Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

Early days yet, you don't get an economy rate as impressive as his by being consistent

[sonour]

Had Netherlands at 33/1. Gutted

[aaron1867]

I will put up another bet for the Wednesday/Watford game.

Leon Best FGS at 7/1 in one place with Paddy.

Think this reps some decent value & the fact we may play 4-5-1 (4-3-3) might help his case here. Suggest £10.

[redarmi]

I am planning on having a proper go at the flat this year and have started looking at some of the allweather racing to get my eye back in properly and there appears to be a really good each way bet in the 305 at Southwell today.  Its an 8 runner race which gives us a decent start and I think we can realistically knock a couple out and just shrug if they manage to win.  There are two horses in the race that are trained by Ann Stokell and owned by Stephen Arnold.  There hasn't been any significant money for them and whilst they could go for a touch on one of them just before the race I am happy to take them on given the fact the trainer has only had one winner from nearly a hundred runners here.  Keep it dark is the third favourite but it is drawn 1.  I have noticed over the last few days that horses drawn one are just not finishing.  This includes a 1/2 favourite yesterday that finished 3rd of 5 and quite a few rags that showed early pace and then finished tailed off.  Over the last two days no horse drawn one has finished in the places.  It makes out market and if it wins or places we will get our money back by backing it next time when it will be underrated for what it has done.   That leaves us with Beacon Tarn, Shawktango, Flash City, Alpha Tauri and Prince of Passion.  Beacon Tarn looks a decent enough favourite but certainly nothing to get excited about and at around 5/2 its seems no value for a horse that finished 9th out of 10 over this trip here two runs back.  Its last race was clearly its best run yet but I don't really like backing horses to reproduce something that they haven't seemed capable of previously.  Alpha Tauri has tried 5f eight times and never won and only been placed twice and all of its wins barring one have come in selling company.  In this grade it is 1-18.  It did beat a few of these two races back in a pretty good effort but it was over 6f.  Certainly not without a chance but at 11/2 I can leave it.  Would probably take a chance if it drited to 8/1ish.   Flash City has won once in 33 attempts and seems to be a genuine 20-1 shot.  That leaves us with the two Derek Shaw runners.  Prince of Passion has been beaten twice by Alpha Tauri recently and I don't see how it can reverse those today unless it is a plot and there is no money to suggest that this is the case today.  That leaves us with the selection - Shawkantango - this horse has run at Southwell 15 times and won seven of them and placed in another three and won 10 time and placed 11 times out of 55 runs over the distance.  It seems a gift each way at 5/1 and I think it is that price because it has struggled at the start in its last few runs and can be a bit of a handful in general but I am inclined to take a chance at 5/1 and back it each way given its superior credentials to this lot.

[claypole]

Competition for top posting today. Love it Stu - on

[Doobs]

I am planning on having a proper go at the flat this year and have started looking at some of the allweather racing to get my eye back in properly and there appears to be a really good each way bet in the 305 at Southwell today.  Its an 8 runner race which gives us a decent start and I think we can realistically knock a couple out and just shrug if they manage to win.  There are two horses in the race that are trained by Ann Stokell and owned by Stephen Arnold.  There hasn't been any significant money for them and whilst they could go for a touch on one of them just before the race I am happy to take them on given the fact the trainer has only had one winner from nearly a hundred runners here.  Keep it dark is the third favourite but it is drawn 1.  I have noticed over the last few days that horses drawn one are just not finishing.  This includes a 1/2 favourite yesterday that finished 3rd of 5 and quite a few rags that showed early pace and then finished tailed off.  Over the last two days no horse drawn one has finished in the places.  It makes out market and if it wins or places we will get our money back by backing it next time when it will be underrated for what it has done.   That leaves us with Beacon Tarn, Shawktango, Flash City, Alpha Tauri and Prince of Passion.  Beacon Tarn looks a decent enough favourite but certainly nothing to get excited about and at around 5/2 its seems no value for a horse that finished 9th out of 10 over this trip here two runs back.  Its last race was clearly its best run yet but I don't really like backing horses to reproduce something that they haven't seemed capable of previously.  Alpha Tauri has tried 5f eight times and never won and only been placed twice and all of its wins barring one have come in selling company.  In this grade it is 1-18.  It did beat a few of these two races back in a pretty good effort but it was over 6f.  Certainly not without a chance but at 11/2 I can leave it.  Would probably take a chance if it drited to 8/1ish.   Flash City has won once in 33 attempts and seems to be a genuine 20-1 shot.  That leaves us with the two Derek Shaw runners.  Prince of Passion has been beaten twice by Alpha Tauri recently and I don't see how it can reverse those today unless it is a plot and there is no money to suggest that this is the case today.  That leaves us with the selection - Shawkantango - this horse has run at Southwell 15 times and won seven of them and placed in another three and won 10 time and placed 11 times out of 55 runs over the distance.  It seems a gift each way at 5/1 and I think it is that price because it has struggled at the start in its last few runs and can be a bit of a handful in general but I am inclined to take a chance at 5/1 and back it each way given its superior credentials to this lot.

Betfair is 6/1, 2.12 the place

for those not on

[horseplayer]

Hugh Taylor put up Beacon hence so short, certainly the one to beat old Shaw should run on well late to pick up some place money at least

gd lk

[Dubai]

Strange captaincy from Broad, not bowling Bopara seems a terrible decision, bowling Bresnan for more than 1 over seems terrible and Tredwell defo should have come off after the third over

[horseplayer]

Ravi got cold shoulder due to talking to kp on twitter?

[Dubai]

They are pretty close friends and KP invested in Ravis chicken shops so ridiculous if that's why

[gherkin]

Strange captaincy from Broad, not bowling Bopara seems a terrible decision, bowling Bresnan for more than 1 over seems terrible and Tredwell defo should have come off after the third over

Yeah very strange.  Also it seems no matter how good or bad Moneen Ali's over is at the start of the innings, he isn't going to bowl again (I'm pretty certain he hasn't bowled more than 1 over in any T20 game for England).  They have a "plan" and there seems no flexibility in it at all.

Will be interesting to see what they set the England O/U at - 160?

[Dubai]

Seems about right. Maybe touch higher if they get to 190+
Defo a preset plan, cricketers are really poor tactically generally- Ali should never be allowed to bowl an over for 4 runs with only 2 fielders out but teams so reluctant to take it on from the get go.

[DungBeetle]

They are pretty close friends and KP invested in Ravis chicken shops so ridiculous if that's why

Ravi runs some kind of chain like Chicken Spot?   A man of many talents.

[DungBeetle]

I can see England getting in a right mess chasing this

[Dubai]

Sams Chicken. He owns a couple of them