blonde poker forum

Firstly appreciate im "new" here but have been lurking for a long time

After spending the last few days reading some cracking threads (eso krals life story was/is superb)

This wont be anywere as good as that but i hope to show a profit over the next few months


Today a couple of moderate cards at southwell and wolverhampton, a lot of people hate the low grade stuff but for me its were most of my betting comes. I enjoy watching the group races and cheltenham but the markets are rarely very wrong at that level.

The 1.45 at southwell is a class 6 race for slow animals with inexperienced jockeys on board, a race most would ignore.

Approaching a race like this i am looking for something new in a horses profile. One of the most important is a trainer change and we have one here in APACHE WARRIOR, goes from george moore to david o meara. Now moore isnt the worst trainer but has had plenty of horses leave him that have improved and o meara is pretty much the master of inheriting others horses in his short training career.

The horse itself showed great promise first time out back in aug 2010 and in 2 further starts that year, last seasons form figure look horrid but having rewatched these races last night the horse was slowly away in all 3 races and never put into the races at any stage. Never run at southwell but breeding suggests will handle the surface. Im sure this horse has some latent ability certainly to run a good race of a mark of 52 here, the jockey is one of the more experienced in the race and 13-2 (there is 15-2 but sportingbet are a joke firm) is a more than fair price.

For the simplicity of this thread i will stake between 1 and 5pts per selection. This is a 2pt win.

Bet 1 Apache Warrior 1.35 southwell 13-2 totesport BOG 2pt win

GLGL with this and thx for enjoying the diary!!

gl

I never bet in amateur riders races (after a couple of shockers) so I'll have to pass.

On, got 8-1

Lumped my maximum allowed bet on with sky @ 8/1. £12.50.

good luck mate

Im a mug. On £15ew @ 7/1 gl us

Bit of a plunge on the Apache, it's in to 9/2

fyp

Like the idea, Its something I play close attention to when making selections.

Good luck with this.  

I missed the race, I haven't had a bet yet I woke up this morning with such a blistering migraine I couldn't even look at the screen.  I hope I haven't missed out on much.

35 lengths behind?  ::)

all wolverhampton and lingfield are used for is trainers and owners to land coups with quirky backward horses, big greyhounds i like to call them

Yer i agree just has bent as the little chappies. You've forgot Kempton and Southwell.

firstly we beat the price yesterday but the horse ran a shocker no excuses i am in this for the long game one losing bet wont upset or dishearten me

anyway three small plays today at kempton

in these low grade sprints at kempton one of the biggest factors is having a low draw, to win from the outisde draw the horse has to either get a very easy lead or be progressive.

2.20 Kempton Bobbyow 1pt win 9-2 stan james BOG has shown much more last twice for new trainer since being gelded, the last run at lingfield was good form in the context of this race 3rd run back from a long lay off and has one of the plum low draws, trainer is hardly flying but has had a few run well at big odds in the last week (mr willis for one)

5.30 Kempton Shrejawy 1pt win 10-1 ladbrokes consistent horse and importantly for a low grade animal has a good strike rate (for this grade) hasnt had a good draw for a long time and is slightly overpriced this morning

6.00 Kempton Macks Sister 1pt win 7-1 stan jame BOG travelled up very well in last two starts indicating still in good fettle has the plum draw and should go close today in a decent race for the grade.

gd lk all and back tommorow

running total -2pts

Sherjawy has seen some market support today and from an early 14/1 its now priced at 7/1.  Personally, this was one of the first early morning movers  that I had ruled out.

Rightcar, Bellinsky, Even Bolder and Whipphound all came out as better prospects for me. Also following your logic of needing that low draw I'd be looking more closely at Dickie Le Davoir if he can come out on terms and make advantage of that draw.

which one of you put the winner down ;)

I never had a bet in the race but had 2nd and 3rd.  Would never have had that winner in a month of sundays.

Just variance atm i got a feeling tomorrows selections will nail one

no denying a disappointing start but never mind fancy a few tommorow firstly a look back at todays runners

first one ran on well from a poor position however i hadnt accounted for barney having a few quid on the easy winner. sherjawy wasnt good enough and macks sister met trouble at the crucial stage either through a poor ride or not being quick enough.....

my main fancy is at meydan but no prices for that yet so will update in the morning sometime, however i fancy three in a small way at wolverhampton which i will post now.

2.25 wolverhampton when a large percentage of the market is taken up by a horse that doesnt win races (beneath) i have to look for a bet, KIRSTYS LAD 1PT WIN 16-1 BOG loves this place and the last run isnt as bad as it looks (got hampered 3 out then hit rails) no superstar but should be race fit now after a long lay off 16-1 is fair value


3.00 LUCKY DAN 1ptwin 15-2 BOG is an admirable veteran who has been shaping like a return to 7 would suit recently, finally gets a drop into much easier grade has a good draw and should be a little to classy for these at 17-2


4.05 FASTNET STORM 1PT WIN 8-1 BOG this horse just over a year ago one a super hot race here and i have been following it ever since it left tom tate (a big plus usually) hasnt fired for the excellent ted barron yet but the stable are back in form and importantly should get an easier time on the lead tommorow in what is still a decent event 8-1 just big enough to get involved.

MEYDAN TO FOLLOW


running total -5pts

MEYDAN 3.45

bit of a flyer this but al raihie has improved much worse horses than NOOR ZABEEL 1pt win 33-1 general this carnival already, a quite remarkable trainer has straightened up some quirky sorts and has had numeours winners at 10-1+, horse has some solid form and leaving mick channon is generally a plus anyway

On all at the moment.

Got 60/1 on Noor Zabeel. Was looking at him myself trainer always pulls a shock out the bag.

Kirstys lad just went from 22/1 to 50/1 on Skybet! has it got 4 legs?

its 80/1 on betfair.....

Hope this guy pulls out hero status soon.

My betfair is locked! :(

Got good feeling about LuckyDan, got good write up and looks strong. Hes due a winner

Hope so im doing my knackers here.

Tell me about it........... but this LuckyDan is coming in.

If i keep writing it will it happen>?

 Positives: Timeform tip him for 2nd, my name is Dan.
 Negatives: Hes called LuckyDan and im UnluckyDan

I was on Flying Applause in the first race, and I'm against you lads in this next race as well but wish you luck.  I am on Driving Home in the next. 

+1 hi Dan

going well all hopes all lie on the 64/1 shot at 3:45 nail this one and all is happy!

not sure why but i managed to put some money on the 3.45 meydan 'fancy'.

Went to 23/1 in running from 80/1 got excited then it faded at least i feel like a mini sweat was had

What annoyed me was they had no commentry on ATR, they panned to a blue one with a white hat at the end, and I thought HELLO based on Kingslet's position at the turn! Ah well! more sweat than your average 33/1 shot.  Interesting gamble in the next at Wolves, out from 14/1 to 30/1 now back in to 10/1, this has AW steal written all over it!

Need gabriels bounty in the 17.10 to get out for the day.

Good luck man, i think you might need a wee bit. 

How did i miss this! Girgy start a thread!

few for tonight will update probably later on

5.40 wolverhampton ATHAAKEEL 12-1 bluesq 1pt win last few weeks unusually high draw has been favoured very good claimer and horse does win races around here just a bit to big

6.40 wolvehampton CHOOKIE HAMILTON 9-1 general 2pts win back down to correct class now fit and an admirable old performer expect to go very close at least here

5.50 dundalk bubbly belini 20-1 1pt win general finally gets a low draw which is key here didnt run as badly as result suggest last week

8.50 dundalk saint by day 11-1 general 1pt win been running ok gets full headgear tonight and an easier contest

On none of em so all gonna romp home.

Another crappy day. I popped into bookies earlier to put a footie bet on for the weekend and couldn't do anything on horses.

I had a bet on the 8/11 fav in the 4.40 (I think) and it came last.

Lost about £500 today, another reason to quit gambling!!!!

has a winner been tipped yet ????

No, its not a thread i'll be following.

Haven't really followed the thread but to be fair he is betting at bigger prices so even if he was a big winner he could quite easily not have backed a winner yet.

come back redarmi , was following your dairy every day mate , brilliant read, i presume you havent the time at the moment , wish you had , loving your tips regards  big lew  hull

Saturday

MOONLIGHT DRIVE - 2.35 Muss 1pt win 9-2 general

A winner on his debut in this country at Wetherby 12 mths ago, he was then pitched in at the deep end when contesting the Albert Bartlett at the festival the following month. Had no chance there and then ran on unraceable ground last time should win this

KOUP DE KANON - 3.45 Muss 8-1 2pts win

Used to be a big rogue before mccain got hold of him still didnt get up cheltenham hill last time but should love it here and in receipt of 13lb from Ubi Ace I fancy him to continue that improvement today.

8-1 is far to big

STOPPED OUT - 4.20 Muss 1pt win 11-4

poor race but gets weight from moderate rivals and should win this

COTILLION - 4.50 Muss 1pt win 9-2

decent flat horse already won over 2 miles over hurdles and flat rating suggests longer trip will suit better here


AMERICAN SPIN 4.45 Kempton 1pt win 6-1

Not a bad race this for a class 5 this horse has improved massively lately over the jumps and now comes back to the poly off 69 which looks more than fair in an open race.



