Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

If anyone wants to get on a bet at Evens when it should be short price odds-on?

Here's one for you

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british-politics/south-shields-by-election-e216944105-m228702791

UKIP in the upcoming South Shields By-election..to finish second


See very little chance, in this all time safe Labour constituency, that the 20% who voted Tory last time don't move big time to the UKIP

that 20% was 7,886 votes in 2010 and just over 5,000 votes in 2005 and 2001 in what is a very small constiuency

UKIP have never fielded a candidate in this constituency

UKIP can poll 4-5k votes from LD and Cons in the by-election. Yes, I am pretty sure they can

Money tied up til 2nd May.

 

that's a pretty snap lay tbh. Labour will win by absolute chunks, no doubt about that, then Tory will still finish second.

You fancy laying it?  I will have an even £200 if you do.

[DungBeetle]

Yeah I think it's a good bet at evens.  The tory voters know that Labour win 100% here so might as well send a message to Cameron.

[redarmi]

The only question mark I would have is if it was scheduled for May 2nd as UKIP will be a bit stretched with local elections then but so will the Tories

[Doobs]

If anyone wants to get on a bet at Evens when it should be short price odds-on?

Here's one for you

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british-politics/south-shields-by-election-e216944105-m228702791

UKIP in the upcoming South Shields By-election..to finish second


See very little chance, in this all time safe Labour constituency, that the 20% who voted Tory last time don't move big time to the UKIP

that 20% was 7,886 votes in 2010 and just over 5,000 votes in 2005 and 2001 in what is a very small constiuency

UKIP have never fielded a candidate in this constituency

UKIP can poll 4-5k votes from LD and Cons in the by-election. Yes, I am pretty sure they can

Money tied up til 2nd May.

 

that's a pretty snap lay tbh. Labour will win by absolute chunks, no doubt about that, then Tory will still finish second.

Not sure there is much reasoning here Mulhuzz.  Labour winning by absolute chunks doesn't really affect the bet.

Given it was tipped at evens and it is now 8/11 means, it can't have been a bad bet.  

Despite this I don't really like the bet.  People tend to protest against the party in power, which is weird given the circumstances here, but we'll just assume the voting public aren't very good at allocating blame.  Labour is gaining in popularity, so those that were protesting against them at the last election, by voting Lib Dem or Conservative, will just switch back.  Those amongst the Lib Dems now protesting against their party doing the right thing can just vote Labour here.  In addition, moving from voting Lib Dem to UKIP is a much bigger step than moving to voting for the other party on the left.  

For this bet to finish 2nd we probably need half the Conservatives to desert and switch to UKIP?   In Eastleigh the Conservative share went from 39 to 25, which feels like it could be close enough.   But if backing odds on, I'd want to see a bigger collapse, particularly given the poor Conservative campaign.

But more important than this is that in Eastleigh, we could back UKIP at 12/1 or so, here they are at 8/11.  It feels like we are just reacting to the events there, rather than weighing up the value.  It feels a bit like UKIP are in form; they should be favourites; bet.  

As I said at the top, evens can't have been that bad a bet, but I'd be leaning to the Conservatives now.  Just hope they choose their candidate wisely this time, and we don't see them parachute in some disastrous toff from the home counties.
  

[Doobs]

Replying to myself really.  I didn't realise the BNP got 6.5% here at the last election.  I guess if that bunch of turds can get 6.5%, then with the polished version of their message that UKIP provides, then you could easily see 15% +.  Hence, it could be a lot closer than I was thinking. 

I have backed the Conservatives at 13/8 with Paddy Power.  Feels a bit meh now.  Good luck all.

[david3103]

Replying to myself really.  I didn't realise the BNP got 6.5% here at the last election.  I guess if that bunch of turds can get 6.5%, then with the polished version of their message that UKIP provides, then you could easily see 15% +.  Hence, it could be a lot closer than I was thinking. 

I have backed the Conservatives at 13/8 with Paddy Power.  Feels a bit meh now.  Good luck all.

Backed them to come second?

