The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[RED-DOG]

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[kukushkin88]

Everything happening this week works in Boris' favour for a GE though?
Everyone is standing in his way, vote for him, he will get the job done.
It the perfect narative for his election campaign.

No deal legislation goes through this week.
Corbyn reluctantly agrees to a GE.
Boris wins a majority.
Boris undoes the no deal legislation and doesn't ask for an extension.

He still has a split vote with the BP though and he really can’t allow no deal to happen, so I can’t see the last sentence. Corbyn should just pick the best time, there’s no need to reluctantly agree now.

I basically agree that there are a few things aligned in his favour.

It’s funny given the laws surrounding elections that No 10 is allowed pretend there is an election, when there isn’t 😊.

[aaron1867]

Everything happening this week works in Boris' favour for a GE though?
Everyone is standing in his way, vote for him, he will get the job done.
It the perfect narative for his election campaign.

No deal legislation goes through this week.
Corbyn reluctantly agrees to a GE.
Boris wins a majority.
Boris undoes the no deal legislation and doesn't ask for an extension.

I think it’s the complete opposite. Everything is working against Boris.

It seems likely that when this bill passes that he will go again for an election. It seems likely that Labour will block this. Giving Labour an opportunity to plug a message of a failing Boris who couldn’t get us out before 31 Oct. It’ll get some votes for sure.

The biggest factor in this will be that most of the country are against no deal, some may want an end to it, but still don’t vote for a party that’ll go for that option. Brexit Party aren’t going to pick up enough seats to scratch the Tories back either. Not to mention the widely expected Tory loss in Scotland.

I genuinely think we will be in a similar position in a couple of months or have a government made up of LAB/LD/SNP/Green

[MANTIS01]

Everything happening this week works in Boris' favour for a GE though?
Everyone is standing in his way, vote for him, he will get the job done.
It the perfect narative for his election campaign.

No deal legislation goes through this week.
Corbyn reluctantly agrees to a GE.
Boris wins a majority.
Boris undoes the no deal legislation and doesn't ask for an extension.

I think it’s the complete opposite. Everything is working against Boris.

It seems likely that when this bill passes that he will go again for an election. It seems likely that Labour will block this. Giving Labour an opportunity to plug a message of a failing Boris who couldn’t get us out before 31 Oct. It’ll get some votes for sure.

The biggest factor in this will be that most of the country are against no deal, some may want an end to it, but still don’t vote for a party that’ll go for that option. Brexit Party aren’t going to pick up enough seats to scratch the Tories back either. Not to mention the widely expected Tory loss in Scotland.

I genuinely think we will be in a similar position in a couple of months or have a government made up of LAB/LD/SNP/Green

Labour block exit and block GE and then sell a campaign message that Boris is at fault for failing to proceed? Good luck with that.

Most people might be against No Deal but they have sense enough to realise that taking it off the table leads to the ongoing paralysis. Most people are sick of this and want the paralysis to end.

Boris is at least proposing a definite end, Labour are not. This will carry a lot of traction in any GE...unless of course Labour actually propose something credible.   

[StuartHopkin]

Everything happening this week works in Boris' favour for a GE though?
Everyone is standing in his way, vote for him, he will get the job done.
It the perfect narative for his election campaign.

No deal legislation goes through this week.
Corbyn reluctantly agrees to a GE.
Boris wins a majority.
Boris undoes the no deal legislation and doesn't ask for an extension.

I think it’s the complete opposite. Everything is working against Boris.

It seems likely that when this bill passes that he will go again for an election. It seems likely that Labour will block this. Giving Labour an opportunity to plug a message of a failing Boris who couldn’t get us out before 31 Oct. It’ll get some votes for sure.

The biggest factor in this will be that most of the country are against no deal, some may want an end to it, but still don’t vote for a party that’ll go for that option. Brexit Party aren’t going to pick up enough seats to scratch the Tories back either. Not to mention the widely expected Tory loss in Scotland.

I genuinely think we will be in a similar position in a couple of months or have a government made up of LAB/LD/SNP/Green

Labour block exit and block GE and then sell a campaign message that Boris is at fault for failing to proceed? Good luck with that.

Most people might be against No Deal but they have sense enough to realise that taking it off the table leads to the ongoing paralysis. Most people are sick of this and want the paralysis to end.

Boris is at least proposing a definite end, Labour are not. This will carry a lot of traction in any GE...unless of course Labour actually propose something credible.   

Always scary when I agree with Mantis, though I'm not sure leaving no deal on the table really adds much to the negotiation when it is so clear it isn't the desired outcome but must be left on the table for leverage.