Saint by Day touched 1.08 in running last night and lucky dan arguably would have won with a better ride/clearing passage. Those are the breaks in this game and on another week id be a good few points up.

thanks for all comments

On the lot for the max bet365 will allow. (which isn't much :()

fml, had a plnge on stopped out myself, might have to lay off IR :)

this must be like 25/20 horses given now but still i recall no win !!!! surely soon hes gonna tip one :)

Its not uncommon to go on runs like this without a win. 

Absolutely.  He has tipped 17 horses so far and they probably have an average price of about 10/1 so even if the true price of his horses is 9/1 on each and he was getting value there is a 16.67% chance he would tip 17 consecutive losers.  Totally within the realms of possiblility.  At the beginning of this year I went 10 days without a winner averaging 6 bets a day and I am well in front for the year.  I remember once I was betting Asian handicaps (average price of evens) for a syndicate and managed to go 0-18 one Saturday.  17 is absolutely no sample size.

sunday

1.15 southwell Ron 18-1 general 1pt eway us bred bred all the way for the fibresand unlike most others in here might not be any good but did show some promise on debut

3.20 southwell union island 20-1 0.5pts eway and river dragon 18-1 0.5pts eway both proven here from the flat and in decent form tough race which looks more like a standard all weather stayers race than a jumpers contest.

2.10 leopardstown lord windermere 1pt win 8-1 general from an unfashionable stable the form of the last run ties in with the favourite here

3.10 leopardstown gimlis rock 0.5pts eway 14-1 general and munsaab 0.5pts eway 16-1

Is the move to betting e/w a reaction to a few losing bets or the criticism of some posters in this thread or have you decided that these horses are more likely to place than win?

If its the former, I'd tell the haters to gtfo and continue as you were. 

Good luck with todays selections though. 

Nice result in the first race there bud.  I got paid!

Norr. Missed the first one!!! On the rest.

last for today

3.45 leopardstown

1pt win follow the plan 18-1 betdaq/betfair

Placing a tip at 3.44.52 for a race at 3.45 are not the most useful ever :D

Specially without naming the hos!

But good for us..

4.50 leopardstown

centurian 13-1 betfair/betdaq 1pt win

ran well on debut on ground thats probably to soft

not even in the frame.

Monday quiet day

2.40 wolverhampton

0.5pts win canadian danehill 9-1 bet365

0.5pts win replicator 33-1 bet365


5.40 wolverhampton

0.5pts landy mango 14-1 ladbrokes

On All. GL us

wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

any winners itt?

nice to get the first outright win today especially from such a grand old boy

running total = -14pts

hopefully the start of a few more winners

3.50 southwell salontrye 10-1 0.5pts win b.o.g bet365 (improved massively over jumps recently breeding suggests this will be ok and is a strong traveller so should suit here bit big in an open race)

4.55 southwell sergeant troy 10-1 o.5pts win bog bet365 (has masses of ability and i cant believe baker isnt going to land a punt from this one soon the owner doesnt mess about if backed will probably win)

Had a little bit on Salontyre, no market move in 455 so holding off, looks to be a few with chances!

Kealigolane 1.40 Kelso.

Ew 10/1 with S*ybet and Ladbrokes.

Get on quick.

On for £40

Pint heading your way if it does a win.

10/1 all gone.

9/1 still with bet365 and bluesquirrel.

Worth taking at 8//1 but I wouldn't bother if it's less than that.

Missed the 10's but secured £20 ew with Coral!!

Cheers Camel

Can lay it at 6.8/1 on betfair now if you want to take a profit or just have a sweet freeroll.

i had it on my betslip at 8/1 and it crashed to 5/1 between then and trying to place the bet.

Gl those who are on.

Never been one for the safe option.

£560 stripper tokens if it wins. This would make me happy so I'll stick with that.

Been delayed there off now!

4th :(

Load of rubbish.

Sorry guys.

I hope you're happy with yourself!!

At £20 a time that's 28 very sad strippers Mr Camel :(

Tail too bushy IMO

Think you need to question your quality control ;)

Not at the places I go to they aren't.

On form at the minute Matt, lolol.

2pts win best trip 6.10 kempton 8-1 general BOG

THE quickest horse bar none that run around here and has at last been given a decent draw to attack from, ideal pacers not ideal but they will now they cant lead up best trip in this grade and from this draw should last a lot longer and hopefully hang on at the end

threads gone quiet last 2 days...

but Rody at Leicester 16:05 at 8/1 has been mentioned around here today

oioiii, gd work.

Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii, please say someone else backed this with me. Would love some blondes to get paid out on my tip :-)

Think i may start my own thread lol!

ChipRich did ^

I didn't unfortunately as spectacularly missed the price. Good shout mate.

Sighhhhhhh I'm in a conference call with work and missed it :(


Congrats the boys who got on wpwp!!

Sigh conference calls!

Anyways heading off now but same guy dropped me a whisper of Cesium at 17:05 Leicester anything over 5/1 should be good.

Cue everyone who missed last one back this one and then boks it!

Haha cheers on

Might aswell lose some back on this 1 too then, on at 6/1

ty, gl us.

Just gone favourite on betfair fwiw. Means nothing until it puts that sexy little neck over the line

on!

ffs, 2nd. went 1.5 in running.

ty neway.

Norrrrr good run 2nd. i was on ew

Great sweat, thanks for the heads up  :)up

Sorry couldn't make it 2/2.

Great contact in Leicester now so will let you know if anything is passed on.

1pt win olynard average odds 28-1 8.15 kempton

i put £50 on diplomatic @ 4/1 ship. Might resurrect my horse thread.

Good racing this afternoon at the re-arranged Newbury fixture. Some decent trials for Cheltenham.

I'm going for a double on the short priced favourites in the first two:

12:10 Sprinter Sacre 4/7 ish
12:40 Long Run 4/9 ish

Anyone want to put me off before I dash to the bookis at lunch?

planning of betting these in my spin up challenge you will be lucky to get 4/7 for sprinters sacre trading on betfair now at 1.5

oh and long run is about 1.65

Cheers.

Thats got to be good value. No Kauto Star today.

thats my hope

So a nice little earner.

I've had a small bet on Colour Squadron at 1:50 and put the rest of my winnings on Sprinter Sacre for the Arkle at 6/4.

FML was gonna stick £50 on Zarkander @3/1 but went 11/4 and was swayed to bet on that Olofi £25 ew siiiigh :(

McCoy took a bad one! That mans made of iron!

thread snap in trouble of turning farcical as soon as griggy the only one stomping them in

2pt win 2.50 lingfield henry san 3-1

crossbar there

two more for this afternoon maybe some more tonight

3.05 fakenham temple lord 1pt win 20-1 betfair/betdaq

4.00 lingfield moderator 1pt win 14-1 general bog

Got two for the boys this afternoon.

3.05 Fakenham LAY Temple Lord

4.00 Lingfield LAY Moderator

glglgl

lol

6.45 wolverhampton grecian goddess average odds 20-1 betfair 0.5pts win

6.55 dundalk 0.5pt win 16-1 general bog fleeting moment

I feel slightly unwell.

I had a dab at the first one and left the second alone but considered the 28 on BF briefly before dismissing it as a bad idea.

Good tipstering sir.

wd on the 16/1 winner

thank you for kind comments sarcastic ones i can do without to be honest and don't gain anybody anything.

full update tommorow night

2.25 ascot tullamore dew 0.5pts win 12-1 general bog

3.20 haydock neptunes collonges 10-1 0.5pts win boylesports

thats it for tommorow im away all day so just had a look at couple that are in my opinion overpriced this evening

feel pretty down tonight to be honest

two horses beaten a combined neck, tulamore arguably should have won neptune ran a superb race and was only denied by a ride of the season candidate by dennis o reagan on the winner

my mood wasnt helped by having a decent win double on the two last night as well which even for me is pretty galling...

anyway onwards and upwards as said before very small margins in this game

running total = - 14pts

Know exactly how you feel.  I actually won a couple of quid today but the whole week I have been short heads and necks away from a really good week but as it is I have done it in...Very small margins in this game.  Backed both your picks today and thought Tulamore Dew in particular was going to get there.

sunday

3.00 ffos las DOURYNA 9-2 1pt win

4.40 ffos las UMORISTIC 0.5PTS EWAY 20-1 general bog

1.50 navan 0.5pts eway both selections PROTARAS 12-1 general bog and ESSEXBRIDGE 20-1 general bog

3.25 navan 0.5pts eway TAKESTAN 12-1 bog

with a 25-1 shot placing a small loss today , again frustating takestan nearly placed but ran ok, the irish novice hurdle i was correct in opposing the two shorties but got the wrong ones.

running total = -14.5 pts

couple of small plays tommorow at wolverhampton

2.45 wolverhampton 0.5pts win just timmy marcus 7-1 bog

6.00 wolverhampton 0.5pts win lucky dan 10-1 bog

and a small 0.5pts eway double the above two

good luck fella, I am enjoying following the fortunes of your fancies..

thank bobby well jtmarcus was punted to fav and ran ok never looked like winning though

i cant believe lucky dan is 28-1 here so have had a further 0.5pt win bet at 28-1 betfair

Unseated Rider after Saddle slipped.

yep not ideal tbh! the horse has one at massive prices before after drifting maybe somebody knew the horse was going to race like that today maybe not anyway one to ignore at least until franny is on board around chester with a low draw.

running total = -16.5pts

When a Paul Green horse drifts from 10/1 to 33/1 it isn't going to win.

