Thanks for the kind words Red.

Snap!!!

or for blondes mods to review the ip addy's of these 20 guests at 4am to see how many were from Gib, Malta, Dublin, Warrington, Stoke, Wigan, Harrow, Leeds and Barking among others.

would be much better if we could block all the ip's of every online bookmaker to the fred and nobody else

20 guests on fred at 4am?? Really?  Don't think i have ever seen 20 guests during the peak times in the day??  Is this the time the bookies £25k a year 'lol traders' sign in to check up on the action?  Come and join and sign up and tell us what you know.  We give plenty back to you FOC and you won't even lay us a bet you spineless weasels.

Where did 16 of the 20 guests go 5 mins after i posted this?  Surely your £25k a year night shift trading roles were feet up at 345am once the lakers game had started and you could carry on reading and catching up on fred??  Nothing else to do once the lakers game had started surely? 

Excellent reply arbboy.

Ty

For pure entertainment i would love the thread to be like you seem to want it.  It would bring in loads more 'casuals' who like a punt to view it which would be good for the site.  Everyone wanting to land 'touches' etc on their areas of specialism etc etc.

I worry about posting 'boring' stats/%/numbers like i did in my last post because i don't want the thread to become boring/number crunching etc for regular blonde guys/newies who just want to come on here and punt and might be put off by joining because of the high level of discussion so many of the posters on here can debate to.  The level/quality of content on this thread for the last 2 years is off the charts for something being totally free to use for everyone.  All the fred regs will know this but this thread literally has at least 10/15 people on it given info/discussion/maths/knowledge which the average joe punter would never be able to access under normal circumstances.  This can lead to some thinking they are not suitably qualified to add things to the thread and/or worry about looking silly or making an error.  There must be people out there who lurk and don't post for this reason and might have some great info to add to the thread due to their location/individual sporting knowledge etc.  I think the more people we can encourage to post the more the thread will be how adz wants it to be.  However, the thread is first and foremost about winning money long term and the reality of winning money sports betting long term is grinding numbers/stats/% etc etc.  I suppose what this shows is that there is nothing remotely interesting about sports betting for a living.

I know i have always followed it for the pros stuff like redarmi/dubai/doobs/ed gas/badbeat for the stats and odds compiling views/analysis and debates for the last 2 years but i am reading/posting for different reasons to the vast majority of people who read and just love punting win/lose or draw and don't have to rely on making money every week to pay the bills.  These guys can bring loads of info to the thread in their own ways which believe me are useful to any pro gambler.  Ant's passion for Palace is amazing and his level of detail of his analysis of a certain team (Palace) and south london non league football is great and it is a very specialist area.  There are numerous other guys with other sports too numerous to name but you get my drift.



 

I have sat fairly quietly the last few weeks and just watched as some stuff unfolds.

Got to say I think I fear TFT has lost its way a little.

The concept was, I believe, not just to make better punters, but share info on peoples specialist subjects, and I think we have drifted too far away from the latter in favour of blindly looking for best odds/special offers/money backs deals etc, that are slowly crushing Fred.

For example, over the weeks I am sure I have seen offers and bets placed on Hurricane Fly/MTOY/The New One and Our Conor, all in the same race.

Regardless of amounts and now matter how shrewd we are with the prices, It feels like we will out shrewd ourselves and make a small profit at best. Yet two people with proven horse race knowledge, at least, have come down with a strong enough opinion to opt for a single horse, and work to reduce any potential losses etc.

Sometimes I think we need to take a position in these markets and decide who we still think will win, bet accordingly, and then bet AROUND that, not just blindly max each offer and slowly erode our knowledge edge.

I can expand later but I think you get my gist and hope someone else has a view on this.

Adz

Understand this point to a certain extent and can see both sides of the argument.  Trouble is its like having a 6 sided dice and a 4 rolling in is offered at 6/1 by a firm.  You back it as its obviously the best bet in the race because the firm bet 4/1 each the other 5 outcomes and 6/1 the 4.  Then another firm goes 6/1 the 5 and 4/1 the other 5 outcomes and so on and so forth.  Eventually u have backed 4 of the 6 outcomes in the race all at 6/1 with 4 different firms (to use the CHurdle example Adz has used here) and it seems like we are no longer 'punting' in an old fashioned sense because we have backed more than half of the field.  However, in this example we still have a great bet as we have backed a truely priced 1/2 shot at 3/4 (i think my maths is correct here please feel free to correct me if i am wrong) so we have huge value much more than just backing one of the outcomes rather than all four.  Even if we were offered 7/1 on one of the outcomes of the throw instead of 4 lots of 6/1.  It's more boring/robotic but ultimately backing all 4 makes you more money long term and reduces your variance. Two things any professional gambler/investor would strive for. It's not sexy in the slightest but to those who like an old fashioned 'punt' and to be proved right that we back one horse in the race and 'we knew' etc etc when it wins aren't going to be fans of this approach.

