Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Though, if Fred is our notional gambler, I assume a savvy gambler would be looking to take advantage of as many of these free equity opportunities as possible, too?

Yes, but as Fred is discovering, being a winning punterer means you get resticted and have difficulty getting bets on.

Free bets/enhanced odds/special offers are not available to winners, just ice creams.

Damn you Keith.

I got all excited when you said "Fred is a winning punter".

Then you spoilt it with the Ice Cream remark.

I think we should replace "Ice-Cream" with"sandwiches for the bats".

[Karabiner]

I suppose the counter to that would be Fred places a few bets purely for fun or as a New Tipster Welcome Bonus, so taking these little equity offers is just yinging that yang.

I hadn't considered that, though, and am interested to hear the vox populari.

Ooh, vox populi.......

FYP

[tigger37]

Definitely agree with you if it was for new customers only Red. That would be a great price to pay to aquire new accounts. The trouble for Hills is that most people taking the offer are either existing accounts, many of whom will be arbers, some of whom will be dormant customers rembering their login-details or their account number. It's really hard to measure how much of that is good business. In the shops you might reckon that 50% of activity is just arbers.

 That was my idea on the rugby thing Keith. I thought it was genuis at the time. I think 5 people got on as none of the other hundred or so who rang knew anything about rugby.

 On all of these it's NRNB so if Dynaste goes for the other race you are Ok.

 It's obviously free money to bet all of these and arb and it may be long-term better ev to take them and keep them, if we assume that Betfair is always right.

 Having said all that, if there was no Betfair I wouldn't walk more than 300 yards to a shop to bet either of these two.

 Interesting that HF has remained very strong on Betfair all day considering how many arbers have got on.

Obviously you are correct but I think it is almost certainly a +EV move for Hills.  To be honest I am amazed more firms dont lead with price marketing like this as it is smart and cost effective.  Even things like it being mentioned on this thread have value for Hills and they also will no doubt get the opportunity to have that wanker Graham Sharpe on the TV next week saying how they laid HF to lose £100m in £50 bets.  I think the interesting thing is the last line in your post Neil.  Surely if there are so many arbers then HF should become very weak in the Betfair market today yet it isn't.  By my reading of the BF charts he has been layed for about £20k today all at 3.55/3.6.  Who has come out of the woodwork today wanting £20k on the horse?  Hills are the only people I can think of that might want to do that today......very weird as simple economics would suggest that the smart thing to do if you were an arber today would be to lay £2k of Hurrican Fly early then bet it back later when all the arbers are trying to lay the horse at any cost for their free bet.  Certainly would have more respect for someone that had actually thought that through than someone walking around 20 shops to get a grand at 3/1 with Hills.

Fair point - although we have a lot more than a grand on

The current betfair market is of course 'anti-post' yet Hills are NRNB, Hurricane will be a lot shorter in the 'day-of-race' market.

For the record, although I fully understand the view and arguments against arbers, we are an extremely well organised team and offer an excellent service to clients.

What I don't quite get is the ignorance of some pretty well thought of 'gamblers/punters' (two completely different sets of people imo) as to what today's arbing is about.

The views are quite prehistoric.  We operate in a market place and have an opinion on where markets may or may not go.  The complaint of "arbers spoiling it for the good guys' is not only dated, its pretty weak and coming from people who are surprisingly clueless about where professional arbers are today.

[tikay]

Though, if Fred is our notional gambler, I assume a savvy gambler would be looking to take advantage of as many of these free equity opportunities as possible, too?

Yes, but as Fred is discovering, being a winning punterer means you get resticted and have difficulty getting bets on.

Free bets/enhanced odds/special offers are not available to winners, just ice creams.

Hmm, not so sure. I get restricted on Hills all time, but was able to get £20 on my account, but £30 on the wifes.

Is not the point of Fred, maximising value. I think its fair to say we have placed several bets that are just placed because they are "ricks", not because we fancied the outcome per se, surely this is exploiting value rather than gambling.

Anything that makes money off the bookies and is highlighted by Fred members should qualify, imho. Unless it is a ram raid of c.

the fly offer today was available to accounts that are not usually laid a bet of any kind

BadBeat made a very interestring Post about this later, & I agree with some of it, though not all. Like an Online Poker Room, any Online Bookie wants to get people to open & use their Site, get 100 to do that, & x% stay on site. Standard reactivation stuff. 

What I cant grasp at all is why it would be available to Restricted Accounts? I have no issue at all with being restricted, but they either want our Business or they don't. Why offer it to folks whose Business they don't (usually) want?