Simples.

camel i respect you but presumably you thought the same when it won at wolverhampton on the 14th jan last year at 33-1 (38 bfsp) drifting from 16-1?

a few for tommorow some good jumps action

2.40 wetherby 1pt win vc bet bog PEEDEEQUE , still unexposed with o meara ran a cracker last time considering missed 3 of the last 4 hurdles cant afford to do that in here against these but remains open to improvement

2.30 taunton 1pt win ppower MULOCHY BAY this horse is now below winning mark , i no the sheppard yard have fancied it recently but its not shown a lot for a while, the stable however are in better nick now and 14-1 is worth chancing

3.40 taunton 1pt win ski sunday 14-1 general bog cracking race this for a tuesday afternoon in feb, the fav looks a bit short to me with gary moores horses still running a little under par, ski sunday hasnt taken to chasing at all and as a result is now lower than when hacking up fro the excellent lawney hill at kempton last year, the stable form of tim vaughan is a worry but he has had a few run better recently

pretty poor today only peedeeqe ran even ok

will update thread every saturday night from now on

just a few very smallplays tommorow


7.30 kempton 0.5pts win bets PETIT ECUYER 14-1 BOG AND INUDS VALLEY 33-1 BOG

8.30 kempton 0.5pts win bets VERY WELL RED 10-1 BOG AND ROSY DAWN 11-1 BOG

Also been tipped VERY WELL RED, so am on although it has drifted to 11/2.

thursday

1pt win THREE WHITE SOCKS 10-1 SOUTHWELL 3.40

1pt win MAYS BOY 9-1 KEMPTON 8.50

1PT WIN NOOR ZABEEL 3.45 MEYDAN (best morning general price )

close again at meydan at 16-1 :( lets hope mays boy runs well in the last certainly got the price

1.50 sandown 2pts win MAHFAL 6-1 bog (the blinkers should enable a win here)

4.40 sandown 1pt win MID DIV AND CREEP 10-1 bog general

4.05 warwick 0.5pt win SPORTING BOY

Might set myself up as a bookie to take horseplayers bets. Can't lose.

Troll more?

It's buyer beware as anything no need to give him rubs too imo

betting on the odds you have to expect to lose little bits here and there but when they come in they will hurt the bookie


keep up the tip horseplayer

Yes thats true he's not a favourite backer.

Yea sorry im out of order.

Nice one on Sporting Boy... got it 20/1 EW this morning and ended up 9-1 SP for 2nd

shocking day so far worst by far

one more tonight TEVEZ 10-1 general 7.30 wolverhampton 1pt win

tevez was very unlucky but that doesnt pay the bills

fancy a few tommorow and a full update tommorow night

2.15 lingfield 1pt win picansort 14-1 general

3.55 lingfield 3pts win copperwood 6-1 bet365 (was 8-1 earlier which was  a massive rick, has a chance on form anyway but blanshard to mark johnstone is a massive trainer switch whichever way you shake it)

2.30 kempton 1pt win panjo bere 12-1 bet365

4.45 kempton 0.5pts eway tasheaba 28-1 general

good luck good luck..  :)up

fak the haters..  ;)

thanks for support

have no real problem with the negative posters either if thats how you feel then fine , based on 6 of my last 8 years it will turn and i WILL end the year in profit

its a small margins game at times but one thing is for sure ill keep going

good man.

VBOL.

added my first cheltenham bet

TRIUMPH HURDLE 33-1 1PT WIN LADBROKES DODGING BULLETS

not that impressed with any of the principles so far and alas hope this one runs well.win today and shortens

Awww. bless the chap on C 4 with happy tears cos his horse won :)

yeh brilliant story mate, he bought the horse from new trainer keiran burke. Knott gave burke his first winner as a jokey. He bought the horse cheap and its gone up 4 stone in the handicap this season. Talking to nick luck about 1.20pm on RUK he said "get your pension plan on it" "it will have it sewn up by 2 out" id already backed it, and went in again for my biggest bet in ages. Won so well, and great to see mr knott so happy after. Incidentally a few wins back, Knott jumped on the back of his horse after it won lol, and got a small fine. This is what racing is all about.

lol. was so funny when he jumped on with the jockey . guy was so happy . fair play : )

much needed winner today and my first 3pt bet winning in the end fairly easily seemed weakish on the machine near the off but that didnt matter

picansort ran well the other two not so much


running total =-14pts

here a superb anthony knott clip from his first ever winner just brilliant if you haven't seen it

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1EHL4OMlK4

Wasn't meaning to troll, just thought pressing up was a mistake.

I lilke the way you think with your selections.

I wouldn't want to lay your bets. gl.

no sorry as well you are a good judge reading some of your stuff on here and i appreciate all input

thanks for kind words

dodging bullets ran well but probably isnt streetwise enough for the triumph the price is a little shorter now but i didnt like the hanging (maybe green) hopefully win run in the race even if it looks to have only a small chance

tricky enough day but do fancy a good few

2.15 naas luddsdenne 10-1 general bog 0.5pts eway

3.10 fontwell massini sunset 20-1 general bog 0.5pts eway

3.40 fontwell battle group 11-1 skybet 1pt win

2.50 towcester lord kennedy 125-1 0.5pts eway stan james

4.25 fiveways 11-1 stan james 0.5pts eway stan james


might have another one later depending how day is going gd lk all

no good but heres a few more could be an expensive day

Rough times 4.45 fontwell 1pt win 9-=1 betfair

5.25 Towc. Pearls Legend 1pt win 10-1


Fontwell 5.15 Whatsupjack 1pt win 7-1

shocking day i lost my rag a bit after the 125-1 shot got done a neck for a place shouldnt happen but still does occasionally

2.30 wolverhampton perlachy 10-1 1pt win hills

4.30 wolverhampton honey of a kitten 1pt win 8-1 hills

6.00 wolverhampton symphonic dancer 1pt win 12-1 bet365

honey of the kitten wins at 11-4 price was all wrong last night

other two ran ok without looking like winning at any stage really

tommorow is pretty uninspiring just a couple of very small plays

really dont like the market leaders in the 2.50 at catterick and infact wouldnt be shocked if the two i fancy are the head of the market by off time

0.5pts eway dane cottage 6-1 general 2.50 catterick

0.5pts eway helena of troy 8-1 general 2.50 catterick

gd lk all

Nice price on Honey of a Kitten...  enjoying following this thread ty

thanks splash not so good today

6.35 wolverhampton 0.5pt win italian tom 7-1 general

6.35 wolverhampton 1pt win best trip 16-1 willim hill (again! :( )

3.45 folkestone midnight opera 0.5pts eway 12-1 ladbrokes

FYP

thank you splash

so frustating that

best trip trades at evens in running and showed a lot more tonight, italian tom trades at 1-5 in running and gets beat by the other guest runner

thems the breaks

shoirt head vul.

thursday a decent days action

4.20 southwell 1pt eway the lock master 8-1 vc bet

7.40 kempton 1pt win royal intruder 25-1 bet365

8.40 kempton 1pt win hoover 10-1 general

Jesus talk about close yesterday, thats why trading is importnat when you can spot good horses at big prices.

Keep it up

friday

3.50 lingfield ability n delivery 9-2 ladbrokes 3pts win (stable had similar type win tonight at kempton the dundalk recent form is much better than this grade imo)

5.00 lingfield sos brilliante 1pt win 20-1 bet365

7.40 wolverhampton hidden glory 1.5pts eway 7-1 bet365

ability n delivery never looked in any doubt...  had a wee dabble at 9/2 yesterday and a little more at 7s today when it drifted.   :)

Ta

Well done 5/1 winner

good stuff mate

thanks guys very kind fancy a couple more tonight but will wait until nearer the off as big prices

not around tommorow so will put any plays up soon for tommorow and do a full update on sunday

thanks again

SATURDAY

3.25 DONCASTER 1PT WIN IKORODU ROAD 11-2 BET365 OR STAN JAMES BOG

4.35 DONCASTER 1PT WIN SPORTS LINE 14-1 GENERAL

5.10 DONCASTER 0.5PTS EWAY LODEN 12-1 VC BET

3.55 LINGFIELD FIRST POST 1PT WIN 16-1 LADBROKES

I'm curious, what's the thought process that goes into recommending a win bet or an ew?

splash i dont mean to be rude but im away very early tommorow (about 5am train) i will answer that on sunday if thats ok?

couple more for tonight

KIRSTYS LAD 0.5pts win betfair (lets say 85-1 some pennies at 100-1 at present) 8.40 (prob be off about 9.20pm)

COPPERS 0.5PTS EWAY 16-1 BOYLESPORTS dundalk 9.15

the already thread fav (maybe wrong word lol) touched 7-4 in running from 100-1 but just faded late

Not rude at all... take ur time fella :D

Another winner irokado road 3/1 i backed 2nd junior, cant;t believe it lost in photo.

thanks biddy

nothing today will update thread and answer all questions later on

thanks for support

Did you think it had won? I was at Donny everybody thought Junior had got up.

