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Poker Hand Analysis
Live hand
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Topic: Live hand (Read 3796 times)
tteeeeee
Newbie
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Posts: 43
Live hand
«
on:
October 29, 2014, 09:57:41 AM »
Live Tournament fairly deep.
blinds 6k 12k
hero playing 160k villain playing 300k and is experienced player
7 players on table
Hero
mid pos opens to 30k folds round to villain in big blind who asks how much I'm playing behind then calls.
flop
Villian first to act then bets 50k
Is it a fold, shove or call ?? I was never expecting villain to bet here - expecting a check to me even with strong hands
Thoughts?
Thank you
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booder
Hero Member
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Posts: 12772
Lazy , Hazy days
Re: Live hand
«
Reply #1 on:
October 29, 2014, 10:49:23 AM »
Shove pre.
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Quote from: action man
im not speculating, either, but id have been pretty peeved if i missed the thread and i ended up getting clipped, kindly accepting a lift home.
In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends.
Martin Luther King Jr
tteeeeee
Newbie
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Posts: 43
Re: Live hand
«
Reply #2 on:
October 29, 2014, 10:52:47 AM »
average stack is 200k, still shove?
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Oxford_HRV
Sr. Member
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Posts: 644
Re: Live hand
«
Reply #3 on:
October 29, 2014, 11:05:23 AM »
i would prefer to shove pre flop! on this board i think it's feasible villain will be taking the lead with gutshots + overcard like A3/4 and pair hands weighted away from the jack like 5x and A2 and maybe anywhere up to 99's
your hand is pretty poor agaisnt that range
Board: Js5s2c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 36.27% 34.84% 1.43% { AcTc }
MP3 63.73% 62.30% 1.43% { 99-66, 44-33, A5s-A2s, 75s, 65s, 54s, A5o-A2o, 65o }
so you only got 35% equity here even if he is never betting a jack and most likely zero fold equity when you are all in for 80k more. i never see villain folding if you shove. it's a fold for sure, i dont think i would ever expect villain to b/f or to have complete air when he bets flop.
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To win at poker is to not have to play
Rexas
Hero Member
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Posts: 1963
Re: Live hand
«
Reply #4 on:
October 29, 2014, 12:00:11 PM »
Yh, the average stack is less important that you don't have many big blinds. A jam pre for me and a fold now, be very surprised to see him donk bet/fold for your remaining stack.
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Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
Pinchop73
Hero Member
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Posts: 1438
Re: Live hand
«
Reply #5 on:
October 29, 2014, 12:06:04 PM »
Ship pre because vs short stacks live players abs love a
Click to see full-size image.
+
«
Last Edit: October 29, 2014, 12:11:01 PM by Pinchop73
»
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First they came for the nits, and I did not speak out because I was not a nit
ActionDanS
Jr. Member
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Posts: 68
Re: Live hand
«
Reply #6 on:
October 29, 2014, 12:42:12 PM »
Ship pre seems ugly at ~15BB's if it's a soft field which it very often is live.
As played, fold
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Honeybadger
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1926
Re: Live hand
«
Reply #7 on:
October 29, 2014, 01:18:44 PM »
Quote from: ActionDanS on October 29, 2014, 12:42:12 PM
Ship pre seems ugly at ~15BB's if it's a soft field which it very often is live.
As played, fold
Hero has just over 13 BBs I think. If hero really wants to give himself the option to raise/fold then min-raising preflop is preferable, rather than 2.5x. I am not normally too fussed about tiny differences in opening sizes, and I believe that many MTT players think exact preflop sizing is much more important than it really is. However, with 13 BBs it is actually pretty important - that extra 0.5 BB is a substantial part of hero's stack.
Open jamming still much better though IMO. ATs is not really strong enough to want to induce a jam, but is too strong to raise/fold. If opening from the BTN/CO then min-raising (to call a jam, not to fold!) becomes at least somewhat interesting, although I would personally still prefer to just jam.
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arbboy
Hero Member
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Posts: 13285
Re: Live hand
«
Reply #8 on:
October 29, 2014, 04:12:43 PM »
You don't say if there are antes in the game. If the antes are 600 or 1000 (which they could easily be at this level) then it's the easiest shove pre ever. No antes i think the other players stack sizes come into play more and the pay out structure etc. I still think i am shoving this pre even with no antes.
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pleno1
Hero Member
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Posts: 19107
Re: Live hand
«
Reply #9 on:
October 29, 2014, 04:19:01 PM »
this is a shove
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Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
AlexMartin
spewtards r us
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 8045
rat+rabbiting society of herts- future champ
Re: Live hand
«
Reply #10 on:
October 29, 2014, 04:44:28 PM »
minraise or shove pre, as played its horrible but think im folding, just dont expect any folds.
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Honeybadger
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1926
Re: Live hand
«
Reply #11 on:
October 29, 2014, 05:00:49 PM »
Interested in what the tourney guys think about the merits of min-raising vs jamming
if you had this hand on the BTN
. Higher variance to raise/call obv, but is it likely to have a higher chipEV? I think I'd always just jam the BTN with ATs and 13 BBs, but wonder if raise/call is better...
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Rexas
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1963
Re: Live hand
«
Reply #12 on:
October 29, 2014, 05:14:16 PM »
I'd be very surprised if shoving was better than minraise calling from the button.
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Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
Rexas
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1963
Re: Live hand
«
Reply #13 on:
October 30, 2014, 02:44:02 AM »
Quote from: Rexas on October 29, 2014, 05:14:16 PM
I'd be very surprised if shoving was better than minraise calling from the button. EDIT assuming the blinds aren't too nitty, obvs some will only be jamming better and folding everything else :p
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Quote from: verndog158 on June 29, 2014, 07:49:39 PM
humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
Quote from: cambridgealex on November 04, 2014, 05:40:09 PM
I disrepectfully agree with Matt
rfgqqabc
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 5483
Re: Live hand
«
Reply #14 on:
October 30, 2014, 09:46:05 AM »
r/c ATs for 13bb on the button virtually always. Depending on the blinds I'd have concerns about long term balance and the like but in general yeah r/c > jam imo
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[21:05:17] Andrew W: you wasted a non spelling mistakepost?
[21:11:08] Patrick Leonard: oll
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