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Poker Hand Analysis
stealing from HJ
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Topic: stealing from HJ (Read 2134 times)
Ironside
Administrator
Hero Member
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Posts: 41796
stealing from HJ
«
on:
January 12, 2012, 05:12:16 AM »
we are in the money average stack is 40kish
about 40 players left
i attempt to steal from HJ and the bb shoves
if any of the other stacks shove its an easy fold but is it an auto call when the bb shoves?
PokerStars Hand #73703704487: Tournament #496751947, $4.00+$0.40 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXI (800/1600) - 2012/01/12 5:05:47 WET [2012/01/12 0:05:47 ET]
Table '496751947 43' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Ironside (61737 in chips)
Seat 3: LillThore (37005 in chips)
Seat 4: 2acesgt (67260 in chips)
Seat 5: leodos2 (33615 in chips)
Seat 6: RYKY75 (13978 in chips)
Seat 7: malaga21280 (42312 in chips)
Seat 8: Juziu_Detka (78759 in chips)
Seat 9: zigzappa (23077 in chips)
Ironside: posts the ante 200
LillThore: posts the ante 200
2acesgt: posts the ante 200
leodos2: posts the ante 200
RYKY75: posts the ante 200
malaga21280: posts the ante 200
Juziu_Detka: posts the ante 200
zigzappa: posts the ante 200
leodos2: posts small blind 800
RYKY75: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ironside [
]
malaga21280: folds
Juziu_Detka: folds
zigzappa: folds
Ironside: raises 1900 to 3500
LillThore: folds
2acesgt: folds
leodos2: folds
RYKY75: raises 10278 to 13778 and is all-in
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lend me a beer and I'll lend you my ear
JK
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 2571
Probably the worst player here
Re: stealing from HJ
«
Reply #1 on:
January 12, 2012, 06:47:32 AM »
Call
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peejaytwo
Sr. Member
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Posts: 452
Re: stealing from HJ
«
Reply #2 on:
January 12, 2012, 06:54:37 AM »
M/r + an odd amount of chips like 55 or w/e, no need to put in the extra 300.
Call this know and gl. Probably tighten up for 2 orbits after
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Solaris
Hero Member
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Posts: 1056
Re: stealing from HJ
«
Reply #3 on:
January 12, 2012, 06:58:49 AM »
Definite call.
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BulldozerD
Hero Member
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Posts: 1888
Re: stealing from HJ
«
Reply #4 on:
January 12, 2012, 07:56:46 AM »
Yeah call
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muckthenuts
Hero Member
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Posts: 1693
Re: stealing from HJ
«
Reply #5 on:
January 12, 2012, 12:03:50 PM »
To work out spots like this you need to figure out the required equity given the pot odds.
He's shoved for 13.7k into a pot of 20.6k. You have to call 10.2k. To figure out exactly what is breakeven you take the pot amount, add how much you need to call, then divide this number by how much you need to call.
So 13.7k + 10.2k = 23.9k
10.2/23.9 = 0.42.
So you need 42% vs his range to make this call breakeven.
You definitely have > 42% equity here so it's a profitable call. And to cut a long story short if you're ever getting 2:1 in a spot (like you are above) you can call any 2 cards.
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cambridgealex
Hero Member
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Posts: 14876
#lovethegame
Re: stealing from HJ
«
Reply #6 on:
January 12, 2012, 12:44:06 PM »
Quote from: muckthenuts on January 12, 2012, 12:03:50 PM
To work out spots like this you need to figure out the required equity given the pot odds.
He's shoved for 13.7k into a pot of 20.6k. You have to call 10.2k. To figure out exactly what is breakeven you take the pot amount, add how much you need to call, then divide this number by how much you need to call.
So 13.7k + 10.2k = 23.9k
10.2/23.9 = 0.42.
So you need 42% vs his range to make this call breakeven.
You definitely have > 42% equity here so it's a profitable call. And to cut a long story short if you're ever getting 2:1 in a spot (like you are above) you can call any 2 cards.
er he's never got more than 42% equity here?!
Even a range as wide as this only has 37%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.730% 37.24% 00.49% 487205400 6375260.00 { Q9s }
Hand 1: 62.270% 61.78% 00.49% 808244336 6375260.00 { 22+, A9s+, KTs+, QJs, A8o+, KJo+ }
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railtard1
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1852
Re: stealing from HJ
«
Reply #7 on:
January 12, 2012, 12:55:29 PM »
call 110% of the time.
