$4.1k and were all in

Stay alert or have you got the auto buys in already ?

Hope you got cold feet on this

nobody would sell. if anybody is interested in selling hmu

How is premium with Norwegian? Anybody tried?

I have flown with Norweigan short haul.   Similar prices to Ryanair, but felt nicer.   You get wifi and you don't have to queue for an eternity and get your bags taken from you, or check the rules every 5 mins.

But, they have money issues, so you are gambling a bit.  I have a short haul flight booked for Feb with them, so am not masively concerned, but am still gambling a bit.

Thanks for this question.

I havd just read a few reviews of the premium seats and everyone was positive.   I dare say I wouldn't do 10 hours in economy with them.  It looks a good alternative to Virgin if you haven't got enough points.   I suspect the best alternative is a cashback credit card and pay Norweigan premium, but I am a bit late for that.   

Hey thanks

I’m booking to go in couple weeks and there wasn’t many options. Let’s hope it’s ok :/

How is premium with Norwegian? Anybody tried?

Wow what a terrible decision

$4.1k and were all in

I am no expert on this. But I would have thought if you late reg you are closer to the money, less players remaining, and be less than a double up away from average chips. Stealing blinds and antes are also much more profitable. For all of these reasons the ROI would increase for any player late regging and would be higher for solid pros or short, mid stack specialist.

well it would also be higer ev for amateurs too.

what do you think an amateur loses the most money in? 200bb deep or 1bb deep?

well lets assume when they go all in vs a pro with 200bbs deep, the pro will likely have 70%+ equity.

lets assume they go all in with 1bb, even if they go all in blind they will have 35% equity vs the top 10% of all hands in poker, by the time they have 15bbs and are selective with what they go all in with, lets say they go all in with top 20% vs pros top 15% their equity is 46%

its a reason why all live tournaments should start 100bb deep, for many many years you would get the nittiest of regs getting it in with 80%+ equity vs amateurs and busting them way too quickly/easily, with the change of 100bb maximum, it at least decreases this.

ideally every tournament should be 40bb from the start to the very end, meaning there is the right amount of skill + luck and edges are capped that amateurs survive longer.

instead we get amateurs who complain that pros go all in blind vs them, again, im not sure how they are expecting to win the tournament or progress without winning chips and simply getting it all in with top 10% vs blind hand you're going to have around 75% equity which is more than almost any pro will have in almost any tournament live or online.

That’s not really how it works either. In low field tournaments your roi is similar whether to reg first hand or last hand of late reg.  if you have the same roi but miss 2-3 hours then you instantly have way higher roi and can play way more games meaning make more money.

You should be on the Brexit negotiation team with logic like that. You can’t have the same ROI at both ends of the reg period AND have an instantly higher roi by choosing to late reg. I get the bit about playing more games, but the other bit looks nonsensical,

You didn’t answer the bit about being Mr 99% of the required field by the way.

you have the same roi and thus a higher hourly late regging and higher roi on your session.

lets say there is a game every 30 minutes and you want to max 4 table

you start your session at 4pm and register 4 tables, assuming you have the same roi in all of the tournaments for argument sake then max ev would be to register every tournament at the very last second thus maxing your volume.

if you ever see a 25k online you'll see i do exactly this, i register with literally the last second of the tournament because rois are capped and thus i get best $/hour by playing it at the very last second, if there is a 2000 runner field with huge dead money early, then it is different, although still perhaps roi isn't increased enough to justify registering anything other than last second.

and yes, you're probably right, I would most likely do a better job than the current person negotiating brexit.

That’s not really how it works either. In low field tournaments your roi is similar whether to reg first hand or last hand of late reg.  if you have the same roi but miss 2-3 hours then you instantly have way higher roi and can play way more games meaning make more money.

It depends on the reg, his bankroll and his roi.

Why would that be counter intuitive. It seems very intuitive to me.

They’ve always been like this. Not only is there millions and millions given out in leaderboards, but there’s also very handsome overlays on an almost daily basis. That’s why the regs play more there now because they know he site gambles with them. On other sites the guarantees are always smashed usually around 75% more than the guarantee thus not gambling with the players at all and of course not hitting close to the potential they could do. If you are recreational player you may only play 109$ if it’s 50k+ because 30k isn’t attractive, instead the 30k hits 50k but people won’t buy into it once it’s shallow stacks.

The reason the numbers are close to the guaranteed amounts is because party are dynamic and can estimate what the field numbers look like and if they are slightly missing then regs will jump in for last minute overlay hunting. It’s very normal.

If they made it clear up front that it was £5M guaranteed but with a zero chance of an overlay then it would be fine.

What they actually do is advertise the 'incredible value' and 'huge potential overlays' all over facebook to get people in to the tournament knowing full well that there won't be one.

All they need to do is be transparent and let people know that it's a £5M guarantee but they'll be putting their own players in on some kind of split to ensure that it actually gets the runners necessary to make the guarantee.

It's all about transparency. Let people know what they're getting in to up front and nobody can ever complain. Any kind of sneakiness in there will always upset a few folk.

Of course some overlays hit mate but many, many don’t. Online on daily basis you will find 5+ tournaments with overlay, last week in Canada I think there was 1m overlay, I would say that there has probably been 100,000% more overlays in party tournaments than any other brand, it’s not really up for debate there are many tournaments in a regular basis that have big added value from overlay. 

