Zoom 25nl Good hand when deep, now its getting sticky...

[jgcblack]

http://wt.ag/10SAZu3


We have  , I would normally 3bt this hand but with no reads on villain and exceptionally deep - only 4 or 5 of the 300 in play were deeper than $60.
However with this depth of stack I thought the best option preflop would be to peel, keep SPR massive and play a pair OOP, I'm not afraid of it, would just prefer to have initiative where its possible.

So we peel, with a super tight 14/11/1.5 in BB (over 500 hands) and he folds.

FLOP




We check, BTN cbets 1.30>1.75
This is really big at this stake - only a few players would be mindful of stacks here, knowing they need to be sizing bigger because of stacksize most of the time.  This cbetsize alone was enough to get the hairs on my neck paying attention.

We check raise to 4.10 and he's gotta call 2.8 into 7.15 IP, I expect him to peel almost everything.........

TURN
   (pretty bad card... imo)

This brings in plenty of draws, but makes a LOT of pair+draw hands easy... Obv brings in any flush draw, but we essentially block any 'mega draw' with the solo .

He really quickly raises...................... to 21.40.

So, pot is 36.65 and we have to call 16.1 into 36.65 with almost certainly the only set/ house draw - question is.. does he ever/ always pay us off for the other $61.04 if we call and donk shove all pairups?

I couldn't do the maths quickly enough in my head, getting a little confused with formulas and shortcuts and seeing the stars timer at 20 seconds.  In my head I came to the conclusion that I was getting close to the right price to call based on just the pot alone, but that it alone would be slightly -EV vs a reasonable range..
However that it would be close/ marginal to expect to stack the guy all the time... so maybe only 1/3.  Clearly that would make the call profitable but I just couldn't guestimate how close.

My reasoning on me having the only set is that I don't expect him to flat the flop with AA or 77 all the time (if ever when this deep)... he should almost never have 88 and I have the blocking most 'reasonable' combination drawing hands.

To me it just looks like J10cc or KQcc almost always.. unless he's just got  and wanted to 'see where he was'.



What do we think?

[WotRTheChances]

Dont really know why he has TJcc or KQcc always. Surely he can have pretty much every combo of Qxcc and Kxcc, like why can't he have K2cc? Just combos wise I wouldnt be saying his range is that narrow. It's probs pretty damn nutted in this spot, you can have all the flush combos in your range too, so seems unlikely he'll just be taking off as a bluff.

I can't imagine anyone raising A8/A7 or other 2-pair combos here for value, it's unlikely anyone would be raising AA here. I don't hate just folding here tbh.

[jgcblack]

Dont really know why he has TJcc or KQcc always. Surely he can have pretty much every combo of Qxcc and Kxcc, like why can't he have K2cc? Just combos wise I wouldnt be saying his range is that narrow. It's probs pretty damn nutted in this spot, you can have all the flush combos in your range too, so seems unlikely he'll just be taking off as a bluff.

I can't imagine anyone raising A8/A7 or other 2-pair combos here for value, it's unlikely anyone would be raising AA here. I don't hate just folding here tbh.

Sorry, I didn't mean to make it sound like ONLY JTcc and KQcc.... I just mean it feels like 'those' kinda hands.

i.e. I figure he has a K/Q/J flush here north of 90%...


thoughts?

[jgcblack]

Does everyone fold turn?

Anyone just sigh, call, jam pairups?

[jgcblack]

Bummmmmp

[jgcblack]

Bump...

cant believe everyone just folds here?
Or plays the whole hand how I did??