Now 6 deaths in Washington.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/02/coronavirus-live-updates/ That proves it has been spreading for a lot longer in the USA than we knew about.   Financial markets wont like that imo when they catch up with it shortly, they boomed up today over there.

The hospitalization rate of this means we need to take severe measures to control the spread

https://www.mail.com/int/scitech/health/9768860-italys-health-system-limit-virus-struck-lombardy.html#.1258-stage-hero1-1

"The coronavirus outbreak in northern Italy has so overwhelmed the public health system there that officials are taking extraordinary measures to care for the sick, seeking to bring doctors out of retirement and accelerate graduation dates for nursing students."

The throwaway comments that this is like the flu are laughably ignorant.   China has put cities and their economy on complete lockdown, they are not doing that for the fecking flu.  There is no flu season that has ever caused hospital overflow like this despite going through large chunks of the population.  Italy has 41 deaths already and it takes 2-3 weeks to die from this thing.  How many people were infected in Italy 3 weeks ago?  Even the lowest conservative death rates quoted put it at 1%+ which is an order of huge magnitude worse than than the flu.

The time to act for the UK is now when it comes to controlling the spread. A lot of other countries have been late and inadequate with their measures and it is showing.    I take the Yes rally on Betfair to be on the chances of it going ahead behind closed doors when everything is announced tomorrow.  Perhaps it's for political reasons if it goes ahead unchanged but the Government knows the truth about what this is going to do to the NHS if allowed to spread at full pace.

Apparently cobra meeting is over and plan unveiled tomorrow.  Just read on another forum.  If that’s the case inside info definitely
out there now.

Yes really shortening now, wonder if there is anyone with inside info trading this market.

Virus has fked my equity portfolio and now gonna take a piece of my Betfair account.  On no for 3.52 avg odds

Will be the loudest roar ever on the off of the first race if it goes ahead

Whoever decided to run this market at Betfair was a genius anyway, has fascinated everyone for a week.  

It appears very likely the virus is widespread to a much larger degree than reported in Washington

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233970271318503426

"The team at the
@seattleflustudy
 have sequenced the genome the #COVID19 community case reported yesterday from Snohomish County, WA, and have posted the sequence publicly to http://gisaid.org. There are some enormous implications here.

This case, WA2, is on a branch in the evolutionary tree that descends directly from WA1, the first reported case in the USA sampled Jan 19, also from Snohomish County, viewable here

This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks. 3/9"

The growth in the UK is now explosive and uncontrolled.   The comparison with the flu which I read in the Racing Post article is irresponsible and laughably wide of the mark Wuhan data linked earlier ITT disproves any death and hospitalization rate remotely similar to the flu.  less than 1 in 100,000 adults under 40 die of the flu, Coronavirus data has deaths in that group of 200 in 100,000.  An overall death rate of 4.3% and Hospitilisation of 17% is nasty and and potentially crippling for the NHS.

The good news is that growth in hot countries continues to be extremely slow.  Countries which had a lot of inbound from China and received early transmission.  Strong containment is also working.  I fully expect strong containment measures from the Cobra meeting tomorrow.  Keep the load on the NHS as low as possible until Summer arrives and we can get to a vaccine.  Allowing mass gatherings of people at this point is irresponsible and incompetent and I believe we will see similar measures to other counties here. 

All these actions while trains, planes, offices, cafes, restaurants etc etc are open just seem too stupid - is there another point I've missed ?

It’s much less disruption to call off a sporting event than to close the underground so they do that as a starting point.

Malaysia, Vietnam, Macau all showing no growth in Coronavirus cases.  They are places that “should” be but are warm temp so I take it as logical that covid 19 might well be neutralised by the spring/summer in Europe. Just about keeping the spread down until then.

France has banned indoor gatherings of more than 5000 people.  This includes the half-marathon coming on Sunday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51690657

Read my posts. I actually live  in China.   It’s not you cannot go into a shop without a mask , you cannot be in public without a mask .  I wish I could find the time to say how it is here .  China will become the safest place due to the restrictions they put in place earlier when they were being ignored by the west .  I repeat only China could have contained this virus how they did with total lockdown

Yes and it appears to be working.  There is no chance somewhere like the UK or the USA could carry out such restrictions though.