On the Tv it looked like Junior and it was trading around 1.4 before the decision.

It was only when they showed the actual print that i could believe it.

tbh i still havent watched the finish will do later

really please for matt sheppard as i have mentioned on here before he is a bloody good trainer and this is by far his best horse hopefully he gets some more from it

UPDATE

a cracking week really and the overall total is now just short at -2.5 points.

A week were nearly everything i backed shortened some from massive prices and 2 decent eway bets that just got touched off for 3rd (always the way!) kirstys lad trading at 7-4 from 100-1 was pretty galling but ill go onto trading out in a minute.

Do you have any fancies for Cheltenham lining up?

"Posted by: Splash
Insert Quote
I'm curious, what's the thought process that goes into recommending a win bet or an ew?"

i try my best to just limit myself to win only singles, there are certain races were an eway bet is very appealing (odds on fav that may be vunerable e.t.c) however to many of these and it is even harder to get bets on than it is. On other occasions like for example hidden glory the other night the horse isn't the greatest in a tight finish but pretty much always runs a race on the poly with headgear on which it did again despite drifting massively beforehand.

The overnight markets being available on the lower grade racing is both a godsend and not, the firms haven't got a clue without betfairs guiding hand and the ricks over the last few months have been massive. However you have to weigh up connections e.t.c some will still run the horse on its merits but some i wouldn't touch and wont be happy waking up finding the 6-1 is now 5-2 and will wait for another day.

I apologise if i miss any comments or questions i do appreciate them all when im not sure if the poster is being genuine or not i just ignore the post, this is in no way intending to be rude on my part but i dont have a great deal idea of how this forum or any for that matter work.

thanks

found the quote button! i have a few yes and will be posting some tonight there is also a special bet i quite like the look of but am just researching a little bit more first before commiting

i try not to go to mad at cheltenham as personally i find the majority of races really tough, good trainers good horses and all bar none are there race fit aimed at that race (usually) that doesnt make a great mix of punting imo

Yes i'm the same, only took me 25 years to realise Cheltenham is really tricky. I usually look for each way bets as opposed to lumping on shorties. I think its going to be a favourite year this one. Im having a £50 accumalator sprinter sacre, sizing europe,hurricane fly and big bucks pay around £500

fair play to you and i wish you luck not that you need to much of it with those excellent beasts

Somebody posted earlier about how its important to lay off especially when you have backed at massive prices. I used to take this view but now don't lay of at all, if you actually review your bets after say each year the "value" you will have given back in running is scary. An example you back a horse at 33-1 and leave an in running lay at say evens it is taken and horse goes onto win easily, in reality for a horse trading that big pre race and to get matched that low you are very likely to have laid the horse at evens when its actually chance of winning was 6-4/1-2. This doesn't matter or bother you when you land a 33-1 winner but it should.

I used to lay off but a punter i respect massively looked through my bets and suggested i left the bets as they were in 5 of the last 7 years i have made a profit in the 2 i didnt i was still laying off in running... This in itself doesnt prove anything but plenty of others i have talked to since also dont lay back in running.

This is of course completely different if you are a trader something i have never been able to win at doing probably to much of a gambler.

gd lk all possibly cheltenham bets tonight..

Monday

4.00 lingfield 1pt win GRAND GOLD 33-1 ladbrokes

2.45 hereford 1pt win at sp MEDIC MAN (plenty of more high profile connections with unexposed animals so i expect this one to go off at least 20-1 )

as for cheltenham the bets i was considering now arent as big as i thought in terms of price so im leaving them for now however i have had one special bet which i feel is overpriced

Cheltenham special bet

There to be 13 or more irish winners at the cheltenham festival 6-1 2PTS WIN (totesport or betfred)

i have been looking at this all day after somebody i respect pointed it out to me, last season the irish hit 13 winners and presumably the two bookies offering 6-1 for a repeat are thinking it was a fluke. I am not so sure mullins is clear fav to be champion trainer and not unusually they have lots of chances in all races with cheltenham become more and more the target for all trainers i happen to think last years numbers might become the norm rather than not.

:D Result on Medic Man...  got it at 14-1 Best Odds this AM and it went off at 8-1 cheers

On the right side of a photo finish for once, nice tip!

 Well done horseplayer, it looked a matter of time before the figs showed a profit.

firstly i really appreciate the support and glad somebody got the bigger price this morning!

i wasnt able to get on with any bog firms and then when hugh taylor tipped it i knew the price was in trouble still the horse fought well and won and we are into profit for the first time which is always nice

quiet day tommorow

TUESDAY

3.40 SOUTHWELL 1pt win irish jugger 10-1 general and 1pt win cotton king 9-1 bet365

does girggles still want to lay your bets?

+1 LOL

Yer is he still -14points?

FML.

Great selection Medic Man.

Been busy all day, just catching up.. had two emails telling me to back this horse and now I find out horseplayer put it up too!

The whole world except me was on it seems!

Nh sir.

he was only 2.5 down before he tipped a 20-1 winner so i think you owe him a few points now mate

With regards to paddy powers arkle chase promo what happen if your horse finishes 2nd behind Sprinter Sacre and you do it each way? It says promo includes each way bets so Is the each way part paid as normal and the win part also refunded? I have tried to find T&C's but cant find

For example Camels prediction of Al ferof has been bet in considerably now at 5/2 so if it places you get £81.25 for £50 e/w; which is < than the £100 refunded if it just loses.

Also whats peoples thoughts for menorah in this race with this promo at 8/1 e/w?

It only applies to the win part of the ew bet. It is a refund on all losers though, doesn't have to come 2nd.

TY.... Thoughts on menorah?

Punching 2:40 Southwell 13/2

for the first time annoyed with myself today didnt fancy them enough to post but did lesson learnt (hopefully)


wednesday

3.10 lingfield MR PLOD 10-1 GENERAL BOG 1PT WIN TALBOT GREEN 16-1 0.5PTS EWAY GENERAL BOG

6.30 kempton ONERIC 10-1 1pt win bet365 bog

I'm no expert but I quite like it. With Peddlers Cross out I don't see why it can't make the frame.

and a further cheltenham bet

2pts eway champion hurdle without hurricance fly OSCARS WELL 6-1 STAN JAMES (first 3 1-4 odds)

right firstly i think hurricane fly will most likely win this easily enough , however oscars has solid cheltenham form has been running on dead/soft ground all year (prefers good which almost certainly will get) the stable are in much better form now than the last few months. I dont trust binocular (which one will turn up?), zarkandar is on a new set of medication (not ideal), i dont really think rock on ruby is good enough, thousand stars is a good horse but might not run here/wont be quick enough anyway and overturn might hang on for a place but probably wont be good enough. This is my biggest bet of the year so far. non runner no bet applies to this bet

I can't see Menorah getting round, jumped like a crab last time at Donny.

late tip[

8.30 kempton GAMBATTE 8-1 general 1pts eway

shocking stuff today

THURSDAY

4.30 SOUTHWELL MOZAYADA 1PT WIN WILLIAM HILL 16-1 BOG

5.00 SOUTHWELL WAKING WARRIOR 2PTS WIN BET365 7-1 BOG

Waking Warrior is definitely the interesting one. Bet £3.65 went 10-1 early this evening but soon went and all firms are ducking it now.

8.10 wolverhampton 1pt win MONADREEN DANCER 12-1 betfair

8.4o wolverhampton HILBRE COURT 14-1 general 0.5pts eway

week tailed of bigtime here

fancy a few at dundalk tommorow night will post then really like

EURHYTHMIC 12-1 1PT EWAY 4.20 WINCANTON bet365 bog

Brousse en feux - 4;15 leicester has been tipped to me.

sorry if anyone got on.

1pt win METHAALY 34-1 BETFAIR

6.00 DUNDALK 1PT WIN 11-1 CALM BAY BETFAIR

6.50 wolverhampton 2pts win CELESTIAL DAWN 10-1 betfair

No such horse??

it was in the 18:20

Saved me there then.
Keep up the tips horseplayer, enjoy following

life events mean im not able to do an update tonight +hence why no selections today

SUNDAY

1PT WIN MARKET RASEN 4.25 PEEDEEQUE 10-1 BETFRED BOG

3PTS WIN WARWICK FIVEWAYS 11-1 PADDY POWER (NOT BOG) (took a while to get the 3pts on!)

thanks

Followed your advice and dabbled on Fiveways. PP generously allowed me to have £4.80 on @11/1, BF were slightly more accommodating though.

