Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Don't think fred ever got on for India to win the test series.  Sportingbet have gone 9/4, pretty much everyone else has held at 7/4 or 15/8.  Worth £40 if fred can get that much on with sportingbet?

hadn't forgotten this. bookmarked for thursday morning, see what pitch is uncovered at Lords.

9/4 should be solid for another 48 hours anyway

[Rubbish2407]

I don't put many bets up but I think I've found a cert.



Looking at Poults and his bag I'm pretty sure he's going to finish fourth!

Fill your boots.

[Tonji]

Valverde interviewed today:

“My goal remains the podium at the moment," he said. "Should we be able to gain some time and target something else, we won't rule it our and we won't stay content with what we got.
 
"I feel great, my legs are doing really well - I always say my body functions mostly by how I feel, and if the forecast is correct and good weather shows up for the remainder of the race, theoretically, I should be stronger with sun and good temperatures. I felt well in these last days, but those are conditions I don't like at all.
 
"After Liège, I only had five days of racing: three in the Route du Sud, then the Spanish Championships - if not improving it, my form should stay the same until the end of the Tour.
 
"There's still all the Alps, all the Pyrenees left... in short, all the big mountains, though not all hard stages, because we have already had some. Any stage could be good to gain or lose time.
 
"Leaving aside Wednesday and Thursday, which should be more suited for breakaways, we will have stages where anybody can 'collapse' and lose all chances. We'll try to attack, but always will always keep our minds cold - if one of our rivals is not weak, we won't do it. Attacking for the sake of attacking is nonsense. We must do it when we can hurt our rivals.
 
"Nibali? He's not unbeatable, of course, but he's proving to be really strong at the moment, and up to date he enjoyed weather conditions which suit him perfectly; he's the one who suffers the least with rain of all of us up-front.
 
"The rest, Porte, Pinot, Bardet - all of them up-and-coming youngsters who are doing really well - all of them are dangerous and worry us. I always feel responsible for my team's success, wherever I ride. But we will stay calm. We got through very important and difficult days so far in this Tour and our moment to feel more comfortable on the road and profit from it should come now. Let's hope it happens.”

The way I see it is if Valverde comes through the Alps later in the week in a similar position as of today. He'll feel more comfortable to attack or secure the podium spot in the Pyrenees. Biggest threat is likely from the French riders Pinot, Bardet & Peraud, all looking to grab the headlines in the French media. Van Garderen & Porte should also push on in the Alps, the long climbs should suit their style of riding.

Click to see full-size image.

Looking relaxed on the rest day.

[doubleup]

In all betting markets, pre-event some prices are going to shorten and some are going to drift. If you wait until Wednesday night (or whenever), then the market is going to adjust to whatever new info has come to light.

The unique point of the golf betting is that the value comes from favourable each-way terms.  Betting earlier must increase variance even if it is just as profitable.

Obviously there are reasons to bet early, but the debate is simply about the free money on offer from 7/8 places

[nirvana]

imo its a shame that has been allowed to happen.

In the nicest possible way, it's a slightly naïve view tho. There is literally zero chance this thread would not get steered down this path. I cannot believe Tikay or Rich would be silly enough to spend so much time cultivating something without a personal gain at the end of it. Nothing wrong with that imo - it's all pretty transparent.

[maccol]

imo its a shame that has been allowed to happen.

In the nicest possible way, it's a slightly naïve view tho. There is literally zero chance this thread would not get steered down this path. I cannot believe Tikay or Rich would be silly enough to spend so much time cultivating something without a personal gain at the end of it. Nothing wrong with that imo - it's all pretty transparent.
Really? Quite a cynical view imo.

[Tal]

imo its a shame that has been allowed to happen.

In the nicest possible way, it's a slightly naïve view tho. There is literally zero chance this thread would not get steered down this path. I cannot believe Tikay or Rich would be silly enough to spend so much time cultivating something without a personal gain at the end of it. Nothing wrong with that imo - it's all pretty transparent.

Do you get paid by the wind-up?

Is there some form of giant spoon company sponsorship deal you want to declare?

Say something nice. Go on, I dare you.

[Tal]

Thanks for the update, Tonji. Can we assume Valverde and his team have been focusing on staying out of trouble and plan to attack the mountains? Be nice to see the Movistar logo on the highlight reel

[nirvana]

imo its a shame that has been allowed to happen.

In the nicest possible way, it's a slightly naïve view tho. There is literally zero chance this thread would not get steered down this path. I cannot believe Tikay or Rich would be silly enough to spend so much time cultivating something without a personal gain at the end of it. Nothing wrong with that imo - it's all pretty transparent.

Do you get paid by the wind-up?

Is there some form of giant spoon company sponsorship deal you want to declare?

Say something nice. Go on, I dare you.

lol, I can only dream son

[TightEnd]

imo its a shame that has been allowed to happen.