You talk about warm weather killing the virus.  It is actually said it takes heat , sunlight and humidity to kill it .  For us in China that is usually May  for that to happen .   I honestly think  the sign when the government will announce its over officially over  it will be when schools are allowed to open . Currently here is 16 th March.  Hong Kong & J.apan is 20th April . Go figure

I read some discussion earlier suggesting it's definitely struggling in the hot countries.  It does not appear to be spreading strongly in Singapore and Thailand for two.  Whenever the vaccine comes it will be dead but the Summer could make it much much less of a problem first.  Global warming might have a use after all!

Some guy in America here who thinks he has it (and has travelled to a high risk country).  Doctors agreed but officials refuse to test him and sent him away to do what he wants

https://www.reddit.com/r/nyc/comments/fayko1/my_covid19_story_brooklyn/

More cases in the UK, including one which was contracted here and not abroad.  A GP might test positive in Surrey who has been seeing patients all week. https://news.sky.com/story/first-case-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-wales-and-two-more-in-england-11945201

Cobra meeting on Monday.  The fates of various sporting events could well be decided then. https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/health-and-care/illnesstreatments/news/110192/boris-johnson-chair-emergency-cobra-meeting

I don't know the finances, but isn't running Cheltenham behind closed doors as likely as cancelling?  Presumably levy + sponsorship + TV > prize money.  

I see that as the reason racing going ahead is still a favourite at this point tbh.  

It's what they did in the Europa League on Thursday with the Italian teams for one.

You have less hobbies than me, Jez

We do share one, smashing casinos.   I think I very briefly met you or your father on Ladbrokes poker cruise 1 or 2.  2 I think it was, a long time ago.   Do you get cashout values for antepost Cheltenham bets?

Major E-Sports event cancelled for the public in Poland (still going ahead as a stream).  The Government ordered it off, they don't even have a confirmed case in Poland yet.

https://win.gg/news/3944/all-iem-katowice-tickets-cancelled-amid-coronavirus-concerns

Amazon tells employees to pause nonessential travel in U.S. due to coronavirus

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/amazon-pauses-non-essential-travel-in-us-due-to-coronavirus.html

Given the long latency period reported for Covid 19 this is looking bad now.  It won't be a horse racing decision regarding Cheltenham, it will be a Government one.  They cannot take the risk of upping the spread of this thing.

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/coronavirus-study-incubation-period/.

"A study by Chinese researchers found that the Wuhan coronavirus incubation period can be up to 24 days, contrary to the previously believed 14 days."

The football world and Coronavirus

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51673076

"Newcastle and West Ham have banned handshakes at their training grounds in an attempt to stop the virus' spread."

I have emptied my betfair account doubling down on my Cheltenham festival bet, after all I won't need any money on betfair if Cheltenham is abandoned.  Am gambling that Dom Cummings puts looking hard above public safety.

I also doubled down yesterday on it not going ahead when the price flicked back out to 3.35 briefly.  Clearly there is a chance both ways but the market was comically mispriced when it opened and is only now starting to reflect reality as people have wised up.  As much as that was a good bet., I am not liking the situation that is unfolding.  A lot of people have and are going to die/get ill plus my equities have taken a brutal hammering this week, far more than the monkey I might profit from this lol market.

The virus could well struggle in warm weather.  Perhaps we will get some good data on that now countries with tropical climates are infected.  Cold Europe with our mass crowds is not in a good spot right now.  If you believe the Chinese data then infections are falling there and the population are being highly controlled.  You can't even go into a shop without a mask on apparently.  That level of control is not possible here but the strategy of control the spread until a vaccine arrives is all that can be done.   Hospitalisation rates of 15-20% would be crippling for the NHS if it keeps spreading.  How far into the outbreak did China go on lockdown?  We are already infected and have not even bothered yet so brace yourselves.  I saw Moody's rated this as 40% chance of pandemic yesterday.  Complete clowns.

Stocks are getting THRASHED