Liverpool's price tonight is laughable.

Currently:
Liverpool 2.14/2.16
Chelsea 3.6/3.65
Draw 3.75/3.8

Underpricing of Liverpool has occurred all season long, but was it nieve of me to think that people would learn from their mistakes?

Liverpool's home record has been even worse than their away record this year, time after time they've underperformed, Chelsea are finishing the season on a high and comprehensively outplayed Liverpool at the weekend. Sure Chelsea will rest some players, but Liverpool will too.

Edit: I'm laying Liverpool at 2.14, just based on the price, I think they should be closer to 2.6 or 2.7- will trade my position later if people realise the mispricing in-play and it goes sharply up.

[Today?]

Today?

We have £50 @ 15/8 on Wigan, (8pm tonight, televised), from dazzy, & thats it, there is no other Premiership football today.

The play-offs continue tomorrow, & we should get some interest there. 

Now 13/8 with Betfair just to let you know... people finally woke up, Wigan now favourites.

RUDonking just tex: "Bet of the season Bolton 5/2 to stay up - surely they win at Stoke and QPR lose at Man City?"

Going to Stoke never easy imo.

WTF is going on with the Spurs drift?

1.85 last night. 2.02 now.

I can't work it out either...

How much of a factor do you think that fighting for survival is? I know it's a bit of a general question, but I think others would have more experience than me about whether the formbook gets turned upside down at the end of the season or not.

I've had decent sized bets on Spurs and Wigan, and the price has drifted on one and held firm in the other, where I would expect both to come in. This, i'm assuming, is due to the end-of-season scrapping factor.

Ordinarily I wouldn't bother posting on this moribund thread, but since i just won a sat to the DTD500 i thought I should pipe up xx

Insane hedge...

Don't get it. Must be a privet joke.

zzing

Lovely for Newcastle, delighted for them and well deserved. Cheers for that Tikay, keep 'em coming! Only joking, I had them backed myself (very small) anyway but I didn't have confidence enough to tip them for the thread, that's why I wanted you to tip them!

Wigan are 2/1 with Boylesports to win at Blackburn this Monday coming with Blackburn best priced 6/4. Utter nonsense imo and I can't understand this price.

Blackburns home form is W6 D 1 L11, Wigans away form W5 D 3 L10 so almost exactly comparable even on a season long comparison.
But of course over recent form Blackburn have lost 6 of their last 7 and look completely disinterested. And Wigan are in sparkling form (Fulham defeat aside) over a similar timeframe.
It's a must win game for both but Blackburn have not responded to being in 'must win' scenarios and Wigan clearly have. If results go against them beforehand, Blackburn might be virtually relegated by the time it kicks off.
I simply can't see that price remaining as it is for long so I would suggest £50 Wigan win now and keep an eye for maybe further top-ups if the price does remain.

I'm also looking at a bit of a Banzai. Swansea are currently 20/1 to win at Old Trafford on Sunday w Betfair. By the time that match kicks off, the earlier Newcastle vs Man City game will be over. IF Man City win, the league is effectively gone for United. I'm recommending a MAX BET of £150  £10.

Came on to say the same as Daz's point about the Wigan price, completely agree. As you're on already though I'll suggest looking at another bet in the Utd-Swansea match.

If City DONT win at St James', I think you should look at the 4.5 goal market in the United match. Goal difference is looking like it could be crucial, so if all is still to play for then I expect Utd to set out to try and score as many as possible. Swansea have changed from the team we've seen all season in recent weeks; it seems to me that they've lost a lot of the solidity they had at the back earlier in the season while retaining their ability to attack effectively. It was seriously un-Swansea-like to concede 4 goals last week against Wolves.

Whenever I've looked at the 4.5's market for normal games the price to lay unders is generally 1.16 to 1.22 ish, but at the moment it's around 1.36, so it's a bit high, but I think it's still worth keeping an eye on. I'm mentioning the lay prices as I tend to lay the unders rather than back the overs in the same market, by all means find the best price available.