In the nicest possible way, it's a slightly naïve view tho. There is literally zero chance this thread would not get steered down this path. I cannot believe Tikay or Rich would be silly enough to spend so much time cultivating something without a personal gain at the end of it. Nothing wrong with that imo - it's all pretty transparent.

Glenn

I can absolutely assure you that there is no personal gain from my involvement in this thread, tikay either apart of course from the money made on tips

Of course I enjoy doing things like the daily reports (though the lack of reaction to what in my statto nerdy world are works of art rankles sometimes), don't enjoy putting every bet in the spreadsheet so much

It is, in an environment where traffic on poker forums is a struggle (fewer people interested in poker, comparatively much more than previously posted in facebook groups, skype groups etc) an important thread for blonde so by extension there is a gain from that, yes

but personal gain? no. All (misguided) altruism. same for someone like Mere Novice, in spades.

[bobby1]

imo its a shame that has been allowed to happen.

In the nicest possible way, it's a slightly naïve view tho. There is literally zero chance this thread would not get steered down this path. I cannot believe Tikay or Rich would be silly enough to spend so much time cultivating something without a personal gain at the end of it. Nothing wrong with that imo - it's all pretty transparent.

If that was the case and Rich and Tony had decided to make it a subscription thread/ site and employed people from here as tipsters  with a kick back from their subs and were getting the lot I would be over the moon. Not sure that's the case tho is it?

Can I get back to you Rob please, I just have something to crack on with.

[nirvana]

imo its a shame that has been allowed to happen.

In the nicest possible way, it's a slightly naïve view tho. There is literally zero chance this thread would not get steered down this path. I cannot believe Tikay or Rich would be silly enough to spend so much time cultivating something without a personal gain at the end of it. Nothing wrong with that imo - it's all pretty transparent.

Glenn

I can absolutely assure you that there is no personal gain from my involvement in this thread, tikay either apart of course from the money made on tips

Of course I enjoy doing things like the daily reports (though the lack of reaction to what in my statto nerdy world are works of art rankles sometimes), don't enjoy putting every bet in the spreadsheet so much

It is, in an environment where traffic on poker forums is a struggle (fewer people interested in poker, comparatively much more than previously posted in facebook groups, skype groups etc) an important thread for blonde so by extension there is a gain from that, yes

but personal gain? no. All (misguided) altruism. same for someone like Mere Novice, in spades.

I'm obv talking in a very broad sense and it certainly isn't a dig. I think it would be quite ridiculous to do otherwise.

[nirvana]

imo its a shame that has been allowed to happen.

In the nicest possible way, it's a slightly naïve view tho. There is literally zero chance this thread would not get steered down this path. I cannot believe Tikay or Rich would be silly enough to spend so much time cultivating something without a personal gain at the end of it. Nothing wrong with that imo - it's all pretty transparent.

If that was the case and Rich and Tony had decided to make it a subscription thread/ site and employed people from here as tipsters  with a kick back from their subs and were getting the lot I would be over the moon. Not sure that's the case tho is it?

Can I get back to you Rob please, I just have something to crack on with.

Subscriptions aren't the only way to make the effort worthwhile in related fields, related opportunities - it's really pretty natural and whilst I am a troll by nature I don't think this is the least bit controversial

[arbboy]

The bottom line is the vast majority of us love this thread.  It's like a little community of fellow minded punters.  Unlike most other threads of this nature is full of massive winning gamblers which is it's USP imho.  

However whilst enjoying it the vast majority are gaining financially from it either directly and/or indirectly.  There is nothing wrong with this in the slightest imo.  It drives huge traffic relatively to blonde as it's easily the biggest thread in the forum's history.  This clearly benefits the shareholders which in turn helps drive DTD's sponsorship which covers the wages of Tighty.  

If the vast majority of pro punters who post on here get the same financial gains as i do then they get offers from 'recs' to put bets on their account as a little thank you for posting advice for 'free' effectively.  We also get to read specialists in other fields than our own (several of whom you know personally) so i feel the information is more trusted than gaining it from other sources.  This can be anything from 'boring' arb/maths information to off the cuff info on a range of wacky sports.  Different readers like different parts of the thread but when you are in the game to make money to fund your lifestyle all of this info is good.

The 'recs' who don't punt for a living get an unreal source of information to help fuel their part time/casual sports betting desires and hopefully helps them lose less or win more.

I really appreciate being invited to post on blonde again after the blatch issue and i try to give as much to this thread as i take.  I take a lot (i took an immense amount from the first 18 months before i could post and give anything back) and i am very thankful it exists and i think we should all take a step back and realise how lucky we all are to have a one stop shop access to constant streams of information that provide us directly, but in the majority of cases indirectly, with financial gain.

[Tonji]

Thanks for the update, Tonji. Can we assume Valverde and his team have been focusing on staying out of trouble and plan to attack the mountains? Be nice to see the Movistar logo on the highlight reel

Staying out of trouble, certainly. Plans to attack? Well, I'd hazard a guess, they want to survive ok through the Alps & reassess the situation from Stage 16 onwards.