NFL Betting blog

[cooler]

Thoughts On Bears vs Lions>?

[Goosey82]

Overs.

[Sheriff Fatman]

I took Cincinatti +2.5 when the early lines came out and the line is now -1, -1.5 so I obviously wasn't the only one.

Also tempted by Tampa Bay +2.5 and Tennessee +3.5, but will decide nearer kickoff.  Don't like betting against the Steelers at home generally, but they're banged up and have big O-line issues so I think Tennessee might have a shot.

In the end I took the Tennessee bet, but didn't pull the trigger on Tampa Bay, figuring that the short-week and East-West travel didn't favour them.

Didn't expect both games to be quite the blow-outs that they were.  49ers definitely the surprise package so far this year, for me.  I put last week's win down more to the inadequacy of the Eagles but 48-3 vs Tampa Bay deserves some respect.

Steelers once again did what the Steelers usually do when they show signs of being vulnerable.  They're the NFL equivalent of Germany in International Football.

[TightEnd]

Overs.

I think I like this too. over/under Quotes are around 40 are they not?

Of course the trend this season is for a lot of points

Stafford/Megatron and co will always put up points

Chicago have Forte to keep them in the game, and the Detroit secondary is the weakest part of the defence

Usually tempted in these divisional matchups to back the underdog. Chicago at + 5.5 but to me Cutler is the equivalent of a timeform squiggle...not to be trusted not to jack it in when it gets tough

[TheChipPrince]

Overs.

I think I like this too. over/under Quotes are around 40 are they not?

Of course the trend this season is for a lot of points

Stafford/Megatron and co will always put up points

Chicago have Forte to keep them in the game, and the Detroit secondary is the weakest part of the defence

Usually tempted in these divisional matchups to back the underdog. Chicago at + 5.5 but to me Cutler is the equivalent of a timeform squiggle...not to be trusted not to jack it in when it gets tough

Know diddly squat about this but checked on oddschcker and 47 seems to be the points line.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Overs.

I think I like this too. over/under Quotes are around 40 are they not?

Of course the trend this season is for a lot of points

Stafford/Megatron and co will always put up points

Chicago have Forte to keep them in the game, and the Detroit secondary is the weakest part of the defence

Usually tempted in these divisional matchups to back the underdog. Chicago at + 5.5 but to me Cutler is the equivalent of a timeform squiggle...not to be trusted not to jack it in when it gets tough

I think this game could be a lot closer than most seem to believe, being a divisional game on MNF, but the line at +5.5 isn't enough to tempt me to bet on it.  If the Lions get out of the gate quickly then it could turn into a blowout, especially if it forces Chicago to abandon the run fairly early on.  However, they've failed to do this in their last two games and have had to rely on making big comebacks so I'm not confident that it pans out like this.  Bizarrely, I think it's either a 14+ point blowout or will be within 3 points either way, so not much good to me for betting purposes!

I don't think there's any value in the O/U either as the line is 47-48 depending on where you look.  If anything I'd probably go under this if I had to choose, but I expect it to finish up right around this sort of range so not tempted in the slightest.

[Goosey82]

Line is 47.5, Detroit averaging 32 points a game against an overated Bears defense who are 30th against the pass and 31st in total yards given up, Megatron bound to have a huge game. Chicago finally able to run the ball last week, got big points/field position advantage from their special teams, makes it overs for me.

[kukushkin88]

Overs.

I think I like this too. over/under Quotes are around 40 are they not?

Of course the trend this season is for a lot of points

Stafford/Megatron and co will always put up points

Chicago have Forte to keep them in the game, and the Detroit secondary is the weakest part of the defence

Usually tempted in these divisional matchups to back the underdog. Chicago at + 5.5 but to me Cutler is the equivalent of a timeform squiggle...not to be trusted not to jack it in when it gets tough

I think this game could be a lot closer than most seem to believe, being a divisional game on MNF, but the line at +5.5 isn't enough to tempt me to bet on it.  If the Lions get out of the gate quickly then it could turn into a blowout, especially if it forces Chicago to abandon the run fairly early on.  However, they've failed to do this in their last two games and have had to rely on making big comebacks so I'm not confident that it pans out like this.  Bizarrely, I think it's either a 14+ point blowout or will be within 3 points either way, so not much good to me for betting purposes!

I don't think there's any value in the O/U either as the line is 47-48 depending on where you look.  If anything I'd probably go under this if I had to choose, but I expect it to finish up right around this sort of range so not tempted in the slightest.

