Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

The Open Day One review

We only have one golfer left on the course, so time for a round up as we have 137 positions to deal with

The positions are

24-Sep   Doobs   Bet365   Jul-2014   Golf   The Open   Jordan Speith   100/1   0.3
11-Jul   doobs   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   mcdowell   28/1   30
11-Jul   doobs   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   kaymer   20/1   30
11-Jul   bigadz   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   ilonen   80/1   30
15-Jul   karabiner   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   Willetts   150/1   10
16-Jul   doubleup   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open top australian   Rumford   66/1   2
16-Jul   BigAdz   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   Jimenez   90/1   20
16-Jul   fred   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   McIlroy   22/1   30
16-Jul   doobs   betfred   20-Jul   golf   the open   D Johnson   40/1   20
16-Jul   doobs   betfred   20-Jul   golf   the open   J Walker   80/1   20
16-Jul   doobs   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   cabrera   66/1   20
16-Jul   doobs   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   bjorn   70/1   20
16-Jul   betting emporium   betfred   20-Jul   golf   Top 10 Finish - The Open Championship   kuchar   7/2   20
16-Jul   betting emporium   coral   20-Jul   golf   the open Top Irish Player   lowry   13/2   15
16-Jul   betting emporium   williamhill   20-Jul   golf   the open   furyk   60/1   20
16-Jul   betting emporium   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   fowler   40/1   20
16-Jul   betting emporium   Ladbrokes   20-Jul   golf   Phil Mickelson / Ernie Els / Bubba Watson   Els 3 ball   11/4   20
16-Jul   hector62   betfred   20-Jul   golf   the open to miss the cut   donald   12/5   20
16-Jul   rickbfa   betfred   20-Jul   golf   J.Furyk / D.Clarke / T.Watson   furyk 3 ball   10/11   22
16-Jul   Tal   coral   20-Jul   golf   Top GB & Ireland Player   lowry   25/1   20
16-Jul   doobs   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   matsuyama   55/1   20
16-Jul   bobby1   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   snedeker   66/1   10
16-Jul   bobby1   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   gallacher   80/1   10
16-Jul   bobby1   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   dufner   100/1   20
17-Jul   bobby1   ladbrokes   17-Jul   golf    John Singleton / Peter Uihlein / Marc Warren   3 ball betting    Singleton   9/2   20

In terms of the 3 balls for the first round, we had one win and two losers

The winner was

- Furyk -4, four shots ahead of Clarke and Tom Watson

The losers:

- Singleton +8, 9 shots behind Warren -1

- Els, who had a triple bogey on the first, hitting a child on the way and struggled to a 79


The big story of the first day was one we were on the right side of.

The first half of the draw went round in +27, and at the time of writing the second half of the draw is +92. No wind at all this morning and apparently playing a club longer this afternoon in only modest wind

So well done to the team who made sure the selections above were very much skewed towards earlier starters today/late starters tomorrow


Our tournament positions

McIlroy -6, clubhouse leader. is 9/2 favourite in running with Scott 5/1 second favourite

other morning beneficiaries:

Furyk -4
Fowler -3
Matsuyama -3
Jimmy Walker -3
Bjorn -2
Ilonen -2
Gallacher -2
D Johnson -1
Speith -1

Of the afternoon starters only one recorded a round without a birdie, and he's one of ours. Jason Dufner -3

Only Dufner, Adam Scott -4 and Shane Lowry -3 after 16 have made any impression on the leaderboard and as of now only 1 player on the course is in the top 40

We have Lowry top Irish, top GB and Irish, so that is encouraging too

Of the afternoon players in our selections

Kaymer +1
McDowell +2
Snedeker +2
Willett +2

are all creditable

Jimenez +3 slightly disappointing

Cabrera +4 this morning was a rare disappointment, as was Kuchar +1

Rumford +3 is seven shots off the top Australian position

Donald +1 (a missed cut bet) out this morning was ok for us i think. rarely threatened from what i saw
 

Tomorrow we are skewed towards afternoon starters, which suited the last forecast i saw which was wet and a bit windy first thing, drying up later

Just to give a snapshot of one market currently:

[TightEnd]

Just out of interest, what's the best way to make money out of Rory McIlroy's inevitable sophomore slump in the second round tomorrow?

You could back Jordan Speith at 9/4 in the 3 ball matchbet in McIlroy's group tomorrow?

@SLifeDaveJohn picks out his best bets for day two at the Open with Rory McIlroy a strong three-ball fancy

FWIW...

http://www.sportinglife.com/golf/news/article/585/9385701/open-championship-day-two-bets-rory-mcilroy-and-jason-dufner-to-shine

[RickBFA]

Just out of interest, what's the best way to make money out of Rory McIlroy's inevitable sophomore slump in the second round tomorrow?

