Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

after the 5 day decs, who do we like for the (extremely open looking) champion hurdle next week please?

something e/w at a price?

http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/champion-hurdle/winner

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[maldini32]

Can we get on Andrea Belotti to be top scorer in Serie A. It's a 3 horse race between Dzeko, Higuain wave Belotti. Current standings:
Belotti - 22
Higuain - 19
Dzeko - 19

Belotti is unsurprisingly favourite but he is odds against (5/4), Higuain is 2/1 and Dzeko 9/2.

Higuain could and probably will be rested prior to Champions league games, Allegri has previous for resting his main striker before big European matches. Dzeko less likely to be rested.

Anyway recommend £80 @ 5/4 with pp or bfsb. I'd happily take evens too.

what about mertens 18 goals in 18 starts for the highest scoring team and now out of the champions league, also cant take their foot off the gas in the chase for champions league spots in the league whereas juve can soon when they win the league.
higuain only been rested once before champ league up to now

Fair question, I just felt 4 behind with 11 to go might just be out of his reach.

[Marky147]

Can we get on Andrea Belotti to be top scorer in Serie A. It's a 3 horse race between Dzeko, Higuain wave Belotti. Current standings:
Belotti - 22
Higuain - 19
Dzeko - 19

Belotti is unsurprisingly favourite but he is odds against (5/4), Higuain is 2/1 and Dzeko 9/2.

Higuain could and probably will be rested prior to Champions league games, Allegri has previous for resting his main striker before big European matches. Dzeko less likely to be rested.

Anyway recommend £80 @ 5/4 with pp or bfsb. I'd happily take evens too.

can't do either paddy or sportsbook i am afraid

thanks for the post,will see if anyone can help

Been getting loaded up with Tysabri before Cheltenham, but can help now.

Do we want £80 @ 5/4?

[TightEnd]

Can we get on Andrea Belotti to be top scorer in Serie A. It's a 3 horse race between Dzeko, Higuain wave Belotti. Current standings:
Belotti - 22
Higuain - 19
Dzeko - 19

Belotti is unsurprisingly favourite but he is odds against (5/4), Higuain is 2/1 and Dzeko 9/2.

Higuain could and probably will be rested prior to Champions league games, Allegri has previous for resting his main striker before big European matches. Dzeko less likely to be rested.

Anyway recommend £80 @ 5/4 with pp or bfsb. I'd happily take evens too.

can't do either paddy or sportsbook i am afraid

thanks for the post,will see if anyone can help

Been getting loaded up with Tysabri before Cheltenham, but can help now.

Do we want £80 @ 5/4?

as long as Maldini with happy with the view on Mertens?

Ty?

[Marky147]

Can we get on Andrea Belotti to be top scorer in Serie A. It's a 3 horse race between Dzeko, Higuain wave Belotti. Current standings:
Belotti - 22
Higuain - 19
Dzeko - 19

Belotti is unsurprisingly favourite but he is odds against (5/4), Higuain is 2/1 and Dzeko 9/2.

Higuain could and probably will be rested prior to Champions league games, Allegri has previous for resting his main striker before big European matches. Dzeko less likely to be rested.

Anyway recommend £80 @ 5/4 with pp or bfsb. I'd happily take evens too.

can't do either paddy or sportsbook i am afraid

thanks for the post,will see if anyone can help

Been getting loaded up with Tysabri before Cheltenham, but can help now.

Do we want £80 @ 5/4?

as long as Maldini with happy with the view on Mertens?

Ty?

I've chucked it on, and will keep any that isn't wanted.

[maldini32]

Can we get on Andrea Belotti to be top scorer in Serie A. It's a 3 horse race between Dzeko, Higuain wave Belotti. Current standings:
Belotti - 22
Higuain - 19
Dzeko - 19

Belotti is unsurprisingly favourite but he is odds against (5/4), Higuain is 2/1 and Dzeko 9/2.

Higuain could and probably will be rested prior to Champions league games, Allegri has previous for resting his main striker before big European matches. Dzeko less likely to be rested.

Anyway recommend £80 @ 5/4 with pp or bfsb. I'd happily take evens too.

can't do either paddy or sportsbook i am afraid

thanks for the post,will see if anyone can help

Been getting loaded up with Tysabri before Cheltenham, but can help now.

Do we want £80 @ 5/4?

as long as Maldini with happy with the view on Mertens?

Ty?

Yea happy with the bet.

[Marky147]

Happy days.

Booked - £80 @ 5/4 Belotti - Top GS Serie á

[exstream]

What about Kane top scorer premier league, tottenhams only forward really
Costa probably rested when Chelsea wrap up league and prone to being suspended now and then isn't he?
Lukaku in shit Everton side
Aguero isn't Man City's only striker any more
Sanchez falling out with squad
Ibra suspended
Kane already leading the chart, do a belotti kane double

[HutchGF]

we have a bet live in the champions league tonight

benfica v dortmund   dortmund to qualify   2.1   50

Dortmund 1/3 tonight and trailing 1-0 after the first leg in Portugal

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/borussia-dortmund-v-benfica/winner

Never in doubt, comfortable 4-0 win for Dortmund.

If Tikay could pm me his bank details over I'll send the funds.

[Doobs]

Before anyone else says it, yes Williams did impress at Barcelona today, but no we shouldn't be betting on them for the title.

