of it going off bigger. Therefore, it's a perfect trading spot if you can get enough on. Whether you like/fancy it is not really relevant in this spot ironside.

ah ok but doesnt that require a huge roll on betfair that fred doesnt have?

fred has a £6k roll mythically and if need be i assume the roll in exceptional high margin EV spots like this is effectively £100k if needed.

Somewhere in Vegas a latte was just choked on

[TightEnd]

i really dont like the italy uruguay draw bet its not as if the draw GTDs uruguay qualification as costa rica will just need to match uruguays result in the final games to get through
as it goes to head to head to decide postion in group so its not like thee germany austria game when they both knew a draw would see them through

The reason it's such a good bet is that there's the potential for the draw to start quite a bit shorter than 12-5, and practically no chance of it going off bigger. Therefore, it's a perfect trading spot if you can get enough on. Whether you like/fancy it is not really relevant in this spot ironside.

ah ok but doesnt that require a huge roll on betfair that fred doesnt have?

fred has a £6k roll mythically and if need be i assume the roll in exceptional high margin EV spots like this is effectively £100k if needed.

not til it arrives back at gatwick its not.

lets hope hughes doesn't win top jockey, that frees up the betfair bankroll to lay the draw shorter if required

[RickBFA]

Billyhill are 11/8 Ryan and listen 5/2 in top jockey market. Both bigger than betfair. If you had no previous bets, I presume a bet on either would be wise given Chompy's assessment?

[arbboy]

Billyhill are 11/8 Ryan and listen 5/2 in top jockey market. Both bigger than betfair. If you had no previous bets, I presume a bet on either would be wise given Chompy's assessment?

I am seeding this market so it's my cash you are talking about and it's not a tight market at all but it's amazing what you can get matched.  I have laid a monkey on Ryan at 4/5 tonight on bf.  You never know if it's sharp or mug cash but u have to assume its sharp even though every firm in the world are odds against.  It's tough to know as surely you could walk into any shop tomorrow and get a monkey on Ryan at 5/4 or 11/8 in any of those firms.   If it's sharp cash what price does the sharp guy make Ryan to think backing him at 4/5 for a monkey is a value bet.

I have also got £50 at 10/1 Obrien to back matched after racing today  when every firm in the world is under 3/1 so you have to wonder sometimes who is matching your bets in these markets!

[TightEnd]

Billyhill are 11/8 Ryan and listen 5/2 in top jockey market. Both bigger than betfair. If you had no previous bets, I presume a bet on either would be wise given Chompy's assessment?

I am seeding this market so it's my cash you are talking about and it's not a tight market at all but it's amazing what you can get matched.  I have laid a monkey on Ryan at 4/5 tonight on bf.  You never know if it's sharp or mug cash but u have to assume its sharp even though every firm in the world are odds against.  It's tough to know as surely you could walk into any shop tomorrow and get a monkey on Ryan at 5/4 or 11/8 in any of those firms.

I have also got £50 at 10/1 Obrien to back matched so you have to wonder sometimes who is matching your bets in these markets!

is the £555 hughes at 5.1 you?

riding roughshod all over our market!

[arbboy]

Billyhill are 11/8 Ryan and listen 5/2 in top jockey market. Both bigger than betfair. If you had no previous bets, I presume a bet on either would be wise given Chompy's assessment?

I am seeding this market so it's my cash you are talking about and it's not a tight market at all but it's amazing what you can get matched.  I have laid a monkey on Ryan at 4/5 tonight on bf.  You never know if it's sharp or mug cash but u have to assume its sharp even though every firm in the world are odds against.  It's tough to know as surely you could walk into any shop tomorrow and get a monkey on Ryan at 5/4 or 11/8 in any of those firms.

I have also got £50 at 10/1 Obrien to back matched so you have to wonder sometimes who is matching your bets in these markets!

is the £555 hughes at 5.1 you?

riding roughshod all over our market!

  Yes that £555 is mine feel free to back it.  It is value i am giving it away!  Top price in the village is 3/1.  I am happy to accommodate!

[TightEnd]

Billyhill are 11/8 Ryan and listen 5/2 in top jockey market. Both bigger than betfair. If you had no previous bets, I presume a bet on either would be wise given Chompy's assessment?

I am seeding this market so it's my cash you are talking about and it's not a tight market at all but it's amazing what you can get matched.  I have laid a monkey on Ryan at 4/5 tonight on bf.  You never know if it's sharp or mug cash but u have to assume its sharp even though every firm in the world are odds against.  It's tough to know as surely you could walk into any shop tomorrow and get a monkey on Ryan at 5/4 or 11/8 in any of those firms.