Just a question as I´m still very much learning about NFL betting. The first paragraph of this analysis ^^ (which I very much agree with) leads to me think that Chicago are probably value on the money line at 11/5. I was thinking along similar lines for the Atl/GB game but that didn´t go too well. It seems that in games where a team looks vulnerable to getting blown away but seemingly has an excellent chance in a close game the value lies in the money line rather than the points spread. Is my thinking along the right lines or am I missing something?

[cooler]

gonna have a punt on Overs, Chicago..., been using VC for donkeys, but fancy a change Matchbook or Betfair ? any other recommendations

[kukushkin88]

Line is 47.5, Detroit averaging 32 points a game against an overated Bears defense who are 30th against the pass and 31st in total yards given up, Megatron bound to have a huge game. Chicago finally able to run the ball last week, got big points/field position advantage from their special teams, makes it overs for me.

Chicago ranked 30th against the pass is a bit misleading imo, they´ve played Rodgers/Brees and a Carolina passing offensive that is going very well. They´re no world beaters but 30th isn´t a fair reflection. Barring a post from Redarmi to the contrary I´ll be playing under on the points and Chicago on the money line.

[cooler]

gonna have a punt on Overs, Chicago..., been using VC for donkeys, but fancy a change Matchbook or Betfair ? any other recommendations

oops Detroit 

[Sheriff Fatman]

Overs.

I think I like this too. over/under Quotes are around 40 are they not?

Of course the trend this season is for a lot of points

Stafford/Megatron and co will always put up points

Chicago have Forte to keep them in the game, and the Detroit secondary is the weakest part of the defence

Usually tempted in these divisional matchups to back the underdog. Chicago at + 5.5 but to me Cutler is the equivalent of a timeform squiggle...not to be trusted not to jack it in when it gets tough

I think this game could be a lot closer than most seem to believe, being a divisional game on MNF, but the line at +5.5 isn't enough to tempt me to bet on it.  If the Lions get out of the gate quickly then it could turn into a blowout, especially if it forces Chicago to abandon the run fairly early on.  However, they've failed to do this in their last two games and have had to rely on making big comebacks so I'm not confident that it pans out like this.  Bizarrely, I think it's either a 14+ point blowout or will be within 3 points either way, so not much good to me for betting purposes!

I don't think there's any value in the O/U either as the line is 47-48 depending on where you look.  If anything I'd probably go under this if I had to choose, but I expect it to finish up right around this sort of range so not tempted in the slightest.

Just a question as I´m still very much learning about NFL betting. The first paragraph of this analysis ^^ (which I very much agree with) leads to me think that Chicago are probably value on the money line at 11/5. I was thinking along similar lines for the Atl/GB game but that didn´t go too well. It seems that in games where a team looks vulnerable to getting blown away but seemingly has an excellent chance in a close game the value lies in the money line rather than the points spread. Is my thinking along the right lines or am I missing something?

Valid point, and I think someone like redarmi is far better qualified to comment on the value side of things than I am.  There's still too much gut-feel in the way I do things for my liking, so I'm no expert.

On this specific example though, even at the best price of 9/4, I'm not sure that I see Chicago coming out on the right side of things enough for me to be tempted.  Even in the close game scenario I discussed, my gut instinct is that I'd still expect Detroit to be the winner probably 70% of the time in those situations.  Combine that with the probabilities of the Detroit blowout and I'm not sure the price represents great value.

However, I'd completely disregarded the money-line when I wrote the above, so the argument itself has some merit.  I just don't think it applies particularly well to this game.

[action man]

betting unders tonight, chicago D and useless cutler divisional game

[redarmi]

I definitely prefer unders with the proviso that, as per my post yesterday, most games seem to be flying over.  Kush makes a very good point about Chicago not being anything like 30th against the pass.  The Camel pulled me up on a similar comment I made last night and it is a bit of a guess up at this point of the season as to what strengths the various teams have but this Bears team gave up more yards against the Panthers than any Bears team since 1982 so it is fair to say that isn't a strength of theres.  What isn't in doubt is that a) Detroit are a very good passing team this year b) haven't played in a nationally televised Monday night game for soemthing like seven years and will bring a massive amount of intensity tonight and c) know that the pressure is on in every game because they are in the same division as GB.  I can understand why the Lions have been backed but for the same reason that I have backed Johnson to score the first TD tonight I think that the Bears may do well defensively.  When a team has scored 8 of their 11 passing TD's through a single combination you would think that the Bears will be focussing strongly on stopping that particular play.  I think it is a no play game on spread and total to be honest which is why I have focussed on and bet slightly more esoteric markets and even then Bears under 21 bet is pretty much just a maths play more than a strong view.

[Simon Galloway]

overs...unders...overs...unders

Are people trading privately or is everyone really posting opposing picks here and then lining up to give bookies 11/10 both sides?