The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Woodsey]

Well much like the recent Barnier slide they can work out what it is likely to look like from the UK's red lines, it's going to look like EU-Canada. Which took several years to negotiate. With the exception of the US all non EU trade deals will be smaller than EU-UK so less likely to cause massive forecasting errors.

And subsequent deals with non EU countries?

What about them? They cannot be as attractive as the deals we would get as part of the EU as we are a less attractive market. The access the deals provide will be far less meaning the incentives countries have to offer good deals will also be reduced. They will also take a long time to negotiate and we simply don't have the manpower or expertise to perform many deals at once.

Well one thing is for sure, if we take such a negative mindset about what we can achieve we certainly won’t do it....

[Woodsey]

Already answered. I stand by my point, the derision towards experts is unedifying and has been so for three years, one of the worst parts of the political ppopulsim that has been a reaction to the financial crash, bankers excesses etc.

Well if they (and many other remainers) hadn’t behaved like such sanctimonious arseholes talking down to people during the whole debate, remain would probably have won, so it’s their fault in part.

That twatish attitude made the bed, now they need to lie in it.

[rfgqqabc]

Well much like the recent Barnier slide they can work out what it is likely to look like from the UK's red lines, it's going to look like EU-Canada. Which took several years to negotiate. With the exception of the US all non EU trade deals will be smaller than EU-UK so less likely to cause massive forecasting errors.

And subsequent deals with non EU countries?

What about them? They cannot be as attractive as the deals we would get as part of the EU as we are a less attractive market. The access the deals provide will be far less meaning the incentives countries have to offer good deals will also be reduced. They will also take a long time to negotiate and we simply don't have the manpower or expertise to perform many deals at once.

Well one thing is for sure, if we take such a negative mindset about what we can achieve we certainly won’t do it....

Who would you offer a better deal to as an outside party- 27 EU countries with 508m people or the population of the UK with 65m people.

[Woodsey]

Well much like the recent Barnier slide they can work out what it is likely to look like from the UK's red lines, it's going to look like EU-Canada. Which took several years to negotiate. With the exception of the US all non EU trade deals will be smaller than EU-UK so less likely to cause massive forecasting errors.

And subsequent deals with non EU countries?

What about them? They cannot be as attractive as the deals we would get as part of the EU as we are a less attractive market. The access the deals provide will be far less meaning the incentives countries have to offer good deals will also be reduced. They will also take a long time to negotiate and we simply don't have the manpower or expertise to perform many deals at once.

Well one thing is for sure, if we take such a negative mindset about what we can achieve we certainly won’t do it....

Who would you offer a better deal to as an outside party- 27 EU countries with 508m people or the population of the UK with 65m people.

Depends what they are offering.....

[rfgqqabc]

Well much like the recent Barnier slide they can work out what it is likely to look like from the UK's red lines, it's going to look like EU-Canada. Which took several years to negotiate. With the exception of the US all non EU trade deals will be smaller than EU-UK so less likely to cause massive forecasting errors.

And subsequent deals with non EU countries?

What about them? They cannot be as attractive as the deals we would get as part of the EU as we are a less attractive market. The access the deals provide will be far less meaning the incentives countries have to offer good deals will also be reduced. They will also take a long time to negotiate and we simply don't have the manpower or expertise to perform many deals at once.

Well one thing is for sure, if we take such a negative mindset about what we can achieve we certainly won’t do it....

Who would you offer a better deal to as an outside party- 27 EU countries with 508m people or the population of the UK with 65m people.

Depends what they are offering.....

8x the number of people? Maybe 5.5x when you factor in spending power?

[Woodsey]

Well much like the recent Barnier slide they can work out what it is likely to look like from the UK's red lines, it's going to look like EU-Canada. Which took several years to negotiate. With the exception of the US all non EU trade deals will be smaller than EU-UK so less likely to cause massive forecasting errors.

And subsequent deals with non EU countries?

What about them? They cannot be as attractive as the deals we would get as part of the EU as we are a less attractive market. The access the deals provide will be far less meaning the incentives countries have to offer good deals will also be reduced. They will also take a long time to negotiate and we simply don't have the manpower or expertise to perform many deals at once.

Well one thing is for sure, if we take such a negative mindset about what we can achieve we certainly won’t do it....

Who would you offer a better deal to as an outside party- 27 EU countries with 508m people or the population of the UK with 65m people.

Depends what they are offering.....

8x the number of people? Maybe 5.5x when you factor in spending power?

How many people are there in the rest of the world outside the EU?

[rfgqqabc]

Well much like the recent Barnier slide they can work out what it is likely to look like from the UK's red lines, it's going to look like EU-Canada. Which took several years to negotiate. With the exception of the US all non EU trade deals will be smaller than EU-UK so less likely to cause massive forecasting errors.