[Doobs]

Replying to myself really.  I didn't realise the BNP got 6.5% here at the last election.  I guess if that bunch of turds can get 6.5%, then with the polished version of their message that UKIP provides, then you could easily see 15% +.  Hence, it could be a lot closer than I was thinking. 

I have backed the Conservatives at 13/8 with Paddy Power.  Feels a bit meh now.  Good luck all.

Backed them to come second?

Was without Labour, so I get first too

[Doobs]

Thinking out loud.

Does anybody know if the BNP are standing this time?  I assume they will, and that some of the potential UKIP vote will be split if they do? 

Maybe my bet is good after all.

[DungBeetle]

"then with the polished version of their message that UKIP provides"

Not sure I agree with this considering BNP have mostly left wing policies, whereas UKIP are right wing.  Obviously I agree both are anti immigration and UKIP could pick up the knuckledragger racist vote, but that doesn't mean that they have the same ideology.

[kinboshi]

"then with the polished version of their message that UKIP provides"

Not sure I agree with this considering BNP have mostly left wing policies, whereas UKIP are right wing.  Obviously I agree both are anti immigration and UKIP could pick up the knuckledragger racist vote, but that doesn't mean that they have the same ideology.

The far-right party, the BNP, have mostly left-wing policies?

[77dave]

any opinions on Sunderland to be relegated? they are currently 5/2 to go down with bet365.

they just announced that Fletcher and Cattermole are out for the rest of the season.

they are 4 points above Wigan having played a game more, im just not sure how many points they will pick up the rest of the season with a tough run in.


Sunderland v
Man Utd
Sun 7th Apr 2013
Chelsea v
Sunderland
Sun 14th Apr 2013
Newcastle v
Sunderland
Sat 20th Apr 2013
Sunderland v
Everton
Mon 29th Apr 2013
A Villa v
Sunderland
Sat 4th May 2013
Sunderland v
Stoke City
Sun 12th May 2013
Sunderland v
Southampton
Sun 19th May 2013
Tottenham v
Sunderland
All Fixtures

[redarmi]

"then with the polished version of their message that UKIP provides"

Not sure I agree with this considering BNP have mostly left wing policies, whereas UKIP are right wing.  Obviously I agree both are anti immigration and UKIP could pick up the knuckledragger racist vote, but that doesn't mean that they have the same ideology.

On the basis that I thought Dung might have been wrong I just looked up UKIP's immigration policy.  How wrong I was.  Farage has done an incredible job of making a party with such a right wing agenda seem respectable.

[BigAdz]

"then with the polished version of their message that UKIP provides"

Not sure I agree with this considering BNP have mostly left wing policies, whereas UKIP are right wing.  Obviously I agree both are anti immigration and UKIP could pick up the knuckledragger racist vote, but that doesn't mean that they have the same ideology.

On the basis that I thought Dung might have been wrong I just looked up UKIP's immigration policy.  How wrong I was.  Farage has done an incredible job of making a party with such a right wing agenda seem respectable.

Farage was speaker at a St Georges do I was at last year. Superb, and speaks mucho sense if we are ever to turn the ship round in so many ways in this country.

[AlunB]

"then with the polished version of their message that UKIP provides"

Not sure I agree with this considering BNP have mostly left wing policies, whereas UKIP are right wing.  Obviously I agree both are anti immigration and UKIP could pick up the knuckledragger racist vote, but that doesn't mean that they have the same ideology.

On the basis that I thought Dung might have been wrong I just looked up UKIP's immigration policy.  How wrong I was.  Farage has done an incredible job of making a party with such a right wing agenda seem respectable.

Farage was speaker at a St Georges do I was at last year. Superb, and speaks mucho sense if we are ever to turn the ship round in so many ways in this country.

Godwin's law anyone?

[AlunB]

"then with the polished version of their message that UKIP provides"

Not sure I agree with this considering BNP have mostly left wing policies, whereas UKIP are right wing.  Obviously I agree both are anti immigration and UKIP could pick up the knuckledragger racist vote, but that doesn't mean that they have the same ideology.

The far-right party, the BNP, have mostly left-wing policies?

Yes. They are socially right-wing and fiscally left-wing AFAIK. Nationalisation of industry etc.