Counter arguments for the bet would be that Utd haven't really shown the ability to smash 5 past a team for quite a while now, and also that Brendan Rodgers has proved himself a very good manager and won't let his team lie down.

I don't like the look of this Bolton game anymore. Spurs look dangerous. I'm getting out for a small loss (posting this so you can all laugh at me later when Bolton win)

Tikay, you have mentioned Newcastle a couple of times now. I know you are tempted. Why don't you put up one of your own? Back 'em!
I couldn't put you off. Newcastle won 6 in a row before their off day against Europes finest (Wigan) last week. Quite a few changes for Chelsea too. I think their bench is way stronger than the likes of Pools last night but even still, Newcastle will be giving it everything.
Put yourself up son!

Agree, you'll only kick yourself if you don't bet after wanting to Tony. No need to put too much at risk, laying to win £50 costs £25 at the moment. Chelsea are underpriced for sure.

Having advised Pune to win in the IPL I think a quick match report is in order.

Decca  batted first and after 10 overs were 49-2 and could hardly hit the ball off the square, the match was seemingly won. Time to back the truck up as it were. Even if they batted well a total of about 140/150 was the best they could realistically reach, an easy target on this pitch. So a change of tactics was not called for, but that is what we got. 2 new bowlers appeared for our gallant Pune warriors- Paveev Lobaballabit, and Sergio Fulltossatini. Over the last 10 overs Decca managed to score almost 140 runs and reached 186.
 
In reply Pune lost a wicket on the first ball to a shot that was the epitome of catching practice for mid-off and the damage was done. We did get to the final over with 25 needed but at no point were we ever in with a  realistic chance of winning.

I can not recall ever seeing such inept bowling from a side, and I have watched a lot of theses IPL matches. That and the manner of the first Pune dismissal makes me very suspicious of the integrity of this particular match.

One of the best all-round batsmen in the world in Kumar Sangakarra and Cameron White, the Australian 20/20 captain, play slowly for a while and then start smashing the ball all over the park, and you automatically assume that the bowler's were letting them do it so it's a fixed match? White scored 3 6's and a 4 in one over bowled by Indian Cricketing legend Saurav Ganguly... think he was thowing the match then?  I understand anger when losing money, but you shouldn't lead people to believe that the IPL is fixed. It's not.

Wouldn't leave the Bolton bet too long, I envisage the 4.4 won't last.

The match I want to get with Bolton is when Muamba either tuns up at the stadium or at training the day before a game.

"Win this one for me" he'll say.

Can't imagine a bigger motivational tool.

Wonder when Coyle will use his trump card.

Good point, will be interesting.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17895262

'Fabrice Muamba could attend Bolton v Tottenham match'

Bolton win is currently about 3/1....

I like this line of thinking, and the bet. Spurs have been poor for a while; can take nothing from beating Blackburn 2-0, BB were atrocious.

Can lay Spurs at just under evens. Looks like a low price to me.

I had a dream.....

Well I did but not about this.

IPL cricket Decca v Pune k.o 11.30am today.

Decca are bottom of the league with only 1 win, which was last week against Pune. Most importantly though in the games I have watched them they have looked like a bunch of uninterested individuals and they have no realistic chance of getting to the playoffs. In the last 2 games they have even dropped/rested their best bowler Steyn and  then their captain Sangakarra, quite bizarre  really. Today Pune should  have the Australian captain Michael Clarke making his debut and this should ensure a professional performance which is probably all they need to win the game.

I recommend £50 Pune to win @ 4/5 available with Corals and Sportingbet.

I would expect both Sangakarra and Steyn to play today, Clarke isn't certain to start; even if he does he's not got a huge 20/20 reputation.

Deccan beat Pune last week in Pune even without Steyn http://www.espncricinfo.com/indian-premier-league-2012/engine/match/548341.html.

I personally wouldn't back Pune at under evens in this match. Deccan's home pitch has a reputation for being slow-scoring, I've seen a tip to lay over 150 runs for whoever bats first, think i'll get involved on that.