[action man]

how is long run gonna improve from last year in the weakest GC for years? it took Kauto star to produce a horse that has regained the gold cup. Hits too many fences and wont get away with it this year with sir des champs and bobs worth, happy to lay fred

id actually have captain chris above it in my list

[tikay]

The three test series in New Zealand begins this week

The first Test is down south in Dunedin. Lovely verdant ground, but tricky conditions. Blows a gale, favourable to seamers

The second test is in Wellington (the Basin Reserve is basically the middle of a giant roundabout!), Blows a gale and seamer friendly

The third test is in Auckland. On a strip of concrete at a rugby ground

Here's Dunedin. Beautiful

Click to see full-size image.

and the Basin Reserve

Click to see full-size image.

So, to opportunities

Injuries allowing, England will go through this series with

Anderson and Finn opening up

Broad as third seamer

Swann as stock bowler

The first two grounds suit swing, and in Anderson England have the finest practicioner of the art.

Added to that New Zealand are vulnerable at 1-3 with a mixture of callow youth and below Test Class players..the batting talent comes in with Williamson, Taylor and McCullum at 4-6

So, this should be a virtual match between Anderson and Finn

Broad is not of the same quality, is injury prone and if he doesn't perform Onions (who does suit the conditions) may replace him

Swann is a stock bowler on these pitches


If we look at the market

www.oddschecker.com/cricket/new-zealand-v-england/test-series/new-zealand-england-tests/top-england-bowler

We can get over 2-1 Anderson who is

a) at his peak
b) in suitable conditions
c) less injury prone than his team-mates

Last tour, 2008, it was great to watch Anderson make the ball talk, more so than he can do in any other Test Country

He is an outstanding betting proposition. His correct price should be 6/4 and below. Finn is a terrific bowler, and going to be the best around on a 3 year view but he's not a favourite over Anderson

Here is some background on Anderson's progress towards Botham's English test record http://www.espncricinfo.com/new-zealand-v-england-2013/content/story/605518.html

"Anderson has Botham's English Test record of 383 wickets in his sights. He needs another 96 to overtake the mark. There is a strong chance of him claiming the 12 he requires for 300 during the forthcoming series against New Zealand. If he averages four wickets per Test (marginally higher than his current ratio of 3.74, although that has risen to 3.96 since his recall in 2008) during the 22 matches scheduled from now until August 2014 he will be very close. "

Recommend £40 Anderson top English bowler in the forthcoming series 9/4 Coral/Hills

 

Yikes, you do know how to win me over Tighty, I love that. And a 4 Test Series means, hopefully, we get a good sweat.

Be good to see gherkin back here, too, & get his thoughts on any available value in the Series.

Anyway, for now, we have £40 @ 9/4, William Hill, (7/4 in most spots, happy days), Anderson Top England Series Bowler Bloke v New Zealand.

ON

05 Mar 2013 - New Zealand v England - England Top Series Bowler - Series Top Bowler

Tip ItJames Anderson @ 9/4

Stake : £40.00
Estimated Returns : £130.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000286/F

[The Camel]

Definitely agree with you if it was for new customers only Red. That would be a great price to pay to aquire new accounts. The trouble for Hills is that most people taking the offer are either existing accounts, many of whom will be arbers, some of whom will be dormant customers rembering their login-details or their account number. It's really hard to measure how much of that is good business. In the shops you might reckon that 50% of activity is just arbers.

 That was my idea on the rugby thing Keith. I thought it was genuis at the time. I think 5 people got on as none of the other hundred or so who rang knew anything about rugby.

 On all of these it's NRNB so if Dynaste goes for the other race you are Ok.

 It's obviously free money to bet all of these and arb and it may be long-term better ev to take them and keep them, if we assume that Betfair is always right.

 Having said all that, if there was no Betfair I wouldn't walk more than 300 yards to a shop to bet either of these two.

 Interesting that HF has remained very strong on Betfair all day considering how many arbers have got on.

Obviously you are correct but I think it is almost certainly a +EV move for Hills.  To be honest I am amazed more firms dont lead with price marketing like this as it is smart and cost effective.  Even things like it being mentioned on this thread have value for Hills and they also will no doubt get the opportunity to have that wanker Graham Sharpe on the TV next week saying how they laid HF to lose £100m in £50 bets.  I think the interesting thing is the last line in your post Neil.  Surely if there are so many arbers then HF should become very weak in the Betfair market today yet it isn't.  By my reading of the BF charts he has been layed for about £20k today all at 3.55/3.6.  Who has come out of the woodwork today wanting £20k on the horse?  Hills are the only people I can think of that might want to do that today......very weird as simple economics would suggest that the smart thing to do if you were an arber today would be to lay £2k of Hurrican Fly early then bet it back later when all the arbers are trying to lay the horse at any cost for their free bet.  Certainly would have more respect for someone that had actually thought that through than someone walking around 20 shops to get a grand at 3/1 with Hills.

Fair point - although we have a lot more than a grand on

The current betfair market is of course 'anti-post' yet Hills are NRNB, Hurricane will be a lot shorter in the 'day-of-race' market.

For the record, although I fully understand the view and arguments against arbers, we are an extremely well organised team and offer an excellent service to clients.

