Wimbledon with Horneris

[Horneris]

I've spent some time studying the draw and had some very small bets on a variety of things.

This year tho my focus will be very much on trading individual matches.

Mens Outright

I've decided that the most likely winner is Novak Djokovic. This is the one title he has always said he dreams about winning and I think he has a great chance this year. He has had an amazing year beating Nadal 4 times in a row and winning 40 odd matches in a row but just ran out of steam in the French and the burden of his run started to get to him. Hes had some time off and has been over here on the practice courts and relaxing in his rented house with his girlfriend for weeks. I think he is ready. His draw is a walk in the park to the semis. Sadly his current price doesn't appeal hugely @ 7/2 with his Wimbledon and overall grass court record in comparison to the other 3 members of the big 4. I think he can do it but think only 9/2 would represent value. If he drifts further out to this price on betfair (currently 5.1) I will have to get involved.

The 2 I am going to try and get deepish & trade are Tomas Berdych (again!) & Richard Gasquet.
Berdych has not had a good year to say the least but I'm hoping a return to the scene of his greatest triumph 12 months ago can re-vitalise him and his draw is really good to the quarters. 90s is too big. He is likely to face Volandri - Benneteau - Chela - Verdasco/Kohlschreiber. Nadal to prove a stumbling block of epic proportions in the quarters but he himself won't find it too easy with likely encounters against Raonic and Del Potro and I've said in this thread already that the great Spaniard doesn't convince me 100% atm.

Gasquet will find it a whole lot harder to make it to the quarters. He has to face Wawrinka in a likely 3rd round tie but Wawrinka had a shocker at Queens losing in straights to James Ward. More worrying though is a 4th round encounter against none other than Andy Murray. This is the game i'm expecting my trade to boil down to. And obviously Murray will be a big favourite. Gasquet is good on grass though and has always had so much talent and began to show his best at the Monte Carlo Masters this year and both times he has faced Murray on grass it has gone to 5 sets. Its unlikely but if he is to creep past Murray the quarter final of someone like Lopez/Roddick/Karlovic looks easy enough. 233s is a touch of value.

Bets

Tomas Berdych    90           £40.11   £3,569.79
Richard Gasquet   233.89   £20.00   £4,657.70
 
Womens Outright

My knowledge of the womens game is not upto the standard of my knowledge of the mens game.

I do know a bit tho and along with a friend we fancy Andrea Petkovic to go a long way with the draw she has. 60s is far too big to trade with a nice path through to the semis. She is mentally tough unlike so many on the WTA tour and has a few wins on grass.

The new favourite Maria Sharapova ( 5.8 ) has an absolute dream run through to the final! She faces likely match ups against Wozniacki in the quarters and Lisicki/Li/S.Williams/Bartoli in the semis. It really is a great draw and the only person who can stop her is herself. Sadly she often does and she can't really be trusted. Because of this lack of trust I refuse to lump on @ 5.8 and instead will double her up with Djokovic @ 25s ish and include her in a name the finalists bet.

Another player I want to talk about is Serena Williams. I think its so tough to come back from a year off where she had major issues like a possible life threatening illness and make a big impact. She didn't look convincing at Eastbourne and you could forgive her that but I think she could suffer an early defeat and 12/1 is a massive price for a 2nd round defeat in the stage of elimination betting were a likely match up with the promising youngster Bojana Jovanovski awaits. I would make Jovanovski 5/1 here at worst and I would probably back her at that so to get 12s is great. Worst comes to the worst and she loses in the 1st round to Simona Halep, I still wouldn't make Halep 12/1 v this Serena, more like 7/1, 8/1. There is no downside to this punt as surely Serena can't lose in the 1st round to Aravane Rezai who herself lost 6-2 6-1 to Britain's Elena Baltacha last week on grass. I don't think Ironside would lose 6-2 6-1 to Elena Baltacha.

