Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Suarez is staying at Liverpool according to the rumour mill. 1.29 was available to lay on Betfair so someone out there in the know must be really confident he's staying.

Coral haven't suspended their betting yet and still offer 1.66 if that takes anyone's fancy.

Rooney, Bale and Suarez are 4.0 with corals all to stay with their current clubs, looks like Rooney and Suarez will stay but Bale still strong in the betting to go, even so 3-1 is too big isnt't it?

What's the deal with this thread? Having a read through it looks like anyone can tip and tikay runs it, is that how it works? It is obviously very popular, I take it that it is was it says on the tin, Tips for Tikay?

Good morning, & welcome to Fred.

I agree, 3/1 does look big.

If this were your money, how strongly would you fancy this bet? I'm not awfully comfy with these Transfer Markets, but in line with Fred tradition, we'll make an investment on this one if you'd like us to, as it would be your first suggestion here. We try to gain more regulars & followers by giving them a "free" first bet, as we are always looking for people who can grasp the "value" concept.

Would £25 sound about right?

See also next Post, as to your other questions.

Not sure if I have guessed your identity correctly, but do you hail from Torquay by any chance?..... 

[Tal]

Welcome to Fred, Omm.

Having spent too much of my life this summer reading anything printed, debated and drunkenly mumbled on these three fellows, I've come to the conclusion that the bookies will pretty much always be one step ahead. I mean that in the sense that we can't "know" more than they very often; we can only infer or hope our analysis is better than theirs. This doesn't mean we can't bet for value, but it is a lot tougher.

Rooney is looking to move, has clearly fallen out with someone but united don't have to sell to a rival. If Bayern came in tomorrow, he'd be on a plane. They won't but there's a sense United would sell if the deal were right.

My gut says Suarez will go to Real Madrid. It also says Liverpool want that to happen and Perez's head might be turning in that direction. Again, the club can't really afford to sell its only huge asset to a rival, but if that barrier is removed, there's no reason the deal can't happen before the end of the month.

This brings me on to Mr Bale.

Spurs have spent £50m and reports suggest a deal is close for Hailovic in the region of £12m (Levy was reportedly in Croatia last week). If they aren't spending the Bale money, Joe Lewis is trying to buy the title. There's a fair chance Bale will stay, and that will be if and because Real can't stump up the cash. I think this week is critical, because if Real think the deal won't happen, Perez has to bring in a name and Suarez will be second on the list.

In short, I'm not convinced any will stay and 4.0 isn't a serious error on the bookies' part, such that we can pounce and make a Sklansky dollar or two.

We are betting on a treble where the bookies have an information edge on each. That's hard work in my eyes.

[tikay]

Suarez is staying at Liverpool according to the rumour mill. 1.29 was available to lay on Betfair so someone out there in the know must be really confident he's staying.

Coral haven't suspended their betting yet and still offer 1.66 if that takes anyone's fancy.

Rooney, Bale and Suarez are 4.0 with corals all to stay with their current clubs, looks like Rooney and Suarez will stay but Bale still strong in the betting to go, even so 3-1 is too big isnt't it?

What's the deal with this thread? Having a read through it looks like anyone can tip and tikay runs it, is that how it works? It is obviously very popular, I take it that it is was it says on the tin, Tips for Tikay?

That's a bit complicated, but rgghhjeddfhjjtggg partly answered it.

1) See the opening Post, in January 2012, by Camel (Keith Hawkins) who started all this nonsense. He & I go back a goodly while, & he knew I had given up punting around 12 years ago, & never had a bet since, so he thought he'd get me off the wagon. Since then I have placed 2,021 Fred bets for a total spend of over £66,000, with a positive ROI just shy of 4%, so I guess we have to say he succeeded.....  

2) It is essentially a thread where we learn from seasoned "pro" punters the rights & wrongs of how to beat the bookies, make a little money, & have fun.

3) In theory, ANYONE can suggest a bet, we then chew it over between us, & if we agree the bet is good, we get on. The so-called "Elders" give us a steer as & when needed, & also give us  some nice suggested bets from time to time.

4) Elders, & those with a winning record & grasp of "value", or get their bets auto-placed.

5) We have built a collective of specialists in almost every sport, & the inevitable "Novelty" stuff such as Big Brother, the latter being something I wholly disapprove of.

6) Yes, it is very popular - it is far & away the busiest thread on blonde.

Seriously, we have some VERY good experts here, & the thrust of the thread is fun, & education.

ALL bets are proofed, & painstakingly recorded on this spreadsheet, which has sections for each month, each sport, etc, as well as our totals in everything.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=4

So, I've answered your questions I hope. Now, you gonna teach me to play poker?

[Omm]

Suarez is staying at Liverpool according to the rumour mill. 1.29 was available to lay on Betfair so someone out there in the know must be really confident he's staying.