I think the thread has different users from guys who bet for a living to those who are total rec punters who love learning about diff elements of sports betting and a load of semi serious punters inbetween with real specialist knowledge on certain sports.  Everyone has a different agenda for being on the thread and that's where these differences in opinions of how the thread should attack the game differ.  There isn't a right or wrong answer.

Only 10 levels online today? (description in lobby says so)

I am playing this as well and was thinking it was a mistake so surely the other day 1s will have to mirror this at the club?  This is going to make it a long day on sunday.

How much has taking best price on just about every market that Fred bets on been to the detriment of the project long term? 

I can't help but thing that the frugal nature of Fred has infact cost it a better chance to make money, what do others think? 

I don't have many restrictions in place and its not because I am handing cash hand over fist to the books but its because I play the game, as I see it as long as you play they will take action.  That means not hammerring X accounts just for bonuses and best odds. 

Further, Freds penchant just for backing singles only couldn't have helped.  I know it's been discussed before about rolling selections up and having some fun accas and Tikay said he'd do it but it seemed to last a day or two and he'd slip back to being the eternal nit. 

Incidentally, I know he's been rank rotten thus far but I think Whitlock is too big a price against Thornton.  I don't have the stats to back this up but I am pretty sure the records of players playing 2 games on one night is pretty horrendous, perhaps one of the "darts" lads could help substantiate that claim but its a gut feeling.

Ignore that now just went back to check the prices and seems to have been a bit of a move for Whitlcok compared to earlier when I first looked.  Still wouldn't  put anyone off if fancying a punt. 

could have been a good night to have a 'mug' super yankee on the darts draws!!!!!

Great tale from Power last year.  They decided to go up last of all the oddschecker firms on March Madness outrights (NCAA basketball finals) and went top price the fav 6/1 (most other firms were 9/2 or 5/1) i think in a 68 runner race having had the chance to see every US facing firms' prices and everyone else's prices on oddschecker so they deliberately went top price because they want to lay them you would assume.  What other reason would a betting firm deliberately go top price on their own on a massive global betting event after seeing everyone else's prices before they post their own???

No liquidity at all in the betfair market so you could never back and lay any bet of any size so they could never call you an arber as it was impossible to lock in any profit on their prices.  I open a new account with them and had the maximum on Louisville at 6/1.  Louisville win the 68 runner race.  Next week i try to place the 2nd bet on the account and the account is restricted to penny's.  

Speak to operator/trader whatever they call themselves and they say 'we dont wish to accommodate arbers and the like blah blah blah'.

The bottom line is these firm use the 'arber' line constantly to justify closing accounts even when it was totally impossible to 'arb' that bet anywhere in the world.  They choose to go top price in the world.  Nobody else did.  They saw everyone else's prices first yet when they do their dough on a massive global sporting event they basically cry, throw their toys out of the pram and take their football home with them and close your account.  The customer gets punished for doing nothing wrong but the ' lol clueless 'trader'' who chose to go 6/1 doesn't get sacked/a warning or anything and just carries on picking up his £25k a year salary whilst justifying his existence to his equally clueless £35k a year 'trading manager' by calling me 'an arber and i have closed his account' to save his own arse.

That's pretty much the reality of the vast majority of account closures.

Anyone know when he first round draw is done for the Minehead comp?
Is it staying as a free draw after every round?  Or does the first round draw dictate that the winner of game 1 plays the winner of game 2 etc?

Newton out of the prem league tonight with illness.. Thornton plays twice tonight and misses dublin later in March.  He is still potentially in the UK Open depending on how he feels tomorrow per the PDC website.

Just has a look and Wade is 25-1 for 1-2 1/2 and also for 1-2-3-4 1/4 with Sky. Not sure on his form though. Looks like Him and Bunting are the only ones in the top 10 betting not in prem league.

Doesn't look like there is a lot of money on bf but 25's seems abit off for Wade. Think I'll leave Wade unless he goes out to 28 or 33-1 for 1-2-3-4.

Wade is general 33/1 at most firms.  Wouldn't be taking 25/1.

Guys what do you think of Stephen Bunting for Uk Open, I was looking on Sky and they have him at 33/1 1-2 ew or at 28-1 1-2-3-4, After already winning a floor tournament and all his experience at the BDO surely an Open tournament like this is right up his street. He must be used to putting in a shift and by all accounts this tournament is quite heavy going.

Anyway I've had a little e/w investment for first 4. Just thought I'd put it out there.

Is this the same event that used to be at the Reebok in Bolton in late May/early June once the football season had finished?  'The FA cup of darts' with a totally unseeded draw or a totally new event as its from Minehead and on ITV sport rather than sky sports?

