Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

Some of the analysis just strikes me at clutching at straws- I prefer the draw no bet as a way of backing Wigan if that's what I was doing. Really don't like the +1.5 and will accommodate anyone who wants to bet it

[Dubai]

Egg on my face at 10pm tomoro night

Remember laying Ace an inflated price on Newcastle to prove a point, obviously luckiest win in history proceeded

[tikay]

Update, 7.00am, Monday April 16th

Investments

Fraser, Blackburn DNB, (lost, £40)

DoubleUp, Westwood, Masters, (£20, WON (placed), returned £60)

horseplayer, SL opening p'ship, (£30, WON, returned £56)

horseplayer, Masters Debut, Garrigus (£10 @ 16/1, BS, lost)

hummuspie, Swindon, Swindon, (WON, £50 @ 17/20, returned £92.50)

Dazzler, Bolton, (£25 @ 7/4, Bet365, lost)

Eso Kral, Walsall, (£25 @ Evens, BS, WON, returned £50)

Matt50, Mumbai Indians, IPL, (£25 @ 9/2, BS, unsettled)

Silo, Chelsea, CL, (£25 @ 1.75, Betfair, WON, returned £43.50)

Bobby, Cantlay, (£3 EW, LOST) (converted to £3 EW from $5 EW)

Bobby, Cantlay, £5 @ 960, Betfair, lost)  

ACE2M, Rose, (£25 @ 7/2, BetVictor, lost)

Fraser, Hull, (£50 @ 13/10, BetVictor, lost)

Tighty, LAY SL-Eng Draw (£49 to win £25, Betfair, WON, returned £74)

Henrik, 72 hole MB Carbera etc, (£25, lost)

tikay, 18 hole MB, Carbera (lost)

Fraser, Wigan, DNB (£10, lost)

Fraser, Norwich v Everton DNB (£25, Draw, returned £25)

Jennymar, Over 2.5 goals, Coventry (£25 @ 4/5, WON, returned £45)

ACE2M, Westwood Top 5 (£25, returned £52.88)

Horneris, Stoke, (lost, £40)

RickBFA, Wycombe, (£40, lost)

hector62, Catalan Dragons (£50 @ 11/10, WON, returned £105)

sparrow, Malaga, (£50, BetFred, lost)

Dubai, Barney Ave, (£100 @ 8/11, BetVictor, WON, returned £173) - see note to follow in "Summary"

Camel, Swansea, (£100 @ 21/20, Blue Square, WON, returned £205)

Horneris, Burnley, (£60 @ 21/20, BetVictor, lost)

Teacake, Collingwood Thugs, (£50 @ 21/20, BetVictor, WE GOT BATTERED)

Dazzler, Chelsea DNB, (£50 @21/20, Wm Hill, WON, returned £102.50)

Camel, Swansea press (£100 @ 21/20, Blue Square, WON, returned £205)

MahagonyVic, Wishful, (£25 EW, placed, returned £87.50)

hector62, Rugby Draw (£10, lost)

ant, West Brom, (£25, WON, returned £56.25)

bobby1, PSG, (£100, lost)

kpnuts, Mayo, (£25, lost)

TOTAL Invested (April) = £1,370
________________________________

Returns

horseplayer, SL openers, £56

hummuspie, Swindon, £92.50

Silo, Chelsea, £43.50

Tighty, SL-England, £74

Fraser, Norwich, DNB, £25

Jennymar, Cov v Posh Goals, £45

Eso Kral, Walsall, £50

DoubleUp, Westwood, £60

ACE2M, Westwood Top 5, £52.88

hector62, Catalan Dragons, £105

Dubai, Darts, £173

MahagonyVic, Wishful, £87.50

ant, WBA, £56.25

Camel, Swansea, £205

Camel, Swansea, £205

Dazler, Chelsea, £102.50

Total returns £1,433.13

_________________________________


Profit/Loss April

£1,370 - £1,433 = £63.00 profit, including £35 unsettled.

Unsettled bets carried forward - Anderson, Barnet (x2),£150, all of which has been accounted for in prev months accounts.

Unsettled bets April, Mumbai IPL, (1 bet, £25)

[tikay]

Daily Summary

Mixed day.

The Chelsea bet - 21/20 DNB! - romped home, but the beautifully reasoned PSG affair went wrong in the dying minutes in almost comical fashion. No regrets with it, the bet repped excellent value.

We had a fun bet on Gaelic Football - I think it was Gaelic Football - when he had £25 on a 100/30 shot against the 4/11 hotpots, & we so nearly got there. The beauty of kpnuts maiden thread bet was that Dazzler taught us all - well not all - about the game, the scoring, this & that, & he wrote so well in doing so that it was a pleasure to lose the £25. Almost. As Mere noted, it was tremendous value, & fun, & I hope people keep posting these quirky ones. In the last 48 hours, we have punted stuff in England, France, Australia, & Ireland! Sports have included Aussie Rules, Football, & Rugby Union.