And subsequent deals with non EU countries?

What about them? They cannot be as attractive as the deals we would get as part of the EU as we are a less attractive market. The access the deals provide will be far less meaning the incentives countries have to offer good deals will also be reduced. They will also take a long time to negotiate and we simply don't have the manpower or expertise to perform many deals at once.

Well one thing is for sure, if we take such a negative mindset about what we can achieve we certainly won’t do it....

Who would you offer a better deal to as an outside party- 27 EU countries with 508m people or the population of the UK with 65m people.

Depends what they are offering.....

8x the number of people? Maybe 5.5x when you factor in spending power?

How many people are there in the rest of the world outside the EU?

So you agree the EU has more bargaining power as a collective?

[Woodsey]

Well much like the recent Barnier slide they can work out what it is likely to look like from the UK's red lines, it's going to look like EU-Canada. Which took several years to negotiate. With the exception of the US all non EU trade deals will be smaller than EU-UK so less likely to cause massive forecasting errors.

And subsequent deals with non EU countries?

What about them? They cannot be as attractive as the deals we would get as part of the EU as we are a less attractive market. The access the deals provide will be far less meaning the incentives countries have to offer good deals will also be reduced. They will also take a long time to negotiate and we simply don't have the manpower or expertise to perform many deals at once.

Well one thing is for sure, if we take such a negative mindset about what we can achieve we certainly won’t do it....

Who would you offer a better deal to as an outside party- 27 EU countries with 508m people or the population of the UK with 65m people.

Depends what they are offering.....

8x the number of people? Maybe 5.5x when you factor in spending power?

How many people are there in the rest of the world outside the EU?

So you agree the EU has more bargaining power as a collective?

I agree there is a huge market way bigger than the EU, once a deal with the EU is sorted.

[rfgqqabc]

Well much like the recent Barnier slide they can work out what it is likely to look like from the UK's red lines, it's going to look like EU-Canada. Which took several years to negotiate. With the exception of the US all non EU trade deals will be smaller than EU-UK so less likely to cause massive forecasting errors.

And subsequent deals with non EU countries?

What about them? They cannot be as attractive as the deals we would get as part of the EU as we are a less attractive market. The access the deals provide will be far less meaning the incentives countries have to offer good deals will also be reduced. They will also take a long time to negotiate and we simply don't have the manpower or expertise to perform many deals at once.

Well one thing is for sure, if we take such a negative mindset about what we can achieve we certainly won’t do it....

Who would you offer a better deal to as an outside party- 27 EU countries with 508m people or the population of the UK with 65m people.

Depends what they are offering.....

8x the number of people? Maybe 5.5x when you factor in spending power?

How many people are there in the rest of the world outside the EU?

So you agree the EU has more bargaining power as a collective?

I agree there is a huge market way bigger than the EU, once a deal with the EU is sorted.

I'm not disputing the RoW market is bigger, but we will clearly get a worse deal as we have less bargaining power. And we will get a somewhat poor deal with the EU who are at least mildly incentivisted to make leaving an unattractive option. Or at least not an attractive option.

We also have a long period of economic uncertainty whilst these deals are being sorted.

[Woodsey]

Let’s see what happens, we are playing the long game with this anyway, so a period of uncertainty was always going to happen, I have always accepted that.

[nirvana]

Already answered. I stand by my point, the derision towards experts is unedifying and has been so for three years, one of the worst parts of the political ppopulsim that has been a reaction to the financial crash, bankers excesses etc.

It's not derisive, per se, to judge that they are likely to be wrong and that many expert figures have a vested interest in pushing a singular perspective whether due to hubris or political bias.

I think the stats in the particular slide are meaningless when they discuss 'exposure'. At 4.2 % unemployment we have one of the lowest figures in the EU. Are we more exposed than France at 10%, Spain at 16%, Italy at 11% or lets just look at the EU average of 8.8%. What an incredible achievement for the European project.

If it wasn't for Germany and the German sweat shop, the Czech Republic  (and us of course)  the EU average would look even worse - really no idea why people think this is so successful from an economics perspective and something we should be scared of leaving.

On a wider note, some member states now have coalitions that include the most far right parties to govern since ze war, not sure why I mention this but Europe is more or less an ungovernable mess and leaving it doesn't fill me with any trepidation since we have a strong and stable government

[nirvana]

Well much like the recent Barnier slide they can work out what it is likely to look like from the UK's red lines, it's going to look like EU-Canada. Which took several years to negotiate. With the exception of the US all non EU trade deals will be smaller than EU-UK so less likely to cause massive forecasting errors.

And subsequent deals with non EU countries?

