empty clip?

[Flash92]

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/6629182_30D94EDDF0

BU is superlaggy, been 3Bing me and showing down 23s etc. SB is massive fish running 74/14.

Thoughts on all streets esp. river.

[PathFinder]

Firstly I would just fold pre from this position. As played I like the 4bet pre rather than call. In terms of emptying the clip, from a GTO perspective I think it's fine but we sometimes have to be willing to deviate from a GTO line. I think because how the villian is described and his calling station stats I think we can probably slow down. Not 100% sure tho if we should just chk back river or chk back turn....

[zerofive]

Over how many hands? Do we have post-flop stats on sb?

Problem is how massive we're supposed to be on this texture, yet he doesn't want to fold turn when we block two nut draws. Flop and turn standard imo, but if the second barrel doesn't work on this runout then I don't think we get enough folds on the river to pile, especially as you describe villain as someone who likes to call. We might get him to fold the absolute bottom, KJ/JT/TT but I'm not sure it works out as a profitable bluff.

Having said that I'm not sure what range of hands we're supposed to be bluffing with on this river, but probably not much stuff that contains the

[Honeybadger]

Don't really like treble barrelling this board vs a guy playing 74/14. However, it can still be good to double barrel since often these guys call once with bottom/middle pair or weak draws hoping to improve and/or get to SD. And they often fold the turn unimproved. Given that you have good equity when called I like your turn bluff, but I would just pussy out on the river once your turn bet has been called. It is not necessarily weak play to be two-and-done... it can be a very good exploitative adjustment vs guys who peel flops very light but probably won't continue on the turn unimproved. You crush them in two ways:

A) through punishing their weak flop range by forcing them to fold 'too often' on the turn.
B) through being extremely value-heavy (i.e. no bluffs) on the river when they have indicated by their turn call they have a strong part of their range this time and thus they are not folding.

[shipitgood]

No idea what 74/14 is.

Fold pre flop. Fold to the 3 bet.

Ok fair enough 4 bet if it was just the 3 better in the pot, but with the cold call you really should be done with the hand.

Just about the best flop you could have asked for. Definatly have 2 bet the flop.

Turn is the easiest check ever.

River card is a total brick, and can't see your opponent folding anything he has called you with on the turn.

Never used any tracking software, i can see why people use it, but at this level most decisions should be pretty straight forward.

[pleno1]

Definitely don't fold to the 3bet but folding initially is best. Now we're getting 60 to win 2.40 with fish in the pot just call is fine especially as both ranges as described are weak.

Flop I don't mind checking back, betting is wte.

Turn is a clear clear check back and give up and try to improve and I don't think it's very close. I think we v v v rarely get folds on this turn card.

On the river its an absolute suicide bluff and I really really really don't like it he's just never folding.

[Honeybadger]

Turn is a clear clear check back and give up and try to improve and I don't think it's very close. I think we v v v rarely get folds on this turn card.

Whilst you may be right that checking back the turn has a higher EV than betting, I think it is completely wrong to say that it is not at all close. This is exactly the sort of spot that pretty much HAS to be close! Because we have such good pot equity that we don't need many folds at all before betting has a higher EV than checking back. Too rushed right now so can't do the fold equity maths, but we are only going to need a small amount of folds to make betting better than checking. Particularly as the wider the opponent calls the more equity we have in the pot (we might even sometimes have the best hand, best draw).

In some of your PHA posts I often feel that when you comment "it is not close at all" that it actually is pretty close! And this seems to be an example.

Obviously it depends on reads of the opponent. My experience with these really loose players is that they make a ton of very light flop peels, and then fold unimproved on the turns so by double barrelling them we are punishing them for having too weak a range on the flop. Perhaps your experience is different to this.

Actually, the result of the hand sort of proves my point (although I hate this results orientated stuff, so apologies). Villain is almost always going to fold his hand on the turn... but he turned trips!

[pleno1]

i think we have less than 5% fold equity on the turn. i dont think we get hero folds on the river either. i think barreling these turns is bad simply because i dont expect them to fold.

i dont think people peel that wide on aqx, its not like they are going to peel 9t, and the j improves all the light floats, jj, kj, jt.

maybe he can fold tt and possbily 99 but giving him all these combos seems ridiculous and i expect him to have way way way more combos that dont fold meaning we either have to bet 3 times or 1 time on this board, and vs these opponents at nl10, i think betting thrice is usually going to be pretty damn spewy.

[Honeybadger]

I agree that betting thrice is spewy. Plus I love the use of the word thrice.

Just a difference of opinion really about loose players' flop peeling ranges, and what they will do with this range on the turn unimproved. Although tbh I don't necessarily disagree with you. I just disagree with the idea that it is not at all close.

[pleno1]

i think betting thrice is spewy, but i think its far superior to betting twice in this spot, wouldnt you agree?

i guess the whole argument comes down to how wide he peels the flop. if it was a82 id agree, but its aqx and i think that changes things alot as in fishes eyes our range is high card heavy. even if hes not thinking in ranges he still is, if that makes sense.

[Honeybadger]

I tend to disagree with your first sentence. Although I do get the point that the J turn gives him gutshots with some of his Qx hands and a pair with some of his flopped gutters. And this is definitely an argument for firing the river if you choose to fire the turn. However, my advice about bluffing the turn being good (without having to bluff the river) is based on the fact that he is playing 74/14. So for example when he peels second pair on the flop he is not just going to have KQ, QJ, QT etc... he is going to have a ton of rag Qx hands like Q7 suited and the like. For that matter he can also have some underpairs (as he in fact turns out to have) and perhaps even some 2x hands.

Your second paragraph I do agree with. It does indeed depend on how wide we peceive his range to be on the flop. Btw I like your point about how opponent is thinking in terms of ranges even though he doesn't realise it - a really good way of expressing it

Perhaps the preflop action (he had to cold call a 3bet) narrows his range so that he is unlikely to have stuff like Q7 or 52s in his range. Which would certainly be an argument in favour of simply checking back the turn.

[pleno1]

Yeah that was he main reason for me thinking his range was more narrow. In a hu pot I'd be more inclined to agree with you, but in this instance I think he folds k2/32/q8