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muckthenuts
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1693
Re: stealing from HJ
«
Reply #8 on:
January 12, 2012, 01:03:31 PM »
Woah yeah i got quite an important number mixed up lol.
it's 20.6 (whats in the pot) + 10.2 (what we need to call) = 30.8k
10.2k/30.8k = ~0.33
So you actually need 33% equity.
Hope that helps
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Mantis2
Probation
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Posts: 1
Re: stealing from HJ
«
Reply #9 on:
January 12, 2012, 01:18:33 PM »
I think that there is another way of looking at this.
Just because everyone says call, including one of the best MTT grinders in the country, I'm not so sure. What we need to remember is that each of these chips has an inherent value, and we can happily wait for a better spot where we have our opponents crushed and get a far better price, rather than, "calling off in a spot where we need to hit to win". A good friend once told me, "you cant spend equity".
I mean, personally, what I would do in this spot, is take a wholly irrelevant life example and draw the thinnest possible comparison, to never quite commit either way, but have fools think that I have. So here for example, its like when you are enjoying a beautiful steak from you favourite restaurant. You are quite full, but this is the best steak you have ever had, and you have 3 mouthfulls left. You could force it all in, thereby reducing your equity (or utility), of the overall meal, but having made sure you got it all. You could on the other hand just leave it, feeling contented right now with your position, waiting say 10 minutes, and then realising you have room for desert too. OK there was lost equity with the steak, but now we are going to devour our favourite cheesecake in a much better spot than the last bit of steak, thereby increasing our overall utility from the experience.
I am definitely a cheesecake man myself. Don't get me wrong, i like steak, but i prefer to get it all in with cheesecake, knowing that once its all in, we can enjoy the result more and the extra on the bill doesn't hurt at all. You could say the cheesecake paid for itself.
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DMorgan
Hero Member
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Posts: 4449
Re: stealing from HJ
«
Reply #10 on:
January 12, 2012, 01:24:15 PM »
Quote from: Mantis2 on January 12, 2012, 01:18:33 PM
I think that there is another way of looking at this.
Just because everyone says call, including one of the best MTT grinders in the country, I'm not so sure. What we need to remember is that each of these chips has an inherent value, and we can happily wait for a better spot where we have our opponents crushed and get a far better price, rather than, "calling off in a spot where we need to hit to win". A good friend once told me, "you cant spend equity".
I mean, personally, what I would do in this spot, is take a wholly irrelevant life example and draw the thinnest possible comparison, to never quite commit either way, but have fools think that I have. So here for example, its like when you are enjoying a beautiful steak from you favourite restaurant. You are quite full, but this is the best steak you have ever had, and you have 3 mouthfulls left. You could force it all in, thereby reducing your equity (or utility), of the overall meal, but having made sure you got it all. You could on the other hand just leave it, feeling contented right now with your position, waiting say 10 minutes, and then realising you have room for desert too. OK there was lost equity with the steak, but now we are going to devour our favourite cheesecake in a much better spot than the last bit of steak, thereby increasing our overall utility from the experience.
I am definitely a cheesecake man myself. Don't get me wrong, i like steak, but i prefer to get it all in with cheesecake, knowing that once its all in, we can enjoy the result more and the extra on the bill doesn't hurt at all. You could say the cheesecake paid for itself.
<3
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Quote from: Karabiner on May 24, 2014, 12:47:13 PM
Is Dan awake yet?
Solaris
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1056
Re: stealing from HJ
«
Reply #11 on:
January 12, 2012, 01:26:46 PM »
That is quite the first post...
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outragous76
Hero Member
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Posts: 13363
Yeah Bitch! ......... MAGNETS! owwwh!
Re: stealing from HJ
«
Reply #12 on:
January 12, 2012, 01:32:18 PM »
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".....and then I spent 2 hours talking with Stu which blew my mind.........."
cambridgealex
Hero Member
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Posts: 14876
#lovethegame
Re: stealing from HJ
«
Reply #13 on:
January 12, 2012, 02:12:55 PM »
wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii
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[X] 8 figure score
Ironside
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Hero Member
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Posts: 41796
Re: stealing from HJ
«
Reply #14 on:
January 12, 2012, 04:40:44 PM »
Thanks guys this was about the 5th spot like this last night, I called all 5 won 2 including this one where the guys pocket tens hit a 3rd on river to complete my straight
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lend me a beer and I'll lend you my ear
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