You could back Jordan Speith at 9/4 in the 3 ball matchbet in McIlroy's group tomorrow?

@SLifeDaveJohn picks out his best bets for day two at the Open with Rory McIlroy a strong three-ball fancy

FWIW...

http://www.sportinglife.com/golf/news/article/585/9385701/open-championship-day-two-bets-rory-mcilroy-and-jason-dufner-to-shine

Yep, I'm not saying McIlroy will blow up, I was trying to think of a bet to meet cheapwetsuit's question.

[BigAdz]

I have no stats to hand, but as a Jordy fan I would be pretty convinced his second round is normally his best. Rory, after a good start, not so much. Been one of my regular paydays for a while now, in fact.

[TightEnd]

F1 bets

These are Peter's

GP Germany - race
Top 6 bet
Pick: Sergio Perez (MEX/Force India) 4.00

Total stake 5.00 GBP
Possible winnings 20.00 GBP

Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
German Grand Prix
Race Winner
   Rosberg, Nico    2/1    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 30.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 30.00


FRICS

The teams will not be running it, and have informed Charlie Whiting of this

ForceIndia doesn't run it anyway, so no problem there

I spoke to my F1 family member by text tonight who tells me that no FRICS is about 0.3-0.4 secs off lap times based off wind tunnel and Slverstone test configurations

He also points out that the major advantage of FRICS is that it improves handling around corners, and without it the tyres go off quicker. It might, at some circuits, mean an extra pit stop per race, but they are in the realms of the unknown until after this weekend, or at least FP1,2,3

We know Force India is already kind on its tyres, and frequently manages to get up the race order by one-stopping. Its unaffected by FRICS

Think my contention is that with a mid season rule change affecting the rest of the grid and not Force India there is possibly a price anomaly in the prices of both Force India drivers to podium. Obviously other factors are at play, but the grid behind Mercedes is quite congested time wise

if the gap from the teams in front to force india is reduced by c0.4 secs per lap thats a couple of places up the grid anyway

Hulkenberg 16/1 Perez 25/1 WH to podium

these can go down to me. small money only

18 Jul 2014 - German F1 Grand Prix - Podium Finish - Podium Finish

Sergio Perez @ 25/1

Stake : £5.00
Estimated Returns : £
130.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001029/F
Single

18 Jul 2014 - German F1 Grand Prix - Podium Finish - Podium Finish

Nico Hulkenberg @ 16/1

Stake : £5.00
Estimated Returns : £
85.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001030/F

[doubleup]

Here are the afternoon starters (with 3 ball price sorry to much hassle to remove) and score.

Might be some angles - obv with bad weather it is very likely that some of these prices will contract before they set foot on the course, but trading would mean losing the extra places on betfair.

btw I like Bronberg with his very late time at 9-1 EW for top scandi with beteverdayoftheyearunlessitsaleapyear

13:27   Jim Furyk (8/11)   -4
13:27   Darren Clarke (3)   E
13:27   Tom Watson (4)   1
13:38   Sergio Garcia (6/4)   -4
13:38   Rickie Fowler (15/8)   -3
13:38   Luke Donald (11/4)   1
13:54   Paul Casey (13/8)   2
13:54   Harris English (13/8)   E
13:54   Matt Every (3)   3
14:05   Henrik Stenson (6/4)   E
14:05   Tiger Woods (6/4)   -3
14:05   Angel Cabrera (4)   4
14:16   Charl Schwartzel (6/5)   -1
14:16   K J Choi (9/4)   E
14:16   Padraig Harrington (13/5)   2
14:27   Rory McIlroy (5/4)   -6
14:27   Jordan Spieth (9/4)   -1
14:27   Hideki Matsuyama (5/2)   -3
14:38   Dustin Johnson (13/8)   -1
14:38   Jimmy Walker (7/4)   -3
14:38   Ian Poulter (9/4)   1
14:49   Graeme McDowell (7/4)   2
14:49   Matt Kuchar (2)   1
14:49   Louis Oosthuizen (21/10)   -2
15:00   Stephen Gallacher (13/8)   -2
15:00   Hunter Mahan (15/8)   -1
15:00   Victor Dubuisson (5/2)   2
15:11   David Hearn (6/11)   -2
15:11   Todd Hamilton (7/2)   5
15:11   Nick Faldo (5)   4
15:22   Ryan Palmer (5/4)   2
15:22   Brett Rumford (5/2)   3
15:22   Tomohiro Kondo (3)   4
15:33   Marc Warren (8/13)   -1
15:33   Peter Uihlein (5/2)   5
15:33   John Singleton (7)   6
15:44   Kristoffer Broberg (4/6)   -2
15:44   Juvic Pagunsan (16/5)   4
15:44   Paul McKechnie (5)   4
15:55   Brian Harman (1)   E
15:55   Rhein Gibson (13/5)   E
15:55   Hyung-Tae Kim (10/3)   3
16:06   Yoshinobu Tsukada (6/4)   -3
16:06   Oscar Floren (15/8)   1
16:06   Chris Hanson (3)   9

[Karabiner]

I have no stats to hand, but as a Jordy fan I would be pretty convinced his second round is normally his best. Rory, after a good start, not so much. Been one of my regular paydays for a while now, in fact.