What I don't quite get is the ignorance of some pretty well thought of 'gamblers/punters' (two completely different sets of people imo) as to what today's arbing is about.

The views are quite prehistoric.  We operate in a market place and have an opinion on where markets may or may not go.  The complaint of "arbers spoiling it for the good guys' is not only dated, its pretty weak and coming from people who are surprisingly clueless about where professional arbers are today.

The enemies of the good guys in order.

1. Betfair
2. Arbers
3. Bookmakers

With healthy gaps between them.

I was a great deal more profitable punter pre Betfair, despite being a lot less clued up.

And I never had an account closed or restricted.

[tikay]

I'll take The Fly bet np's.

Ofc it should go down on the overall P&L.  Free bets, deposit bonuses, misclicks, rakeback(?), enhanced odds, its all part of it.

Noted, Simon.

Now there is a bag of squiggly worms if ever I saw one.

Again, I'm not fussed, as long as the Accounts have integrity, & reflect the actualite.

But "misclicks", there's a thing......

I generally absorb misclicks off-thread, & quite happy to be responsible for my mistakes, like a proper grown-up should. But the Misclick Account is tons in profit - witness the Kaymer/Kuchar debacle.

If I were betting entirely on my own Account, & not on Fred, I'd have to take the rough with the smooth.

Most of my misclicks don't get seen, either, I just try & reverse them, privately, but others I let run & stand the consequences.

[Chompy]

Yikes, there's a 'filthy' on the thread!

Tbh, I have no problem with arbers David, but isn't it ultimately a bit of a soulless pursuit? Do many people mistake you for Rob Garfield?

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/regular-season-mvp

Suggesting a max bet on Lebron James to be regular season MVP 7/4 with Bwin

Guy is absolutely killing it and it looks pretty clear just from looking at the odds that Bwin have made a mistake in the odds.

MVP looks like its basically between Lebron and Kevin Durant, the edge we have is that Miami are almost dead certs to win their conference whereas OKC aren't. This will mean that LBJ is alot more likely to be awarded the MVP award.

Lebron is averaging 27points 7assists and 8 rebounds per game and is basically carrying Miami single handedly.

Durant is averaging 29points 4.5assists and 7.5 rebounds per game but has a quality player like Westbrook playing amazing aswell so he isn't carrying his team as much as Lebron is.

Suggest maximum Lebron James Regular Season MVP 7/4 Bwin

Thanks Tom.

I take that as a Tom Max, not a Fred Max, & we have gone for £40. BWin seem to have the Durant & LeBron prices back to front.

When does the season finish, & when will the MVP be selected?

£40 @ 7/4, BWin, James LeBron, MVP.

ON

Type of bet
Bet slip ID
Date
Total stake
Possible payout
Single bet
1STHN7BFYU
2/12/2013 9:39 AM
40.00 GBP
110.00 GBP
Date   Event  Bet  Pick  Result  Odds 
6/1/2013 12:00:00 AM    NBA NBA MVP 2012-2013  Outright winner  James  ?  7/4 

Just thought i'ld flag this open bet as Lebron is now very short on betfair - and wondered if Tom or anyone else would like to comment on the merits of a partial greening - maybe to cover our stake and give us a freeroll ?

Obviously a great bet - just wondered what those in the know would consider the risks to be ?  injury etc ?

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/basketball/market?id=1.107273154&exp=e

Thanks for bringing that up Mr Simon, looked a good point to me.

Since then, Mr Kimber has suggested we ought to stand our ground.

Me? I have no idea.

If this were my private off-thread betting, yes, I'd do some greening, along the lines you suggested. I'm a nit, & little & often does me nicely.  A bet to nothing is right up there with an unopened newspaper & a pot of proper tea (tea-strainer, the works) in the morning, one of life's lovely little things.

[redarmi]

The only thing I have against arbers really is that they often beat me to the price.

[tikay]

so shrewd by hills offering the price it should be and making it sound like a sick offer

I'm not qualified to enter that debate as to value or not Rick, but I've been reading your pre-Cheltenham plans & mounting excitement, proper kid on Christmas morning stuff, & I really hope you have a grand week. 

[Nico29]

Yikes, there's a 'filthy' on the thread!

Tbh, I have no problem with arbers David, but isn't it ultimately a bit of a soulless pursuit? Do many people mistake you for Rob Garfield?

Dave is an absolute legend, and is far too cheery to be confused with Rob-I like Rob too obv, just he looks as miserable as I do norm.

Anyway chomps can you start doing some footy research please, I need some more random player to score bets, they'll win even if they don't you know.

[Karabiner]

@ Dave M. Is the placement service on a "no win no fee" basis?

I would like to add that I'm only asking this out of genuine curiosity as I rarely bet over £200 on a single event.

[KarmaDope]

Potentially, what is unique about this current test mach?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/scorecard/88362