Vegas & The Aftermath - Diary

[redarmi]

[/quote]

I want to have a bet, I'm not looking to trade, I thought Bayern were good value at 8/15 that's why I wanted the bet.

Betfair has ruined gambling, wish it had never been invented.
[/quote]

Never a truer a word spoken.  Once upon a time bookmakers odds compilers had opinions of their own and if yours was better than theirs you could get paid.  Now their bosses compare their prices to Betfair and are paranoid about arbers and any account that seeks to take the best price is marked as an arer and their max bets is about 25p.  I have never ever arbed a price in my life but I have it on good authority that many of my accounts with British and european bookmakers have me marked as an arber.  Ironically, the very best arbers utilise place betting and multiples and derivative markets and never have their accounts marked up in this way and most odds compilers nowadays are not intelligent enough to understand how their markets relate to each other.  It is not unknown to see a bookmaker offer, say, Man Utd on their 12x market at 11/10 and offer their opposition on the Asian market +1/2 at Evens for example.

[tikay]

I want to have a bet, I'm not looking to trade, I thought Bayern were good value at 8/15 that's why I wanted the bet.

Betfair has ruined gambling, wish it had never been invented.
[/quote]

Never a truer a word spoken.  Once upon a time bookmakers odds compilers had opinions of their own and if yours was better than theirs you could get paid.  Now their bosses compare their prices to Betfair and are paranoid about arbers and any account that seeks to take the best price is marked as an arer and their max bets is about 25p.  I have never ever arbed a price in my life but I have it on good authority that many of my accounts with British and european bookmakers have me marked as an arber.  Ironically, the very best arbers utilise place betting and multiples and derivative markets and never have their accounts marked up in this way and most odds compilers nowadays are not intelligent enough to understand how their markets relate to each other.  It is not unknown to see a bookmaker offer, say, Man Utd on their 12x market at 11/10 and offer their opposition on the Asian market +1/2 at Evens for example.[/quote]

As one who grew up on "old-fashioned" SP betting, shilling cross doubles & half-crown Round Robins & Yankees, can you decode that bit for me please?!

I've not had a bet since the day I started poker, & it costs me nought, whereas betting has cost me "a bob or two" down the years, but it still fascinates me, & it's a struggle for me not to get back into my betting habits again.

If I were to start again - it's calling me so hard, ugh - I'd go the Exchange route I think, which I'm utterly fascinated with, but just don't understand. (one day I want to "green out"......)

Anyway, decode that bit for me, please.

[Karabiner]

"Indian Hill Railways" which I am currently watching on BBC4 tonight would seem to me to be right up your siding so to speak Tony.

You should try and find it on i-player or whatever those thingys are, I'm sure you'll love all those old antique steam locos.

[RED-DOG]

"Indian Hill Railways" which I am currently watching on BBC4 tonight would seem to me to be right up your siding so to speak Tony.

You should try and find it on i-player or whatever those thingys are, I'm sure you'll love all those old antique steam locos.

Only the locos are antique, the steam is brand new.

[The Camel]

I want to have a bet, I'm not looking to trade, I thought Bayern were good value at 8/15 that's why I wanted the bet.

Betfair has ruined gambling, wish it had never been invented.

Never a truer a word spoken.  Once upon a time bookmakers odds compilers had opinions of their own and if yours was better than theirs you could get paid.  Now their bosses compare their prices to Betfair and are paranoid about arbers and any account that seeks to take the best price is marked as an arer and their max bets is about 25p.  I have never ever arbed a price in my life but I have it on good authority that many of my accounts with British and european bookmakers have me marked as an arber.  Ironically, the very best arbers utilise place betting and multiples and derivative markets and never have their accounts marked up in this way and most odds compilers nowadays are not intelligent enough to understand how their markets relate to each other.  It is not unknown to see a bookmaker offer, say, Man Utd on their 12x market at 11/10 and offer their opposition on the Asian market +1/2 at Evens for example.[/quote]

As one who grew up on "old-fashioned" SP betting, shilling cross doubles & half-crown Round Robins & Yankees, can you decode that bit for me please?!

