Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Tonji]

cheers nell, was looking so good. Forgotten how quick Viviani can be, it's been so long since he timed a sprint well!

[Tonji]

stage 3

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Short stage, but looks like an Ardennes one day race. I guess the key is how fast OGE attack the final climb to shred the sprinters. OGE have certainly penciled this stage. Also suspect Gilbert, plus at least 10 riders will have this stage in mind to nick an early stage win.

Really, not at all clear which way this could go. For now just an outsider, small EW punt on Grega Bole 40/1. I like the way CCC Sprandi Polkowice are looking to get in the mix early, not afraid off messing with the World Tour teams. Stage profile suits Bole & he's having a great year.

[Tonji]

Added Modolo at 33/1 EW for stage 3. Was involved in the final yesterday until he was nearly clipped into the barrier. The stage win in Turkey shows he can hang on in the climbs.

A few rumours have suggested Betancur may be approaching similar form of a few years ago. He's been off the beer & cut back on partying. The final 10 days could see a KOM charge from him. Taken 33/1 EW.

[Tonji]

Early signs Ulissi is looking to nick KOM points.

[Tonji]

Oh my Domenico Pozzovivo looked in a bad way after that crash.

[Longy]

Oh my Domenico Pozzovivo looked in a bad way after that crash.

Yeah looked terrible, hope he is ok. I wish the Italian TV coverage would stop showing it, pretty disturbing.

[nellberg]

any news on pozzivivo? masterclass from orica so far, couldn't back bling at 5/2 though. contador had his boys at the front all the way , bit early to be flogging them but less chance of a crash for him up front i guess

[Tonji]

SuzeCY ‏@festinagirl  9m9 minutes ago
Pozzo: cranio-facial trauma and a major lacerated wound to the face, alert focused & stable throughout.

Perhaps not quite as bad as it looked at the time, still extremely nasty.

[Tonji]

Modolo 181st today! hmmm not sure what happened there?

Grega Bole, 11th. Made the final, but not really in contention for top 3. Decent effort.

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Similar tomorrow, but a shorter run in to the finish.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/giro-ditalia-stage-4/winner

Thoughts anyone, need to find a spare hour later for a closer look.

[nellberg]

parcours look perfect for gilbert, but he cooked himself today in the breakaway so i'm ruling out him and ulissi. don't want to be guessing if bling or gerrans in the main orica man tomorrow, with both in top 3 of the betting  (extremely) speculative but betancur at 150/1 now they only have stage wins to chase? the short run-in should mean its a punchers day and not one for the sprinters

[Tonji]

parcours look perfect for gilbert, but he cooked himself today in the breakaway so i'm ruling out him and ulissi. don't want to be guessing if bling or gerrans in the main orica man tomorrow, with both in top 3 of the betting  (extremely) speculative but betancur at 150/1 now they only have stage wins to chase? the short run-in should mean its a punchers day and not one for the sprinters

I think OGE may go with Gerrans, but could be decided on the road.

I like your optimism for Betancur, (go KOM), but suspect he still needs the full week of racing, hoping he'll be smashing up the climbs in the final week.

Did have in mind Paolini, remember his stage win in 2013, attacking on a descent. But fear the climb could be too much a few years on. Hoping for bigger than 50/1.

Still pondering...

[cheapwetsuit]

I've gone for Battaglin and Paolini win only. So many options.

[Tonji]

GL nell & cws with todays bets, frankly I'm still pondering...

[Tonji]

GL nell & cws with todays bets, frankly I'm still pondering...

Leftfield pick, in case the GC riders decide to contest this stage, noticed Intxausti available at 250/1 on betty 

[Tonji]

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Love this area of Italy, many happy memories of a holiday back in the 90s

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& catching the wrong ferry to La Spezia one day, only to find no buses back to the campsite 10 miles away.