I'm reading Ciaffone's NL and PL HE and a sentance in it reminded me of this hand.
Deauville last Feb mid way through the first day of the EPT and I might as well have a big sign over my head saying "internet qualifier" but I have had some great cards and my stack has grown to about 23K. I have only shown down premium hands. I have position on DB who is sat 2 seats to my right. He limps UTG and I find pocket queens so I raise it up 4 or 5 x BB and it's passed round to DB who calls. The flop comes down with low raggy cards but 2 of them are spades. Cool, I'm expecting DB to check and I'll put a big bet in to try to take this hand down. But DB slowly and carefully counts his stack and pushes it all in saying 19850 or something like that. I have him slightly covered but this is a big decision for me.
I think now that it is probably possible to put DB on an exact hand. What do think he's got?
Okay, I'm gonna give this a crack without reading the other comments.
Firstly, it's tricky cos we don't the size of the blinds.
Assuming the blinds are around average for the two stacks, I'd put him on aces. He want all of your chips, but is doesn't want to give a free card to a potential flush draw.
He knows, as a tight player, if he check raises you, you might pass believing he has made a small set.
Also, he's gambling on you having an overpair and paying him off. His all-in doesn't look like it would beat a hand like QQ or JJ, and with the flush draw, it could be made to look like a semi-bluff which would receive a call.
If he's seen you play premium hands only, then he probably thinks that there is a good chance that you have JJ, QQ, or KK. Therefore, he reckons there's a good chance that his all-in will be called.
My only gripe is that it's the amateurs that tend to flatcall aces under the gun. The pros, who tend to play looser and more agressive, seem to raise with the hand expecting action.
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