Tips for Tikay

[Ironside]

i am tight i would of traded out i am telling you free money is always good money for me

favourite 1st 2nd favourite 2nd

How much would you have made by trading out?

no idea i will off just layed off so i got my stake back and let it ride FTW so in essence i am getting a free bet but dont tell the camel he would kill me

Sounds very shrewd.

i used too do it all the time till camel rapped my knuckles about a year ago
now i just do it when i am getting a decent return

[the sicilian]

favourite into 1.31 on betfair for next race now

Is this a recommendation? Keen not to rebuff any nuggets.

Well if you have a Ladbrokes mobile account... You either make a tenner or convert your £25 in to a free bet.  Ofc really bad things could happen.

Is this all really + ev? backing 1.3 horses with a backdoor free bet that also may not win thus costing the original £25.. do we use the free bet for a proper bet?

yeah you bet on the top 2 horses 3rd horse just retired from blackpool beach too take up racing
so if the bookies are giving freebets if your horse comes 2nd in a 2 horse race by backing both you
are gtd a profit as long as you are planning on betting with them at another point

They do it with only 3 runners?  thought min was 4...didnt one of the bang favourites lose today?

[horseplayer]

worse bets than herrera to stay at 7/2 with skybet

shame no other firm have it priced up

Bilbao unlike most clubs have no need to sell for any less than the clause

[celtic]

i am tight i would of traded out i am telling you free money is always good money for me

favourite 1st 2nd favourite 2nd

How much would you have made by trading out?

no idea i will off just layed off so i got my stake back and let it ride FTW so in essence i am getting a free bet but dont tell the camel he would kill me

Sounds very shrewd.

i used too do it all the time till camel rapped my knuckles about a year ago
now i just do it when i am getting a decent return

This was kinda my point. How do you know you are getting a decent return, if you don't know how much you are getting?

[TightEnd]

Ironside, you aren't helping!

There is a 4 runner minimum, yes

Doobs can explain his maths and the EV of the free bets, Dean. Will be better than me cobbling it together!

[TightEnd]

the basis of it was copied onto the first post of the thread

"Say you had a £50 free bet.

If you back a 1/2 chance. Assume it has a 67% chance of winning, your expectated return is 0.67 x £25 = £16.67

If you back a 3/1 chance.  Assume it has a 25% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.25 x £150 = £37.50

If you back a 10/1 chance.  Assume it has a 9% chance of winning, your expected return is  0.09 x £500 = £45

If you back a 50/1 chance.  I think this is where the theory falls over.  A lot of 50/1 chances are 80/1 or so on Betfair, so chance of winning is only 0.0125.  So expected return =£2500 x0.0125 = £31.25, which is lower than the expected return on the 10/1 chance.

I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.

Do not back each way"

[the sicilian]

Ironside, you aren't helping!

There is a 4 runner minimum, yes

Doobs can explain his maths and the EV of the free bets, Dean. Will be better than me cobbling it together!

cheers..as confirmed ice cream cant figure it

[Spudy]

Couldn't help myself. Had to have £20 on Arsenal at 16's to win the Premiership at Boylesports. Ozil done, Pastore possible as well as Ba.

Man Utd look a shadow of the team they were with Sir Alex in charge.

Man City looked very very ordinary against Cardiff.

Liverpool will surely blow up at some point.

Chelsea look the main danger.

Any thoughts?

Agree that Chelsea have best chance of winning the league from what I have seen so far, they have some difficult fixtures coming up though so we will soon know.

[Ironside]

favourite into 1.31 on betfair for next race now

Is this a recommendation? Keen not to rebuff any nuggets.

Well if you have a Ladbrokes mobile account... You either make a tenner or convert your £25 in to a free bet.  Ofc really bad things could happen.

Is this all really + ev? backing 1.3 horses with a backdoor free bet that also may not win thus costing the original £25.. do we use the free bet for a proper bet?

yeah you bet on the top 2 horses 3rd horse just retired from blackpool beach too take up racing
so if the bookies are giving freebets if your horse comes 2nd in a 2 horse race by backing both you
are gtd a profit as long as you are planning on betting with them at another point

They do it with only 3 runners?  thought min was 4...didnt one of the bang favourites lose today?

it was an error doobs didnt know about the 4 horse minimum on WH but i will let him explain

[Doobs]

favourite into 1.31 on betfair for next race now

Is this a recommendation? Keen not to rebuff any nuggets.

Well if you have a Ladbrokes mobile account... You either make a tenner or convert your £25 in to a free bet.  Ofc really bad things could happen.

Is this all really + ev? backing 1.3 horses with a backdoor free bet that also may not win thus costing the original £25.. do we use the free bet for a proper bet?

yeah you bet on the top 2 horses 3rd horse just retired from blackpool beach too take up racing
so if the bookies are giving freebets if your horse comes 2nd in a 2 horse race by backing both you
are gtd a profit as long as you are planning on betting with them at another point

They do it with only 3 runners?  thought min was 4...didnt one of the bang favourites lose today?

it was an error doobs didnt know about the 4 horse minimum on WH but i will let him explain

Don't think there is much to explain more than was covered around 2pm.  They have offers on the mobile site that say t and c's apply, but I can't see them on the mobile.  Hence I didn't see that in the rules.  The bet would clearly be +EV if it met the conditons.  We could have put the bets on the other way round and we'd have been fine.  FWIW I got 8/13 about a 1/7 chance, wish all my fk ups were that +EV.  I think we still need to hear from Tikay because the t and c's talked about live racing on channel 4, so there may be a get out.

I backed another 3 winners that thread missed. I ran very well, thread ran very bad. 

Please stop all this talk of greening out, upsets Neil, and we like Neil here.

[Doobs]

Please tell me you followed me into backing Stenson Tikay!  Stricker currently joint 2nd, Garcia has gone a bit backwards, unfortunately Stenson 3 clear.

[tikay]

Sorry guys, been busy next door again, so missed the last few horses.

Not bothered about the 3 or 4 runner thing., mistakes happen, we've placed over 2,000 bets, bound to be a few misclicks.

Will check my T & C's on it late, bit busy right now.

[tikay]

Golf is rubbish for thread.  Keegan Bradley has just hit a 7 and Mickelson is well and truly gone.  C'mon Stricker.  Did you back Stenson off thread Tikay?

Fred is not on, but I am, yes. I got the hint earlier loud & clear! Thank you!

One of those days for Fred, it happens.

[horseplayer]

worse bets than herrera to stay at 7/2 with skybet

shame no other firm have it priced up

Bilbao unlike most clubs have no need to sell for any less than the clause

now evens

shame no other firm priced it up

[Omm]

Does anyone know how Crystal Palace are getting on for number of signings vs the rest, got them at 5-1 earlier, now they are odds on so I presume they r doing well?