It's generally 7/1 now

5-1on bf now.... Managed 12-1 thivs am

certainly smashed the price and any chance of me ever using pp again the horse didnt read the script however and ran on when it was all to late hard to no what to make of that tbh

i didnt want to play again but after the stables runner nearly winning earlier THE MIGHTY MOD 1PT WIN BETFAIR 11-1 3.50 MARKET RASEN (dropped 10lbs from only good run in a better race at ludlow, back going the "right" way round and must have a chance in an awful race)

monday

4.10 stratford 10-1 musnad 2pt win ladbrokes (not bog)

will start probably at the most 5-1 , horse has been a bit of a money burner for the stable but i no for a fact that ellison think it has quite a lot of potential as a hurdler just hope it stays fully

update -14.5 points so far

a poor week staked a lot because i fancied a lot and most were well backed again, however not had the breaks along with some very poor runs

lets hope cheltenham shows an upturn

Please don't back sprinter sacre or hurricane fly tia

I'll have a £25 match-bet on horseplayer v's you in the Chelters tipster competition if you both enter.

That should make it a freeroll for you shouldn't it?

girgy i havent responded before but please dont leave comments like that on this thread

i havent got the time or inclination to talk to negative people

im not selling anything, preaching anything or pretending to be an expert

No worries if you can't hack a joke pal

were was the joke?

pretty such i dont understand at least half of the sarcasm on this forum but please leave me be

No more horsing around.....

not a bad run today

unfourtantley real life has got in the way again and i wont be able to post for the near future

wish everybody luck and hope to get this kickstarted again asap

thanks for support

That's a shame, enjoyed this thread.

Hope things work out for you bud. gl and hope u carry this on in the future

Sorry to hear that, have been following with interest!

Good luck with the real life lad.

Hope you sort everything out.

Really enjoyed this thread and managed to happily do a few quid on random tips.

Looking forward to you starting up again soon.

Aye all the best!

Hope to see you back here soon, a lot of us enjoyed this thread and would like to see it up and running again.

All the best.

I hope all is well at home, mate, you will be much missed here.

good luck Horseplayer, always like reading peoples thoughts that think outside the box and aren't afraid to put selections up, esp at the prices you did.

all the best

Any tips for the lincoln on saturday? Got a few free bets at ladbrokes to punt on it!

One of twins in the last race at donny I got given. Worth a free punt.

Cheers Girgy!

its time to ressurect this thread

full update saturday night

four plays tommorow

2.05 doncaster SNOW BAY 16-1 1PTS EWAY BET365 (5 PLACES) reasoning= goes well fresh, below winning mark has high draw which i believe may be favourable here

6.05 doncaster ONE FOR JOULES NON RUNNER THIS MORNING (price in morning) looks the one here, wins races well handicapped and ran a cracker on re appearance at wolverhampton. In the last two days the stable have finally hit some kind of form as well which helps + a good looking jockey booking hoping for some 8-1+ in the morning.

3.30 kempton WILLIAM HAIGH 1pts eway 8-1 BOYLESPORTS this horse has progressed massively this winter, he only ever does enough and has dossed at the end of its last 3 wins. This leads me to believe there is more to come when he gets in a real scrap even if there isnt i make it a 6-1 shot in here at best.

3.55 stratford KNIGHT IN PURPLE 1pts eway 7-1 bet365 very consistent horse who ran some crackers last season, has run 2 more than respectable races this year (when stable was way out of form) stable is now back in form horse normally runs better/wins in the spring and it looks hard for this consistent type to be out of the 3 here (cue 4th)


gd lk all

one early one for tommorow pretty sure will start near favourite

3.20 SWILLY FERRY 12-1 BET365 2PTS WIN (nice trainer switch for a sprinter very well handicapped, there are plenty with chances in this but im not sure any have anything in hand of there marks)

On for a cheeky score with paddypower at 12s

Good to have you back. Good luck!!!

Yeh good luck, might try an sneak a friendly on it.

running total =-20pts

a very small profit today knight in purple arguably should have won but once again we smashed the sp (the horse isnt the easiest so maybe im being harsh) , snow bay ran ok but was a bad bet as its nearly impossible to make all at donny these days , william haigh ran as if something was wrong..

maybe some more bets in morning but i very much doubt it

thanks for support

i was wrong theres more

2.34 limerick 3PTS WIN MUSAWAMA 10-3 SKYBET (faster ground will suit i am led to believe this horse was very very well fancied for the fred winter but ended up missing the cut as elliott was to busy pissing about with the handicap mark, tight track will also suit its speed)

5.35 doncaster 1PT WIN GLOBAL VILLAGE 14-1 general unexposed on turf booking of fallon looks key for ellison

frustating day

musawama is either a bit soft in the head or being lined up for a bigger prize still, travelled like a dream under carberry until appearing to not really find a lot though still appeared to be on the bridle at the line, a confusing effort especially as the horse started clear favourite.

swilly ferry never got competitive either wasnt fit or is being saved for something else (ran on well at the end)

global village was well backed and got crucified 1 furlong out might not have won but if fallon is cruising 1 out he normally goes close, unfourtantley we are unlikely to get such a big price next time

a couple for tommorow in the same race that will be all

redcar 4.15

2pts win ABLE MASTER 10-1 william hill

1pt win ARRYS ORSE 10-1 BET365

two interesting trainer switches and two well handicapped horses, i am quite confident one of these will be punted but more importantly it would be nice to get a winner!

pretty frustating again

beat the price on both (again) able master ran on very at the end but either needs a little further or didnt get the run

i have my eye on one race at southwell tommorow but need to see prices first

just the two bets tommorow in a very tasty looking eway race (hopefully all 8 stand)

the 3.20 at southwell is a mix of old "favourites" and what drew me to this race is the fact carnac is the overnight favourite. This horse is a consistent type around the low 50's mark and is now at a career high mark of 60, this horse has failed to follow up a win before very quickly and is a very dubious favourite, i will be very surprised if this is fav tommorow. Med Sea is a grand old stick around but also finds herself from a mark of 75!! this sweet traveller normally excels in bossing very weak class 6 fields this isnt a lot stronger but whilst i see her running well i dont think she is a good thing.

THREE WHITE SOCKS 7-1 BET365 2PTS EWAY is a younger animal that runs southwell well, no great shakes by any means but should appreciate receiving weight against these and is fairly handicapped. SHIFTING GOLD 1pt EWAY 10-1 PADDY POWER runs southwell well pretty much always and is a rarity in this race is dropping in the handicap, timeform note is becoming temperamental im not so sure just think has been in to tough recently.


This race will make or break my week but i expect the market to look very different near the off with med sea around the 2-1 mark, carnac maybe as big as 4-1/9-2 and three white socks similar. If i think this i have to play on tonights prices

gd lk all

You would have to go a long way to see a pre race analysis as good as that Horseplayer.

diff class mate.

It's not only the 1st and 2nd but the reading of the market a day before it ran that is v impressive.

WP indeed m8 glad you got paid on both excellent work!!

WP watched the race without a bean on and chuffed you got a result.
Great analysis!!

Top work horsey.

First lot of your's that ive not backed in a while as well. Nice analysis.

He all but said med  sea would finish 3rd to, would have been a nice tricast.

firstly many many thanks for the kind comments

today was the day the hard work finally paid of but its only one day and this game will bite you quick enough...

two people have sent me messages saying how did i no which way the market would go, the answer is i did not it was to a degree an educated guess. As somebody pointed out on another day the two animals could have tailed off but luckily they do not pay out with a furlong to go.... :)

tommorow looks a possible no bet day i have my eye on one race at lingfield for a small bet so may update in the morning

thanks again

Nice one

my main fancy today has shrunk in price by half this morning so no bet, unlikely to be any others but will obviously post if that changes

7.50 DUNDALK 1PT WIN LUISANT 8-1 BETFAIR

reasoning=

ran better than it looked on comeback at curragh in a very hot sprint on a day were nothing made all

has best draw here tonight

runs track fine

berry booked one of the best around here

very well handicapped

might get an easyish lead

gd lk if anybody follows

for the first time in about four seasons the horse missed the break and that was that


one bet tommorow

4.50 ludlow MATERIAL BOY 8-1 1PT WIN bet365 bog

not a bad race this , the likely favourite carminero is solid enough with the stable in better form now the current second and third favourites are exposed as ok horses. The selection has had the three qualifying runs as is generally the case with nick williams. The horse is bred for at least this trip and the second run was very promising indeed in a decent race. the current 8-1 looks a little big for all the stable is a bit quiet for my liking.

Was on the last one but didn't see the race and I'll get on this one too m8.

Good luck us :)

Hearing some good vibes about City Press in this race.

Good Luck

yes worryingly (for me) strong in the market

Big difference in prices for City Press. Paddy Power are 3/1, Stan James 5/1.

Couldn't resist a few quid on at 5/1.

what a strange race

the selection was well punted late and ran like it bled straight away

the other two fancies ran absolute shockers, one of those races i guess

beat the market again but never in with a shout

Keep them coming m8 :)

a very rare nh flat bet in the last

7.25 clonmel flirtin n flauntin 16-1 coral 1pts eway

ran a cracker on debut in a nh flat race at leopardstown on similar ground in a race that has worked out well, ran a shocker last time on heavy have re watched that and struggled from the off so can write that off with ground. I would be very doubtful that a clonmel race would be as strong as that debut and although the clear favourite must be respected i dont think this much depth. good trainer and good jockey in this sphere

 

I've dabbled ew, after being subjected to the countdown "sending to trader" minute from them.