What about them? They cannot be as attractive as the deals we would get as part of the EU as we are a less attractive market. The access the deals provide will be far less meaning the incentives countries have to offer good deals will also be reduced. They will also take a long time to negotiate and we simply don't have the manpower or expertise to perform many deals at once.

Well one thing is for sure, if we take such a negative mindset about what we can achieve we certainly won’t do it....

Who would you offer a better deal to as an outside party- 27 EU countries with 508m people or the population of the UK with 65m people.

Depends what they are offering.....

8x the number of people? Maybe 5.5x when you factor in spending power?

How many people are there in the rest of the world outside the EU?

So you agree the EU has more bargaining power as a collective?

This isn't really true. If you are selling goods then a market of x is still attractive when compared with a market of 5.5x (where does this come from by the way ?) if x is a big number.

You need to factor in the inherent protectionist nature of the EU to understand attractiveness and then bargaining power.

[rfgqqabc]

Well much like the recent Barnier slide they can work out what it is likely to look like from the UK's red lines, it's going to look like EU-Canada. Which took several years to negotiate. With the exception of the US all non EU trade deals will be smaller than EU-UK so less likely to cause massive forecasting errors.

And subsequent deals with non EU countries?

What about them? They cannot be as attractive as the deals we would get as part of the EU as we are a less attractive market. The access the deals provide will be far less meaning the incentives countries have to offer good deals will also be reduced. They will also take a long time to negotiate and we simply don't have the manpower or expertise to perform many deals at once.

Well one thing is for sure, if we take such a negative mindset about what we can achieve we certainly won’t do it....

Who would you offer a better deal to as an outside party- 27 EU countries with 508m people or the population of the UK with 65m people.

Depends what they are offering.....

8x the number of people? Maybe 5.5x when you factor in spending power?

How many people are there in the rest of the world outside the EU?

So you agree the EU has more bargaining power as a collective?

This isn't really true. If you are selling goods then a market of x is still attractive when compared with a market of 5.5x (where does this come from by the way ?) if x is a big number.

You need to factor in the inherent protectionist nature of the EU to understand attractiveness and then bargaining power.

I just reduced the 8x population figure down some as 8x the spending power didn't feel accurate. Can you expand on the protectionist nature? Doesn't that also lead to us getting a worse deal with the EU also? a quick google lead me to believe its not particularly protectionist but we'd have to trust the experts again

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/08/14/the-eu-isnt-protectionist-its-one-of-the-most-open-economies-in-the-world/

[bobAlike]

Those parts of the UK that voted most strongly for Leave would be hurt disproportionately more by a hard Brexit with no trade deal, says University of Birmingham, City-Redi research institute

Click to see full-size image.

I took my son to an open day at Birmingham uni, he is looking to study Economics. The Professor who gave the lecture was arrogant, up is own arse and a truly horrible individual. He absolutely berated the people who voted leave and tried to make them look like idiots. Not what i would expect from a man in his position.

So given this research, doesn't he have a pretty sound case?

Like all statistics you can make them show what ever you want but that's not my point, he should be impartial in his position.

this is such a trite argument. you or anyone else will be doing very well indeed to make the statistics show that brexit is an economic + for the UK. its really not a case that "like all statistics you can make them show" whatever. Its one of the very worst aspects of the whole debate that the views of "experts" are derided simply because they are "experts" sometimes by people (not you, and not aimed at anyone on here) often with no qualifications whatsover

of course we know its about identity, sovereignty, being left behind and xenophobia in some quarters and not about economics (and some surveys show that a majority ofleavers think economic harm - even if it meant family members losing jobs- is a price worth paying)

So is it OK for people who didn't vote remain to be derided? There were stats from both sides of the argument were tweaked to show a 'plus' for staying or leaving and as much as you say not aimed at me or others it clearly is in the words you use. You are a remainer and i respect that, i don't agree with your views but I would never have derided you or anyone for their views. The remainers do have a Holier than thou attitude and that is just systematic of the world we live in and what needs changing. leaving the EU is the first step.

I, like many others on here are not experts, that is a given but many like me have enough world or life experience to understand that the EU is broken in many ways. It is plain to see to those who open their eyes. I understand that there is uncertainty in the road ahead but what is worse accepting things as they are or to try and forge a different path to try and make things better. The EU is made up of many different cultures, which in itself is great, but trying to make a Greek understand the importance paying taxes is akin to herding cats. Again i am not saying this is right, the point is that we are all very different and the EU doesn't work for everyone.

One thing i cant understand is why people don't want change? I suppose it's more comfortable wearing your old slippers than breaking in a new pair.

Peace

[RickBFA]

Is it okay to admire Boris Johnson just for today?

I promise it won't happen again.

 

That made me smile .

I was going to ask what people thought.

He’s a buffoon but it’s quite impressive to get someone smiling and laughing along with you whilst you insult them publicly.