I've not had a bet since the day I started poker, & it costs me nought, whereas betting has cost me "a bob or two" down the years, but it still fascinates me, & it's a struggle for me not to get back into my betting habits again.

If I were to start again - it's calling me so hard, ugh - I'd go the Exchange route I think, which I'm utterly fascinated with, but just don't understand. (one day I want to "green out"......)

Anyway, decode that bit for me, please.
[/quote]

I'll decode for you.

Sometime a bookmaker will offer an arbitrage opportunity with different markets on the same game.

Lets say Man Utd are at home to Arsenal.

Their traditional market may be Man U Evs, Arsenal 3/1 Draw 11/5.

At the same time their asian handicap market might be Man Utd -1/2 goal 8/11 Arsenal +1/2 goal 11/10

You could have £525 on Man U at evens and £500 on Arsenal +1/2 at 11/10 and whatever the result you make £25.

Bookmakers (and I) hate this and anyone identified as an arber is put on the lowest possible stake allowance.

The problam is, legitimate punters who simply think something is a decent bet get caught because bookies believe anyone price sensitive is an arber.

One funny story:

Sporting Index once really fancied one side in a NZ v Australia rugby match and deliberately offered an arb price (most of the time arbs are accidental). However they didn't want the filthy arbers to benefit from them offering free money, so when someone rang up for bet they were told they could only have the bet if they could name 3 players from each side. hence only true rugby punters could get a bet on whereas the arbers were left huffing and puffing.

Beautiful.

[Simon Galloway]

A simple "middle" that I used to pull off in the playground years before computers Betfair was invented.

in that Man U v Arsenal game.  Go up to a gooner and have a "£5 straight bet" that Arsenal don't win.  Then have a "£5 straight bet" with a Man U fan that "Man U don't win"  I don't think anyone ever stopped to think that they were giving me the other team and the draw for evens.  Now if one team wins, I just passed £5 from a to b or from b to a.   But if it was a draw, I binned £10.  Assuming no counterparty credit risk, which wasn't always the case.  If the bet was in sufficient size (hardly ever) I could also "all green" by laying someone the draw, something that happened literally once or twice ever.

Nowadays I would fall foul of the "name 3 players" qualification and am therefore duly retired.

[wormster]

The Tiger Woods "story behind the story" gets more & more intriguing.

The Press Conference - taking place now I believe - is bizarrely timed to coincide with the Accenture Tourney. That'd be Accenture, who abandoned their sponsorship of him when it all kicked off.

And some Press Conference. "Invited" friends & colleagues only, & no questions from the floor!

I'm trying to stay onside with a sporting hero here, but he's not making it easy.

I feel exactly as I did when Piggott got sent down. I want to make excuses for my fallen hero, but their "damage limitation" skills seem to need a bit of honing.

There are pros & cons of course, & we'll never know the full story. Simply, I just thought watching Woods play golf - or Piggott ride a waiting race - was a thing of beauty.

I fancy there are more twists & turns yet in the Tiger tale.

I was driving my 9yo nephew home on Friday and the news about Woods' press conference came on the radio. "What's he done?" my nephew asked. "He got caught cheating on his wife with other women" I answered. "What's that got to do with golf?" was the reply. Out of the mouth of babes etc.....

[MANTIS01]

The whole Tiger Woods press conference was a cringeworthy affair. Every aspect of it was horrible. Probably the most disturbing part was the man's incredibly dire dress sense. I mean what's with the ill-fitting black jacket, thoroughly ridiculous massive-collared purple shirt, and the schoolboy grey trousers. Since when did that combo work? What a mess. I know Americans are notorious for being clueless at dressing themselves but you'd think the dollars would buy the man some style. His whole demeanour was so self-indulgent and pitiful as well. How was that approach ever going to improve his image and popularity? He should've bowled out looking snappy juggling a ball with his wedge. Then he should've pointed straight at the camera and said "I did not have sexual relations with those women". Much better strat imo.

