My starting table was very soft and were only 2 levels in.  Im in BB playing around 22k, from 15k stack.

UTG opens to 600 (playing 18k).  Bad player, doesnt seem to understand betting sizes or ranges at all but understands his hand and how to bet it.  Mid position flats (playing 14k, had been the most active player at table but clearly had a bit of game about it, and I make up in the BB with  .

Flop brings      I check first to act, UTG c-bets 600.  He had c-bet his pre flop raise amount twice before.  Once being with two overs and flush draw and once being with A high.  MP flats too, which got me thinking.  I decided to flat as potentially could be winning and a lot of implied with UTG.

Turn was an ok  but obv would have prefered another 6

UTG again bets 600 and MP calls. 

Do most people check raise here?  Confident we have the best hand now?

I decided to c/r to 1925 and both flatted again.  Now im certain MP has the flush draw and UTG has something like KQ, QJ or maybe nut flush draw (this only based on a hand he played earlier).

River is a brick,   .

Both check to me, is this a good enough spot to value bet?  Too thin to get called by worse?  If we do value bet how much?

Pot is now 9,475.

Deffo pass pre bud.

Wouldnt like to flat normally but seeing as UTG has limped this makes it an even more of a pass, incase he limp / raises.

Also AT doesnt play well 4 handed as your never going to be confident of winning on either an Ace high board, nor a 10 high board.

Once called, I def pass the turn.  I dont really want to call off 2k of my remianing 13k stack for 4 outs, and even then opponents may have a redraw.  I would rather pass and look to be first into pots and the agressor.  Once you have called I guess I call off the river here, although probably not too confident of being infront.

Dont get to down if people slate you on here, they're not all bad people and some of the best players in the country post on here. 

Another seed gone, Martinez Sanchez, who was 1/33 to win today has gone.

Rezai through, looked good winning 6:1 6:1

1st seed going down

Azarenka, seeded 10, who a lot were saying had an outside shot here is down 6:1 4:1 at moment and looking like heading out.

Any trades on the champions league?

Was tied up with the GUKPT at cov but managed to squeak a cheeky £800 from the champs league after making around £1200 from the playoff final.

Tad busy at mo but update proper figures later when I log into the account.

N. Petrova @ 11/1 1/4 point

eh?

Petrova currently 100s on BF? or is that meant to be Jankovic at 11s?

Sorry missed the 0 off, meant to be 110/1

Nice spot

Good post, i like the Djokovic value shout.

I don't have your imagination and cant really see past Rafael and Justine.

Just gona trade matches 

Rafa I cant see past either but I just think at 2/5 there is an excuse to swerve him.

As for Justine I only think she is so short because no one else stands out.  I dont think her price is reflective on her actual chances.

Possibly the worst tourney for betting in a long time but quite confident Rezai can give me a good sweat.

[Romanello big chippie]

http://blog.grosvenorukpokertour.com/

21 left

Romanello big chippie

Toby Lewis going well

Never seen anyone hit so many cards, was redic.

Set vs top two pair
Trip Aces vs a bluffer for 60k
TT vs QQ AIPF and spikes the ten
Flopped mid pair and rivered 2 pair vs flopped 2 pair

All big pots in space of two levels

I was going to do a bit write up but I forgot this starts tomorrow and not in the best of moods as just busted the GUKPT.

Anyway, after picking a 9/1 winner and a 7/1 finalist last year I thought i'd start with the Womens and also with a but on a confession.  I picked someone out a few weeks back and was going to post but forgot all about it.  This years comp is so different to last years.  Safina who got to the final is still struggling with her back issues and it seems to have had a knock on effect to her confidence.  She doesnt anything like her former self and the same can be said for last years winner Kuznetsova.  I wouldnt trust her at the moment to win one round let alone the tourney, so ive crossed them off straight away.

Serena on clay isnt a pretty site, however she could beat anyone but this is by far is least favourite service.  She is 6/1 and thats a reasonable price for her and being the top seed she does have a reasonable draw.  Justine Henin would be my choice until I saw her price.  She is best priced 5/2 and that has drifted from 2/1 best price 2 weeks ago.  For someone still on the come back trail I cant be backing her at that price.  She is seeded 22nd and I know you have to beat everyone to win the comp but she is stuck in the middle of the draw and will have a lot of tough matches.

