bluff or not to bluff?

[SuuPRlim]

***** Hand History for Game 4455874210 ***** (IPoker)
$1000.00 USD PL Omaha - Thursday, January 10, 12:44:01 ET 2013
Table Craughwell (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 1: Cadi11ac ( $1018.00 USD )
Seat 3: HERO ( $1218.00 USD )
Seat 5: James44444 ( $990.00 USD )
Seat 8: GuyFawkes05 ( $2105.25 USD )
Seat 10: AllradBueffel85 ( $1000.00 USD )
James44444 posts small blind [$5.00 USD].
GuyFawkes05 posts big blind [$10.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [  ]
AllradBueffel85 raises [$35.00 USD]
Cadi11ac folds
HERO calls [$35.00 USD]
James44444 folds
GuyFawkes05 calls [$25.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]
GuyFawkes05 checks
AllradBueffel85 checks
HERO bets [$80.00 USD]
GuyFawkes05 folds
AllradBueffel85 calls [$80.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ ]
AllradBueffel85 checks
HERO bets [$205.00 USD]
AllradBueffel85 calls [$205.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ ]
AllradBueffel85 checks
HERO

Guy seems very weak/sticky, no reads....

[doubleup]

bump - did you bluff?  What bet size?

[pokerfan]

Can't help myself here, fire away.

[SuuPRlim]

kind of an interesting spot I guess.

IF we look at it from a theoretical perspective we should prolly start with these questions.

1) Whats the worst hand he calls with if we bet
2) Whats the worst hand I value bet

3) How many full houses does he have in his range
4) How many full houses do I have in my range

Also - how much showdown value I have is also to be considered.

[doubleup]

My basic thoughts:

you are specifically trying to bluff an overpair with a flush draw. 

As far a showdown value is concerned its only really relevant if he c-raise bluffs. 

From his point of view the fact that the nuts has changed on the river and you are still barreling might polarise you.

If you had flopped the str8 would you v-bet?  trip sixes?

[SuuPRlim]

My basic thoughts:

you are specifically trying to bluff an overpair with a flush draw. 

you are abso correct. Also a 6* hand that doesn't have an 7 or 8 with it, I think I'd defo Vbet T8 here, which makes 6*/QQ-AA the same thing pretty much although obviously he's a lot more likely to call with a 6.

[doubleup]

well presumably you should bet the same amount you would with the str8?  2/3 pot seem right?

[Oxford_HRV]

kind of an interesting spot I guess.

IF we look at it from a theoretical perspective we should prolly start with these questions.

1) Whats the worst hand he calls with if we bet
2) Whats the worst hand I value bet

3) How many full houses does he have in his range
4) How many full houses do I have in my range

Also - how much showdown value I have is also to be considered.

I think villain could.....!?!? call with JJ+ purely because they flatted the turn, subconsciously committing themselves and river card pairs the lowest card OTF and your line would less likely include a 6 in your range.  is villain weak passive or weak/calls light?
very inclined to put a 90%+ bet regardless

thinking from villains perspective OTR you have GTD T8XX+ if you pot bet river, if you half pot it looks like anything and everything from bluffs to quads

would 9's full be the only reasonable FH to assign an UTG pot bet pre?.. I think so
with you I presume all house's are in your range because you were checked to OTF and you will lead any set and 2p?

I'm saying villain probably has  99 JJ QQ KK AA, all naked NFD and rarely T8, would you expect villain to c/c T8 all the way? I think you have to bet just under pot on the river like a boss, suspect to see villain 'lol' call with 6XXX and fold OP, so hopefully you have a good image, haven't been hero'd recently, villain hasnt got 9's then this will get through (:

ACTUALLY SDV can be considered, my main presumption is villains range has a lot of big suited broadway hands! love to find out how to work out how often villain would have JJ+ in their hand and how many times it would just be suited broadway cards

[SuuPRlim]

I've not forgotten this!

Basic theory suggests that for any river spot like this you need a range that bets for value (pretty easy - any boat, possibly T8 read dependant) a range that bluffs, and a range that gives up, it's important that you don't bet this river with your entire range otherwise your flop/turn barreling frequencies will have to be much lower than average (so you get to the river with sufficient hands to bet for value to allow you to bet every hand as bluff.

My Range OTR includes EVERY boat, with the exception of 44 (and 64 v unlikely) T8, missed flush draws and ofc a fair few bluffs - mostly that involve blockers/FD's/Gutshots but I've called an UTG open from MP so those hands do kind of smash my range, I'd play every combo basically like this here as well so my range is wide.

So every hand that isn't a boat, or T8 (T8 is a unique hand here) I have to divide between my range that "gives up" and that bluffs. Having already established I can't bluff everything need to look at the different hands I will have.

Now, naturally you could say - surely the first hands we put into our bluffing range here will be our no-pair hands, hands that have literally no chance of winning at showdown -You Can't Win if You Check (and so on) and the hands with the highest amount of showdown value are the ones that go into the range to check back. You could break down your range here OTR and find a pretty suitable frequency using those guidelines pretty easily.

However card removal is an important thing to consider here, as any hand that involves the  means you're opponent has a lot less "folding combo's"  as OP with NFD is quite a big part of his range we want to bluff off. By the same measure, any hand we have that includes a 9 or a 7 is a much more desirable hand to bluff with as we block two crucial hands.

So a Hand like this one, with three important blockers seems like a hand we should bluff with? but are there hands in our range that NEED to bluff more than this one, is my main question.