Sorry I was mainly referring to the specific £5M guarantee tournament and also the live tournaments I regularly see promoted on facebook which are generally the DTD ones.

I wasn't really talking about online as I don't see the info for those tournaments so don't have any knowledge of what goes on. I did read the 2p2 thread though and saw the following post which really paints a bad picture all being within 2% of the exact number of runners required to hit the guarantee:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally Posted by Mystic View Post
There is definitely something odd going on with respect to field sizes.

$55 $10k - 198 runners
$109 $50k - 497 runners
$55 $25k - 494 runners
$530 $100k - 196 runners
$530 $40k - 80 runners
$109 $40k - 399 runners
$215 $100k - 494 runners

And looking at yesterday's fields it is a similar story
This is not normal at all, never used to happen. What's the deal?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This person may have been cherry picking of course but I read it as though this was the tournaments from one specific day. When I used to play on stars it was never like this, pretty much every tournament hit the guarantee but there was never a noticeable pattern of them being this close.

Anyone with a suspicious mind might well think there was a pool of players just sat there waiting with their tournament dollars to buy in at the last minute if they were needed to make up the numbers. There might even be someone instructing these players which tournaments to sign up for? The posts from ex BRS players seem to suggest that this was the case.

I'd like to take the unders on 100000% if I may please although we'll have to specify over how much time. Are we including the penny rolls and $1.10 tournaments here? I'll admit that they overlay quite frequently so would probably skew thing in your favour.

Numbers being close to guarantees are because they get pushed and pushed and pushed. The same person forgot to mention the $20k, $10k, $30knoverlays In heaps of tournaments this week. I’m sorry but it’s #fakenews

I actually am not that fussed by this and maybe I should be.

They havnt seen my hole cards or anything, they just are staked into the games and instead of a random backer getting it the company does. Ive gone deep and even won some of the non live party events and Im pretty happy that the guarentees are artifically inflated!

How can you not be concerned by effectively having a team of players all allegedly under the instruction to play as a team?

What do you mean as a team? They are playing individually right? They aren’t showing each other their cards and if they are then it doesn’t have anything about being in a stable or whatever. There has been cheats, there are cheats and there will be cheats in the future. Just because somebody is staked doesn’t mean they are cheats. When Cos and the guys were staked by Blatchly you guys didn’t think they would cheat together right? It’s the same thing here.

Of course you want be facing bad players - until you get smashed in the face by their aggregated variance. There's a post on the 2+2 thread by a guy who played a series of comps on his own dime for c.£12k that struck a chord with me. If the game is going get back to any kind of health, surely the serious recs (like that guy and me) need to be nurtured rather than enraged.

“Of course you want to play bad players, till you lose” surely you can see the illogical sense behind this? What would you rather face? Somebody playing well?

There’s so many illogical and untruthful thoughts around all these talks. Not wanting to get it in against people with bad hands being the most obvious one. You’re there to win the tournament or progress in the tournament you have to gain chips, poker is tougher every year being to gain chips, especially if you’re an amateur who is a dog in the field is tough right? If somebody is actually playing like this it will be the easiest way for anybody to gain chips and progress in the tournament.  Somebody talked about a 5000 ticket being worth 6250 well if somebody is going all in with 30% equity against you then guess what your “ticket” will be worth around 5250! There’s probably a blackjack or roulette analogy but I’m tired.

If they made it clear up front that it was £5M guaranteed but with a zero chance of an overlay then it would be fine.

What they actually do is advertise the 'incredible value' and 'huge potential overlays' all over facebook to get people in to the tournament knowing full well that there won't be one.

All they need to do is be transparent and let people know that it's a £5M guarantee but they'll be putting their own players in on some kind of split to ensure that it actually gets the runners necessary to make the guarantee.

It's all about transparency. Let people know what they're getting in to up front and nobody can ever complain. Any kind of sneakiness in there will always upset a few folk.

No offence but I would be playing for 100% of myself as would Fedor, Trickett or whoever else were not going to try and take some small freeroll deal.

If they made it clear up front that it was £5M guaranteed but with a zero chance of an overlay then it would be fine.

What they actually do is advertise the 'incredible value' and 'huge potential overlays' all over facebook to get people in to the tournament knowing full well that there won't be one.

All they need to do is be transparent and let people know that it's a £5M guarantee but they'll be putting their own players in on some kind of split to ensure that it actually gets the runners necessary to make the guarantee.

It's all about transparency. Let people know what they're getting in to up front and nobody can ever complain. Any kind of sneakiness in there will always upset a few folk.

Of course some overlays hit mate but many, many don’t. Online on daily basis you will find 5+ tournaments with overlay, last week in Canada I think there was 1m overlay, I would say that there has probably been 100,000% more overlays in party tournaments than any other brand, it’s not really up for debate there are many tournaments in a regular basis that have big added value from overlay. 

I thought she was pretty poor actually, didn’t think she was great pitching either

Have you managed to find a football team to manage yet Patrick ?

Hey, no its actually pretty tough, I'm in an area where I really don't have any contacts, links etc.

If I was in the North East it would be very easy, but here in London extremely tough. I messaged a local university (St Marys) which is 1 min from my house and asked to work voluntarily, its tough though.

Any thoughts/advice?