Its like reality TV but wuith poker

Spot on... i find myself wanting to take the piss out of everything, must resist. I think I would sound just as ridic. Maybe.


Edit: misread the screen

some nice flirting going on in the break

best thing ever

[9/2]

Been reading this thread every day and loving it, and now it is time for me to put forward my first tip.

Mumbai Indians to win the IPL @ 9/2 (Bet365, Betfred, BlueSquare)
Starts tomorrow with a match between Mumbai and reigning champions Chennai

Mumbai were losing semi-finalists in this last season and then went on to win the 2011 Champions League T20

They have made a number of decent signings, including South African opening batsman Levi, Wicket keeper batsman Karthik and two of the highest IPL Wicket takers RP Singh and Ojha.
Add those to the already impressive squad including Tendulkar, Pollard, Harbihjan Singh and Malinga and in my opinion they should be favourites.
Tendulkar has stepped down as captain to concentrate on his game leaving the way for Harbihjan to captain the side as he did to the Champions League title.

Will leave the bet amount up to you Tikay if you decide to go for it.

Agree that they are super-strong this year, but every team I look at seem super-strong in their own way! Without analysing too much, Bangalore... Gayle/Dilshan/De Villiers...Vettori, Muralitharan, Khan ... i could do the same for several other teams, gonna be some brilliant matches.

In the office my boss did an experiment last year... he put in a few hundred to lay on both teams at 1.33 in 10 games and left the bets... he got matched in 7 out of the 10 games he put it on and came out with some very nice profit. Twenty20 matches best thing for trading ever imo. More swings than a playground.

Oh fuck they just gave us 30k in cash and there's a casino between us and the room ..... GG us

Hahahaha, Brilliant lads, made my day this one. Don't come back till you're won a mill... should be another week or so the way this trip is going so far.

NICE, go on the pizzzzzzzz !!!

So happy I found this thread... amazing degen behaviour. Top stuff.

A massive GL to both in the ME, keep us updated!

Hate that somehow this thread has picked up bitter toby's who fancy a troll.

Over 2.5 Wolves vs Bolton, currently 1.94 on Betfair looks big to me. Wolves can't defend to save their lives, Bolton have kept 2 clean sheets since November.

Ugh, so unlucky for the Brumbies, tough one guys

Myself and Fraser mentioned this match back on page 132. We both felt the price was wrong then. Since then Newcastle have drifted.
The team news is overall a plus for Pool.
Coloccini has been confirmed out so that may account for Newcastles market drift as he is indeed a big loss. Ryan Taylor is back after a few games out and he is a welcome addition to a stretched backline. He will presumably take the left back spot with Perch moving into the centre. Tiote is also back and will surely slot into centre mid. Both of those returning are decent additions but Coloccinis loss probably overshadows the pluses. The 2 games he's missed this season have been a 0-3 at home to Chelsea (off injured after 26 mins at 0-0) and a 2-4 away defeat to Norwich. It does however help the 'over 2.5 goals' bet.
Pool may have Glen Johnson, Martin Kelly and Dan Agger back. If either Johnson or Kelly are back they could come in for the inexperienced Flanagan and Agger would replace Carragher who seems to be on a steep decline.
Pool have won more away matches (6) than at Anfield (5) possibly due to the pressure of home fans expectations and I would be more inclined to lay them at home where their price is obviously shorter. I think they are a cracking lay at home to Villa on 7th April.

A stat maybe worth noting is that Pool have won 6 of the last 7 meetings. The other game being Newcastles 3-1 in this fixture last season. I think that stat can be discounted slightly by the fact that the Newcastle sides that were losing those games were struggling sides and not the current one vying for Europe.
Having said all that, I still think Newcastle are too big and have backed accordingly. Maybe wait until Sunday for updated team news before having a bet but if it looks like Flanagan + Carragher are playing, I'll be having a bet on over 4.5 goals (6/1 Ladbrokes).

Thanks for the views... made me think a bit. Realised you're right about Coloccini only missing 2 games... I was under the impression that they had survived a spell without him; I think I'll be looking to lay out of my unders bets depending on the teams.

Fairly happy with my lay of Liverpool still though. There are players in the team who can perform well individually, but Newcastle are much more of a team than Liverpool this season; imo Liverpool should not be favourites to go there and get a win.

The talk that I've read about the match is about Andy Carroll... no basis to think that he'll do anything in this match for me.

As far as your overs bet goes Tikay, I agree with Dazzler that if the teams are right it looks like a good bet; if they are then the flip-flop half-time full-time results (i.e. Liv /Newc FT, and the opposite) could be worth a couple of quid at the high odds.

We have a Mondy footie bet lined up for Sunday, over 2.5 goals needed in Newc v Liverpool.

I've been away for a bit but came on to post my thoughts on this match... have flicked through the last 5 pages or so but can't find where this was recommended, so I'll post anyway and you can do what you will with the advice!

I'd actually like some 'neutral' feedback on this, as in the past I have stayed away from betting for or against Liverpool, as I support them and find my heart often rules my head when thinking about them, however I've thought quite a lot about this match.

