Full Tilt Poker Game #32839314173: Table Afterburner (6 max) - NL Hold'em - $0.50/$1 - 21:28:21 WET - 2013/06/17 [16:28:21 ET - 2013/06/17]
Seats: 6
Seat 1: Martin Klaeser ($108.25)
Seat 2: PrettyZ ($66.25)
Seat 3: s7eL ($102.55)
Seat 4: Lechmajster ($207.60)
Seat 5: promise320 ($244.10)
Seat 6: theGrooouuuch ($127.25)
PrettyZ posts the small blind of $0.50
s7eL posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to theGrooouuuch [
]
Lechmajster folds
promise320 raises to $3
theGrooouuuch calls $3
Martin Klaeser folds
PrettyZ folds
s7eL folds
*** FLOP *** [
] (Total Pot: $7.50, 2 Players)
promise320 bets $5.25
theGrooouuuch has 15 seconds left to act
theGrooouuuch calls $5.25
*** TURN *** [
] [
] (Total Pot: $18, 2 Players)
promise320 bets $12.60
theGrooouuuch has 15 seconds left to act
theGrooouuuch calls $12.60
*** RIVER *** [
] [
] (Total Pot: $43.20, 2 Players)
promise320 has 15 seconds left to act
promise320 bets $17
theGrooouuuch ?
The villain is a very sticky, quite technically poor reg who has only appeared over the last week or so, and displays very fishy tendencies. What do we think about our options on the river considering the fact that his sizing suggests a very depolarised value range which may not be strong enough to call a shove. That being said, he has barrelled 3 streets so the least he can have for value is KQ.
SO here are our options:
A) Call. He may not be able call a raise with a range which doesn't beat us, so maybe raising is just making his bluffs (if any) fold, and towning ourselves Vs. a strangely sized higher set on the river.
B) Move all in for $106 into $75.05 so he will be facing a $89.40 call into a pot of $164.45 (getting 1.84/1)
C) Min raise to $34 so he pretty much HAS to call any Kx and may curiously call some other random pairs he's shown up with (QQ/AJ) however implausible that may seem. He will be facing a $17 call into $92.05 (getting 5.41/1)
D) Make a medium sized raise to $48-70.
Thoughts? Any arguments about his range being very AK/KQ heavy here due to sizing? Happy to hear thoughts in terms of game theory and just what you think works in practise at this level since that is often more relevant than GTO stuff when we are playing at levels where the regs are fundamentally poor-ish.