I have also got £50 at 10/1 Obrien to back matched so you have to wonder sometimes who is matching your bets in these markets!

is the £555 hughes at 5.1 you?

riding roughshod all over our market!

  Yes that £555 is mine feel free to back it.  It is value i am giving it away!  Top price in the village is 3/1.  I am happy to accommodate!

no we need to lay back the rest of ours

got a world cup draw to lay back.....

[arbboy]

Billyhill are 11/8 Ryan and listen 5/2 in top jockey market. Both bigger than betfair. If you had no previous bets, I presume a bet on either would be wise given Chompy's assessment?

I am seeding this market so it's my cash you are talking about and it's not a tight market at all but it's amazing what you can get matched.  I have laid a monkey on Ryan at 4/5 tonight on bf.  You never know if it's sharp or mug cash but u have to assume its sharp even though every firm in the world are odds against.  It's tough to know as surely you could walk into any shop tomorrow and get a monkey on Ryan at 5/4 or 11/8 in any of those firms.

I have also got £50 at 10/1 Obrien to back matched so you have to wonder sometimes who is matching your bets in these markets!

is the £555 hughes at 5.1 you?

riding roughshod all over our market!

 Yes that £555 is mine feel free to back it.  It is value i am giving it away!  Top price in the village is 3/1.  I am happy to accommodate!

no we need to lay back the rest of ours

got a world cup draw to lay back.....

I have got to go to a hills shop tomorrow in south london (spending the week with my bird) that i have never been to in my life and try to get a grand on ryan in cash at 11/8 if i can't get this £555 laid.  Wish me luck!  Given mrs bandit said you could walk into any coral shop and get a grand on england today at 5/4 no problem i tried 5 shops in south london and got the grand sum of £50 between the 5 shops at 5/4.  All 5 shops i had never been in before in my life and i went in dressed in england shirt and semi pissed up!!  Mrs Bandit really does own the ability to get on in shops.  Those cakes must be good!

[Tal]

One day, arbboy, you'll slip up in your posts and leave the decimal point in. One day.

[arbboy]

If anyone on a full limit hills account (hills will lay a full limit account to win £2k ie £1400 at 11/8 now my account is 1% and i can get £14) can get me £1000 on ryan at 11/8 i will put a decent drink on top and transfer cash immediately for the bet to a reliable poster.  1st ever 'favour' i have asked for from the fred reg's would appreciate someone giving something back as a one off.

It's highly unlikely this bet would cause any long term damage to your account as hills would be happy to lay this bet given the large position they probably have on hughes given chompy's rec earlier in the week.

PM me if you can accommodate

[tikay]

i really dont like the italy uruguay draw bet its not as if the draw GTDs uruguay qualification as costa rica will just need to match uruguays result in the final games to get through
as it goes to head to head to decide postion in group so its not like thee germany austria game when they both knew a draw would see them through

The reason it's such a good bet is that there's the potential for the draw to start quite a bit shorter than 12-5, and practically no chance of it going off bigger. Therefore, it's a perfect trading spot if you can get enough on. Whether you like/fancy it is not really relevant in this spot ironside.

ah ok but doesnt that require a huge roll on betfair that fred doesnt have?

The suggestions put up are not aimed ONLY at Fred, they are for everyone. Just because Fred cannot, on occasion, bet them, does not mean peope should not suggest them for everyone else.

This seems to be the biggest misunderstanding on this thread - suggestions & recommendations are for everyone.

[arbboy]

Hills problem solved.  Someone off thread helped out.  Bet on.  They are VERY happy to accommodate Hughes layers at 11/8 i was offered £4k at 11/8 when i asked for £10k expecting to get £1k on a standard limit account.  Given Chompy makes it evens and i laid a monkey at 4/5 earlier on bf i would strongly suggest fred has a decent bet at 11/8 Hughes at hills.

[Dubai]

Just pmed u if u want more

[arbboy]

Just pmed u if u want more

cheers appreciate it dave but i got on no problem at all once i found an account via an off thread friend.  I personally think O'brien at 5/2 and 11/8 hughes coupled is a max bet for fred both with hills given chompy's analysis of the final 2 days.  I have laid some quite incred stuff on the market on bf on 4 or 5 jockeys over the past 3 days so i am done with the market now.  Maybe just a max on Ryan at 11/8 rather than coupled obrien bet thinkign more about it