I am sure we move in very different circles Aaron, but from the people I come in to contact with, a relatively small sample yes, but obviously some interesting finance people etc I have not spoken to one person who thinks Labour are doing anything other than playing political games and standing in the way of this being resolved.
Many of them, even though they don't like Boris or the Tories, were happy to see that something was going to happen.

These votes are so important that all MP's should be able to vote based on what they believe is in the country's best interest. Corbyn telling them to abstain yesterday is beyond ridiculous.

Personally I hope that this mess continues and then the EU refuse to extend, but I cannot see this ever happening as they will not want to be blamed for being the ones to actually invoke no deal.

[MANTIS01]

Everything happening this week works in Boris' favour for a GE though?
Everyone is standing in his way, vote for him, he will get the job done.
It the perfect narative for his election campaign.

No deal legislation goes through this week.
Corbyn reluctantly agrees to a GE.
Boris wins a majority.
Boris undoes the no deal legislation and doesn't ask for an extension.

He still has a split vote with the BP though and he really can’t allow no deal to happen, so I can’t see the last sentence. Corbyn should just pick the best time, there’s no need to reluctantly agree now.

I basically agree that there are a few things aligned in his favour.

It’s funny given the laws surrounding elections that No 10 is allowed pretend there is an election, when there isn’t 😊.

Yep funny that Boris is hitting the campaign trail already, talking to public about domestic affairs like police and health service.

After lengthy Brexit dither the public have huge appetite for domestic rhetoric

Labour focus on Stttoooppp Brexittt and little else will be big turn off

So funny

[tikay]

Boris Johnson's brother quits as Tory MP;


Jo Johnson
@JoJohnsonUK
It’s been an honour to represent Orpington for 9 years & to serve as a minister under three PMs. In recent weeks I’ve been torn between family loyalty and the national interest - it’s an unresolvable tension & time for others to take on my roles as MP & Minister. #overandout

[tikay]

Tory MP Jo Johnson was a transport minister in Theresa May's government.

However, he quit his post in November 2018 over her handling of Brexit, and called instead for a further referendum.

He appeared at his brother's campaign events with their father Stanley, despite their differences over Brexit, appearing to give Boris his support.

And he was rewarded as a result, being brought back into government and becoming a minister.

But now he has resigned from government again, saying there is tension where he is torn between "family loyalty and the national interest".

He will also step down as an MP.

[Doobs]

Everything happening this week works in Boris' favour for a GE though?
Everyone is standing in his way, vote for him, he will get the job done.
It the perfect narative for his election campaign.

No deal legislation goes through this week.
Corbyn reluctantly agrees to a GE.
Boris wins a majority.
Boris undoes the no deal legislation and doesn't ask for an extension.

He still has a split vote with the BP though and he really can’t allow no deal to happen, so I can’t see the last sentence. Corbyn should just pick the best time, there’s no need to reluctantly agree now.

I basically agree that there are a few things aligned in his favour.

It’s funny given the laws surrounding elections that No 10 is allowed pretend there is an election, when there isn’t 😊.

Yep funny that Boris is hitting the campaign trail already, talking to public about domestic affairs like police and health service.

After lengthy Brexit dither the public have huge appetite for domestic rhetoric

Labour focus on Stttoooppp Brexittt and little else will be big turn off

So funny

Labour has spent the last 3 years pretty much ignoring Brexit and hoping it goes away and instead focusing on domestic affairs... 

Didn't work out very well for them if you are unaware of their focus obv.

[bunnydas8888]

Everything happening this week works in Boris' favour for a GE though?
Everyone is standing in his way, vote for him, he will get the job done.
It the perfect narative for his election campaign.

No deal legislation goes through this week.
Corbyn reluctantly agrees to a GE.
Boris wins a majority.
Boris undoes the no deal legislation and doesn't ask for an extension.

I think it’s the complete opposite. Everything is working against Boris.

It seems likely that when this bill passes that he will go again for an election. It seems likely that Labour will block this. Giving Labour an opportunity to plug a message of a failing Boris who couldn’t get us out before 31 Oct. It’ll get some votes for sure.

The biggest factor in this will be that most of the country are against no deal, some may want an end to it, but still don’t vote for a party that’ll go for that option. Brexit Party aren’t going to pick up enough seats to scratch the Tories back either. Not to mention the widely expected Tory loss in Scotland.

I genuinely think we will be in a similar position in a couple of months or have a government made up of LAB/LD/SNP/Green

With the amendment that got passed with the bill, could boris put the WA back to the house before calling an election & after no new deal from eu. Then once labour block that again, he is set up perfectly for a ge after the 31st?