Had a tickle. Good luck.

was running a cracker and would have probably placed

unfourtantley was put down after breaking down during the race

horrid scenes

I watched the race...again great tipping and pre race analysis regardless    :)
 
Shame for the horse ofc   :(

Bolloxed off my titties I'd usually troll u but in all seriousness glglgl xx

thanks again very kind crowd!

tommorow there is a load of racing but there is one which i feel is overpriced already (and another but we might get even bigger in the morning)

14:45 Musselburgh is a decent little conditions race

the way i see this is captain dunne and bear behind are real speedballs and will set this up for something my fancy is MISTER MANANNAN a very strong traveller who won on re appearance two years ago and arguably ran a career best on re appearance last season in dubai. For some reason hasnt been to dubai this year so this is first start which is normally the best isnt as good as captain dunne or hamish mcgongall (likely deserved fav who loves it here) on official figuresbut races arent won on paper otherwise it would be easy. The final factor that makes mm a bet for me is that dandy nicholls has started in very good form were as tim easterby (trainer of two likely favs) hasnt.

2pts win MISTER MANANNAN 11-1 BET365 BOG 2.45 MUSSELBURGH



 

Thanks and gl us :)

On

Nabbed a little 11/1, could do with this to get me out of my Masters' debacle.

second bet for saturday be quick if your folllowing dont see this being 4-1 for to long

3.55 carlisle 2pts win ISLA PEARL FISHER 4-1 BET365 BOG

the rivals


you know yourself won't stay and will hate ground, harry flashman only wins left-handed.  morgan bee has a chance but not sure he wants it that quick, vamizi looks to need a bog over this trip and ammunition the trainer couldnt train arazi to win a  race at present..

isal has ideal conditions, in form, well handicapped and still possibly improving.


i would see this race looking more like 5-2 joint favs isla pearl with vamizi come the off.

shocking start never was going at any stage

3.15 kempton 1pt win FIRST AVENUE 25-1 BETFAIR

Looked a stayer of potential when winning on his penultimate start over C&D, showing a good turn of foot that may allow him to cause trouble for these griding rivals. Disappointed next time but happy to forgive that as was over shorter at lingfield in a race run in a crawl. Freshened up since, I think he can outrun his 25/1 odds.

i backed this earlier.

still cant quite believe isla fisher didnt win

anyway last bet for today

5.35 MUSSELBURGH HELLBENDER 1PT WIN 16-1 GENERAL BOG

the yard had a debut winner last week (very very rare) , they had a 50-1 shot run well earlier here and this horse is now very well handicapped ran fine on a few starts for the yard last season until the last shocking effort in headgear (discarded here) this is a weak race and the horse seems a little bit to big

On for a cheeky tenner.

On

On to get me out of numerous holes I have dug myself.

<3 Milligan

Lolballs.

<3 horseplayer :D

Heard the words hellbender and back marker mentioned several times.

Keeping the faith buddy. Only having a dig ;)

pretty awful day tbh

already found three plays for tommorow but in current form cutting back stakes a little

3.40 TOWCESTER GIANT O MURCHU 11- BET365 BOG 2PTS WIN

as with many improved for going to lawney hill last year and won easily over c + d on similar ground went a long way up the handicap after that, then ran at ascot in a better race and didnt act on the track (imo) then ran on very soft ground.. had a nice break since and has a good chance albeit this is a good race with strength in depth....


3.50 MUSSELBURGH PITTODRIE STAR 12-1 BET365 BOG 1PT WIN

good race as always the varian fav looks a bit short to me and o meara can hopefully improve the bet like so many others....


4.20 MUSSELBURGH KNOW OVERSTREET 10-1 BET365 1PT WIN

Looked a very slow miler before going hurdling (rare for yard) appears to have improved for the stamina test rather than the hurdles and if so 60 is a fair mark in this weak race

have a severe case of man flu so just very quickly a couple i have already backed for tommorow

5.20 yarmouth BEAT OF THE BLUES 20-1 GENERAL 2PTS WIN

This horse is at least double the price i expected, it is not a bad little race but a lot of the market leaders just dont win races, this one caught my eye on re appearance at doncaster when blocked in running and then given an easy time when chance had gone, you can not rely on it to much but the claiming form with junoob looks a lot stronger now than it did then

3.45 redcar MEMORY CLOTH 1PT WIN LADBROKES 16-1 BOG

a real tough race, pin landed on this one as trainer had four entries at 5 day stage 3 of which look well handicapped, this is an ex french horse who came to this country of a mark of 95 which was probably unrealistic now down to a mid 80's mark and having shown promise on one of the runs i think its worth a chance to show its colours at the prices.

thanks

Sigh, Non runner

still feel like death warmed up

one today didnt run (almost like a winner) and the other was backed from 20-1 to 5-1 last night and then drifted to nearly 20-1 before the off, didnt run very well tbh maybe the race was to hot nonetheless one i think will win a race or two over the season

tuesday

4.45 YARMOUTH 1PT WIN LADBROKES 9-1 ESCAPE TO GLORY

strange horse in that it doesnt seem to need headgear but the trainer persists with it, came back at wolver last time was well backed all day and set off like a scalded cat in the first time visor. Sounds strange but i would much rather have george baker on a free goer like this than paul hanagan. A mark of 79 may still be lenient enough.

5.15 YARMOUTH 1PT WIN DANZOE 9-1 BET365 BOG

this is a lovely low level sprinter for a lovely honest small local trainer. Positives are runs well fresh, interesting jockey booking, yard always seem 5lbs better here than elsewere and horse is now a 1lb lower than when winning here 9 months ago, thats enough in a race like this.

4.35 SOUTHWELL 1PT WIN BLACKMORE 8-1 LADBROKES

This is a cracking 2 miler for the track, the favourites all have positives but ladbrokes are way out of line with there 8-1 here. Horse has ran here 3 times with 1 win, the formlines are strong with storm hawk who is about as good as it gets around here for stayers and i see no reason why the horse shouldnt at least go close.

thanks

Yuk! that you had that one for a bit, a lot better than the market drift suggested!

Missed the first 2 but I'm on Danzoe gl us!!

Last

still feel like death warmed up not helped by today

one nearly won, one ran ok without looking like winning and the other one would not have won if it started 10 minutes before.

wednesday

3.50 lingfield 1pt win BOLD RING 7-1 BET365 BOG consistent type is now back down to last winning mark and has ideal conditions here

5.30 kempton 2pts win ADDIKT 4-1 BET365 BOG an awful race but a decent bet, horse has been out of form whilst the stable has been. Stable now back in form and horse is now back down to a very good mark one of only a few in here that have course form and 4-1 is a point to big to me.

8.30 Kempton 1pt win ATWAAB 10-1 BET365 BOG low draw which is ideal in these low grade sprints here ran perfectly well last time and is fairly handicapped

gd lk all

Wednesday Lingfield 15.20 Byrd in Hand

Had a healthy e/w, took 7s best odds guaranteed.

trixie

11 Apr 2012 - 3:50 Lingfield - Win
Qeethaara @ 5/2

11 Apr 2012 - 1:50 Lingfield - Win
Waabel @ 7/4

11 Apr 2012 - 4:50 Lingfield - Win
Lionrock @ 5/2

Stake : £5.00 (£1.25 x 4)
Estimated Returns : £81.48

further bet to follow as well (possibly)

8.50 dundalk INDIAN SCOUT 13-2 CORALS 2PTS WIN

no idea why this horse is so big with corals, 2-2 since joining this yard the handicapper has been very very fair with the handicap mark and should run its race again tonight

last bet for today (probably!)

4.10 nottingham 2pts win GRAND GOLD 8-1 STAN JAMES

had two runs for the trainer in better races and ran with promise on both, now down to a mark of 70 this looks very fair on last years 2 year old form, the trainer finally had another winner last week and had one run well this week as well

Done a win Lucky 15

Byrd in Hand
Bold Ring
Addikt
Atwaab


I'll prob punt on the others too just so I don't miss anything :D

There has been a big move for Mac Tiernan in this one, price long gone

final bet for today

3.30 catterick 1pt win betfair/betdaq 25-1 (average odds) PATAVIUM

not sure why this horse is such a big price tbh, fit from hurdles loves the track ground will be fine highest ever mark but is arguably still improving on the flat

Wow 10s into 5/4

2nd

1st

2nd

:(

I just watched the Lionrock race and it was never in it at all from what I could see

tommorow already nice to have a winner of any kind at present addikit did it well

2.30 aintree GOTTANY O'S 1PTS EWAY 40-1 (3 FIRMS AT PRESENT) i would like 2pts eway but the three firms involved are very very hard to get anything on with

I loved this game horse on the flat a rare example of a channon horse pretty much always running its race, really impressed on hurdling debut then ran a shocker at hexham last time (as a lot of mccains tend to do for some reason) gets the first time tongue tie.

I am not convinced by the cheltenham form at all so have looked for something else.

4.15 aintree FREE WORLD 1PT WIN 14-1 GENERAL BOG

Horse is  a bit of a rogue but having rewatched the cheltenham run this horse was cantering when it fell 4 out , this track should suit and is exceptionally handicapped unlike most of these.