This

Yes it's moved from Bolton to Minehead and is earlier in the season. 

They have obviously fitted it in with Prem League in Exeter to get the 'South West' swing of the season over in one weekend with this event at mine head.  Bunting might be value as he will be 'rested' from not being involved on the Thurs night before the uk open starts on Friday.  Cant remember any of the 'majors' occurring during the prem league season before.

Guys what do you think of Stephen Bunting for Uk Open, I was looking on Sky and they have him at 33/1 1-2 ew or at 28-1 1-2-3-4, After already winning a floor tournament and all his experience at the BDO surely an Open tournament like this is right up his street. He must be used to putting in a shift and by all accounts this tournament is quite heavy going.

Anyway I've had a little e/w investment for first 4. Just thought I'd put it out there.

Is this the same event that used to be at the Reebok in Bolton in late May/early June once the football season had finished?  'The FA cup of darts' with a totally unseeded draw or a totally new event as its from Minehead and on ITV sport rather than sky sports?

[either]

Daniel Negreanu announced on a podcast yesterday that he and Phil Ivey are going to be taking bracelet bet action for the WSOP again.

The bet this year is even money on either Negreanu or Ivey to win a bracelet. You can bet either side directly with Negreanu. It’s for WSOP Vegas only.

Interestingly last year PKR offered markets on Ivey to win a bracelet at 11/10 Yes, 8/13 No while Negreanu was 7/4 Yes, 4/11 No.

Negreanu has already said that he is expecting to play around 30 events. I expect Ivey will play at least that – probably more. He tends to grind the $1K’s which Negreanu is likely to skip this year. The ‘Championship’ events this year are back at 10K so there is an expectation that field sizes for these will be down – sub 100 players for some of these.

Which side do we like? Will be a good series long sweat either way. I like an even money bet on a bracelet win.

If we want to get on then the good news is it’s unlikely that were going to get maxed…

If they both play 30+ events then surely evens they WILL win a bracelet is far too big given the fact they will play all the events with sub 200 runners in them.  IF the $1m one drop counts as well then surely they cant be much bigger than 20/1 to win that given last time it was $1m there was only 46 runners 2 years ago.  If we assume that to be the case then thats 10% likelyhood of a bracelet from just that event alone.  If you assume there are 10 events with less than 200 runners which they will prob be 50/1 for each then thats another 4% per event so that another 40%.  So that makes them even money (50%) just for those events in total before considering all the other bigger field events they can play.  Not sure exactly how much value it is maths wise but yes def looks the side to be on.

This maths grates a bit.  Chance of not winning in 10 events is 0.96^10 = .665; multiply by 0.9, makes 6/4 they don't win in these 11 events.  I think the maths is optimistic, as 4% feels high to me, and they aren't both going to play all 10 surely?   I might try something better later, but wouldn't be surprised if I ended up at around evens.  Ivey knows. 

I would prefer a better calc before commtting money on an even money shot over 4 months. 

Just for clarity i wasn't recommending a bet on the yes just that if you were interested it would seem hard to make a case for no at the prices.  Plus my calcs massively depend on the $1m onedrop being part of the bet which i assume it is.

[either]

Daniel Negreanu announced on a podcast yesterday that he and Phil Ivey are going to be taking bracelet bet action for the WSOP again.

The bet this year is even money on either Negreanu or Ivey to win a bracelet. You can bet either side directly with Negreanu. It’s for WSOP Vegas only.

Interestingly last year PKR offered markets on Ivey to win a bracelet at 11/10 Yes, 8/13 No while Negreanu was 7/4 Yes, 4/11 No.

Negreanu has already said that he is expecting to play around 30 events. I expect Ivey will play at least that – probably more. He tends to grind the $1K’s which Negreanu is likely to skip this year. The ‘Championship’ events this year are back at 10K so there is an expectation that field sizes for these will be down – sub 100 players for some of these.

Which side do we like? Will be a good series long sweat either way. I like an even money bet on a bracelet win.

If we want to get on then the good news is it’s unlikely that were going to get maxed…

If they both play 30+ events then surely evens they WILL win a bracelet is far too big given the fact they will play all the events with sub 200 runners in them.  IF the $1m one drop counts as well then surely they cant be much bigger than 20/1 to win that given last time it was $1m there was only 46 runners 2 years ago.  If we assume that to be the case then thats 10% likelyhood of a bracelet from just that event alone.  If you assume there are 10 events with less than 200 runners which they will prob be 50/1 for each then thats another 4% per event so that another 40%.  So that makes them even money (50%) just for those events in total before considering all the other bigger field events they can play.  Not sure exactly how much value it is maths wise but yes def looks the side to be on.