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COVID19
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Topic: COVID19 (Read 363950 times)
jakally
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 2009
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #2730 on:
June 04, 2020, 07:38:37 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on June 04, 2020, 07:13:16 PM
NHS test-and-trace app 'not fully operational until September'
https://theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/04/nhs-track-and-trace-system-not-expected-to-be-operating-fully-until-september-coronavirus
blimey, we really don't do some of this big scale organisation stuff that well/quickly/efficiently
This is a Serco project.
Just read the article & I cant see where it mentions a date for the app.
It does say that they don’t expect the system to be operating at a world class level until Sept/Oct.
Possible I’ve missed something though.
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Cf
Global Moderator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 8089
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #2731 on:
June 04, 2020, 08:16:07 PM »
Quote from: jakally on June 04, 2020, 07:38:37 PM
Quote from: TightEnd on June 04, 2020, 07:13:16 PM
NHS test-and-trace app 'not fully operational until September'
https://theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/04/nhs-track-and-trace-system-not-expected-to-be-operating-fully-until-september-coronavirus
blimey, we really don't do some of this big scale organisation stuff that well/quickly/efficiently
This is a Serco project.
Just read the article & I cant see where it mentions a date for the app.
It does say that they don’t expect the system to be operating at a world class level until Sept/Oct.
Possible I’ve missed something though.
It's already running at a world class level since June 1st. Boris said so.
Logged
Blue text
DungBeetle
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 4925
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #2732 on:
June 04, 2020, 08:29:59 PM »
Spain cooking the books?
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1268450736398098433?s=21
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kukushkin88
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #2733 on:
June 04, 2020, 09:24:56 PM »
Quote from: DungBeetle on June 04, 2020, 08:29:59 PM
Spain cooking the books?
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1268450736398098433?s=21
I’ve tweeted JBM for a clarification on it. I’ll let you know what he says.
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Pokerpops
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1431
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #2734 on:
June 05, 2020, 12:15:52 AM »
Quote from: kukushkin88 on June 04, 2020, 09:24:56 PM
Quote from: DungBeetle on June 04, 2020, 08:29:59 PM
Spain cooking the books?
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1268450736398098433?s=21
I’ve tweeted JBM for a clarification on it. I’ll let you know what he says.
Pretty clear in the series of tweets. Governments massage statistics is about as surprising as the Pope being Catholic.
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"More than at any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
kukushkin88
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #2735 on:
June 05, 2020, 09:40:56 AM »
Quote from: Pokerpops on June 05, 2020, 12:15:52 AM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on June 04, 2020, 09:24:56 PM
Quote from: DungBeetle on June 04, 2020, 08:29:59 PM
Spain cooking the books?
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1268450736398098433?s=21
I’ve tweeted JBM for a clarification on it. I’ll let you know what he says.
Pretty clear in the series of tweets. Governments massage statistics is about as surprising as the Pope being Catholic.
I agree (although we should all expect better), however, in this instance it seems the media and the anti U.K gov elements of the media, who have blown it up. If Spain are ultimately reporting accurate numbers, albeit measured over different intervals, doesn’t seem like a huge deal. The problem is people using it as a stick to beat the U.K gov. Hopefully people will base their criticisms on the more worthy metrics going forward, we’re still spoilt for choice on that front.
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jakally
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 2009
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #2736 on:
June 05, 2020, 11:13:05 AM »
Quote from: kukushkin88 on June 05, 2020, 09:40:56 AM
Quote from: Pokerpops on June 05, 2020, 12:15:52 AM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on June 04, 2020, 09:24:56 PM
Quote from: DungBeetle on June 04, 2020, 08:29:59 PM
Spain cooking the books?
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1268450736398098433?s=21
I’ve tweeted JBM for a clarification on it. I’ll let you know what he says.
Pretty clear in the series of tweets. Governments massage statistics is about as surprising as the Pope being Catholic.
I agree (although we should all expect better), however, in this instance it seems the media and the anti U.K gov elements of the media, who have blown it up. If Spain are ultimately reporting accurate numbers, albeit measured over different intervals, doesn’t seem like a huge deal. The problem is people using it as a stick to beat the U.K gov. Hopefully people will base their criticisms on the more worthy metrics going forward, we’re still spoilt for choice on that front.
I did see something that suggested some of the rural areas of Spain aren't reporting figures daily, which would be one decent excuse for going to weekly figures.
Cynical me links the lower reported figures with the first week that Spain wants to go front foot on tourism.
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kukushkin88
Hero Member
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Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #2737 on:
June 05, 2020, 11:16:54 AM »
Quote from: jakally on June 05, 2020, 11:13:05 AM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on June 05, 2020, 09:40:56 AM
Quote from: Pokerpops on June 05, 2020, 12:15:52 AM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on June 04, 2020, 09:24:56 PM
Quote from: DungBeetle on June 04, 2020, 08:29:59 PM
Spain cooking the books?
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1268450736398098433?s=21
I’ve tweeted JBM for a clarification on it. I’ll let you know what he says.
Pretty clear in the series of tweets. Governments massage statistics is about as surprising as the Pope being Catholic.
I agree (although we should all expect better), however, in this instance it seems the media and the anti U.K gov elements of the media, who have blown it up. If Spain are ultimately reporting accurate numbers, albeit measured over different intervals, doesn’t seem like a huge deal. The problem is people using it as a stick to beat the U.K gov. Hopefully people will base their criticisms on the more worthy metrics going forward, we’re still spoilt for choice on that front.
I did see something that suggested some of the rural areas of Spain aren't reporting figures daily, which would be one decent excuse for going to weekly figures.