Coral haven't suspended their betting yet and still offer 1.66 if that takes anyone's fancy.

Rooney, Bale and Suarez are 4.0 with corals all to stay with their current clubs, looks like Rooney and Suarez will stay but Bale still strong in the betting to go, even so 3-1 is too big isnt't it?

What's the deal with this thread? Having a read through it looks like anyone can tip and tikay runs it, is that how it works? It is obviously very popular, I take it that it is was it says on the tin, Tips for Tikay?

Good morning, & welcome to Fred.

I agree, 3/1 does look big.

If this were your money, how strongly would you fancy this bet? I'm not awfully comfy with these Transfer Markets, but in line with Fred tradition, we'll make an investment on this one if you'd like us to, as it would be your first suggestion here. We try to gain more regulars & followers by giving them a "free" first bet, as we are always looking for people who can grasp the "value" concept.

Would £25 sound about right?

See also next Post, as to your other questions.

Not sure if I have guessed your identity correctly, but do you hail from Torquay by any chance?..... 

Hi Tikay,

No not from Torquay, from London but now reside in St Evenage, locals know it as Stevenage. Although i presume you have seen my name and have mistaken my for the infamous mongy? would i be right?

You don't know me, obviously I am aware of you from Sky poker, I've seen you a couple of times bossing the dealers choice in Luton, I've also won an Spt side event at Luton which I entered without realising what it was, thought it was the normal Sunday comp ( which is how I come to play on sky now).

Although the 3's looks tasty there are probably too many variables, for a start its a treble and the market can be quite tricky, I would prefer to wait for a better opportunity to give the Fred a better value bet if you don't mind.

I'm on page 15 of the thread so far, fascinating read, might go all the way through.

Regards

Scott

[tikay]

Suarez is staying at Liverpool according to the rumour mill. 1.29 was available to lay on Betfair so someone out there in the know must be really confident he's staying.

Coral haven't suspended their betting yet and still offer 1.66 if that takes anyone's fancy.

Rooney, Bale and Suarez are 4.0 with corals all to stay with their current clubs, looks like Rooney and Suarez will stay but Bale still strong in the betting to go, even so 3-1 is too big isnt't it?

What's the deal with this thread? Having a read through it looks like anyone can tip and tikay runs it, is that how it works? It is obviously very popular, I take it that it is was it says on the tin, Tips for Tikay?

Good morning, & welcome to Fred.

I agree, 3/1 does look big.

If this were your money, how strongly would you fancy this bet? I'm not awfully comfy with these Transfer Markets, but in line with Fred tradition, we'll make an investment on this one if you'd like us to, as it would be your first suggestion here. We try to gain more regulars & followers by giving them a "free" first bet, as we are always looking for people who can grasp the "value" concept.

Would £25 sound about right?

See also next Post, as to your other questions.

Not sure if I have guessed your identity correctly, but do you hail from Torquay by any chance?..... 

Hi Tikay,

No not from Torquay, from London but now reside in St Evenage, locals know it as Stevenage. Although i presume you have seen my name and have mistaken my for the infamous mongy? would i be right?

You don't know me, obviously I am aware of you from Sky poker, I've seen you a couple of times bossing the dealers choice in Luton, I've also won an Spt side event at Luton which I entered without realising what it was, thought it was the normal Sunday comp ( which is how I come to play on sky now).

Although the 3's looks tasty there are probably too many variables, for a start its a treble and the market can be quite tricky, I would prefer to wait for a better opportunity to give the Fred a better value bet if you don't mind.

I'm on page 15 of the thread so far, fascinating read, might go all the way through.

Regards

Scott

Ha! You sussed it, I got the wrong "Scott". Anyway, you are very welcome indeed, & I'm sure Chompy, a regular here & at Luton, will readily confirm that I boss the DC @ Luton. Sometimes.....

We will swerve that bet then, & to be honest, I'm glad, as I don't much like that type of wager.

Carry on reading the thread if time permits, & if you have any questions, fire away. It is just a friendly punting collective really, but it has succeeded, remarkably, in turning a lot of mug punters, myself included, into winning punters, thanks to the Elders.

When you find a bet you fancy, stick it up, & we'll get the ball rolling.

Well done on winning that SPT Sidey, we'll be back at Luton again soon, hope to see you there. 

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £725.58

Outstanding Bets £2948.06

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=28

A quiet day for activity yesterday with one bet, Elusivity failing at Nottingham costing £11.84

A busy day for discussion, with Premier League Handicaps, Romford Dogs and Transfer markets all gaining attention

In baseball, the Red Sox extended their lead at the top of the AL East to 4 games, winning again whilst the slumping Rays lost to the Mariners

In the Central the Tigers lost, but the Royals could not take advantage as they lost to the lowly Marlins

The current AL Wildcard standings show what a sweat we have with a quarter of the regular season left

The division champions would be the Red Sox, Tigers and Rangers

The two best other teams would make the play offs

currently

Oakland A's 67-41
Rays 66-51
Orioles 65- 54
Indians 64-56
Royals  62-55

So we can,on a daily basis, funk for the Red Sox, Rays and Royals and anti-funk the Tigers, indians, Orioles and Athletics

Clear? Good.