After-timing taken to a new level but I still loves ya Adz 

[BigAdz]

I have no stats to hand, but as a Jordy fan I would be pretty convinced his second round is normally his best. Rory, after a good start, not so much. Been one of my regular paydays for a while now, in fact.

After-timing taken to a new level but I still loves ya Adz 

Blimey, I hardly call laying an odds on shot taking it to a new level, but thanks for noticing.

[Junior Senior]

Thoughts on the 8/13 with Korale Chelsea to win any major trophy this season?
Surely it beats the maths if do probability of all odds for each trophy to win either?
Can't see mourhino not winning something this year and expect him to be tryin in all 4

[Doobs]

Thoughts on the 8/13 with Korale Chelsea to win any major trophy this season?
Surely it beats the maths if do probability of all odds for each trophy to win either?
Can't see mourhino not winning something this year and expect him to be tryin in all 4

Working on 2/1 Premier League, 7/1 Capital One cup, 6/1 FA Cup, 11/1 Champions League, he is about 5/6 to win something.  These prices were all from Betfair, but the Cup ones needed a bit of guesswork as spreads were quite big.

[Peter-27]

F1 bets

These are Peter's

GP Germany - race
Top 6 bet
Pick: Sergio Perez (MEX/Force India) 4.00

Total stake 5.00 GBP
Possible winnings 20.00 GBP

Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
German Grand Prix
Race Winner
   Rosberg, Nico    2/1    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 30.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 30.00


FRICS

The teams will not be running it, and have informed Charlie Whiting of this

ForceIndia doesn't run it anyway, so no problem there

I spoke to my F1 family member by text tonight who tells me that no FRICS is about 0.3-0.4 secs off lap times based off wind tunnel and Slverstone test configurations

He also points out that the major advantage of FRICS is that it improves handling around corners, and without it the tyres go off quicker. It might, at some circuits, mean an extra pit stop per race, but they are in the realms of the unknown until after this weekend, or at least FP1,2,3

We know Force India is already kind on its tyres, and frequently manages to get up the race order by one-stopping. Its unaffected by FRICS

Think my contention is that with a mid season rule change affecting the rest of the grid and not Force India there is possibly a price anomaly in the prices of both Force India drivers to podium. Obviously other factors are at play, but the grid behind Mercedes is quite congested time wise

if the gap from the teams in front to force india is reduced by c0.4 secs per lap thats a couple of places up the grid anyway

Hulkenberg 16/1 Perez 25/1 WH to podium

these can go down to me. small money only

18 Jul 2014 - German F1 Grand Prix - Podium Finish - Podium Finish

Sergio Perez @ 25/1

Stake : £5.00
Estimated Returns : £
130.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001029/F
Single

18 Jul 2014 - German F1 Grand Prix - Podium Finish - Podium Finish

Nico Hulkenberg @ 16/1

Stake : £5.00
Estimated Returns : £
85.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001030/F

May I ask who your F1 Family Member works for? The data I have says different to 0.3-0.4 seconds per lap, of course it is different team to team though. He is right that we are in a World of unknown until we get on track.

Good chance of a Force India podium this weekend, and as a Force India fan I very much hope you're right

[tikay]

MLB ‏@MLB

@Orioles Power surge throughout the lineup helped make the Baltimore Orioles the beasts of the AL East in the 1st half

http://m.mlb.com/video/v34581893/cruzs-power-highlights-first-half-for-the-os/?partnerId=as_mlb_20140717_28012286

We have £50 at 10.5-1, and they are 4 games clear of the division during the All Star break

What a cracking bet, & sweat, this is, Rich.

I know you rarely get comment, but the Daily Reports mentioning the Baseball situation are widely read & much appreciated by most of us.

£50 @ 19/2, mmmm, Orioles......