5.25 aintree REINDEER DIPPIN 18-1 GENERAL 1PT WIN BOG

Solid horse still fairly treated ran well at cheltenham and will be suited by the slightly softer ground here

considering the winner of ATHWAABS last race has hacked up tonight at kempton already i have no idea why its drifting to nearly 30-1 on betfair so have added another 1pt win at average odds 22-1

the irish runner is beaten a short head in a photo by a 20-1 shot

not good

8.25 wolverhampton thursday ALL RIGHT NOW 1PT WIN 14-1 GENERAL BOG

horse possibly needs shorter but has plenty of ability and has dropped a few lbs since the last run were it stayed on quite well late, this is a tough race i just make this about a 10-1 shot


today was very frustrating indeed but once again i beat the prices on every horse apart from athwaab (very strange ride had best draw missed break e.t.c obviously there was a reason it drifted i wasnt aware of) and addikit won nicely at under half the price taken. Grand Gold ran really well and bold ring drifted badly and partook in completely new tactics (tried to make all) for for first time in career.

On Gottany O's hopefully that will setup a freeroll for the festival!!

Friend of mine is good m8s with Pipe's son and had given me Free World so I'm on that anyway. He said the same as you about the Cheltenham race and that it loves quicker ground.

I'm on Star of Angels in the 1725, he said that the 3m is the race that they wanted him in at Cheltenham and hopefully they have him spot on for this one too.

Horseplayer responsible for gottany o's downfall.

late one for tonight

8.55 wolverhampton 1pts eway FORTY PROOF 8-1 GENERAL

much bigger price than i expected, goes for an inform yard is a quirky type but gets all the headgear back on tonight made this more a 11-2 shot in here


couple for tommorow

3.30 LEICESTER 2PTS WIN GOURAY GIRL 12-1 BET365 BOG

Laughable bet365 priced up global village at 8-1 earlier (now 3-1 which looks about right) , the selection has left walter swinburn (at least 4 horses have left him and either improved or got back to form) candy is a decent trainer and arguably this horse has a good chance anyway, slight concern that candy doesnt always start the season quickly but at 12-1 ill take a risk...


 

another day of most horses being well backed but running very poorly, it was very very sad to see gottany o's die girgy i appreciate you are just trying to be funny but comments like that are just stupid.


On a smaller scale it was also pretty galling to see bute street advised last week hack up at 10-1 but thats the game

Friday

3.40 aintree MINELLA THEATRE 66-1 1PT WIN STAN JAMES , make no mistake this horse has been a rare dissapointment since joining lawney hill, however looks like just the type that COULD love these fences on ability alone could get involved here


4.50 aintree SAPHIR RIVER 25-1 GENERAL 1PT WIN as i have mentioned a good few times now scudamore yard were bang out of form until the last two weeks and they are now right back in form. This horse has a tall reputation and form in france feel at first at cheltenham but the renewed stable form and the jockey booking of carberry scream they mean business here

I said to my dad when I saw it stumble that I hoped it was nothing serious, I couldn't work out what had happened actually as it looked to be travelling well he said :(

Don't suppose you caught the Folkstone action yesterday? 2.45 Light Burst travelling ominously well but hated the mud, based on now having formlines of 4404 might still get a price next time out despite being Godolphin.  Was backed from 10 to 7s but that is probably just Godolphin factor at a small course as opposed to "in the know" money.

I took it out the race, as a man who seems to watch closely, wondering if you picked up the same?

talk about frustating again today doesnt even begin to describe it

5.50 wolverhampton EMMA JEAN 1PT WIN 12-1 GENERAL

Solid low grade horse who has improved slightly since joining this yard i made this a 6-1 shot last night so is a price play

emma ran fine drifted to 20-1 on betfair before the off traded under 2-1 just wasnt good enough

i like the look of a race at dundalk later and will post before the off there

Saturday

4PTS WIN 5.05 AINTREE CONSTANT CONTACT 10-1 BET365 BOG

This horse is my strongest bet so far this year, this horse had loads of ability on the flat and then ran two "interesting" races for mccain , this all changed last time when not only did the horse win more interestingly the jockey kept pushing the horse out from 3 out even when it was obvious the horse was hacking up. This was purely to obtain a high enough rating to run in a race like this and is not something you see to often. Well it only just worked as the handicapper only rated the horse at 128 which just made the cut here (thankfully) when you consider the horse was a solid 90 rated animal on the flat this mark really really looks workable here. I will be very dissapointed if the horse doesnt win tbh, my only concern was the ground turning soft-heavy this looks unlikely now.

Love the confidence. Having a chunk on now, if it wins large drink for you

Took the 10s with Bet365. Brand new account, still got halved

They have gone 8s, still 10/1 with Paddys and Sky

Good luck us one time etc.

right couple for the 8.45 dundalk

1pts eway XSQUARED 9-1 GENERAL AND 1pts eway NOTNAMEDYET 16-1 GENERAL both bog

this is a poor poor race, the favourite is solid but not ahead of its mark. Xsquared goes for a good yard a jockey who has just had a first winner for a while and two best career runs have been here in slightly tougher races (traded odds on both times) notnamedyet looks fairly handicapped on its first two maiden runs and the third can be ignored because it was on heavy ground ( i hope) the stable had a welcome winner on wednesday night here and anything unexposed shouldnt be 16-1 in here

Go on then on these two as well :)

Got given Cookie Crumble for this by an irish lad on our forum, it had already been backed in from 33s to 6s and then got pulled....

saturday

3pts win FLORIO VINCITORE 3.55 newcastle 4-1 bet365 bog

put this up last time on reflection ran a cracker over to short a trip, this yard will improve this horse and i expect it to start tommorow

one more i like but will wait till the morning for more priced up

gd lk all

few more for today

5.15 lingfield 1pt win THE HAPPY HAMMER 15-2 HILLS BOG

Loves lingfield gets baker on board which is always a plus around here and looks slightly overpriced

6.15 1pt win JUST TIMMY MARCUS 11-1 SKYBET NOT BOG

I have thought for a while this horse is worth a go back down at this trip and it finally has another go here in a competitive race

1.45 aintree 1.5pts eway ALLAND ISLANDS 9-1 GENERAL

sneaky eway this one but when you consider the horse won a decent race when the stable was bang out of  form must go close today with stable now back alive.


fancy another at newcastle but waiting for the ground

The new one running today.

2/10 newcastle king kurt 2pts win 20-1 general

no time for reasoning just dont like the fav who has all weather form only and an awful draw

Did you bet it Girgles?

Obv not.

Horseplayer, wha is your curent p/l?

Yea had £25ew on it xx

WAL

shocking stuff again yesterday but yet again beat the price on most occasions doesnt pay the bills though

fancy a few today for my sins

3.15 FFOS LAS 2PT WIN BATHWICK BRAVE 10-1 BET365 BOG

horse has looked a rogue over hurdles but is bred to be a chaser and need a trip, gets both today and although it is a competitive race the vast majority of the field either have plenty of quirks, issues or are badly handicapped.

4.25 FFOS LAS 2PT WIN SPEED MASTER 11-4 TOTESPORT BOG

A race were plenty have questions to answer this apart from this one, unexposed still ran very well last time in a better race, whilst some of the field are well handicapped on there best they are going to have to improve massively to get close to the fav today.

3.35 M RASEN MONKEY MILAN 9-2 GENERAL 2PT WIN

a race that isnt as strong as the numbers suggest.... the favourite is progressive and probably has another one or two wins for this stable yet

4.4 MARKET RASEN 1PT WIN THE MAGIC BISHOP 11-2 GENERAL

A good race with loads of pace in prospect , the bet is a hold up type who is improving i dont think the horse is better than the two favs but the race should be run to suit.

Good luck, I like this thread and have stuck these four horses in an each way lucky 15

5.05 LEOPARDSTOWN

1PT WIN BETFAIR SP BON ACCORD

travelled very very well last time 60-1 just seems far to big to me

final for the week

5.35 leopardstown DISCOVERY BAY 23-1 BETFAIR 1PT WIN

very fairly handicapped been running fine for new yard on all weather and has plenty of solid turf form in the uk, inexperienced jockey a worry but its 20-1

some more today time is short so no reasoning i am afraid

3.15 wolverhampton cotton king 1pt win 15-2 general

4.30 windsor benandonner 1pt win 25-1 general

5.30 windsor hurricane hymbook 1pt win 25-1 general


thanks again

becoming a bit of a pattern

all three yesterday shortened to a degree cotton king traded 1.6-1 in running, benn started 16-1 from 33-1 and ran ok and the musson horse probably wasnt fit/off.


just the one in all probability today in the fantastic class 6 event at southwell

4.40 3pts win SHARP SOVEREIGN

This horse is basically a grinder , a very slow horse but a very consistent one which is always a bonus in this grade. The horse has a fine record when dropping into class 6 grade , the trainer isnt one i try and side with to often mainly because he isnt very good however for this stable they are in fair form of late. The horse has never faced on fibresand before which is always a question mark, however the breeding suggests it could be a benefit rather than a hindarance.

