Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Scottish Junior Cup Final today.
Been told off an Auchinleck player to get on George Pope to score anytime at 13/2 with Paddys, seemingly he's a left back who takes the Pens.
Having a quick look at their latest Cup results he has scored in 2 of their last 4 games
Recommend £25 @13/2 George Pope  http://www.oddschecker.com/football/non-league/scottish-non-league/auchinleck-v-shotts-bon-accord/anytime-goalscorer
Auchinleck are 2/5 favs for the match and 7/2 to score from a Penalty.
I'm pretty sure our very own Rod Paradise will be at this match today so hopefully he's screaming for a Penalty when the Talbot get in the Box.
20/1 FGS if you fancy a Banzai.
Live coverage on BBC Alba at 4.05pm

The nick of time.......

That's as odd as they get, but we are scrambling around for a winner, somewhere, anywhere........

Paddy Power RESTRICTED me to £9. I checked all the other PP Goalscorer Markets, & all seem to be restricted.

Managed to get on with Wm Hill, but at a lesser price - 6/1. The prevailing wisdom is lesser price, lesser bet, so.....

We have £20 with Wm Hill @ 6/1, Popey to be ANYTIME. I've swerved the Banzai, times are hard...... In fact, I hope we missed a winner with the Banzai, as at least we'd win this.

Good luck, & thanks.

PS - Did you know there is a very famous book which shares your alias? About a VERY wise & wealthy chap, too.

ON

27 May 2012 - Auchinleck Talbot v Shotts Bon Accord - Anytime Goalscorer

Pope @ 6/1

Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £140.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000016/F

[tikay]

Having a Small Punt on Cheltenham Town to win Div 2 Playoff in 90 Min's at 3.5

Felt that manager Mark Yates has assembled a good experienced side, got a great result at torquay and have been solid most of the season.

Crewe were poor early season but have come up on the rails, to have a long unbeaten run ....

I suspect it may well be close but something tells me Cheltenham will come good i hope !!

Taking a chance on 90 Min's Result ... But on such a hot day neither side will fancy Extra time

£25 3.5 betfair for me.

Ian.

Want the good news, or the bad news?

OK, the bad first.

I forgot to put this on, sorry. Can't do afterrtiming either, so it's "no bet". I have a great excuse, but I won't bore you with it.

The good news? Cheltenham are currently 1-0 down.

God help me if they come back to win, but for your sake, I hope they do.

Sorry bud, but you might just have swerved the ignomoy of your first tip here being a dud. We have a tradition that all maiden bets are winners. Chompy is the only exception, & you know him well enough to know I speak the troof. 

[The Camel]

Who do GB have to beat to win the football Olympics?

I haven't looked yet, but presumably Brazil, Spian , Germany are in?

No Germany.

GB around 6/1 to win gold.

Think we'll have a very strong team and home support will be absolutely massive.

I think home support is massive, but are we really going to have a strong team?  The Euro 2012 squad doesn't look strong and none of them are playing in the Olympics.  Or is just the case that everyone else will be really bad?

Bale, Ramsey, Walker, Giggs, Bellamy looks like the basis of a stronger team than England will put out at the Euros to me.

Beats me why Rooney didn't sit out the Euros to play in the Olympics.

[redarmi]

Would like another opinion on this to back me up but like Boston Celtics +7.5 2.03 in first game versus Miami Heat in the NBA.  The last ten times these two teams have played Boston have won four of them and Bosh still isn't back although Haslem will be.  We can probably dismiss the game in Boston at the end of the season as fairly meaningless and Lebron and Wade sat but the Celtics were 7.5 point dogs at the AA Arena at the beginning of April and all the stars played and they won by 8.  Heat have an extra games rest but given the minutes Wade and LeBron are havig to put in they will need it as both are playing 35+ minutes a game and Lebron often putting up nearly 40 minutes court time and I would have thought fatigue will become an issue at some point.

[Snowball]

I didn't know that Tikay, nut found this review on it.