[bobby1]

Ladbrokes's trading may be stabilising, but the shops are underperfroming Hills a lot still, and the rights issue has put it on a sounder financial footing. But the group is struggling to compete online, and its a struggle to see it having the fire-power to invest in the ready-made solution it needs. In essence it is an old fashioned business competing against nimbler and better financed businesses with more innovation

It's also yet to find a replacement for outgoing chief executive Chris Bell and, on a forecast PE ratio of 10, the shares are high enough (ie likely to fall further) considering tougher gambling taxation in 2010, tough consumer outlook etc. Set against that, the World Cup should be great news, unless England win!

Debt wise they are refinancing debt due soon to mature after 2012, this should provide some comfort.

A MBO/VC buyout is a possibility at some stage. Run it for cash, work the assets, get away from City demands for growth. The core isn't a growth business, the new areas are but require shed loads of investment

This is interesting Rich. One area that concerns me a lot with a view tio Hills , laddies shares etc is this. All their huge growth is coming from FOBT in the shops, so the big three are ploughing money into getting shiops and maxing them out with these machines. Now it doesnt take a genius to work out that in say the next ten years the % of gambling business done in betting shops is going to decline a lot.

One reason is there will be a generation of gamblers that know only betting shops( and horse racing) dying away and unlikely to be replensished by younger people and those younger generation are going to bet online or via mobile phones.

So what you are left with at the mo is the big three buying up shops as it can make plenty if money from the machines but in  ten years they are gonna have a load of empty shops , I cannot understand their thinking at all.

[bobby1]

I want to have a bet, I'm not looking to trade, I thought Bayern were good value at 8/15 that's why I wanted the bet.

Betfair has ruined gambling, wish it had never been invented.
[/quote]

Never a truer a word spoken.  Once upon a time bookmakers odds compilers had opinions of their own and if yours was better than theirs you could get paid.  Now their bosses compare their prices to Betfair and are paranoid about arbers and any account that seeks to take the best price is marked as an arer and their max bets is about 25p.  I have never ever arbed a price in my life but I have it on good authority that many of my accounts with British and european bookmakers have me marked as an arber.  Ironically, the very best arbers utilise place betting and multiples and derivative markets and never have their accounts marked up in this way and most odds compilers nowadays are not intelligent enough to understand how their markets relate to each other.  It is not unknown to see a bookmaker offer, say, Man Utd on their 12x market at 11/10 and offer their opposition on the Asian market +1/2 at Evens for example.
[/quote]


This

[rex008]

Geeky wikipedia article of the day - the F1 rocket engine as used on the first stage of the Saturn V (Apollo missions) rocket. Each engine consumed about 2600kg of fuel every second! And there were 5 of these strapped to the bottom of the rocket. The technological achievement of getting to the moon less than 10 years after the idea the first proposed is something that astonishes and impresses me.

Sorry it's not about a train though .

[GreekStein]

Missed the show last night.

Who was on and am I still top?

[Chompy]

Don't think there was a guest on Saturday, so feel free to wave those hands around in celebration sir.

[tikay]

Geeky wikipedia article of the day - the F1 rocket engine as used on the first stage of the Saturn V (Apollo missions) rocket. Each engine consumed about 2600kg of fuel every second! And there were 5 of these strapped to the bottom of the rocket. The technological achievement of getting to the moon less than 10 years after the idea the first proposed is something that astonishes and impresses me.

Sorry it's not about a train though .

Thank you.

The mind boggles!

And good to see the Americans don't worry too much about "green" issues. I wonder what the carbon footprint on one of those babies is?*

*Come to think of it, I wonder what "carbon footprint is?

[tikay]

Missed the show last night.

Who was on and am I still top?

"The Grind" has been deferred for a week or two, to give the Camera Operators a break. They got a bit stressed about some Greek bloke who was waving his arms about wholesale. An amateur, apparently.