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Poker Hand Analysis
100% results orientated spot
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Topic: 100% results orientated spot (Read 1491 times)
EvilPie
Hero Member
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Posts: 14253
100% results orientated spot
«
on:
February 16, 2010, 12:31:41 AM »
Is this ever a fold?
We've got 30k of 95k in play with 4 seats up for grabs. I obv snap call but should I have passed?
Seems stupid to even think about given that I'm so far ahead but losing this pot put me right back in the pack. I also lose the next hand with AK.
Can't help but think this is one of those keep out of the action spots. Obv win this and we're locked but we were locked anyway so should we switch off and go to bed?
http://www.holdemmanager.net
NL Holdem $800(BB) Poker Stars Game#39816477632
MOJOEX1 ($4,460)
EvilPie ($29,710)
obnoxious24 ($4,355)
cgarbin ($6,250)
jmoney7807 ($8,730)
dino1980 ($20,620)
mentatss ($10,775)
chrisal67 ($9,180)
ftcky ($1,420)
jmoney7807 antes $75
dino1980 antes $75
mentatss antes $75
chrisal67 antes $75
ftcky antes $75
MOJOEX1 antes $75
EvilPie antes $75
obnoxious24 antes $75
cgarbin antes $75
MOJOEX1 posts (SB) $400
EvilPie posts (BB) $800
Dealt to EvilPie
fold, fold,
jmoney7807 raises to $8,655 (AI)
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold,
EvilPie calls $7,855
FLOP ($18,385)
TURN ($18,385)
RIVER ($18,385)
jmoney7807 shows
(Pre 18%, Flop 85.7%, Turn 95.5%)
EvilPie shows
(Pre 82%, Flop 14.3%, Turn 4.5%)
jmoney7807 wins $18,385
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Motivational speeches at their best:
"Because thats what living is, the 6 inches in front of your face......" - Patrick Leonard - 10th May 2015
dino1980
Gamesmaster
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Posts: 2626
Re: 100% results orientated spot
«
Reply #1 on:
February 16, 2010, 12:38:22 AM »
Nah this is a call IMO, even though you have an above avg stack for when the bubble bursts you aren't in fold to advance mode quite yet as there are still nine left and only four seats (inside cut-off by three, five still to be knocked out to win seat). Win this pot and you're pretty much 100% lock and can fold to cash.
edit: Matt I plugged the numbers into a ICM nash calculator (which assumes everyone plays perfectly which they obv don't). According to that utg+2 should be pushing 16.3%, 77+ A2s+ A9o+ K9s+ KTo+ QTs+ and you can call with 5.9%, 88+ AJs+ AQo+
This confirms to me that i'm a nit and that i'm burniing money as i think i'm tank calling with QQ here and probs dumping JJ
«
Last Edit: February 16, 2010, 12:49:00 AM by dino1980
»
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gatso
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Let's go round again
Re: 100% results orientated spot
«
Reply #2 on:
February 16, 2010, 12:42:43 AM »
what dino said. def not a lock yet
and then don't play the ak next hand. I'm guessing it was against dino and he destroyed you with 2 random cards like he always does to me near the bubble in sats
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If you get to the yeasty clunge you've gone too far
dino1980
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Re: 100% results orientated spot
«
Reply #3 on:
February 16, 2010, 12:52:00 AM »
Quote from: gatso on February 16, 2010, 12:42:43 AM
what dino said. def not a lock yet
and then don't play the ak next hand. I'm guessing it was against dino and he destroyed you with 2 random cards like he always does to me near the bubble in sats
Sounds like me, apologies in advance for the next time i do it (shoving not calling I guess?) I actually have no clue as to what your stars name is (i'm guessing it's not close to your Blonde s/n) PM me if you want, or when i feel less lazy I guess i could do a forum search of your posts.
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gatso
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Let's go round again
Re: 100% results orientated spot
«
Reply #4 on:
February 16, 2010, 12:57:23 AM »
I may be exagerating somewhat. it's possible I've only ever played you twice on stars, not sure as my pt database has exploded
I'm still bitter about you taking me out of 2 sats on the bubble inside 5 minutes, the nightly $160ish and a wcoop I think
as I remember it you called with the bottom of your range, I'd shoved with the top of mine and you got lucky both times though this may well all be distorted in my mind due to the bitterness. would actually be interested to see if you've still got the hands, stars name is lalarina
thread hijack complete
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If you get to the yeasty clunge you've gone too far
pleno1
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Posts: 19107
Re: 100% results orientated spot
«
Reply #5 on:
February 16, 2010, 01:01:29 AM »
Quote from: gatso on February 16, 2010, 12:57:23 AM
hu4rollz
fyp
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Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
EvilPie
Hero Member
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Posts: 14253
Re: 100% results orientated spot
«
Reply #6 on:
February 16, 2010, 01:41:00 AM »
Quote from: dino1980 on February 16, 2010, 12:38:22 AM
Nah this is a call IMO, even though you have an above avg stack for when the bubble bursts you aren't in fold to advance mode quite yet as there are still nine left and only four seats (inside cut-off by three, five still to be knocked out to win seat). Win this pot and you're pretty much 100% lock and can fold to cash.
edit: Matt I plugged the numbers into a ICM nash calculator (which assumes everyone plays perfectly which they obv don't). According to that utg+2 should be pushing 16.3%, 77+ A2s+ A9o+ K9s+ KTo+ QTs+ and you can call with 5.9%, 88+ AJs+ AQo+
This confirms to me that i'm a nit and that i'm burniing money as i think i'm tank calling with QQ here and probs dumping JJ
Interesting to see what ICM says. I think I would've probably called with similar to yourself. I would definitely consider JJ marginal as I was more or less locked anyway and didn't need to do anything. Surprised to see 88 and AJs in there as calls.
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Motivational speeches at their best:
"Because thats what living is, the 6 inches in front of your face......" - Patrick Leonard - 10th May 2015
TheChipPrince
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Posts: 8718
Re: 100% results orientated spot
«
Reply #7 on:
February 16, 2010, 09:59:12 AM »
I think its a call Matt without stoving it, even with losing the hand we're still in decent shape.
Although I would have folded AK the next hand.
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RIP- TheChipPrince - $17,165
EvilPie
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Posts: 14253
Re: 100% results orientated spot
«
Reply #8 on:
February 16, 2010, 11:10:44 AM »
Quote from: TheChipPrince on February 16, 2010, 09:59:12 AM
I think its a call Matt without stoving it, even with losing the hand we're still in decent shape.
Although I would have folded AK the next hand.
AK was against short stack so not too bad. Problem was I reshoved and got called by a mid stack with a pair
I'll dig it out when I get home and post it.
I ended up finishing 5th for 10 bucks. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Motivational speeches at their best:
"Because thats what living is, the 6 inches in front of your face......" - Patrick Leonard - 10th May 2015
kinboshi
ROMANES EUNT DOMUS
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We go again.
Re: 100% results orientated spot
«
Reply #9 on:
February 16, 2010, 11:51:17 AM »
I'd probably fold JJ here, but calling with AA, KK and QQ.
«
Last Edit: February 16, 2010, 11:54:38 AM by kinboshi
»
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'The meme for blind faith secures its own perpetuation by the simple unconscious expedient of discouraging rational inquiry.'
GreekStein
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Posts: 20912
Re: 100% results orientated spot
«
Reply #10 on:
February 16, 2010, 01:30:58 PM »
With your stack I'm calling with 1010+. Let's get this shit done.
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