Firstly I tried to imagine what the Match Odds would be considering recent form; Liverpool have been shocking recently, disjointed and when goals have come they have tended to be flashes of individualism rather than team goals- Newcastle on the other hand looked mighty impressive against West Brom, have virtually their full team back and the game is being played at St James'. With that in mind I thought that the Match Odds would be Newcastle: 2.4-2.6, Liverpool:3.3ish, Draw: 3-3.2. I was shocked to see that the odds are actually Newc 3.15, Liv 2.44, Draw, 3.55. I believe there is value on all three prices; backing Newcastle, laying Liverpool, backing Draw. Personally I've laid Liverpool at 2.46, but I think the draw at 3.55 is a good bet.

As far as how I expect the game itself to play out, I actually think it'll be tight (sorry to go against the previous tip). Last week Newcastle's goals all came on the counter-attack, with Ben Arfa, Ba and Cisse working dynamically together, however Liverpool this season have set themselves up so that they are not very vulnerable to the counter-attack; even if a Liverpool attack starts quickly the ball tends to be played backwards so that the team keeps the solid shape, so if the ball is lost there are generally not big gaps they can be exploited with. I think the game will be cagey and that neither side will find it easy to score, but for me if anyone will win the game it'll be Newcastle.

A counter-argument to this is that Liverpool do tend to play better against the 'big' teams, and I think they'll be treating Newcastle as such on Sunday, especially after their own recent slump; it's also possible that Suarez or Gerrard will come up with something special, but I think Newcastle are good enough to keep them at bay.

The last time the two played each other was 30/12/11 at Anfield, Liverpool won 3-1, with two good goals from Bellamy and Gerrard (who had just returned from injury) very influencial, scoring the 3rd goal. We should note that Newcastle were on a bad run of form at the time, having won one of the previous 8 games. This time it's Liverpool who are on the bad run (lost five of their last six Premier League matches, including their last three on the road), and Newcastle really impressed me last week, when many expected West Brom to do well.

Sometimes when I write this much about a match it's a case of 'who are you trying to convince?', but on this occasion I truly believe that the match odds are wrong. I'd be very happy to hear any other points of view that agree or disagree with me.

Greg,

Mondy's tip for this was on Page 135 - this thread gallops through the pages!

See.....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.msg1536161#msg1536161

I'd really like to get Mondy on the scorecard. We are friends, but I never converse with him in real life, as he cannot speak English.

No problem at all, I wanted to write my views down somewhere to get feedback anyway, I understand you going with Mond's bet. Having read his post it seems I missed the fact that Coloccini will be out, which is quite a big factor; it would change all my projected prices, but I still feel that Newcastle should definately be favourites for this game.

We have a Mondy footie bet lined up for Sunday, over 2.5 goals needed in Newc v Liverpool.

I've been away for a bit but came on to post my thoughts on this match... have flicked through the last 5 pages or so but can't find where this was recommended, so I'll post anyway and you can do what you will with the advice!

I'd actually like some 'neutral' feedback on this, as in the past I have stayed away from betting for or against Liverpool, as I support them and find my heart often rules my head when thinking about them, however I've thought quite a lot about this match.

Firstly I tried to imagine what the Match Odds would be considering recent form; Liverpool have been shocking recently, disjointed and when goals have come they have tended to be flashes of individualism rather than team goals- Newcastle on the other hand looked mighty impressive against West Brom, have virtually their full team back and the game is being played at St James'. With that in mind I thought that the Match Odds would be Newcastle: 2.4-2.6, Liverpool:3.3ish, Draw: 3-3.2. I was shocked to see that the odds are actually Newc 3.15, Liv 2.44, Draw, 3.55. I believe there is value on all three prices; backing Newcastle, laying Liverpool, backing Draw. Personally I've laid Liverpool at 2.46, but I think the draw at 3.55 is a good bet.

As far as how I expect the game itself to play out, I actually think it'll be tight (sorry to go against the previous tip). Last week Newcastle's goals all came on the counter-attack, with Ben Arfa, Ba and Cisse working dynamically together, however Liverpool this season have set themselves up so that they are not very vulnerable to the counter-attack; even if a Liverpool attack starts quickly the ball tends to be played backwards so that the team keeps the solid shape, so if the ball is lost there are generally not big gaps they can be exploited with. I think the game will be cagey and that neither side will find it easy to score, but for me if anyone will win the game it'll be Newcastle.

A counter-argument to this is that Liverpool do tend to play better against the 'big' teams, and I think they'll be treating Newcastle as such on Sunday, especially after their own recent slump; it's also possible that Suarez or Gerrard will come up with something special, but I think Newcastle are good enough to keep them at bay.

The last time the two played each other was 30/12/11 at Anfield, Liverpool won 3-1, with two good goals from Bellamy and Gerrard (who had just returned from injury) very influencial, scoring the 3rd goal. We should note that Newcastle were on a bad run of form at the time, having won one of the previous 8 games. This time it's Liverpool who are on the bad run (lost five of their last six Premier League matches, including their last three on the road), and Newcastle really impressed me last week, when many expected West Brom to do well.

Sometimes when I write this much about a match it's a case of 'who are you trying to convince?', but on this occasion I truly believe that the match odds are wrong. I'd be very happy to hear any other points of view that agree or disagree with me.

LOL at him pausing when asked if it was best goal he'd ever scored.

He was probably remembering a couple of his scissor kicks. Love the Crouchy, top man.

Amazing stuff from Dubai. Sort of thing that should make odds setters change markets in the future. Unless we take the analysis down  

If requested, I would.

Perhaps get Mr S's opinion on this? I'd hate for it to become counterproductive for him to post analysis like this.

I'm sure Mr S has considered that. He did, after all, Post it.

Fair enough Mr K    x