Fold Equity question

[Benny Brox]

Yo, not posted for a while cos I've been travelling. In Vegas at the mo' playing a mix of cash & tourney. Anyways...

Palms Casino - $1/$3 - 10 handed - been at table about 45 minutes, played quite tight but raised last 3 out of last 5 pots but also had to lay down aces in the previous hand. Usually though table seems pretty loose and weak, any raise is getting called by rubbish like K10o.

UTG+2 (not played many hands, so can presume tight player?) raises to $10

I'm sitting in CO with - I flat call. BB also calls.

Flop -  - $31 in pot

BB bets out $30, UTG+2 min-raises to $60. Both have me covered. I have $157 left. If I push, which is reasonable as I have 12 clean outs twice (4 Jacks, 8 for flush), do you think I also have fold equity here based on what I have left or do I need more info on how my opponents play first?

[doubleup]

Not much, either first better pushes or raiser calls (tho he might not like it).

[TheChipPrince]

Lets assume the BB folds if you push (which you should, quickly, as Flushy would say ''insta snap-jam'')..   UTG+2 only has to call $97 to win $375, so no, you dont have any fold equity, well, unless he is totally bluffing with no pair no draw...

[Moskvich]

Lets assume the BB folds if you push (which you should, quickly, as Flushy would say ''insta snap-jam'')..   UTG+2 only has to call $97 to win $375, so no, you dont have any fold equity, well, unless he is totally bluffing with no pair no draw...

If the BB folds to a push and UTG+2 calls, why would you want to push here, given that all your outs are to the nuts? Surely you're better off flat-calling and hoping to get this all in 3 ways, even if that means putting the rest in on a missed turn.

[kinboshi]

Lets assume the BB folds if you push (which you should, quickly, as Flushy would say ''insta snap-jam'')..   UTG+2 only has to call $97 to win $375, so no, you dont have any fold equity, well, unless he is totally bluffing with no pair no draw...

If the BB folds to a push and UTG+2 calls, why would you want to push here, given that all your outs are to the nuts? Surely you're better off flat-calling and hoping to get this all in 3 ways, even if that means putting the rest in on a missed turn.

Especially if he's drawing to a smaller flush.

[Longy]

You don't have much but there is always some, cos people do daft things and your shove will look super strong.

With 12 clean outs we are anywhere between 35-45% to win this hand given we may find ourselves up against a set. With whats already in the pot and possibly a dead 30 or even better bb comes along for the ride, this is quite a trivial shove imo.

[Horneris]

I duno, id shove and pray to the lord that they call.

[ChipRich]

I duno, id shove and pray to the lord that they call.

haha, but yeh fistpump it in.

[gatso]

I duno, id shove and pray to the lord that they call.

haha, but yeh fistpump it in.

ya. I don't want FE, I want money

[Moskvich]

Lets assume the BB folds if you push (which you should, quickly, as Flushy would say ''insta snap-jam'')..   UTG+2 only has to call $97 to win $375, so no, you dont have any fold equity, well, unless he is totally bluffing with no pair no draw...

If the BB folds to a push and UTG+2 calls, why would you want to push here, given that all your outs are to the nuts? Surely you're better off flat-calling and hoping to get this all in 3 ways, even if that means putting the rest in on a missed turn.

Especially if he's drawing to a smaller flush.

Lol exactly. Now never mention that again.   

[Benny Brox]

Cheers for that.

I did shove though thinking I'd be against the BBs KQ or JQ. I put the min-raiser (and original raiser pre-flop) on AK or possibly a set of 10s or Jacks cos he hasn't played many hands. Anyways, BB humps and haws and then reluctantly folds. UTG+2 calls almost immediately once he finds out it's $97 more.

We don't turn our hands over until the turn and river come out -  - So I say "Your Ace-King wins mate" and then he tables  - I then said "Nice hand you played that well to him, you really caught me out there" cos I reloaded but actually I thought "You're a f**** muppet".

Anybody call here with 2nd pair rubbish kicker in this spot even though it's only $97 more? I would have mucked it against a player who hasn't been out of line..

[AlexMartin]

Lets assume the BB folds if you push (which you should, quickly, as Flushy would say ''insta snap-jam'')..   UTG+2 only has to call $97 to win $375, so no, you dont have any fold equity, well, unless he is totally bluffing with no pair no draw...

If the BB folds to a push and UTG+2 calls, why would you want to push here, given that all your outs are to the nuts? Surely you're better off flat-calling and hoping to get this all in 3 ways, even if that means putting the rest in on a missed turn.

 



just obv dont forget to get it in on turn, regardless of card.

[M3boy]

I duno, id shove and pray to the lord that they call.

haha, but yeh fistpump it in.

ya. I don't want FE, I want money

I agree, im not looking for fold equity here either, I want all the money in 3 way

[Sunday8pm]

Prob best to flat the $60 raise then, as you might be inducing the original bettor to shove, thus creating better pot odds for yourself.

[Longy]

Prob best to flat the $60 raise then, as you might be inducing the original bettor to shove, thus creating better pot odds for yourself.

Problem comes if bb flats or folds, which is a lot more likely.

If we blank the turn we lose a lot of equity and may be a nasty spot if the board pairs. Also if we hit we might totally lose our customer as the 9 diamonds are deffo scare cards, making the pot alot smaller.