Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Betfair Fixed Odds are now 14/1 1/5 4 mcdowell for those who fancy him

I neeed doobsy to remind me on this one. We are on WIN only, but I can't recall if we wanted this EW price?

[Doobs]

Betfair Fixed Odds are now 14/1 1/5 4 mcdowell for those who fancy him

I neeed doobsy to remind me on this one. We are on WIN only, but I can't recall if we wanted this EW price?

You could get 4.4 yesterday on the exchange, I was laid at that price.  Even today I think you lose a lot on the win price in exchange for not much gain on the place.  I imagine you'd get 4 laid quite easily on the exchange if you wanted a place bet.

[JaffaCake]

Had a look at Strictly prices today. There's six left, 4 birds, 2 blokes. The blokes are the two outsiders, and to go this weekend, are both 2/1 faves. Next best price is Abbey at 5/1, so it seems pretty likely one of the blokes goes. Abbey got 40 out of 40 last week so it seems impossible for her to go unless both blokes escape the bottom 2, because the judges couldn't vote off someone they gave a perfect score to.

In the top man betting, obviously it's now just between the 2 left, Ashley and Pat. Ashley is odds on everywhere to be top man, s short as 4/7, Pat odds against.

Given that it's highly likely these 2 are the worst 2 and 1 will almost certainly go this week (if it's any one of them and someone else I can't see anyone but the bloke going) then is backing Pat to go this week not getting 2/1 on an odds-on shot, as Ash is so short in the top man market?

I realise Ash can be top man and Pat not go this week, so it's not quite that simple, but I just don't see how one of the blokes doesn't go this week. Am I thiking too simple? 2/1 on an odds-on looks juicy to me and even if it's not quite that simple, 2/1 looks big to me, if the top man market is correct, which with like 10 books pricing it, it should be. Maybe it's just that the odd-on is wrong? Either way, I'm backing Pat to go this week t 2/1

[horseplayer]

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[Doobs]

Had a look at Strictly prices today. There's six left, 4 birds, 2 blokes. The blokes are the two outsiders, and to go this weekend, are both 2/1 faves. Next best price is Abbey at 5/1, so it seems pretty likely one of the blokes goes. Abbey got 40 out of 40 last week so it seems impossible for her to go unless both blokes escape the bottom 2, because the judges couldn't vote off someone they gave a perfect score to.

In the top man betting, obviously it's now just between the 2 left, Ashley and Pat. Ashley is odds on everywhere to be top man, s short as 4/7, Pat odds against.

Given that it's highly likely these 2 are the worst 2 and 1 will almost certainly go this week (if it's any one of them and someone else I can't see anyone but the bloke going) then is backing Pat to go this week not getting 2/1 on an odds-on shot, as Ash is so short in the top man market?

I realise Ash can be top man and Pat not go this week, so it's not quite that simple, but I just don't see how one of the blokes doesn't go this week. Am I thiking too simple? 2/1 on an odds-on looks juicy to me and even if it's not quite that simple, 2/1 looks big to me, if the top man market is correct, which with like 10 books pricing it, it should be. Maybe it's just that the odd-on is wrong? Either way, I'm backing Pat to go this week t 2/1

I am a bit wary about this week.  Patrick is a judge's favourite and they get double the influence they normally get this week because of the Swingathon.  I think he probably deserves to go, and think that he has little public support, just better to leave it a week? 

[JaffaCake]

Had a look at Strictly prices today. There's six left, 4 birds, 2 blokes. The blokes are the two outsiders, and to go this weekend, are both 2/1 faves. Next best price is Abbey at 5/1, so it seems pretty likely one of the blokes goes. Abbey got 40 out of 40 last week so it seems impossible for her to go unless both blokes escape the bottom 2, because the judges couldn't vote off someone they gave a perfect score to.

In the top man betting, obviously it's now just between the 2 left, Ashley and Pat. Ashley is odds on everywhere to be top man, s short as 4/7, Pat odds against.