[tikay]

The Open Day One review

We only have one golfer left on the course, so time for a round up as we have 137 positions to deal with

The positions are

24-Sep   Doobs   Bet365   Jul-2014   Golf   The Open   Jordan Speith   100/1   0.3
11-Jul   doobs   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   mcdowell   28/1   30
11-Jul   doobs   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   kaymer   20/1   30
11-Jul   bigadz   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   ilonen   80/1   30
15-Jul   karabiner   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   Willetts   150/1   10
16-Jul   doubleup   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open top australian   Rumford   66/1   2
16-Jul   BigAdz   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   Jimenez   90/1   20
16-Jul   fred   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   McIlroy   22/1   30
16-Jul   doobs   betfred   20-Jul   golf   the open   D Johnson   40/1   20
16-Jul   doobs   betfred   20-Jul   golf   the open   J Walker   80/1   20
16-Jul   doobs   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   cabrera   66/1   20
16-Jul   doobs   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   bjorn   70/1   20
16-Jul   betting emporium   betfred   20-Jul   golf   Top 10 Finish - The Open Championship   kuchar   7/2   20
16-Jul   betting emporium   coral   20-Jul   golf   the open Top Irish Player   lowry   13/2   15
16-Jul   betting emporium   williamhill   20-Jul   golf   the open   furyk   60/1   20
16-Jul   betting emporium   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   fowler   40/1   20
16-Jul   betting emporium   Ladbrokes   20-Jul   golf   Phil Mickelson / Ernie Els / Bubba Watson   Els 3 ball   11/4   20
16-Jul   hector62   betfred   20-Jul   golf   the open to miss the cut   donald   12/5   20
16-Jul   rickbfa   betfred   20-Jul   golf   J.Furyk / D.Clarke / T.Watson   furyk 3 ball   10/11   22
16-Jul   Tal   coral   20-Jul   golf   Top GB & Ireland Player   lowry   25/1   20
16-Jul   doobs   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   matsuyama   55/1   20
16-Jul   bobby1   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   snedeker   66/1   10
16-Jul   bobby1   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   gallacher   80/1   10
16-Jul   bobby1   betfair sportsbook   20-Jul   golf   the open   dufner   100/1   20
17-Jul   bobby1   ladbrokes   17-Jul   golf    John Singleton / Peter Uihlein / Marc Warren   3 ball betting    Singleton   9/2   20

In terms of the 3 balls for the first round, we had one win and two losers

The winner was

- Furyk -4, four shots ahead of Clarke and Tom Watson

The losers:

- Singleton +8, 9 shots behind Warren -1

- Els, who had a triple bogey on the first, hitting a child on the way and struggled to a 79


The big story of the first day was one we were on the right side of.

The first half of the draw went round in +27, and at the time of writing the second half of the draw is +92. No wind at all this morning and apparently playing a club longer this afternoon in only modest wind

So well done to the team who made sure the selections above were very much skewed towards earlier starters today/late starters tomorrow


Our tournament positions

McIlroy -6, clubhouse leader. is 9/2 favourite in running with Scott 5/1 second favourite

other morning beneficiaries:

Furyk -4
Fowler -3
Matsuyama -3
Jimmy Walker -3
Bjorn -2
Ilonen -2
Gallacher -2
D Johnson -1
Speith -1

Of the afternoon starters only one recorded a round without a birdie, and he's one of ours. Jason Dufner -3

Only Dufner, Adam Scott -4 and Shane Lowry -3 after 16 have made any impression on the leaderboard and as of now only 1 player on the course is in the top 40

We have Lowry top Irish, top GB and Irish, so that is encouraging too

Of the afternoon players in our selections

Kaymer +1
McDowell +2
Snedeker +2
Willett +2

are all creditable

Jimenez +3 slightly disappointing

Cabrera +4 this morning was a rare disappointment, as was Kuchar +1

Rumford +3 is seven shots off the top Australian position

Donald +1 (a missed cut bet) out this morning was ok for us i think. rarely threatened from what i saw
 

Tomorrow we are skewed towards afternoon starters, which suited the last forecast i saw which was wet and a bit windy first thing, drying up later

Just to give a snapshot of one market currently:

Thanks Rich.

I think we have to be really pleased with our book at this stage, even more so that it was constructed logically. A good 3 day sweat now awaits.

[Tal]

MLB ‏@MLB

@Orioles Power surge throughout the lineup helped make the Baltimore Orioles the beasts of the AL East in the 1st half

http://m.mlb.com/video/v34581893/cruzs-power-highlights-first-half-for-the-os/?partnerId=as_mlb_20140717_28012286

We have £50 at 10.5-1, and they are 4 games clear of the division during the All Star break

What a cracking bet, & sweat, this is, Rich.

I know you rarely get comment, but the Daily Reports mentioning the Baseball situation are widely read & much appreciated by most of us.

£50 @ 19/2, mmmm, Orioles......

This is to win the division? Amazing stuff. Wouldn't it be lovely if it were with Stan James?

[BigAdz]

I know we have a decent portfolio already but to my eyes one price stands out after the first round.

Leader of the US FedEx cup rankings and 3 wins under his belt Jimmy Walker is 3 off the lead, is smack bang in the "good " day 2 tee times, and at 60s on betty worth a sneaky 5 er on the win market.

More than happy to be told it should be ew and its not so good on the terms etc, but when I see he is a bigger price than Lowry/Manessero etc, seems an out of line price.