On Sharp Sovereign ftw good luck us. ;)

got 5-1 with laddies
bet £15

an awful run no excuses just was not good enough and appeared to hate the surface

going to have to lower the staking now after this poor run, do i feel badly out of form? not really tbh as i keep saying the horses are generally shortening in price and mostly running decent races. If i continue to pick the horses at bigger prices than they start at i will be in profit by the end of the year.

WEDNESDAY

CHELTENHAM 2.30 1PT WIN FRONTIER DANCER 20-1 LADBROKES BOG

(Unexposed over fences has untapped potential for this yard over the big ones)

CHELTENHAM 4.20 1PT WIN DUSKY BOB 16-1 BET365 BOG

(has looked to need this trip recently boxing on gamely over shorter, does not look well handicapped but the longer trip could bring out some more improvement.)

thanks for the support

It's a really good thread and you seem to have a great eye for picking stuff that gets backed to shorter. I guess you could lessen your variance by laying off a lot of your picks, no?

3.20 COCKTAIL CHARLIE BEVERLEY 1PT WIN BETFAIR SP

5.05 BEVERLEY HI THERE 2PTS WIN 9-1 PADDY POWER (lovely trainer switch and showed enough ability last season to get involved here anyway)

Hi mate,

I'm going to Ripon tomorrow so if you could stick your fancies on here I might win something!

Decent prices are welcome.

Cheers

5.5 newmarket 1pt win GATEPOST 14-1 WILLIAM HILL

the class edge in here channons have been running ok today and shouldnt be this big

This might be a good sign or a bad one mate but Gatepost was the only bet I have had today.

gl us

8.20 dundalk 1pt win lupa montana betfair starting price

8.35 kempton

2pts win LA CONFESSION 12-1 GENERAL

love the trainer switch love the step up in trip

I have a question, it's not betting related but it's horsey so thought I'd post it here.

Do trainers ever own racehorses and if not, why not?  I was thinking that it seems strange that the real person doing the work is the trainer and all the owner does is supplies the horse and pays money.  I'd hazzard a guess that trainers often put owners in touch new horses too so why don't they own and train their own horses?  Is it not allowed?

RIPON

2.10 ANNIE GOGH 11-4 SPORTING BET 4PTS WIN (TRAINER WON THIS 5 OF LAST 6 YEARS HAD FOUR ENTRIES AT 5 DAY STAGE HIS HORSE IN THIS IS NORMALLY AT LEAST A LISTED LEVEL PERFORMER)

3.20 ABLE MASTER 4-1 GENERAL 2PTS WIN (SELECTED LAST TIME MADE SOME GREAT LATE HEADWAY, THIS IS EASIER SHOULD REALLY WIN THIS)

5.40 ARRYS ORSE 13-2 GENERAL 2PTS (AGAIN PUT UP LAST TIME RETURN TO THIS TRIP WILL SUIT LOOKS BEST HANDICAPPED IN FIELD)



some possible cheltenham later

fancied ripon today but the weather is horrid around there, coming in to work from harrogate this morning is was torrential rain.

3.10 cheltenham 2pts win LADY KARABAYA 7-1 GENERAL

had a good chance anyway but the softer ground is ideal

arrys fell broken leg while last i think

oh dear

6.05 wolver (off 5 mins late) 1pt eway cape of storms 22-1 general

9.05 wolver forever hope 1pt eway 11-1

right a few for tommorow already

5.00 bath destiny of dreams 7-1 bet365 2pt win (looks at least 2 pts to big here) proven track form which is massive here

6.30 bath astrophysical jet 8-1 boylesports 2pt win (this wont go of bigger than 4-1 imo) last season was a write off but even so being beaten 6 lengths by deacon blues reads well in this, can go well fresh and has a massive class edge here

8.00 bath brandywell boy 25-1 general 1pt win has some good form here is now well handicapped again and can go well fresh stable form a worry but jockey booking encouraging

last three for tommorow

5.25 newbury 2pts win RASHEED 5-1 PADDY POWER BOG

7.30 bath 2pts win SALONTYRE 8-1 BET365

2.50 AYR 2PTS WIN laterly 11-2 boylesports

5.50 wexford 1pt win colberay betfair sp

nice trainer switch in an awful race

You're running so bad mate, vul Salentyre, appreciate non runners impacted proce but another good spot and just one too good.  Stick with it

Saturday

3.15 pravda street 12-1 stan james 1pt win thirsk

6.30 notts 8-1 bet365 steel ctiy boy 1pt win

7.00 notts 20-1 bet365 eightfold 1pt win

8.45 wolverhampton 8-1 bet365 1pt win

3.45 newbury betfair starting price 1pt win MOnt Ras


had a bad few weeks again in personal life and it is showing in my punting this thread will be back when sorted

thanks for support

Take care lad. Fancy anything at Ayr? I'm backing Irokudo Road, wins IF it stays.

Darrow worth a bet in the next at kempton.

10/1 or better.

Played up a bit on the way to the start.

Not quite so confident now.

Argh.

Traded at 1.25 in running, looked all over the winner.

Didn't quite get home.

Back down to 7f, will win next time.

8.55 Hamilton.

Northern Bolt at 7/2 or better.

The horse I made the main danger, Taladavil, has just been taken out.

Although there will be a rule 4, I fancy this even more now.

On.

GL Us.

On

:( #wotaloadofrubbish

Great

Wasn't paying attention at the start did he get caught on the way out or something?

Just totally missed the break, left by about 6 lengths.

The winner pissed up though, doubt we would have beaten her.

Ah well on to the next!

Friend if mine sent me this tip last might and price seems to be same this morning.

Horse names "top offer" runs at 8.25.

Guy who tips it is extremely well known in the horse betting world and has 4 figures invested.

Should romp home apparently. Price is around 2.85

on..gl

On @ 3.3 on betfair. gl us and ty

Save this till we romp home!

Hapy with the market slightly drifting as no-one has shortened much the other way. Still pretty happy with this.

On. Good luck boys!

drifted all day

would not bother me from this yard

best of luck really tough race this

They never put him in the race

was keen early and never settled really

All i can do is apologise. Personally im gutted, but also gutted for those who got on

ul guys, keep the info coming, thats all the backers can ask for...info. If they get on or not its up to them.

my only bet of the day is AD VALUE in the next at newcastle

the fav has been winning fairly easily but the form is not upto much, ad value drops in class and this is so much weaker than the last race it ran in.

Yeah - to support Killersbey we had the same info last night, done proverbal sack - he didnt put it in the race and it sweated up before.  Apparently nothing can work with it at home, was a tough race but based on what we were told didn't think it would get beat either.  massive sigh

I did a £1.66 lucky 15 on bet victor with £25 promo cash got two winners and it's been settled as a loser is that right?

If the 2 winners are settled as losers then no.

If you return less than £25 on the 2 singles and the double then probably as you don't get the stake (promo cash) back. You must have been doing it on short priced favourites in that case though which is a muggy thing to do with promo cash/free bets usually.

Cheers rimmel

What are people thinking about the oaks tomorrow?

I'm interested in Shirocco Star @ 16s and Colima @ 18s but not strongly.

Shirocco travelled like easily the best horse in her race last time out over 2 furlongs less but there just wasn't enough time to get past and lost by a nose. The extra 2 furlongs should really suit and pedigree suggests she will definitely stay.

There a lot of potentially top horses in the line up tho.

Fucks sake Shirocco, just go past one time.

unlucky horn great shout mate

vow not even placing has cost me a right few quid today

enthiaa is big enough in the 6.20 at haydock at 11-1 on a fair mark, unexposed, lightly-raced, improving

surprise surprise another second

i will post it here as i believe a, the horse has a better chance than 33-1 and im not sure will be above 20-1 by race time

FITZ FLYER in the dash tommorow 33-1 coral

Do like Partner in the big Muss sprint tomorrow. Better than ever last time after coming over from Ireland and this place is perfect for hold-up sprinters, albeit you need a bit of luck. Easy 5f on slow ground what he wants.

Masked Marvel is no 10/1 shot in the Jubilee Coranation Cup at 2.40pm - will prefer the going today than its reappearance on Good to Soft, stable and jockey quietky confident and whilst St Nicholas Abbey is obviosuly a very nice horse I wouldn't be surprised to see Masked Marvel run it very close.  I have backed win as conditions sort of preclude ew - however may have a small SFC as well with Nicholas Abbey to beat it.

Got a phone call for Roy's Legacy 5.30 Chester, not had any from this scource before but had tipped up a 12/1 winner earlier in the week, caution advised.

23 on Betfair if anyone's interested

On the basis that I am now clear on my horse limitations, may I ask for some guidance on VALAIS GIRL at Newmarket in the 2.15, please?

My untrained eye suggests the trainer is hot, the horse is a late developer and that it should do well from being drawn on the far rail.

Have 46 on betfair.

just saw this so obv aftertiming from me -

The reason this horse (which did run well) was so long in price, was that it would be receiving a lot of weight from many of its rivals if this was a handicap eg 23lbs from no 17.  To win it would have to improve a huge amount (which it prob did) wiith none of its rivals improving.  The trainer would be running the horse as the prize money was huge with even 6th place getting £3k.

Thank you.