Given that it's highly likely these 2 are the worst 2 and 1 will almost certainly go this week (if it's any one of them and someone else I can't see anyone but the bloke going) then is backing Pat to go this week not getting 2/1 on an odds-on shot, as Ash is so short in the top man market?

I realise Ash can be top man and Pat not go this week, so it's not quite that simple, but I just don't see how one of the blokes doesn't go this week. Am I thiking too simple? 2/1 on an odds-on looks juicy to me and even if it's not quite that simple, 2/1 looks big to me, if the top man market is correct, which with like 10 books pricing it, it should be. Maybe it's just that the odd-on is wrong? Either way, I'm backing Pat to go this week t 2/1

I am a bit wary about this week.  Patrick is a judge's favourite and they get double the influence they normally get this week because of the Swingathon.  I think he probably deserves to go, and think that he has little public support, just better to leave it a week? 

Still more interested in whether the maths makes sense? Like if u think Pat is gonna get double the judge's love, who do u think is going this week? U agree either bloke goes if they're against anyone other than each other? If hu think Pat goes? So if Pat is bottom 2 he goes, if Ash is he goes against everyone bar Pat. That's my feeling. So the only way Ash isn't top man is if Pat isn't in the bottom 2, which seems unlikely. Just can't get my head round how they're both odds on to be bottom 2, they're the faves to get booted by a long way, Ash is odds on to be top man yet it's 2/1 Pat to go this week. Surely one of them is going.

[Chompy]

Tomorrow at Sandown, it's effectively Rolling Aces v Harry Topper in the 2.20 Sandown and it's 6/5 each of two, plus the rag at 8/1.

Rolling Aces has more toe and is a good jumper. Harry Topper is more about stamina and usually hits one or two. In a small field round Sandown tactics will play a part, especially over the railway fences.

This might be a good time for a first ever IR bet. Thinking along the line of £100 @ 6/5 Rolling Aces with a view to laying back £80 @ 1.5 IR.

[tikay]

Tomorrow at Sandown, it's effectively Rolling Aces v Harry Topper in the 2.20 Sandown and it's 6/5 each of two, plus the rag at 8/1.

Rolling Aces has more toe and is a good jumper. Harry Topper is more about stamina and usually hits one or two. In a small field round Sandown tactics will play a part, especially over the railway fences.

This might be a good time for a first ever IR bet. Thinking along the line of £100 @ 6/5 Rolling Aces with a view to laying back £80 @ 1.5 IR.

If & KNOW I'll be available @ 2.20, I'll be able to do this, but I don't know yet if I will.

Perfect opportunity for fat-fingered misclickage, too.

[Omm]

McDowell -1 and leading, is it too early to celebrate? 

[JaffaCake]

Sportsbook.com ® ‏@Sportsbook_com 1m
#JameisWinston wont be charged. Odds to win Heisman for him have gone from 1/20 to 1/30

Think we got on him at 10/11 the day after Mariota's chances disappeared...lucky redarmi spotted it ofc. Decided in 10 days I think

[sonour]

Tomorrow at Sandown, it's effectively Rolling Aces v Harry Topper in the 2.20 Sandown and it's 6/5 each of two, plus the rag at 8/1.

Rolling Aces has more toe and is a good jumper. Harry Topper is more about stamina and usually hits one or two. In a small field round Sandown tactics will play a part, especially over the railway fences.

This might be a good time for a first ever IR bet. Thinking along the line of £100 @ 6/5 Rolling Aces with a view to laying back £80 @ 1.5 IR.

If & KNOW I'll be available @ 2.20, I'll be able to do this, but I don't know yet if I will.

Perfect opportunity for fat-fingered misclickage, too.

Tikay, you can do the back and the lay now. Set the lay to 1.5 and tick keep in play.

[bobby1]

seems to be confirmed here too.

Florida State redshirt freshman QB Jameis Winston will not be charged by Florida police, according to ESPN's Jeff Cameron.
Florida state attorney Willie Meggs is scheduled to make the announcement shortly. Cameron noted the accuser posted a .046 blood alcohol level and did not have any drugs in her system after the sexual assault accusation was made. Florida State will travel to Charlotte tonight for the ACC Championship game, which will be played on Saturday against Duke.