Edit: Sorry, again got distracted at work and didn't post quickly enough, I see you've got the bet on now. It's got every chance of winning, good luck.

Would anyone be willing to put a bet on Ladbrokes on for me in return for a transfer on Stars? Having real trouble getting money on there and I love the 170 checkout bet in Taylor/Whitlock.

Edit: I'm off out now, so don't worry. Good luck all tonight.

[ON]

France to win the Euro's and Benzema top scorer double. 150/1 with willhill.
Stick £5 on and by the time it settles it'll be too small to show up in the audit.
France got a nice enough group for bottom seeds. Price seems a bit big compared to the other "big" nations probably because Giroud is making a strong case for being the main striker.
David Villa/Spain landed/split in the last 2 tournaments. He might not be fit so they're looking for somebody to step up. We don't have Rooney for a couple of games (lolz that I bothered to mention us) Gomez is Germany's main hope for top scorer and I think he's yet to score at a major tournament despite going to 2. That Van Persie lad is having an alright season but they're in a group with the Germans so hopefully they get dealt with.  

Bit far away but pretty harmless to the roll and hopefully a decent one to rail.  

Perfect, a ton of fun for a fiver, thank you.  Our very first Euro 2012 bet, too. Guess there may be a few more soon.......

£5, France to win Euro12/Benzema Top Scorer @ 150/1.

ON


23 Apr 12 / 21:10  Single 1   Euro 2012 - Winning Nation/Top Goalscorer Doubles  –  Winning Nation/Top Goalscorer Doubles France/Karim Benzema @ 150/1 – £5.00 O/0457483/0000005/F  

Haven't really looked at France's team recently, but I've been very impressed with Benzema every time I've watched Real Madrid.

I'm on... c'mon the kid

Greg, after all that effort, and an hour of writing, how can I refuse?

Not sure I fancy it enough for a decent bet, but have had £25 @ exactly 4 on Betfair.

Cannot copy or "proof" at mo, am on the ippy.

ON!

Haha, the notes themselves certainly didn't warrant an hour's writing, was far more of a case of getting interrupted 3 or 4 times for each sentence written.

First time you've followed me, gl us.

I'd recommend a bet on Norwich to beat Blackburn today, currently 3.95/4 with Betfair, http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/blackburn-v-norwich/winner/best-odds/.

I believe that the odds are the way they are due to it being a 'must-win' game for Blackburn, but based on their last effort against Swansea, and the seemingly well-informed suggestions posted on here about discord in the Blackburn camp, I personally am not convinced Blackburn will be able to pick their game up sufficiently to beat a good Norwich side.

Positive points about opposing Blackburn:

- Suggestions of disunity in the team
- Shambolic defence vs impressive Norwich attack
- What I think is an unrealistic price; I think that the recent results of Norwich are deceptive- there are a few losses there, but all tough games (1-0 loss to Newc, Stoke, 2-1 to fulham), with the excellent win at Spurs and the awful loss to a resergent City. Blackburn are not as good as any of the teams I just mentioned.

Negative points:

- It's a fact that Blackburn are desperate for the points, they'll have identified it as the easiest game of their run-in-fixtures so should be going all-out for the win, Norwich are safe, so could be taking it easy.
- Perhaps Blackburn could be spurred along by the home-crowd in this crucial match (though I suspect that the crowd is just as likely to get on the team/manager's back should things start badly).


I'm super-busy at work, so had hoped to analyse this more (taken me over an hour to find time just to write this!). Blackburn looked seriously lackluster last week at Swansea, and I have the feeling that there is a collapse on the cards.

I should stress that as I've analysed this bet i'm less happy with it, I don't think it's a sure-thing by any means, but I still think there's value in the price being offered on Norwich, I've personally only invested a small amount.

An alternative bet in this match would be goals- my favourite way to bet on this would be to get involved should it be 0-0 after 15-20 mins, then bet on over 2.5 or 3.5's at the inflated price.