Unusual bubble 18 man

[lucky_scrote]

Any experienced sng players want to shed some light on this? The short stack has been sat out for around half an hour and is guaranteed to bust next hand. Therefore if we fold we are ITM and also 2nd in chips. The CL has jammed about 10 hands in a row because he understands ICM and this scenario so assume his range his 100%.

PokerStars Hand #100581674800: Tournament #752437903, $27.78+$2.22 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level X (300/600) - 2013/06/26 6:51:52 WET [2013/06/26 1:51:52 ET]
Table '752437903 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: danistheking (6145 in chips)
Seat 2: young_star58 (390 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 3: Jake870 (13505 in chips)
Seat 5: mitata27 (3805 in chips)
Seat 9: hardroch D (3155 in chips)
danistheking: posts the ante 50
young_star58: posts the ante 50
Jake870: posts the ante 50
mitata27: posts the ante 50
hardroch D: posts the ante 50
hardroch D: posts small blind 300
danistheking: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to danistheking [ ]
young_star58: folds
Jake870: raises 12855 to 13455 and is all-in
mitata27: folds
hardroch D: folds
danistheking: ??

[corkeye]

Just fold itm.

No point in risking bubbling with your stack

[LOJ]

Just fold itm.

No point in risking bubbling with your stack

[theprawnidentity]

Yeh we probably have to fold for our ICM's, but in game I know i mash the call button soooo quickly.

[lucky_scrote]

Here's what happened.

He jammed instantly and knowing the UTG was going to bust next hand I knew I had a decision to make and that it might be a fold. I disconnected about 30 minutes previous and had no timebank and at the same time had some big decisions on other tables. By the time it came back I had about 3 seconds to act and panic called. Ok, it wasn't so much of a panic call, I knew it was close and the CL really is jamming ATC as he seems decent and has jammed approx 10 hands in a row.

QQ vs ATC has 80% equity so 20% of the time we bubble needlessly and the other 80% time we make the money with not just a great CL but an awesome chip distribution too.

I didn't have the time to think about this, I just knew it was close. I could be results orientated but I called and won and went on to win because I was then jamming most hands leaving everyone crippled because of ICM. I think if the other players are decent and will try to ladder (or they are tight) then the QQ is a call. If they aren't very good and don't understand ICM then it's not so critical to make the call and get a dominating chip lead.

Thoughts? Or am I thinking too far?

[Ironside]

i never play just too get my cash back i am always playing SNGs too win as thats where you make the money
if you pass this hand then you have too say your playing too gets HU with him having a massive CL so you have too
be very happy you can beat him HU with him having nearly all the chips

i snap but then i snap alot wider than QQ cause i hate passing chances too get chips as i am crap HU now i think

[SubZERO]

ICM obviously plays a huge factor here, however I think it looks pretty close at first glance

As you say QQ has 80% equity against ATC, so 80% of the time we double to a commanding chip lead with 12790 chips and 20% of the time we bubble

Before the the hand started your $EV was $126.5
If you call and win your $EV = $160
If you call and lose you $EV is obviously $0

If we fold our equity = $123

Calculating what happens when we call, 80% of the time our equity becomes $160, and 20% of the time is it 0$

Total $EV of calling = (0.8 * 160) + (0.2 * 0) = $128

So as I thought, its extremely close but we should call. In fact we should call with QQ+ only. JJ is a fold

[Young_gun]

Regardless ICM, i would prefer to snap with QQ, smashing most of his range here. But i play to win and not to cash although you could get outdrawn or coolered probs like 20% of the time(guess) the time you have more of a stack should give you a better chance to get all the chips. Also not always will you be in the same situation with someone shoving every hand so its impossible to pass up IMO

[Young_gun]

ICM obviously plays a huge factor here, however I think it looks pretty close at first glance

As you say QQ has 80% equity against ATC, so 80% of the time we double to a commanding chip lead with 12790 chips and 20% of the time we bubble

Before the the hand started your $EV was $126.5
If you call and win your $EV = $160
If you call and lose you $EV is obviously $0

If we fold our equity = $123

Calculating what happens when we call, 80% of the time our equity becomes $160, and 20% of the time is it 0$

Total $EV of calling = (0.8 * 160) + (0.2 * 0) = $128

So as I thought, its extremely close but we should call. In fact we should call with QQ+ only. JJ is a fold

Just read this i probs still call 10s+ probably not AKsuited though