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Poker Hand Analysis
Sunday $109 Rebuy FT...
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Topic: Sunday $109 Rebuy FT... (Read 2224 times)
youthnkzR
Hero Member
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Posts: 2406
Re: Sunday $109 Rebuy FT...
«
Reply #15 on:
February 13, 2014, 06:25:23 PM »
Guys a thinker and at this stack depth CIB with A high giving such an attractive price to peel probably isn't optimal. There's also some ICM factors if I decide to spaz out with pairs / hands with good equity vs AK which I 3b with which folds to a more 'committing sizing', would be pretty surprised if he didn't just rip AK tbh. The size of the pot after the 3b is pretty huge for him considering he just has A high.
That's just my thoughts. Would be interested in hearing your thoughts if u think otherwise.
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youthnkzR
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Posts: 2406
Re: Sunday $109 Rebuy FT...
«
Reply #16 on:
February 13, 2014, 06:49:44 PM »
Also, not calculated exactly but looking at it from a cEV perspective we only need ~33% to make a jam +cEV - which we have vs AK if our range consists of: AKs/o + AQs/o + all pairs we 3b. Therefore if we take his calling range into consideration, coupled with the fact that he's good enough to have some bluffs and we have a blocker to AA I say we're 100% getting that which would make it bad news for him with AK.
^ This isn't justification for jamming in the spot I was in though, looking back it was deffo not the best option. Just from a cEV perspective with no ICM.
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Junior Senior
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Posts: 4628
Re: Sunday $109 Rebuy FT...
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Reply #17 on:
February 13, 2014, 07:24:31 PM »
Tough spot yes and I think all options are viable to directly answer the question
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gs08bjohnson
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Posts: 59
Re: Sunday $109 Rebuy FT...
«
Reply #18 on:
February 14, 2014, 12:05:55 AM »
cib with AK does give him the option of folding vs OR though, who will only be jamming super strong, basically AA/KK and maybe a few stubborn QQ.
Also whilst he is giving you an attractive price preflop most of the hands you go ahead and peel will be Ax heavy and pot to stack will be so shallow that chip ev wise he will be committed to pretty much any flop. I don't see you folding too many of your value pairs to a jam that you wouldn't 5b rip so shouldnt change much icm wise here, if anything since he looks so strong you may be as inclined to hero fold to the 4b.
In game people don't always factor correctly for ICM - I mean I doubt many people have a true understanding of it without doing calculations for specific spots (I certainly don't) - So I wouldn't totally discount AK but for the reasons you gave I think you can certainly take some combos out of his range.
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willrobrobu
Sr. Member
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Posts: 649
Re: Sunday $109 Rebuy FT...
«
Reply #19 on:
February 14, 2014, 02:33:21 PM »
gross spot.
i hate these min 4bets. obv some people abso-min-bet with AA (note this!). ive seen this minraise as a 3b and 4b quite a lot lately from extralaggyscandis mainly with ace rag in position - anyone else noticed this? most fold to another decent sized raise pre which is what i tend to do now having been caught out flatting their minraise too often and struggling postflop. on this FT w payjump icm though i think i nit up and fold/maybe peel cos of the price and hope to flop crazy good. i used to feel like a pro at coming ninth on FTs as i didn't quite switch off from the rising aggro needed for 18-10players left but i've tightened up hugely 8 and 9 handed on FTs now.
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