Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

http://www.gbgb.org.uk/resultsMeeting.aspx?id=144862

Railers are sinking in the sand at Yarmouth.

[Karabiner]

Rory McIlroy is a very skinny 9/4 best price this week for the SA Open considering he's playing with new clubs for the first time in public.

Complete change of manufacturer for woods, irons, wedges, a new make of putter and a different golf ball to that which he's been playing the last few years.

When he first switched to Nike stuff a few years ago he really struggled to adjust for a while.

There must be some value about..

[baldock92]

Talking of Rory McIlroy I read this interview with him this morning during breakfast, very interesting read in my opinion if you've got a spare 10 minutes or so.

http://www.independent.ie/sport/golf/paul-kimmage-meets-rory-mcilroy-the-truth-about-the-olympics-close-friendship-with-tiger-and-the-important-things-in-life-35349397.html

[arbboy]

t5 and t6 won every race so far this afternoon at both BAGS tracks.  Def looks wide at Crayford.  Not so sure about Sunderland.  Worth keeping an eye on.

[arbboy]

http://greyhoundbet.racingpost.com/#dog/race_id=1502894&r_date=2017-01-10&dog_id=504032

Who owns this dog which just shit up at 20/1 at Harlow on TV?  Must be a poker player surely?  Based at Towcester the dog.

[bergeroo]

A bet I really like in the opening round of matches in the African Nations Cup.

Anytime goalscorer Algeria vs Zimbabwe.

Faouzi Ghoulam  9/1 bet 356

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/africa-cup-of-nations/algeria-v-zimbabwe/anytime-goalscorer

Algeria are one of the favouries and Zimbabwe are possibly the worst side in the competition. It could be a tight group with goal difference a factor so you'd hope they wouldn't ease up if ahead in the match.

Algeria have a host of attacking talent including of course Mahrez and Slimani of Leicester. Curiously however, their first choice penalty taker is the left back, Faouzi Ghoulam of Napoli. Ghoulam has five goals in 21 games for Algeria including a couple from open play too. He seems solidly in the lineup having started the last three fixtures.

There was a recent argument over a penalty in an Algeria match and the coach came out and said Ghoulam is the first penalty taker. A wrinkle in that is that the coach of the team has now changed (as is the way in African football - this particular guy lasted two matches) - but with Ghoulam taking penalties for the national team for a couple of years, I'd hope he'd still be first taker, particularly after the public disagreement and statement.

https://mtnfootball.com/news/645566/Islam-Slimani-plays-down-penalty-controversy

----
The competition itself seems very wide open and I'm reluctant to bet on it outright. DR Congo was the team I was interested in but the injury to Bolasie is a killer for them. I may take an interest in the top scorer market. Anyone have any opinions?

[bergeroo]

price into now.  Will be watching if any other bookies price up without taking into consideration penalties. Match is on Sunday.

A bet I really like in the opening round of matches in the African Nations Cup.

Anytime goalscorer Algeria vs Zimbabwe.

Faouzi Ghoulam  9/1 bet 356

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/africa-cup-of-nations/algeria-v-zimbabwe/anytime-goalscorer

Algeria are one of the favouries and Zimbabwe are possibly the worst side in the competition. It could be a tight group with goal difference a factor so you'd hope they wouldn't ease up if ahead in the match.

Algeria have a host of attacking talent including of course Mahrez and Slimani of Leicester. Curiously however, their first choice penalty taker is the left back, Faouzi Ghoulam of Napoli. Ghoulam has five goals in 21 games for Algeria including a couple from open play too. He seems solidly in the lineup having started the last three fixtures.

There was a recent argument over a penalty in an Algeria match and the coach came out and said Ghoulam is the first penalty taker. A wrinkle in that is that the coach of the team has now changed (as is the way in African football - this particular guy lasted two matches) - but with Ghoulam taking penalties for the national team for a couple of years, I'd hope he'd still be first taker, particularly after the public disagreement and statement.

https://mtnfootball.com/news/645566/Islam-Slimani-plays-down-penalty-controversy

----
The competition itself seems very wide open and I'm reluctant to bet on it outright. DR Congo was the team I was interested in but the injury to Bolasie is a killer for them. I may take an interest in the top scorer market. Anyone have any opinions?

[TightEnd]

sorry i missed that, keep them coming

mahrez and slimani are both regular penalty takers, so he must be v good to beat those two to it!

[Horneris]

The competition itself seems very wide open and I'm reluctant to bet on it outright. DR Congo was the team I was interested in but the injury to Bolasie is a killer for them. I may take an interest in the top scorer market. Anyone have any opinions?