[aaron1867]

Everything happening this week works in Boris' favour for a GE though?
Everyone is standing in his way, vote for him, he will get the job done.
It the perfect narative for his election campaign.

No deal legislation goes through this week.
Corbyn reluctantly agrees to a GE.
Boris wins a majority.
Boris undoes the no deal legislation and doesn't ask for an extension.

I think it’s the complete opposite. Everything is working against Boris.

It seems likely that when this bill passes that he will go again for an election. It seems likely that Labour will block this. Giving Labour an opportunity to plug a message of a failing Boris who couldn’t get us out before 31 Oct. It’ll get some votes for sure.

The biggest factor in this will be that most of the country are against no deal, some may want an end to it, but still don’t vote for a party that’ll go for that option. Brexit Party aren’t going to pick up enough seats to scratch the Tories back either. Not to mention the widely expected Tory loss in Scotland.

I genuinely think we will be in a similar position in a couple of months or have a government made up of LAB/LD/SNP/Green

Labour block exit and block GE and then sell a campaign message that Boris is at fault for failing to proceed? Good luck with that.

Most people might be against No Deal but they have sense enough to realise that taking it off the table leads to the ongoing paralysis. Most people are sick of this and want the paralysis to end.

Boris is at least proposing a definite end, Labour are not. This will carry a lot of traction in any GE...unless of course Labour actually propose something credible.   

Always scary when I agree with Mantis, though I'm not sure leaving no deal on the table really adds much to the negotiation when it is so clear it isn't the desired outcome but must be left on the table for leverage.

I am sure we move in very different circles Aaron, but from the people I come in to contact with, a relatively small sample yes, but obviously some interesting finance people etc I have not spoken to one person who thinks Labour are doing anything other than playing political games and standing in the way of this being resolved.
Many of them, even though they don't like Boris or the Tories, were happy to see that something was going to happen.

These votes are so important that all MP's should be able to vote based on what they believe is in the country's best interest. Corbyn telling them to abstain yesterday is beyond ridiculous.

Personally I hope that this mess continues and then the EU refuse to extend, but I cannot see this ever happening as they will not want to be blamed for being the ones to actually invoke no deal.

Mantis - Do you really believe what you post? This isn't all about Labour and them apparently blocking it, it's about the government too. The response by the opposition is entirely to do with the strategy that Boris and Cummings have put themselves into a corner with.

If a few weeks ago they chose not to suspend parliament, would we be where we are at? If he came at with a simple plea for an election rather than pushing no deal and suspension, then we would be sat here knowing the election date. Instead, nobody can trust a word that Boris says so that the opposition have been forced to tick all the boxes, dot all the i's and make sure everything is nailed down before going for an election.

As for the election, I don't believe they hype. Tories will pretty much get wiped out in Scotland, you don't need the polls for that. But failing to deliver Brexit? Threat of No Deal? Suspending MP's? Are they really going to see tories get a majority?

And Stuart, of course we cant an end to this. But are Labour voters really going to vote Tory? I very much doubt that. They may to switch to the Brexit Party, but they really do need an upsurge and reality of a one agenda party, will that get Labour voters?

This General election has got stalemate written all over it. The only way out of this mess is that we go back to the people. Then if we choose to vote to leave again, then nobody has an excuse to protest or block it. Simple.

[aaron1867]

I think what has not been mentioned is that I think Boris may cancel him suspending parliament. Therefore can avoid a little embarrassment on his promise to deliver on 31 Oct.

He gets the election passed for 1 Nov. If he wins election he can overturn the no deal law. Then we face no deal again. 

[aaron1867]

A question for leave voters:

Let's say there was a second referendum tomorrow. It gives the whole country a time to have a final say again on Brexit. The MP's can't block it as they know we've voted a second time and it means any decision will be implemented. But on the other side of the coin there is a chance we might choose to remain. The ballot paper also gives you some sort of drop-down option.

A) Would you support it?

B) The drop down option for leave voters is a choice between DEAL (A deal similar to May's & would take 3-6 months to conclude) or No DEAL (leave straight away). Which would you choose?

[StuartHopkin]

I don't think lots of Labour voters will vote Tory, but I think a lot will be so disheartened by what Corbyn is doing they may not vote at all.

In answer to your question...

A) I would support it if as you say it was a guaranteed conclusion.
b) I would choose DEAL, 3-6 months is irrelevant if you have the certainty of how things are going to move forward.

[engy]

https://twitter.com/dionfanning/status/1169309541902770182?s=20

10 minutes long thought it was very good