I mix the stakes up, anything from a tenner to £200, depending on the strength of the recommend, & gut feel. (Gut feel = pure guesswork). Maybe the Elders will say that is wrong, but I want to keep it fun, & a lot of the quirky ones could not be punted if I had to stick on £100. I don't need to win, but I'd rather not lose, a recipe which would not suit pro punters of course. Keep them coming, I say, I don't want people holding back because I might do £100, but if others want to have a "flat stake suits all" for themselves thats fine.

Coming up?

Chompy gently hinted at Southampton away to his beloved Posh @ 5/6 - tomorrow I think - & Dazzler has put up one of his favoured minnows v majors, in Wigan away to Arsenal tonight, on which both Dubai & bobby have commented "less than positively". Dazzler, as always, has made his case well though, be it right or wromg. Fo sho, if Wigan get a result, the thread will be interesting tomorrow. I'll decide on both bets later today.

No Barnet related action that I am aware of until Friday, when Barnet head across the A127 to Southend, who are in the play-off zone. The three teams in contention have all played the same amount of games, but Barnet have the worst GD. A Friday night Barnet defeat would set the weekend up well, if only to wait & see if either Macclesfield or Hereford can nick a win on Saturday.  Both have relatively "easy" games, Macclesfield away to Bradford, & Hereford home to lowly Northampton. The bet has plenty of mileage yet, but this weekend is crucial, as we are running out of games.

[tikay]

Southampton (away to Peterborough, tomorrow) are still available @ 5/6 in three spots, see.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/peterborough-v-southampton/winner

[tikay]

Wigan tonight, @ Arsenal?

DNB is here.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-wigan/draw-no-bet

Asian Handicap is here.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-wigan/draw-no-bet

[Doobs]

Daily Summary

No Barnet related action that I am aware of until Friday, when Barnet head across the A127 to Southend, who are in the play-off zone. The three teams in contention have all played the same amount of games, but Barnet have the worst GD. A Friday night Barnet defeat would set the weekend up well, if only to wait & see if either Macclesfield or Hereford can nick a win on Saturday.  Both have relatively "easy" games, Macclesfield away to Bradford, & Hereford home to lowly Northampton. The bet has plenty of mileage yet, but this weekend is crucial, as we are running out of games.

I don't think away against Bradford is an easy game.  They are clearly the best team down near the bottom.  Home and away makes a big difference, and this is away.  If you want to look positively, Bradford's home form isn't as strong as it could be, they have just moved into a "safe" position so could take their foot off the gas (or they could relax and play a lot better, dunno), and Macc have already beat them this season.

The Hereford game seems a much more likely win to me.

[tikay]

Daily Summary

No Barnet related action that I am aware of until Friday, when Barnet head across the A127 to Southend, who are in the play-off zone. The three teams in contention have all played the same amount of games, but Barnet have the worst GD. A Friday night Barnet defeat would set the weekend up well, if only to wait & see if either Macclesfield or Hereford can nick a win on Saturday.  Both have relatively "easy" games, Macclesfield away to Bradford, & Hereford home to lowly Northampton. The bet has plenty of mileage yet, but this weekend is crucial, as we are running out of games.

I don't think away against Bradford is an easy game.  They are clearly the best team down near the bottom.  Home and away makes a big difference, and this is away.  If you want to look positively, Bradford's home form isn't as strong as it could be, they have just moved into a "safe" position so could take their foot off the gas (or they could relax and play a lot better, dunno), and Macc have already beat them this season.

The Hereford game seems a much more likely win to me.

True, "easy" rather than easy! There are deffo worse tems - by which I mean I mean better teams - they could be playing. Agree, though, a big ask, but we just need Macc or Hereford to nick an extra win, & then we all "hold".

[Graham C]

Think arsenal will smash Wigan tonight, really can't see the logic in opposing them

[tikay]

Think arsenal will smash Wigan tonight, really can't see the logic in opposing them

Yup, they probably will - but there is always a price at which the underdog is value, & that's the thing really. Whether this is "value" is debatable, of course. There have been bigger upsets, & Wigan have featured in a few.   