Here is THE book recounting the life and times of one of the most respected men in the world, Warren Buffett. The legendary Omaha investor has never written a memoir, but now he has allowed one writer, Alice Schroeder, unprecedented access to explore directly with him and with those closest to him his work, opinions, struggles, triumphs, follies, and wisdom. The result is the personally revealing and complete biography of the man known everywhere as “The Oracle of Omaha.”Although the media track him constantly, Buffett himself has never told his full life story. His reality is private, especially by celebrity standards. Indeed, while the homespun persona that the public sees is true as far as it goes, it goes only so far. Warren Buffett is an array of paradoxes. He set out to prove that nice guys can finish first. Over the years he treated his investors as partners, acted as their steward, and championed honesty as an investor, CEO, board member, essayist, and speaker. At the same time he became the world’s richest man, all from the modest Omaha headquarters of his company Berkshire Hathaway. None of this fits the term “simple.”When Alice Schroeder met Warren Buffett she was an insurance industry analyst and a gifted writer known for her keen perception and business acumen. Her writings on finance impressed him, and as she came to know him she realized that while much had been written on the subject of his investing style, no one had moved beyond that to explore his larger philosophy, which is bound up in a complex personality and the details of his life. Out of this came his decision to cooperate with her on the book about himself that he would never write.Never before has Buffett spent countless hours responding to a writer’s questions, talking, giving complete access to his wife, children, friends, and business associates—opening his files, recalling his childhood. It was an act of courage, as The Snowball makes immensely clear. Being human, his own life, like most lives, has been a mix of strengths and frailties. Yet notable though his wealth may be, Buffett’s legacy will not be his ranking on the scorecard of wealth; it will be his principles and ideas that have enriched people’s lives. This book tells you why Warren Buffett is the most fascinating American success story of our time.

[tikay]

I didn't know that Tikay, nut found this review on it.

Here is THE book recounting the life and times of one of the most respected men in the world, Warren Buffett. The legendary Omaha investor has never written a memoir, but now he has allowed one writer, Alice Schroeder, unprecedented access to explore directly with him and with those closest to him his work, opinions, struggles, triumphs, follies, and wisdom. The result is the personally revealing and complete biography of the man known everywhere as “The Oracle of Omaha.”Although the media track him constantly, Buffett himself has never told his full life story. His reality is private, especially by celebrity standards. Indeed, while the homespun persona that the public sees is true as far as it goes, it goes only so far. Warren Buffett is an array of paradoxes. He set out to prove that nice guys can finish first. Over the years he treated his investors as partners, acted as their steward, and championed honesty as an investor, CEO, board member, essayist, and speaker. At the same time he became the world’s richest man, all from the modest Omaha headquarters of his company Berkshire Hathaway. None of this fits the term “simple.”When Alice Schroeder met Warren Buffett she was an insurance industry analyst and a gifted writer known for her keen perception and business acumen. Her writings on finance impressed him, and as she came to know him she realized that while much had been written on the subject of his investing style, no one had moved beyond that to explore his larger philosophy, which is bound up in a complex personality and the details of his life. Out of this came his decision to cooperate with her on the book about himself that he would never write.Never before has Buffett spent countless hours responding to a writer’s questions, talking, giving complete access to his wife, children, friends, and business associates—opening his files, recalling his childhood. It was an act of courage, as The Snowball makes immensely clear. Being human, his own life, like most lives, has been a mix of strengths and frailties. Yet notable though his wealth may be, Buffett’s legacy will not be his ranking on the scorecard of wealth; it will be his principles and ideas that have enriched people’s lives. This book tells you why Warren Buffett is the most fascinating American success story of our time.

A good, if incomplete, review.

Warren later fell out with the Authoress over the way she portrayed him, & never spoke to her again, which seemed rather odd for one so wise.

And if Popey does not score today, I might not speak to you again. We need a winner!

[bobby1]

 I'm a massive fan of the bunny.

 Generally I think punters like the tortoise not the hare. They like to try and find one in the pack who might come out and beat the leader. Over the years it has often been the case in all sports that the obvious leader is often too big a price and that punters will look to get it beat. This theory can particularly throw up value in things like golf tournaments where the third round leader is often a much bigger price than his chance. This can often be down to bookmaker liabilities.

...

Thanks for posting yesterday Neil, I really love reading your stuff.

Golf in running is something I am involved in so thought I might comment on your post.

Re third round leaders and their prices I have a particular approach which is the default unless I have a particular opinion about the player or the ones in behind that are most likely to catch him.That is it makes sense to get them in at that point in the event for a few reasons.

Like three shot leads, leads after rounds are regularly overrated imo. A break at 18, 36 and 54 holes is just a break in play, if they played 72 holes str8 thru you would see plenty of swings and swongs (sorry,couldn't resist, it fitted too well) but a lot of people take their bets in between rounds and before the 4th round starts. There are a lot of people looking to have a bet on the golf then coz they aren't at work at those times in the events during the first three days and have the free time to sit down and take a player to watch on TV on Sundays.

So on Sunday their default is to look at the leaderboard and see xxx is 2 clear, he will prob win from there so I will back him. So as a layer that is a good time to get a player in, when most people want to take that selection ( which is also why laying the guy that's just made a birdie is good too). On BF timing is big in that spot too, the fav will prob be shorter on Sunday morning than he was on Saturday night for those reasons too.

The reason I want to lay that guy is that golf events are very rarely won easily so even if he does win I still get a chance to lay others,as an example.

