Rate my triple barrel daily $162 on stars

[muckthenuts]

Early in the daily $162, half the table is limping liberally. Villain has done a lot so far and i've assumed by this point he's bad.

Our equity should be really decent til the river but the run out definitely isn't great. Any thoughts on my betsizing and checking turn/giving up the river?

Poker Stars $150+$12 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 9 players -
[url=http://www.deucescracked.com/?referrer=converter_dc]DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP1: t5370       179 BBs
MP2: t2876       95.87 BBs
CO: t3049       101.63 BBs
BTN: t6910       230.33 BBs
SB: t2760       92 BBs
Hero (BB): t3220       107.33 BBs
UTG: t3345       111.50 BBs
UTG+1: t3235       107.83 BBs
UTG+2: t2940       98 BBs

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BB with
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t30, UTG+2 calls t30, MP1 calls t30, 2 folds, BTN calls t30, 1 fold, Hero raises to t222, UTG+1 calls t192, UTG+2 calls t192, 2 folds

Flop: (t741) : (3 players)
Hero bets t479, UTG+1 calls t479, UTG+2 folds

Turn: (t1699) (2 players)
Hero bets t777, UTG+1 calls t777

River: (t3253) (2 players)
Hero bets t1742 all in, UTG+1 folds

[chatban]

Well played. I like the sizing. If anything maybe slightly smaller on turn just to make the river shove that much harder to call from villain.

[outragous76]

Villain makes this look better than it is im afriad - he should never be folding with such a small bet to pot ratio

[cambridgealex]

Agree, I'd defo give up this.

[skolsuper]

Wait wat? this is fine

[cambridgealex]

half the table is limping liberally. Villain has done a lot so far and i've assumed by this point he's bad.

given this why would we assume he's going to find a fold when the FD bricks? he's getting 3:1 on a call and will just "put you on AK" and call (most of the time )

[skolsuper]

half the table is limping liberally. Villain has done a lot so far and i've assumed by this point he's bad.

given this why would we assume he's going to find a fold when the FD bricks? he's getting 3:1 on a call and will just "put you on AK" and call (most of the time )

Pretty sure this works way more than the required ~35% of the time imo

[SuuPRlim]

yh you're getting a great price to bluff and you rep a pretty perfect value range.

[doubleup]

yh you're getting a great price to bluff and you rep a pretty perfect value range.

How often do you think it is actually a bluff?  What rivers would you not bluff?

[SuuPRlim]

yh you're getting a great price to bluff and you rep a pretty perfect value range.

How often do you think it is actually a bluff?  What rivers would you not bluff?

I think for sure it's a bluff >1/3 of the time, at this stage of the tourney there is almost zero air in our 3bet range pre-flop and he's gonna have to expect us to give up barreling our non premium spade spade combo's a really high % of the time, so by the time we get to the river we're pretty value heavy imo.

As for which river's not to bluff i'm not so sure after a pairing turn card. I actually think an ACE would be a bad river to bluff, as the Xspade is a decent chunk of his value range and we cut our value range to AA/AK when we bluff that card

[cambridgealex]

yh you're getting a great price to bluff and you rep a pretty perfect value range.

How often do you think it is actually a bluff?  What rivers would you not bluff?

I think for sure it's a bluff >1/3 of the time, at this stage of the tourney there is almost zero air in our 3bet range pre-flop and he's gonna have to expect us to give up barreling our non premium spade spade combo's a really high % of the time, so by the time we get to the river we're pretty value heavy imo.

As for which river's not to bluff i'm not so sure after a pairing turn card. I actually think an ACE would be a bad river to bluff, as the Xspade is a decent chunk of his value range and we cut our value range to AA/AK when we bluff that card

So why does he expect us to give up our ss combos? The guy is described as bad, he's limping in etc. If I flush draw bricks and the board runs out like this, everyone I know of that description will just put you on the draw that missed and call.

Really think this is a bad bluff.

[outragous76]

yh you're getting a great price to bluff and you rep a pretty perfect value range.

How often do you think it is actually a bluff?  What rivers would you not bluff?

I think for sure it's a bluff >1/3 of the time, at this stage of the tourney there is almost zero air in our 3bet range pre-flop and he's gonna have to expect us to give up barreling our non premium spade spade combo's a really high % of the time, so by the time we get to the river we're pretty value heavy imo.

As for which river's not to bluff i'm not so sure after a pairing turn card. I actually think an ACE would be a bad river to bluff, as the Xspade is a decent chunk of his value range and we cut our value range to AA/AK when we bluff that card

So why does he expect us to give up our ss combos? The guy is described as bad, he's limping in etc. If I flush draw bricks and the board runs out like this, everyone I know of that description will just put you on the draw that missed and call.

Really think this is a bad bluff.

Agree with Alex.

[rfgqqabc]

Thoughts on check/shoving turn? Not sure i like the 3 barrels, the board doesn't change too much and obvious draws miss. He has probably got this far this 1 pair, why do you expect him to fold now? Also, great price to bluff= great price to bluff catch

[Pugwashed]

Agree with Alex.

+1

Board runs out pretty bad for you to barrel, I probably give up on the turn, hope it checks through and bink river. Fish don't don't fold pairs enough in these spots imo.

Also, how has this gotten to a stage where I'm more of a nit than you?

[SuuPRlim]

yh you're getting a great price to bluff and you rep a pretty perfect value range.

How often do you think it is actually a bluff?  What rivers would you not bluff?

I think for sure it's a bluff >1/3 of the time, at this stage of the tourney there is almost zero air in our 3bet range pre-flop and he's gonna have to expect us to give up barreling our non premium spade spade combo's a really high % of the time, so by the time we get to the river we're pretty value heavy imo.

As for which river's not to bluff i'm not so sure after a pairing turn card. I actually think an ACE would be a bad river to bluff, as the Xspade is a decent chunk of his value range and we cut our value range to AA/AK when we bluff that card

So why does he expect us to give up our ss combos? The guy is described as bad, he's limping in etc. If I flush draw bricks and the board runs out like this, everyone I know of that description will just put you on the draw that missed and call.

Really think this is a bad bluff.

He doesn't he defo expects us to barrel off our spade spade combos but pretty much all our spade/spades are premium (AK/AQ) and he'd have to expect us to quit barreling out non spade spade no pair hands on the turn a decent % which takes a LOT of the air out of our range. Maybe this guy has no concept of this, but from a theory point of view....

Our range is significantly stronger than his and we're getting 3-1 to bluff with a hand that has minimal chance at showdown. It's a very tough spot for (even bad players) when you put people in spots where they have to bluff catch. Pretty happy it's the nut line tbh (although not 3betting pf also a strong option)

It's high variance but once we've bet the turn I think a river jam is pretty mandatory