We'll only really begin to see what teams can actually do on the final two days of testing when aero parts begin to hit the cars.

Plus, with how tightly packaged the Mercedes is at the rear, they should have this season in the bag already, assuming they can stay reliable.

If you bet this morning, you got 50/1 Massa to finish top 3.  Mercedes will likely be best, they should be reliable, but we don't bet on who is the most likely winner.  We bet on the things that are most value, and that just feels to be more likely to be value than not.  Even if he only has the 4th best car, people get injured, cars get disqualified etc.  Sure in most scenarios he gets left behind in the Championship and doesn't trouble the podium in 90% of races, but sometimes odd things happen.   

We remember nobody was saying Brawn have this years championshp tied up in January 2009, or "that was a great move Lewis" when he moved to Mercedes or that they'll all be driving turbos in a few years as Renault retired their way through the turn of the eighties.  If you do learn anything from this post, remember that the tails are the hardest part to model right in any statistical distribution.  Nobody is likely to be far out on Lewis's chance to win the championship, everybody could be miles off with Massa.

So when we bet Vettel at 14/1 to win the championship and just less than 3/1 to finish in the top 3, we don't do it thinking he is the most likely winner.  We do it thinking these odds are wrong, we did it because he looked to have more chance than 7% to win the championship and nobody is going to give us 3/1 top 3 any time soon.   And I don't know, but I wish I could have got a meaningful sum on Massa at 250/1 and a fifth first 3.   

The most likely scenario is still Mercedes is the best car on the grid in Australia, but we don't know the probability that will happen, and we are all just making educated guesses on what we see and what we have learned over the years.   Right now we are siitting pretty with Vettel and Bottas at much better prices than we can get now, in a couple of months we could be ripping up our tickets.       

[Chompy]

I'm convinced something is majorly wrong behind the scenes at Posh. Maybe worse than Arsenal. Most likely McCann.

There's a lot of quality in this squad but it's now nine defeats from the last 13 games, with the last two wins coming against ten-man Shrews (who would have won had they kept 11) and nine-man Rochdale (off-day).

Lee Angol...one goal all season, looking like he's petrified of making a mistake some of the time, and like he couldn't care less on other occasions...goes to Lincoln and scores a hat-trick in his first game. Yes it's a lower level and he's in a dominant team, but that isn't it.

Another blowout v Oxford wouldn't surprise at all. Have £25 on Oxford-Oxford @ 17-5 with Choral, £10 on Oxford o2.5 goals @ 9-2 with Billy, and £5 Oxford o3.5 goals @ 14-1 with Choral again.

[tikay]

Before anyone else says it, yes Williams did impress at Barcelona today, but no we shouldn't be betting on them for the title.

We'll only really begin to see what teams can actually do on the final two days of testing when aero parts begin to hit the cars.

Plus, with how tightly packaged the Mercedes is at the rear, they should have this season in the bag already, assuming they can stay reliable.

If you bet this morning, you got 50/1 Massa to finish top 3.  Mercedes will likely be best, they should be reliable, but we don't bet on who is the most likely winner. We bet on the things that are most value, and that just feels to be more likely to be value than not.  Even if he only has the 4th best car, people get injured, cars get disqualified etc.  Sure in most scenarios he gets left behind in the Championship and doesn't trouble the podium in 90% of races, but sometimes odd things happen.  

We remember nobody was saying Brawn have this years championshp tied up in January 2009, or "that was a great move Lewis" when he moved to Mercedes or that they'll all be driving turbos in a few years as Renault retired their way through the turn of the eighties.  If you do learn anything from this post, remember that the tails are the hardest part to model right in any statistical distribution.  Nobody is likely to be far out on Lewis's chance to win the championship, everybody could be miles off with Massa.

So when we bet Vettel at 14/1 to win the championship and just less than 3/1 to finish in the top 3, we don't do it thinking he is the most likely winner.  We do it thinking these odds are wrong, we did it because he looked to have more chance than 7% to win the championship and nobody is going to give us 3/1 top 3 any time soon.   And I don't know, but I wish I could have got a meaningful sum on Massa at 250/1 and a fifth first 3.    

The most likely scenario is still Mercedes is the best car on the grid in Australia, but we don't know the probability that will happen, and we are all just making educated guesses on what we see and what we have learned over the years.   Right now we are siitting pretty with Vettel and Bottas at much better prices than we can get now, in a couple of months we could be ripping up our tickets.      

Tremendous post, & profitable sports betting in a nutshell.

I've learned so much on this thread, but those emboldened lines are what have served us, & me, best.

I got into a debate Next Door on the topic, & when I suggested we look for value over winners, it did not go down well. Never mind.  

[tikay]

we have a bet live in the champions league tonight

benfica v dortmund   dortmund to qualify   2.1   50

Dortmund 1/3 tonight and trailing 1-0 after the first leg in Portugal

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/borussia-dortmund-v-benfica/winner

Never in doubt, comfortable 4-0 win for Dortmund.

If Tikay could pm me his bank details over I'll send the funds.

As you say, never in doubt, barely even a sweat.

Thanks very much - have sent you a PM with my Bank Details. 

[superwomble]

When does hitting the woodwork not mean hitting the woodwork? Victor being hauled over the coals this morning for their snide t&cs:

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[DungBeetle]

Bet victor is fair enough.  Having the stipulation of rebounding into play avoids all sorts of grey areas where the ball skims the post/crossbar.