Cynical me links the lower reported figures with the first week that Spain wants to go front foot on tourism.
I think cynical you has identified what is easily the most likely explanation for why they have done it.
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kukushkin88
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #2738 on:
June 05, 2020, 11:18:37 AM »
Some thoughts (won’t be news to any members of the Actuarial profession) on what caused the, as yet, unexplained UK deaths:
https://twitter.com/nickstripe_ons/status/1268823005305733125?s=21
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RickBFA
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 2001
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #2739 on:
June 05, 2020, 01:13:55 PM »
Quote from: Jon MW on June 04, 2020, 07:36:53 PM
Quote from: TightEnd on June 04, 2020, 07:17:06 PM
...
On the wtfside, another "oh look, that stable door is open where is my horse?" moment with the compulsory order to wear masks on public transport from 15th June, the prospect of which was something dismissed by the government/SAGE in April as an irrelevance
When public transport use was down by 80 to 90% how much difference do you think the 10-20% still using it wearing a mask would make?
The answer would still be a net positive effect, albeit a tiny one.
However, if they had introduced compulsory wearing a mask on public transport earlier, it could have lead to only a 50 or 60% reduction on public transport use because of people feeling safer going out.
Those 40-50% then using public transport might not bothered so much with social distancing, because everyone was wearing a mask so why would they need to.
The net effect could be a higher rate of transmission as a result of making mask use compulsory.
- is the "kind" of logic they had in mind.
As with other details in the epidemic response, just because something isn't appropriate at one point in time - it doesn't mean that it will never be appropriate at another point in time.
----
All that with the proviso though that the government response does seem to be getting more and more political and less and less 'science-y'
I’d not thought it through but that actually has some logic. Don’t think the Mayor of London has considered that either given his comments today.
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TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #2740 on:
June 06, 2020, 10:51:52 AM »
Excellent article, on wanting to give the government the benefit of the doubt, how Cummings saga broke that, and what was revealed about the government's general approach.
cliffs
Too many mistakes (over-promising & under-delivering on testing & tracing, quarantine & Parliamentary voting)
But the turning point was the decision to keep Dominic Cummings. The whole affair exposed arrogance, a lack of honesty & transparency, an emasculated Cabinet, a PM dependent on one adviser + prioritising Brexit over dealing with the virus
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/06/david-gauke-johnson-will-regret-not-requiring-cummings-resignation.html
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
Doobs
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 16579
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #2741 on:
June 06, 2020, 11:22:27 AM »
Quote from: kukushkin88 on June 05, 2020, 11:18:37 AM
Some thoughts (won’t be news to any members of the Actuarial profession) on what caused the, as yet, unexplained UK deaths:
https://twitter.com/nickstripe_ons/status/1268823005305733125?s=21
I think most of them have day jobs, so won't all of been following this.
It is a good thread. I think it has been very clear for a few weeks that the vast majority of these excess deaths are just undiagnosed Covid deaths, so we don't need to call them unexplained anymore.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Pokerpops
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1431
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #2742 on:
June 06, 2020, 11:43:11 AM »
Quote from: Doobs on June 06, 2020, 11:22:27 AM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on June 05, 2020, 11:18:37 AM
Some thoughts (won’t be news to any members of the Actuarial profession) on what caused the, as yet, unexplained UK deaths:
https://twitter.com/nickstripe_ons/status/1268823005305733125?s=21
I think most of them have day jobs, so won't all of been following this.
It is a good thread. I think it has been very clear for a few weeks that the vast majority of these excess deaths are just undiagnosed Covid deaths, so we don't need to call them unexplained anymore.
I caught an interview with Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter on WATO yesterday in which he suggested that comparing excess deaths on a short interval wasn’t necessarily helpful. Even though the vast majority can be linked to Covid.
Waiting so that we can compare a year’s worth seems sensible if we accept that at least some deaths over the last three months would have happened in the next six months.
He explained it a lot better than that
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"More than at any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
Doobs
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 16579
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #2743 on:
June 06, 2020, 11:52:11 AM »
Quote from: Pokerpops on June 06, 2020, 11:43:11 AM
Quote from: Doobs on June 06, 2020, 11:22:27 AM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on June 05, 2020, 11:18:37 AM
Some thoughts (won’t be news to any members of the Actuarial profession) on what caused the, as yet, unexplained UK deaths:
https://twitter.com/nickstripe_ons/status/1268823005305733125?s=21
I think most of them have day jobs, so won't all of been following this.
It is a good thread. I think it has been very clear for a few weeks that the vast majority of these excess deaths are just undiagnosed Covid deaths, so we don't need to call them unexplained anymore.
I caught an interview with Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter on WATO yesterday in which he suggested that comparing excess deaths on a short interval wasn’t necessarily helpful. Even though the vast majority can be linked to Covid.
Waiting so that we can compare a year’s worth seems sensible if we accept that at least some deaths over the last three months would have happened in the next six months.
He explained it a lot better than that
I should have been made clear that it is the vast majority of s
hort term
excess deaths were linked to Covid.
Whilst I accept some of the excess deaths would have happened in the next 6 months anyway, there have been papers that suggest that way more wouldn't have died in the next 6 months. It will be useful to look over a year, but we can't do that right now, so we have to go with what we see.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Doobs
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 16579
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #2744 on:
June 06, 2020, 11:57:32 AM »
I don't know if many saw this.
It is a difficult watch at times, but I thought she spoke really well in horrendous circumstances. I have been following this on and off, but her kids do seem like little stars.
As she says herself, Derek Draper isn't a typical case, the future health of some of the survivors may well be very compromised.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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