The one im really interested in is Aravine Rezai.  Not many will have heard of her but I have mentioned her in a few previous tourney write ups as a wild outsider.  This girl hits the ball hardest on tour, bar none.  The way she gets her body through every shot is so impressive and there is simply no one that can handle her hitting .......... if it stays in.  Now sadly she won a comp 2 weeks back beating Venus Williams in the final and therefore her price has tumbled.  Skybet very kindly offered me £25 at 80/1 EW and another £25 @ 66/1 EW and ive just checked her price and am amazxed she is now 20/1 best price with Skybet and 888Sport.  She has quite a basic serve but importantly doesnt really bottle the 2nd serve like a lot of the female tennis players do.  She is solid on her shots and is monsterous of both wings.  I thing the win of Venus will be a big boost for her confidence and could see her going well.  She has an amazing draw in the bottom half.  She breeze into the 3rd round where she faces a tricky game against Nadia Petrova and then the winner plays Venus and hopefully Rezai could repeat her performance.  The one thing I havent mentioned is that she is French.  The French crowd are possibly the most unsporting of the 4 majors and simply wont stop cheering or the mexican wave till their ready too ....... and even then they give themselves an annoying clap after.  I think they would possibly stop this for Rezai and realy let her concentrate and they really could help get her over the line by getting on the back of her oppoents.

Of the other top players, Jankovic probably would be the most competition here.  She moves well on the clay and has a decent game but tends to all away at the majors.  Venus doesnt look overly coomfortable in the last few months on clay.  The other player who could possibly do well is Li Na @ 80/1 but I want to see how she starts off before backing her.

Womens:-

Rezai @ 80/1  1/2 point
Rezai @ 66/1 1/2 point
S. Williams @ 6/1 1 Point
N. Petrova @ 100/1 1/4 point


As for the mens, well everyone has their own opinion on Rafa but @ 2/5 I cant say im too interested.  Yes, he is incredibly good on Clay and should walk it but at 2/5 with his dodgy knees and other recent niggles im gonna try to get a bit priced outsider into the final.  Off the imediate names that come to mind, Roderling, Federer and Gulbis are all in the same quarter and then are joined by Tsonga in the same half.  Although Murray has a horrid opener he does have a very soft 1/4 although I would back him with anyone money at the French.  

Im going to have a little stab at Tsonga.  He is seeded 8 and has a pretty soft draw where he may face players like Robredo (past it), Garcia-Lopez (too inconsistent, prefers it quicker), and Youzhny (doesnt like clay).  Tsonga should get to the 1/4's to face the winner of the Murray section and then go on to face Federer or whoever knocks Federer out.  I wouldnt really fancy Tsonga chance against Fed but at 125/1 im willing to take the chance and then lay my stake back.

Novak Djokovic has the easiest draw of all the top seeds and is somehow still 20/1.  He may face Rafa in the semis but Novak has beaten Rafa before on clay and does seem to cause him problems.  Rafa also has a tough draw with Verdasco and Almagro in the same 1/4 of the draw.  Should they meet in the semis Novak could cause an upset and at 20/1 is worth a stab.

Mens:

Djokovic @ 20/1 2 Points
Tsonga @ 125/1 1 point EW

Busted with half hour left of day 1. Wiill do a report- pretty up and down day!!!

Flip better pls

What happened to the seat was it SOLD ?

Yeah Blatch good a v v good deal on it. $7000 via pm.

Keep your Nose out

Good luck Cos

Mr Ho, please use the DTD card-room for your next proposal. Unless you use Girgy, in which case please use Full Tilt

Seeing as I have 0 intention of playing a tournament for PaulHoUk how about I just withdraw the money to my card and put it behind the bar at the blonde bash?

Was gonna grim him anyway so I may as well be a liked grimmer.

I cannot condone that. However, grim Blatch and you are on

He who laughs last ........

GL Ralph

Ive gone with :-

Alvaro Queiros @ 50/1
Alejandro Canizares @ 100/1

Have a feeling Els my have a good week but cant be backing him at around 12/1

Sigh.

If someone can explain to me why Charltons price has cut please explain?  Not a great home record, best defender out injured, play off game and Swindons best striker back in the side.  Sometimes things make no sense which I suppose in a roundabout kind of way is a good thing.

Sadly Laid Charlton at average odds of evens and had to even it up at 1.92.

Charlton -3,080
Draw -3,081.31
Swindon -3,081.31