Hi mate,

I wrote this for a betting company. Some of it is exaggerated as one of the aims of it was to attract punters, but some of its okay. It probably isn't accurate in some cases.

I put it in its own thread as its long and boring: http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=67369.0

Cliffs: I like Senegal and am on big at 6/1. I like Burkina Faso and will be backing them in their group games. I like goals in Algeria games.

[4KSuited]

for the divisional round

Texans +16 at Patriots

Seattle +4.5 at Atlanta

Pitt +1.5 at KC (Pitt opened favourites)

GB +4.5 at Dallas

on the early lines, anything stand out please shout

I'm reluctant to do a lengthy analysis, since it might just expose my limited understanding of the game; however I have pored over the stats and recent form of the protagonists in the last 4 matchups. For full disclosure, I am also a long standing Hawks fan (still stunned after their last gasp Superbowl "loss"), but will not be backing them as their defensive line has looked weak in the final regular season games.

However, I do feel that both GB and Pittsburgh are good bets. The Cowboys & KC have both shown some frailty of late, whereas their respective visitors are both benefiting from winning momentum.

[Tal]

I went down to the Old Library in Tal Towers the other day and dusted off my well-worn copy of Mugpunting Maxim Miscellany

Chapter 8 understanding betting markets, highlighted two key maxims. These are:

1. There's never any value in the favourite because all the punters want to back them;
2. There's never any value in the most popular entrant because the punters want to back them.

But who needs rules?

Anyone think there might be value in the Patriots to win the Super Bowl at 7/4?

They have both a bye and a warm up game this weekend against Houston, then they are at home against the winner of whatever remains of the Chiefs and the Steelers beating each other up.

Betty Exchange has the Pats at 2.78. It's easy to say this is all a big walk in the park for Bill, Tom and the gang, but...well...they're favourites in the Super Bowl against anyone and they have been  out of sight while Aaron Rodgers has been launching satellites and LeVeon Bell has been buffering and then skipping through defenses.

This isn't a hedge, as we would still collect on the Falcons if they reach the Super Bowl and we could have a beautiful moment of winning whoever wins.

What do we think?

[arbboy]

I went down to the Old Library in Tal Towers the other day and dusted off my well-worn copy of Mugpunting Maxim Miscellany

Chapter 8 understanding betting markets, highlighted two key maxims. These are:

1. There's never any value in the favourite because all the punters want to back them;
2. There's never any value in the most popular entrant because the punters want to back them.

But who needs rules?

Anyone think there might be value in the Patriots to win the Super Bowl at 7/4?

They have both a bye and a warm up game this weekend against Houston, then they are at home against the winner of whatever remains of the Chiefs and the Steelers beating each other up.

Betty Exchange has the Pats at 2.78. It's easy to say this is all a big walk in the park for Bill, Tom and the gang, but...well...they're favourites in the Super Bowl against anyone and they have been  out of sight while Aaron Rodgers has been launching satellites and LeVeon Bell has been buffering and then skipping through defenses.

This isn't a hedge, as we would still collect on the Falcons if they reach the Super Bowl and we could have a beautiful moment of winning whoever wins.

What do we think?

Based on the 1/12 they are this weekend they will be just over 6/4 at the semi final stage.  which means they need to be shorter than 8/13 for the conf final and the superbowl matches overall for the 7/4 to be value.  Pit or KC going to be around a 4/1 shot whichever one goes through and the Pats will be 6/4 on the outrights at the conf final stages all other things being equal.  Which game is harder for the Pats?  Conf final or Superbowl?  They have to be shorter than 8/13 for the conf final because that is what home field alone is worth and they are clearly a better team than either KC or Pit (never mind the blow out edge they have resting 4th quarter potential over the coin flip other game).  Obviously Superbowl has no home field advantage.  Surely they will be 8/13 or shorter in the superbowl v anyone right ?   Therefore you would suggest the 7/4 is probably value.  

Disclaimer.  I know very little about the NFL other than the maths.  Favs in ante post markets are quite often over priced because of supply and demand of people willing to tie up huge chunks of money into markets for weeks/months on end.  Secondly you have American's team still in the donkfest attracting huge mug cash and big liabilities ante post to distort the market somewhat as well potentially.

[Tal]

I went down to the Old Library in Tal Towers the other day and dusted off my well-worn copy of Mugpunting Maxim Miscellany

Chapter 8 understanding betting markets, highlighted two key maxims. These are:

1. There's never any value in the favourite because all the punters want to back them;
2. There's never any value in the most popular entrant because the punters want to back them.

But who needs rules?

Anyone think there might be value in the Patriots to win the Super Bowl at 7/4?

They have both a bye and a warm up game this weekend against Houston, then they are at home against the winner of whatever remains of the Chiefs and the Steelers beating each other up.