Latest news this morning is that Suarez has said he is staying at Liverpool. Which presumably takes Arsenal onto Plan B,C,D,E,F or G

England play Scotland tonight, no doubt led by Wayne Rooney. Rickie Lambert to play would be nice. To score first would be nicer for thread debutant Mark Porter

[TightEnd]

Good luck to Mr Lambert

Click to see full-size image.

Super Savers win again in Boston

Click to see full-size image.

Airport Captain scoots home at Romford. Note the Pigeon Loft press box in the main stand



"I am staying"



"I am playing"

Click to see full-size image.

"I am saying nothing"

Click to see full-size image.

[horseplayer]

BET DISCUSSION

CRYSTAL PALACE to finish bottom at 13/5 Coral

Biggest price by a fair way in the market.

Squad basically struggled towards end of last season.

Could easily argue it is a bit weaker if anything than last season.

Cardiff and to a lesser extent Hull seem more likely to spend than Palace do.


I very rarely bet in the premiership but this stood out a bit to me?

[Chompy]

Yikes! Imagine how long it would take to read every page of this thread. Some good stuff on here but that's a job and a half.

It's stdd practise for any TfT newcomer to list their favourite five tipsters omm, with a line on each.

Suggest anyone with a financial interest on BB watches tonight's show. There's a twist coming. BB twists don't normally change a lot but this is an unusually bunch and things could switch. Gina remains a crazy-big price, though, and there could be a top-up coming.

[Mark_Porter]

Indications are that Lambert will probably not start tonight. Rooney is injury free and looks like he will be in from the start with either Defoe or Welbeck relegating Lambert to an off the bench role.

If Lambert doesn't start and someone else scores, is the First Goalscorer bet void? If he comes off the bench, is the EW part still live?

[tikay]

BET DISCUSSION

CRYSTAL PALACE to finish bottom at 13/5 Coral

Biggest price by a fair way in the market.

Squad basically struggled towards end of last season.

Could easily argue it is a bit weaker if anything than last season.

Cardiff and to a lesser extent Hull seem more likely to spend than Palace do.


I very rarely bet in the premiership but this stood out a bit to me?

Thanks horsey.

I can't imagine Palace finishing anywhere other than bottom, but I have no idea what the perceived value is @ 13/5.

Happy to get on though, if we agree the price is wrong.

In brief, I THINK it will happen, but I have no ides what the price should be.

[tikay]

Indications are that Lambert will probably not start tonight. Rooney is injury free and looks like he will be in from the start with either Defoe or Welbeck relegating Lambert to an off the bench role.

If Lambert doesn't start and someone else scores, is the First Goalscorer bet void? If he comes off the bench, is the EW part still live?

As far as I am aware, he has to start the match for the bet to be a goer. Failing that, he is a non-runner, & the bet is off. I hope.....

[Marky147]

Indications are that Lambert will probably not start tonight. Rooney is injury free and looks like he will be in from the start with either Defoe or Welbeck relegating Lambert to an off the bench role.

If Lambert doesn't start and someone else scores, is the First Goalscorer bet void? If he comes off the bench, is the EW part still live?

As far as I am aware, he has to start the match for the bet to be a goer. Failing that, he is a non-runner, & the bet is off. I hope.....

Think he has to be on the pitch when the first goal is scored for the bet to be in play.

[Marky147]

BET DISCUSSION

CRYSTAL PALACE to finish bottom at 13/5 Coral

Biggest price by a fair way in the market.

Squad basically struggled towards end of last season.

Could easily argue it is a bit weaker if anything than last season.

Cardiff and to a lesser extent Hull seem more likely to spend than Palace do.


I very rarely bet in the premiership but this stood out a bit to me?

Thanks horsey.

I can't imagine Palace finishing anywhere other than bottom, but I have no idea what the perceived value is @ 13/5.

Happy to get on though, if we agree the price is wrong.

In brief, I THINK it will happen, but I have no ides what the price should be.

Paging Ant

[Tal]

Indications are that Lambert will probably not start tonight. Rooney is injury free and looks like he will be in from the start with either Defoe or Welbeck relegating Lambert to an off the bench role.

If Lambert doesn't start and someone else scores, is the First Goalscorer bet void? If he comes off the bench, is the EW part still live?

He has to be on - or have been on - the field of play when a goal is scored for you to lose your bet.

You have to be able to win in order to be able to lose, if that makes sense.