Say I am top price for the firm at 2/1 the guy that leads by 2 shots after 54 holes and you think he is value there and take a bet. During the course of the 4th round your man start only ok, the ones behind him get shorter. Your man gets bigger and during the course of the day there are 3-4 different players that are trading as fav, your man is never far away and  touches 5 or 6/1 and bigger when the others go in front, in the end your man wins in a good finish and your bet at 2/1 wins. So obv the bet I struck you and  others between the 3rd and 4th round is a winner.

As a layer tho, I have laid you 2/1 that guy. I might have laid 9/4 the next guy that took the lead. Then 7/4 the next one, 7/2 about someone else that challenged and a  bit of 6/1 a different guy, some bigger prices about players that looked like posting good scores and having a chance but then faded away. So my % laid book is brilliant and I would win money there  most of the time, unless a customer that bets significantly bigger than the others also bets the winner and skews that weeks book.

So pre the 4th round you wanted to take the 2/1 and your player won, job done. I want to get that guy in because I expect most weeks it will not be plain sailing to get the win and I can lay plenty of runners in play too, job done as well but on paper by being stand out top price at 2/1 before the start of the 4th round it would then appear I have got it wrong as he has won.

Some weeks I lay the 2/1 he kicks on early and wins easily and I do my money but in the long term most events are won the hard way.

I think most firms operate a similar way these days re libs tho Neil, pre game figures and in play figures are attributed to the different trader. In 5 years I have never once had the current firm say' we have this guy for 500k pre game you better swerve him' because once the event starts it is my book so those figs are mine. The pre game guy is stuck with his figs until the end result is known. Sometimes my book will have a bogey that I want to avoid and will do but that is just bookmaking an event in general isn't it, if the pre game figs are a loss of 300 and I win 100 for the firm in play then my figs are plus 100 and his are minus 300 so our paths never really cross on the lib front and his position doesn't affect mine.

cheers

[tikay]

Meanwhile, a Sunday afternoon Update.

We did our dough in the F1.

Ditto the Irish 1000 Guineas

Ditto ALL our 2nd Test bets in the cricket. (Roach was our last hope).

Still, we accidentally swerved Xpressmans Cheltenham Town tip, which is currently losing. There's always a silver lining.

Can Snowball's Pope score & help us avoid a wipe-out?

Monday morning's Update will be a sea of red.

[Bazzaboy]

I've been backing Beckham for SPOTY over the last 3 months got a pretty big position now.

I think if GB win the football gold he'll be a shoo in.

33/1 still huge value imo.

Are the public really that interested in Olympic football?  I'm not convinced.

[tikay]

I've been backing Beckham for SPOTY over the last 3 months got a pretty big position now.

I think if GB win the football gold he'll be a shoo in.

33/1 still huge value imo.

Are the public really that interested in Olympic football?  I'm not convinced.

I actually think interest will be MASSIVE, & Golden Boy Beckham will get the lion's share of the limelight.

Camel is a sly old ruminant.

[tikay]

West Indies 14-2.

You have to guess who got both wickets.

[Bazzaboy]

I've been backing Beckham for SPOTY over the last 3 months got a pretty big position now.

I think if GB win the football gold he'll be a shoo in.

33/1 still huge value imo.

Are the public really that interested in Olympic football?  I'm not convinced.

I actually think interest will be MASSIVE, & Golden Boy Beckham will get the lion's share of the limelight.

Camel is a sly old ruminant.

Yeah I could be wrong.  I personally have no interest in it at all which is probably clouding my judgement somewhat.

Agree that if they do win then Beckham will get the headlines.

[gatso]

I've been backing Beckham for SPOTY over the last 3 months got a pretty big position now.

I think if GB win the football gold he'll be a shoo in.

33/1 still huge value imo.

Are the public really that interested in Olympic football?  I'm not convinced.

I actually think interest will be MASSIVE, & Golden Boy Beckham will get the lion's share of the limelight.

Camel is a sly old ruminant.

I'd say interest in beckham will be massive and football team gb will get their share of the limelight

end result maybe the same though

[tikay]

I've been backing Beckham for SPOTY over the last 3 months got a pretty big position now.

I think if GB win the football gold he'll be a shoo in.

33/1 still huge value imo.

Are the public really that interested in Olympic football?  I'm not convinced.

I actually think interest will be MASSIVE, & Golden Boy Beckham will get the lion's share of the limelight.

Camel is a sly old ruminant.

Yeah I could be wrong.  I personally have no interest in it at all which is probably clouding my judgement somewhat.

Agree that if they do win then Beckham will get the headlines.

For the record, I have zero interest, too. But the red-tops like easy headlines, & Becks fits the bill a treat.  A good Olympics Football tourney by him will get him a Knighthood.

[Teacake]

Re the Scottish Junior Cup Final, Shotts are playing there 15th game in 28 days!