Betty Exchange has the Pats at 2.78. It's easy to say this is all a big walk in the park for Bill, Tom and the gang, but...well...they're favourites in the Super Bowl against anyone and they have been  out of sight while Aaron Rodgers has been launching satellites and LeVeon Bell has been buffering and then skipping through defenses.

This isn't a hedge, as we would still collect on the Falcons if they reach the Super Bowl and we could have a beautiful moment of winning whoever wins.

What do we think?

Based on the 1/12 they are this weekend they will be just over 6/4 at the semi final stage.  which means they need to be shorter than 8/13 for the conf final and the superbowl matches overall for the 7/4 to be value.  Pit or KC going to be around a 4/1 shot whichever one goes through and the Pats will be 6/4 on the outrights at the conf final stages all other things being equal.  Which game is harder for the Pats?  Conf final or Superbowl?  They have to be shorter than 8/13 for the conf final because that is what home field alone is worth and they are clearly a better team than either KC or Pit (never mind the blow out edge they have resting 4th quarter potential over the coin flip other game).  Obviously Superbowl has no home field advantage.  Surely they will be 8/13 or shorter in the superbowl v anyone right ?   Therefore you would suggest the 7/4 is probably value.  

Disclaimer.  I know very little about the NFL other than the maths

At home in the conference final (the semi final), I would guess they'll be 5 point favourites, which is equivalent to about 1/2. You get about 3 for being at home and the Pats have one of the stronger home field edges, if memory serves. I might be being conservative there.

Dallas, Green Bay or Atlanta if they get there will all be underdogs and, against that trio, a price of 4/6 is not far off. That gets us to 1.71 if my maths is right.

Clearly, lots of fag packet mathsery there. Hence the question.

Tighty and other knowledgeable sorts, over to you.

[arbboy]

I went down to the Old Library in Tal Towers the other day and dusted off my well-worn copy of Mugpunting Maxim Miscellany

Chapter 8 understanding betting markets, highlighted two key maxims. These are:

1. There's never any value in the favourite because all the punters want to back them;
2. There's never any value in the most popular entrant because the punters want to back them.

But who needs rules?

Anyone think there might be value in the Patriots to win the Super Bowl at 7/4?

They have both a bye and a warm up game this weekend against Houston, then they are at home against the winner of whatever remains of the Chiefs and the Steelers beating each other up.

Betty Exchange has the Pats at 2.78. It's easy to say this is all a big walk in the park for Bill, Tom and the gang, but...well...they're favourites in the Super Bowl against anyone and they have been  out of sight while Aaron Rodgers has been launching satellites and LeVeon Bell has been buffering and then skipping through defenses.

This isn't a hedge, as we would still collect on the Falcons if they reach the Super Bowl and we could have a beautiful moment of winning whoever wins.

What do we think?

Based on the 1/12 they are this weekend they will be just over 6/4 at the semi final stage.  which means they need to be shorter than 8/13 for the conf final and the superbowl matches overall for the 7/4 to be value.  Pit or KC going to be around a 4/1 shot whichever one goes through and the Pats will be 6/4 on the outrights at the conf final stages all other things being equal.  Which game is harder for the Pats?  Conf final or Superbowl?  They have to be shorter than 8/13 for the conf final because that is what home field alone is worth and they are clearly a better team than either KC or Pit (never mind the blow out edge they have resting 4th quarter potential over the coin flip other game).  Obviously Superbowl has no home field advantage.  Surely they will be 8/13 or shorter in the superbowl v anyone right ?   Therefore you would suggest the 7/4 is probably value.  

Disclaimer.  I know very little about the NFL other than the maths

At home in the conference final (the semi final), I would guess they'll be 5 point favourites, which is equivalent to about 1/2. You get about 3 for being at home and the Pats have one of the stronger home field edges, if memory serves. I might be being conservative there.

Dallas, Green Bay or Atlanta if they get there will all be underdogs and, against that trio, a price of 4/6 is not far off. That gets us to 1.71 if my maths is right.

Clearly, lots of fag packet mathsery there. Hence the question.

Tighty and other knowledgeable sorts, over to you.

Looks a bet to me.  The lack of a tough bruising encounter (including this weeks blow out potentially) and plenty of rest relative to other teams just looks to favour the wager even more to me than just the maths.

[PokerBroker]

I wouldn't normally share anything from The S*n.  And as much i wish the old boy luck it would cause too much of a hooha if the courts actually agree that Liquidation of the company meant liquidation of the club. 

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/420418/a-punter-is-suing-coral-bookies-for-refusing-a-250000-payout-on-his-wager-that-rangers-would-be-relegated/