Bets

Andrea Petkovic   59.53   £40.00   £2,341.20
Sharapova/Petkovic Name The Finalists £20 @ 45/1 (Bet365)
Sharapova/Djokovic Wimbledon Winners DBL £40 @ 24/1 (Betfred)
Serena Williams Stage of Elimination 2nd Round £30 @ 12/1 (Bet365)

[Snowball]

4/1 the big 4 to make the semis looks a bit big

Where's 4/1. I've only seen 9/4

Paddys

[Solaris]

Murray, after a few nice draws, has a shocker at Wimbledon.

Cilic 3rd rd, Gasquet 4th, Roddick QF, Nadal SF.

Ljubicic will knock Cilic out in the first round. Ljubo @ 2.28 is an absolute steal.

[Solaris]

Outrights:

Djokovic @ 4 £100

Wozniacki @ 11s  £50
Zvonareva @ 20s £50
Pavlyuchenkova @ 50s £50


Good luck all.

[Waz1892]

Never been the same since Steffi retired.

Good Ole days.

[ChipRich]

on the BH tips

[sledge13]

Good odds to trade in later rounds in the biatches side of things...

Bartoli @ 34s

Pavlyuchenkova @ 50s

Jankovic @ 80s

[Solaris]

17 minutes into the Championship and a Brit has already lost the first set 6-0. 

Step forward and curtsey Miss Katie O'Brien.

[gatso]

alison riske has this amazing little arse wiggle thing that she does when waiting to receive service. well worth a watch on bbc2 now

[Snowball]

Outrights:

Djokovic @ 4 £100

Wozniacki @ 11s  £50
Zvonareva @ 20s £50
Pavlyuchenkova @ 50s £50


Good luck all.

Why did you take down your picks from today and replace them with Outright bets?
Reminds me of someone who used to post on here that would edit his posts during tournaments.

[ACE2M]

am on petkovic because bh says so

[Solaris]

Outrights:

Djokovic @ 4 £100

Wozniacki @ 11s  £50
Zvonareva @ 20s £50
Pavlyuchenkova @ 50s £50


Good luck all.

Why did you take down your picks from today and replace them with Outright bets?
Reminds me of someone who used to post on here that would edit his posts during tournaments.

Was going to edit them at the end of the day and post the final day's profit/loss along with tomorrow's bets in a new post. I'll post them now instead if it's an issue.

I also will look to trade IR and don't want to be accused of after-timing etc, but I'll post my picks anyway as I'm happy to stand by them.

Unfortunately due to the shit weather that's expected, the card for monday is unlikely to be completed. That said, I will be betting on the following:

I will use 20 quid bets as my base unit so if I put (2) next to it I'm making it 40 quid etc.

Stepanek @ 2.5 v Verdasco
Ljubicic @2.28 v Cilic
Riba @7.6 v Haase
Kavcic @ 2.52 v Kamke
Bemelmans @ 2.81 v Benneteau - LOST -20
Istomin @ 4.5 v Kohlscreiber - WON +70
Kubot @ 2.04 v Clement

MJMS @ 3.5 v Jankovic
Kanepi @ 1.8 (2) v Errani - LOST -40
Zahlavova @ 3.1 v Benesova
Martic @ 1.92 v King

[craigbetts]

Just lol at Andy Murray's 1st round match, a game he should win with his eyes closed and hes having to give it the tiger roars! His temperament is tez, I expect him to fall at the 4th hurdle!

The grass always looks nice on day 1, a little slippy though.

[Horneris]

Made a decent start. Got involved on Istomin to beat Kohlschreiber @ 4.8 and then followed up with Chela to beat Matosevic @ 2.28. I couldn't believe the price on Chela. Okay, so he hates grass and has won on it like three times life time but he has more talent in his little finger than Matosevic has in his whole body.

Only got up at 11.50 but will try and post some thoughts on matches 2moro if I get up earlier.

Surprised Murray lost a set to Gimeno Traver, hes awful, but its not the end of the world.

[crip17]

Djorkovic has always been a fan of mine but i feel federer will be ready to doing everything it takes to make his 6th title.    Na Li @10.5 is a steal as long as shes not too tired from her win in france on a surface that she considered her weakest.

NAP   NA LI  10.5   onbetfair