[Graham C]

I do agree but I'd rather not bet against what I think will happen just because the price might be right.  Arsenal are in great form, especially at home and Wigan aren't great on the road, they're not great full stop.  I think I'd need huge odds to tempt me.   Ace had it about right in that bards game when their opposition were about 25/1, that'd do it for me. I'd be happier backing arsenal at 1.29 than Wigan
 
Just my opinion anyway. I'm probably bottom of the chain when it comes to gambling skills so if others think its a bit of value then good luck (not too much though )

[tikay]

I do agree but I'd rather not bet against what I think will happen just because the price might be right.  Arsenal are in great form, especially at home and Wigan aren't great on the road, they're not great full stop.  I think I'd need huge odds to tempt me.   Ace had it about right in that bards game when their opposition were about 25/1, that'd do it for me. I'd be happier backing arsenal at 1.29 than Wigan
 
Just my opinion anyway. I'm probably bottom of the chain when it comes to gambling skills so if others think its a bit of value then good luck (not too much though )

It's good debate, Graham, but that's the point - if the price is right it IS value. The "if" is the imponderable, of course.

I'm not saying it is right, & wise judges have said it is not, but it seems to me that no matter how big an underdog is in ANY game, there must always be a price at which it reps "value". Arsenal would thrash Wigan, on current Emirates form, x times in 10. If we can find better odds than x in 10, it's value.

Assume it is 9 times in 10. If the price were 16/1, it would be a bet, yes? But we'd have to punt it each time to realise the equity, & we might go skint by then..... 

[Graham C]

Fair enough, I can accept that.  Just need to find that X value.

FWIW, we're 12-2 up on Wigan with 2 draws.   Both losses happened at Wigan.  An Arsenal win puts us 8 points ahead of Spurs.  Wigan will be more confident after turning over Man U last week.  As both teams will be confident, and with a  12-2-2 history perhaps the 12/1 is probably about right?  Their last win was in 2010, perhaps it's time.

It's the going sking part I'm not keen on.

[tikay]

Fair enough, I can accept that.  Just need to find that X value.

FWIW, we're 12-2 up on Wigan with 2 draws.   Both losses happened at Wigan.  An Arsenal win puts us 8 points ahead of Spurs.  Wigan will be more confident after turning over Man U last week.  As both teams will be confident, and with a  12-2-2 history perhaps the 12/1 is probably about right?  Their last win was in 2010, perhaps it's time.

It's the going sking part I'm not keen on.

Yup, if only we could properly judge "x".

The "outright win" odds, tonight, are 11/1 I believe.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-wigan/winner

Much more than that and it would deffo be worth a fun tickle, & I rather enjoy fun tickles.

If they catch Arsenal on one of their "on" nights though, Wigan could get totally thrashed. Almost ike ChipRich's 3-7 jobbie.

[WarBwastard]

I do agree but I'd rather not bet against what I think will happen just because the price might be right.  Arsenal are in great form, especially at home and Wigan aren't great on the road, they're not great full stop.  I think I'd need huge odds to tempt me.   Ace had it about right in that bards game when their opposition were about 25/1, that'd do it for me. I'd be happier backing arsenal at 1.29 than Wigan
 
Just my opinion anyway. I'm probably bottom of the chain when it comes to gambling skills so if others think its a bit of value then good luck (not too much though )

It's good debate, Graham, but that's the point - if the price is right it IS value. The "if" is the imponderable, of course.

I'm not saying it is right, & wise judges have said it is not, but it seems to me that no matter how big an underdog is in ANY game, there must always be a price at which it reps "value". Arsenal would thrash Wigan, on current Emirates form, x times in 10. If we can find better odds than x in 10, it's value.

Assume it is 9 times in 10. If the price were 16/1, it would be a bet, yes? But we'd have to punt it each time to realise the equity, & we might go skint by then..... 

Yes there's always going to be a "price", but only if you're able to bet it each and every time it comes around no?  Theoretically with Arsenal v Wigan you may have to wait nine or ten years for the "ONE" match where we do get paid off.  With something like the mighty Arsenal playing Wigan and the size of our bank roll do we really have the funds to keep taking the value price until our ship comes in?  

Arsenal for the record have not lost to Wigan at home since they came into the Premier League in 2005 (eight games including a couple of Carling Cup games).  Arsenal also haven't lost a home Monday night game in that same period.

This is my favourite thread on blonde, but I think there's too much focus on finding the value price and doing things properly and not enough "banzai" I feel it in my guts old school gambling.  It's supposed to be fun. FUN! It's too much like being at school sometimes with all this maths and stuff I don't understand. Eeking out the teeny tiniest bit of value is great if you've got £10k on and bills to pay and each pt is worth another £400 to you, but if you've got £10 on and it's only worth an extra 40p it's hardly worth the effort.

Arsenal ought to win fairly comfortably tonight. They're 9/10 in their last Premier League games. Robin van Persie has ended his mini draught and has scored 45 from 50 games. Theo has scored in three of the last four. Arsenal are averaging nearly 3.5 goals per home game since losing to Man Yoo in late January.  With this in mind I'd like to propose £40 Arsenal -2 goals @ 7/4 on the handicaps.  

As Barry Norman used to say, and why not?