[Doobs]

Had a look at Strictly prices today. There's six left, 4 birds, 2 blokes. The blokes are the two outsiders, and to go this weekend, are both 2/1 faves. Next best price is Abbey at 5/1, so it seems pretty likely one of the blokes goes. Abbey got 40 out of 40 last week so it seems impossible for her to go unless both blokes escape the bottom 2, because the judges couldn't vote off someone they gave a perfect score to.

In the top man betting, obviously it's now just between the 2 left, Ashley and Pat. Ashley is odds on everywhere to be top man, s short as 4/7, Pat odds against.

Given that it's highly likely these 2 are the worst 2 and 1 will almost certainly go this week (if it's any one of them and someone else I can't see anyone but the bloke going) then is backing Pat to go this week not getting 2/1 on an odds-on shot, as Ash is so short in the top man market?

I realise Ash can be top man and Pat not go this week, so it's not quite that simple, but I just don't see how one of the blokes doesn't go this week. Am I thiking too simple? 2/1 on an odds-on looks juicy to me and even if it's not quite that simple, 2/1 looks big to me, if the top man market is correct, which with like 10 books pricing it, it should be. Maybe it's just that the odd-on is wrong? Either way, I'm backing Pat to go this week t 2/1

I am a bit wary about this week.  Patrick is a judge's favourite and they get double the influence they normally get this week because of the Swingathon.  I think he probably deserves to go, and think that he has little public support, just better to leave it a week? 

Still more interested in whether the maths makes sense? Like if u think Pat is gonna get double the judge's love, who do u think is going this week? U agree either bloke goes if they're against anyone other than each other? If hu think Pat goes? So if Pat is bottom 2 he goes, if Ash is he goes against everyone bar Pat. That's my feeling. So the only way Ash isn't top man is if Pat isn't in the bottom 2, which seems unlikely. Just can't get my head round how they're both odds on to be bottom 2, they're the faves to get booted by a long way, Ash is odds on to be top man yet it's 2/1 Pat to go this week. Surely one of them is going.

I have probably been talking nonsense, I just checked how the Swingathon votes went before.  The Swingathon and judges scores for the main dance are added together to get one combined judges score.  That means that they can't put poor Patrick out of reach.  So good chance Patrick can go.  Len has the casting vote in the Swingathon, and think he is pro Susanna and Patrick.  

Abbey can obviously bottom 2, as she has already.  Nat bottom 2 would be an interesting bet, she doesn't poll well... To be honest I don't think any of them are immune, Sophie hasn't been marked that positively in the past, and I just don't see the love for Susanna.  At least Susanna is priced a bit better again now.

I have some fairly weighty positions, and am fairly confused.  If I had a bet, it might be the flyer on Nat bottom 2, but 2/1 Pat doesn't look terrible.  We have missed better bets though and I will be happier when it is down to the public.  

[Doobs]

McDowell -1 and leading, is it too early to celebrate? 

That draw looks a bit rigged to me, did they ask them who they wanted to play with, or is it just coincidence at the top of the order?

[sonour]

Tomorrow at Sandown, it's effectively Rolling Aces v Harry Topper in the 2.20 Sandown and it's 6/5 each of two, plus the rag at 8/1.

Rolling Aces has more toe and is a good jumper. Harry Topper is more about stamina and usually hits one or two. In a small field round Sandown tactics will play a part, especially over the railway fences.

This might be a good time for a first ever IR bet. Thinking along the line of £100 @ 6/5 Rolling Aces with a view to laying back £80 @ 1.5 IR.

If & KNOW I'll be available @ 2.20, I'll be able to do this, but I don't know yet if I will.

Perfect opportunity for fat-fingered misclickage, too.

Tikay, you can do the back and the lay now. Set the lay to 1.5 and tick keep in play.

Or back £100 at 2.2 and lay £150 at 1.5 for a profit of £44 win or lose.